Chris24601

So much This! For perspective, I do have a background in English Lit and have even studied screenwriting. For me, Dany going off the rails like this in the 11th hour was as subtle as a freight train. That said, I can see why people would miss it in the moment. It’s why I mentioned it felt like a psychology experiment. Because Dany’s arc plays on the dark side of the power/revenge fantasy. Who hasn’t, after hearing about the latest atrocity on the news, wished they had the power to go in there and make the perpetrators pay? To go Fire & Blood on the wicked? That’s basically the same sorta arc that makes characters like Deadpool so popular. The asshole victims give you a reason to feel the horrible fates (in many cases vastly disproportionate to the crime... see the What Measure is a Mook trope) inflicted upon them are justified, even written for laughs (see the Golden Company Captain getting wrecked here... or Deadpool killing a guy with a Zamboni). Getting vicarious revenge on the wicked feels good... it’s seductive. It’s Superman without the moral restraints. But look at the other key message in this very same episode; even as Dany is consumed by her need to make these people who would not love her pay... Sandor Clegane pulls Arya back from the brink... keeps her from following down the path he and Dany have lost themselves to. Look at the disappointment that Cersei wasn’t made to suffer more. She’s not only been removed from power, but she died in horrific circumstances wishing for her baby to live. But that’s not good enough. She needed to suffer more. And in that... you can understand WHY Dany burned them all. The city surrendering with minimal resistance wasn’t good enough. They needed to suffer more... so she made them suffer as she felt they deserved. Dany is the dark mirror held up to everyone who just wishes “they” could be made to pay. We don’t want to think we have THAT in us... but how many cheered her on when she crucified and burned alive men without caring about actual innocence or guilt? How many would follow someone who offered you the chance to make “them” pay? From a psychological perspective, I think the massive “I hate this!” reaction is entirely predictable and even intended. It’s putting the audience in Jon and Tyrion’s shoes... wanting to believe the best about Dany despite all the evidence, then confronted with the worst. You don’t want to believe you’ve so misjudged this person you’ve followed for so long. And I think that’s the point. The show wants you to question your devotion to leaders who preach revenge. To question our own need for revenge (isn’t it enough that Cersei is dead and out of power?). To ask us to be Arya... who turns away from revenge and in so doing saves herself... and not Jaime who, for all his efforts, couldn’t overcome the poison in his life. Or even, dim as he can be sometimes, to be Jon, who tries (however futily) to stop the violence being committed against the innocents there (not out of revenge on the people perpetrating it... he pulled the one Northman off the girl and tried to get him stop what he was doing and only killed him when he attacked Jon... but to actually save the victims). Or to be Varys, who sees a way that doesn’t end in more deaths than the Hiroshima bomb and risks his life to try and that come to pass using words not blades. GRRM is a man who registered as a conscientious objector rather than serve in war or run away/dodge the draft. Dany the great benevolent conqueror was NEVER going to be the ending for a man with convictions like that. People who find ways make peace and who try to save others, who stumble and fall but keep trying to the right thing are his heroes.

Its an element of Jungian psychology that manifests itself often in fiction because Jungian archetypes are ideal fodder for creating interpersonal conflicts. To really understand it, you have to start from the ideal archetype of this kind... the King (or True King to make it easier to distinguish). Other really common archetypes are the Lover (best represented in the show by Sansa), the Magician (best represented by Bran) and the Warrior (Arya... notice the trend?) and those other three are also wrapped up how the True King becomes actualized in basically the ways Sansa, Bran and Arya have interacted with Jon... which is why it was so easy to predict he'd end up the king while Dany would fail for want of those interactions. Anyway, each of the Archetypes is based on a balance... The King provides order and stability to those under him and encourages their growth (the terms Ordered and Generative are often used as shorthand). And when that archetype falls out of balance it is said to become a Shadow Archetype... a Shadow King in this case. Generally each archtype can swing out of balance in two directions based on a particular weakness the archetype is vulnerable to. In the King's case, that weakness is their self-confidence, their belief in themselves. The Shadow King is insecure in their power and so veers in one of two directions; the Impotent King surrenders that power to others (Jon) and the Tyrant masks that insecurity with grand displays of power and titles to make sure everyone knows they're in charge (Dany). Generally speaking, when employing these archetypes and their shadows in fiction the story will present a protagonist who falls short of the balance in one way or the other (but typically the more passive option of the two for any archetype) and then set them up with an antagonist who is the OPPOSITE type to cause them to grow into the properly balanced archetype in the course of the story. I've been predicting Dany going Tyrant for a while now specifically because; A) Jon was the more passive of the imperfect king types. B) the True King is typically realized by interactions with The Lover (provides the initial motivation and passion to act. Jon was ready to run away until Sansa turned up and convinced him to fight for the North), The Magician (who provides key, often hidden, knowledge to help the King fully know himself... Jon's true heritage in this case) and the Warrior (who reminds the king of his duty to his people and, often, to his family... Arya). Dany lacked interactions with similar figures. C) This show has further always run on reverses. Jon starting on the outs with the Starks and surrendering his power means by the end he'll have come around to appreciating the Starks and reclaiming his power. Likewise, Happy Jon and Dany (and Dany feeling all superior basking in the awe and a bit of terror she instilled) at the start meant it was 100% going to be the two as enemies by the end and Dany recognized as queen at the start means she'd be overthrown by the end. That's a brief overview, but hopefully it helped.

This didn't come from nowhere. If it had I wouldn't have been able to discuss the whole Shadow King aspect for weeks now and call up numerous references across the seasons hinting to this. And I've skirted around it in previous threads because calling it by its name would have instantly put people off, but as I mentioned previously, there are two types of Shadow King; Jon has been one type; the Impotent King (but in seeing the slaughter is going to be moved to take up the role of True King because while he doesn't WANT to be king, he sees now that he NEEDS to be in order to protect people from things like this happening), but I'd only ever called Dany by the generic Shadow King title, not name for the specific manifestation... The Tyrant. Dany has always been the Tyrant. She's fought it for years, but its always been where her story was headed. And the Tyrant masks their insecurity in their own power with grandiose titles and, most importantly, massive displays of power meant to instill terror. From the moment Dany said "Let it be Fear" everyone in King's Landing was her target. The surrender just meant she couldn't even pretend to mask it. The Galactic Empire needed Alderaan, one of the Core Worlds of the galaxy, to burn as a sign of their unbridled power. They needed everyone under their thumb too terrified to even dare resist them. Kings Landing was Dany's Alderaan. The biggest target on the map wiped out in maybe an hour. If only 10% of the city's population were killed we're looking at a death toll in the range of a HUNDRED THOUSAND people who had already surrendered. Does anyone think it was limited to just 10%? 25%? 50%? If she can't be loved, she's decided to be so feared that no one will ever dare question her authority... or that of her masked stormtroopers in black armor who slaughter surrendered people and innocents on her command or of her horde of murderous pillaging and raping horsemen as she burns innocents alive from the back of a great black dragon. How much more crystal clear does it need to be? GRRM gave this ending to D&D to write their show with and its crystal clear in retrospect... the entire point of Dany's arc has been to see the character arc of THE VILLAIN going from Nobody to Nightmare right alongside the protagonists... disguised by sympathetic moments and asshole victims at first, but becoming ever more obvious as the seasons wore on. Let's not forget that her first victim was a slave who killed her master and that Dany had her burned alive. Everything she's ever done since has been about acquiring the power she'd need to conquer a land she'd never set foot in her life because she felt it was owed to her. It honestly feels like a giant psychology experiment... how hard would it be to get the audience to root for the villain? How long would they keep defending her even as her actions got even more extreme? And of the characters in the show, Sansa was the one who saw it clearly and decided to do something about it. Then again, she's been the one in closest regular vicinity to psychopaths. She learned to recognize the signs. Dany had already ignored her suggestion to rest the troops. Rhaeghal and Missandie would have died anyway. Jon would have still refused her sexual advances. "Let it be Fear" would have still been Dany's command. The ONLY thing Sansa telling Tyrion changed was giving Varys the feeling he had an option other a woman teetering on the edge of unending rage. Now its left to Jon, Arya and Tyrion to find a way to stop the Tyrant before its too late.

The yellow is all secondary fires... stuff the wildfire set on fire (ships being mostly wood with canvas sails and ropes for rigging. Yeah, I don't see people confusing the two if they're actually present for the destruction. Basically you'd need zero survivors screaming about green fire to really pass it off as dragonfire. Another significant difference is that Wildfire is explosive while dragonfire just burns. There's no shockwave from dragonfire; it doesn't do things like hurl pieces of the target hundreds of feet. They may not have modern forensics, but even a layman could tell the difference between "this got blown apart" and "this got melted into slag." Doesn't mean Cersei wouldn't try it as a last resort to just poison the well on Dany, just that anyone who really wanted to examine things would see it was a setup. The big question in that case would be "how many would care?" How many would be more than ready to believe the worst about the Dragon Queen and her army of foreign invaders? I'm more inclined to think Cersei's just flat out miscalculated. She thinks her scorpions give her the advantage and she's just been trying to goad Dany into something that will get her killed and maybe even cast Cersei as the hero who defeated the Dragon Queen. But I think she has completely underestimated the degree of Fire and Blood Dany is still capable of bringing and that will be part of her undoing.

Eight HOURS? I think you’re less than informed about the physiological impacts of combat. The Battle at Winterfell was less than the episode’s runtime (the events probably occurred in close to real time actually) or there wouldn’t be a human left alive. Even short duration combat is extremely exhausting even for those trained for it. There’s a reason boxing and mixed martial arts use 3-5 minute rounds with 1 minute rests between. Real hand-to-hand fombat is like running all out, you can do it for a few minutes at a time and adrenaline can buy you a bit more, then you need to stop to catch your breath for a minute after that or you’re going to fall over and not get back up. Side-bar: that’s one reason the Army of the Dead was so terrifying... they literally do not get tired. They just keep coming at full strength until you stop them or they’ve killed you. They are to humans what humans are to just about every other species on Earth (see “Pursuit Predation” for why humans are basically the Terminators of the animal kingdom). /Side-bar. An hour long battle is basically like going fifteen rounds in a boxing ring. Even for professional boxers, a twelve round bout takes 2-3 WEEKS to recover from and that’s with optimal conditions (marathons take a similar amount of time to rebound from... you’re moving around soon enough, but your endurance and immune system don’t fully come back after that level of nutrient depletion without a couple weeks of lighter activity). Eight hours of combat would be fighting eight fifteen round matches in a row. There’s not a professional fighter on earth who could survive that (that’s the sort of punishment that, if the person taking those hits was somehow still alive, would takes months to years of physical therapy to recover from). Marching is a comparative cakewalk (Humans are built for it evolutionarily speaking). 10 miles/16 km a day (which is about what medieval armies managed) can be maintained for weeks or months without significantly impacting performance. But marching IS taxing enough to keep those troops from getting the type of post-battle rest they need to recover their fighting strength. Her troops are going to arrive about as depleted as they were before they started marching and will be nowhere near the fighting strength they’d have if they’d even rested a couple of weeks before heading out first. Further, the wounds everyone was sporting throughout the Winterfell portions of the episode were still fresh. Arya still had a fresh shiner as she left with the Hound. That means the war council was just DAYS after the battle... probably the morning after the funeral/wake/party. So Sansa was 100% dead-on right to point out the troops needed to recover (she’s seen the after effects before from the Battle of the Bastards) and Dany was an obsessive sociopath for demanding they march to get her Throne NOW! Dany’s that person who always screws up what they’re working on because they keep trying to cut corners to get to the end. The end result is they end up having to spend more time, effort and money than if they’d just done the job the right way in the first place. Dany’s rush to get the Throne is what has doomed her to either being the monster everyone fears or just flat-out losing to Cersei. It’s the same impatience that’s delivered her setback after setback throughout the series. She’s been able power through it up to now Because Dragons, but technology marches on so now something exists that’s removed that edge and we start to see the disadvantages of a force composed primarily of light cavalry and light infantry that were largely invisible when fighting similar forces and with the cover of what amounts to a modern day ground attack craft like the A-10 or AC-130.

The Republic of Venice outlasted a ton of monarchies surrounding it for more than a thousand years. That said, I’m expecting King Jon/Aegon is endgame in this particular story. I think he’ll go back North and rule from Winterfell though so he can have Bran and Sam and Sansa on his small council more easily. The story began with a King coming to Winterfell and pulling all the Starks apart as a result; proper story symmetry suggests the ending will be The King coming to Winterfell to reunite all the Starks.

Drive to do your job well is one thing; the lust to rule over others is not something praiseworthy. Particularly despicable in history were those who claimed it was “for their own good.” The show may stumble with it, but I think the intention with Jon is that while he doesn’t seek power, when he has it, he tries to do his best for his people. There’s a theory of kingship that’s somewhat related to the Wildling’s view of kings that likens them to a watchmen. When you need them, you really need them, but when you don’t, the kingdom is better off if they just walk the streets announcing all is well. Jon fits that ideal pretty closely. When you need him, he’ll give his life to protect the Realm, but he’s not interested in seizing any more power for himself in the meantime. It’s also worth considering who everyone’s got for advisors. Jon’s got Davos for his Hand and you couldn’t ask for better there. If he brings in family, Sansa’s pretty good at day-to-castle management, Bran makes Varys’ spy network look like amateur hour (Little Birds everywhere and everywhen) and Arya’s a Faceless Man. Sam’s got more common sense than the entire Maester leadership (just don’t have him fight for you). Brienne would make a heck of a King’s Guard commander. If even half of those sat on Jon’s Small Council, he’d do fine. And if King’s Landing ends up gutted like Harrenhal, there’s no reason for Jon to even rule from there... he could choose to rule from say, the Riverlands or even Winterfell for that matter. Dany’s pretty much blinded by her ambition, but, as evidenced by her abject refusal to deal with a succession plan when there was a very real chance of her dying in battle, she hasn’t really thought at all about what she’s going to do once she has the Throne beyond platitudes (essentially repeating her mistakes in Essos where she blew through on her righteous crusade without any plan for what came afterwards). Worse, her advisor pool has been gutted. Jorah and Missandie are dead. Greyworm doesn’t want to stick around once Dany has the Throne (I think, if he survives the next two episodes, that he’s headed for Naath to honor his promise to Missandie to protect it in her memory). Varys is already plotting her downfall. That leaves her with Tyrion; who’s loyalty is divided between Dany and trying to do everything possible to keep Jaime and even Cersei (and her child) alive somehow. Even if Dany wins, she’s going to have to rebuild her advisory pool from basically scratch; which, in terms of story structure, is a pretty sure sign she’s going down hard because there’s just no time to introduce them (because it’s sure not going to be Sansa or Sam or Arya or Brienne... probably not Davos either). Jon’s not going be hooking up with her; he tried, but she’s his aunt and he can’t unremember that... and the last thing you want to close on is Dany sitting alone in a bombed out throne room with, maybe, Tyrion beside her. By contrast, King Jon returning home to Winterfell with Davos and Arya to find Sansa, Bran, Brienne, Pod, Sam and Gilly (maybe even Tormund and Ghost if the winter storms haven’t passed yet) waiting for them is exactly the sort of denument you’d expect of such an epic (i.e. end where you begin to contrast how you’ve been changed). Likewise, presuming Dany’s fate is to die, I fully expect someone to scatter her ashes (even if she’s normally the Unburnt, ashes feels more appropriate) at the site where the dragons were hatched in the Great Grass Sea; perhaps finding a clutch of dragon eggs that Drogon had laid there while he was wild and free to similarly come full circle.

To be fair, we don’t know how much of this is D&D and how much is what GRRM outlined to them as the endgame. As I mentioned previously, GRRM’s views on war and conquest probably dictated Dany ultimately becoming a villain from the start. Likewise, if the Mad King of the show was anything like the books, nuking King’s Landing was probably always in the cards too; even if Cersei wasn’t in charge because of some book character or another being there instead. In light of the Night King’s demise in episode three, I’ve been rethinking the symbolism of the s8 teaser with the map. At first it seemed to be depicting a great clash of fire and ice, but in retrospect the teaser was two parts... the first was Ice sweeping down from the North, but the second half was fire consuming the South (particularly the Lannister lion at King’s Landing). I think that’s actually the season in a nutshell. The “Song of Ice and Fire” isn’t a single event, it’s two sequential events where The Prince Who Was Promised and his allies faces first Ice (the Night King) and then Fire (Dany)... which would account for the atypical order (Fire & Ice is more typical... unless it’s referring to the order of events like it would be here). If that’s how it’s to go then, yes, I totally believe a tens of thousands plus body count at King’s Landing could happen. We’ve never actually see Dany and Drogon fully unchained. She’s been counseled to hold back for so long now that I think we’re going to be utterly shocked at what Drogon can actually do when Dany just doesn’t care about collateral damage anymore (though I think we got a hint with undead Viserion’s continual stream of flame against The Wall at the end of last season). Point of order. Annulments, at least if based on the Catholic Church variety, do NOT bastardize the children of the annulled marriage. The children are legitimate (which means “legal”) because the marriage was presumed legitimate at the time they were born. Basically, it’s akin to recognizing a bastard as a genuine heir (see Gendry in this episode) only automatic instead of requiring the authority of the crown. Therefore the order of inheritance would remain unchanged. The children of Rhaegar’s first wife would have remained legitimate and been ahead of Jon in line of succession if they hadn’t been murdered.

You know, when belligerents don’t try to minimize the number of innocent people they kill, they call that a war crime. Dany is so focused on the trappings of the Throne and titles that she’s willing to burn innocents alive to get them. That’s never going to be an okay thing to do. As has already been mentioned, Dorne has already declared for her. The North may not like it, but they’ve declared for her. The Vale, because of Sansa, has declared for her. The Iron Islands, retaken by Yara, have declared for her. The only living Baratheon will declare for her. There’s a power vacuum in the Reach and Lord Bronn would declare for her. It’s a small step down to the Riverlands where they could take back that land for Lord Edmure Tully or whoever is next in line. As stated previously, The capitol’s only true industry is government. It doesn’t have the crop lands or other material resources to sustain itself. It relies on the taxes and resources of the rest of the Seven Kingdoms to support it. Choke that out (now that the existential crisis of the Night King has passed) and you don’t have to invade King’s Landing at all... it’ll just take longer. Meanwhile, Euron’s fleet provides plenty of valid military targets (nighttime hit-and-runs with Drogon and covert raids like those Theon pulled in 8x01 being ideal) and further isolates the ability of the capitol to replenish itself. * * * * But Dany’s haste in wanting to crush Cersei ASAP got another dragon killed and now she’s in the same “lash out” mode she always gets into when she suffers a reversal... and Dany’s lash out mode always veers in the direction of war crimes and infliction of terror (see crucifying random members of a social group rather than seeking out those actually guity, see throwing a man whose guilt or innocence she didn’t care about to her dragons after the Harpies murdered Selmy, see her first instinct when the Masters launched a rebellion being to burn cities full of innocents to ash). When D&D said Dany forgot about the Iron Fleet I didn’t take it to mean “Dur... who’s Euron?”, but rather that her single-minded focus on the Throne led her to not considering the ways the Iron Fleet could be a threat... like the idea that they could be fitted with upscaled Scorpions. Basically the same single-minded focus that discounted waiting to hear from her actual commanders what sort of time they needed to get the troops reasonably prepared for a new campaign and to stop to figure out how fresh troops from a Dorne that had just declared for her can adjust the equation of war. Both of those are legitimate reasons to hit pause. Yes, ceding the initiative can be a thing, but it’s not that big a deal when you’re the one on offense. Within reason, you’re always going to be the one who determines the time and place of engagement. You’re talking about a fresh force of troops from a Kingdom as populous as the entire North on an opposing front to where Dany’s present forces were and the difference between your already half-strength forces fighting tired or fighting fresh. That underlying desperation to seize the Throne (likely underscored by her fears that Jon could supplant her... which is probably why she wanted him off and away with the Northern troops marching south instead of ferrying them on her ships too... at half strength there would have been room) is why I can believe she “forgot” about the Iron Fleet and didn’t want to waste time with scouting ahead. The sooner she plants herself on the physical Iron Throne the more secure she is from anyone trying to use Jon to usurp her (basically the same “possession is 9/10 of the law” theory Cersei is employing in making herself queen). * * * * And that’s why crisping a whole bunch of innocents in an offensive push is looking more than acceptable to her now. Her situation keeps deteriorating and she doesn’t even have the best claim anymore. Which is the whole point of dramatic storytelling... push your characters to the edge so we see who they really are. When Jon can’t get to Bran and all seems lost he’d rather stand up and square off against an undead dragon in a suicide battle than surrender. When faced with the undead coming out of the Crypts, Sansa and Tyrion first hide (prudent... can’t save anyone if you’re dead), check themselves (evaluate before acting... remember you have an obsidian knife) and then go out to try and protect the people in the crypts as best they can (unused footage showed their intent as they came out from behind the crypt was to fight the wights down there... which is why later shots showed Sansa and Tyrion in front of the other cowering civilians). So Dany is being pushed to the edge to reveal what she truly values and believes in. If she believes barbecuing innocents (including children) is okay so long as she gets to sit on the Throne then she’s proven that all she really values at the core is power and that doing it “for the people” is just her rationalization for it. If she burns innocents alive just to gain power for herself, she’s not the hero of this story... she’s a villain (one with good publicity, but a villain none-the-less). One thing I feel is worth remembering about the ending that’s coming is that GRRM felt so strongly about the unjustness of war that he registered and served as a conscientious objector. It’s no accident the series delves deep into the horrors of war... that the True King character is the one who’s only fought to defend and regularly makes peace with his enemies... that the most wise and level-headed advisor of them all is the one saying “a king who doesn’t defend his people is no king at all.” That’s why Dany was always going to end up the villain. She is virtually the embodiment of everything he opposes; a conqueror who justifies their atrocities behind the claims of saving the people from their unjust rulers (see “Nation Building”). Jon’s concern for the safety of his people (and being willing to make peace with his enemies), Sansa’s concern for the North, Arya and Sam’s concern for their families, Theon dying in defense of the family he’d wronged, Tyrion trying to minimize the violence and find a peaceful path... those are the heroic traits in opposition to all the villainous tyrants and conquerors of the series.

The problem is that Dany’s always had the Shadow King archetype. It’s why she collects titles like other people collect stamps and why she’s so put off by people showing loyalty to people other than her. It’s why she’s prone to lashing out and making threats when she suffers a reversal or receives less than perfect acquiescence (note that the most effective means of “managing” Dany has been presenting alternative means of getting the same general results). This is because the Shadow King is fundamentally insecure in their own power; and Dany is doubly so now that Jon’s revealed his parentage because it utterly undermines her most effective claim to legitimacy. So to assuage this insecurity, the Shadow King focuses on the trappings. In many ways the trappings are more important than truly having the power. It doesn’t matter that Cersei has nothing but King’s Landing... what matters to the insecure Shadow King is that even being able to make the claim of being “A” queen is a threat to her. If she was going to grow into the True King archetype, she wouldn’t be so laser focused on the symbolism of the Iron Throne to the point of dismissing the well-being of her own troops need to rest and recouperate and ignoring the fact that the new leadership in Dorne supports her claim. Because legitimate control of the North, Vale, Iron Islands and Dorne; with the Riverlands pretty easy to retake (which would provide a solid line of defense for their holdings as they regroup and rearm for a spring campaign to put Cersei in a two-front war from the Riverlands in the north and Dorne in the south); doesn’t assuage the underlying insecurity. I think Tyrion really did highlight the truth of it... Dany fell victim to her own hype over in Essos and has been off-balance ever since reaching Westeros because her self-perceived destiny isn’t playing out as envisioned and, as is common for the Shadow King, is lashing out in an attempt to bring it back into line with that vision. No. Because if this were Dan Targaryen vs. Joanne Snow/Anne Targaryen... Joanne would STILL have the better claim, because she is the eldest surviving child of the Crown Prince. Dany’s problem is she staked her claim on the moral legitimacy of being best claimant due to her Targaryen bloodline. Now that she CAN’T make that claim, she insists the rules be changed from the ones SHE set (i.e. legitimate heir to the previous Targ king) to let her still get what she wants. Jon knelt under false pretenses. He’d been lied to about his identity all his life. Had he known, then by right of the same claims Dany was using to name herself Queen, SHE should have been the one bending the knee to the true heir to Iron Throne when he asked her to bring her forces North for the good of the Realm. She’s as power hungry... and as illegitimate... as Cersei, Joffrey and Renly (all of whom had no legitimate claim at all or were trying to jump the line). By demanding Jon deny his true identity, she’s making herself just as much a usurper to the true king as Robert was.

I’m sure there’s an unsolved murder in your area. How about we sentence you to death for it because you live in the area and might have done it. That’s Dany’s version of “justice.” It’s good for keeping a conquered population cowed (which is why the Romans did it... and why Dany did it AGAIN after Selmy’s death, again not caring about guilt or innocence, just the naked display of power to keep them cowed), but it’s not justice. Someone actually ran the numbers based on the Targaryen family tree and Jon and Dany’s coefficient of inbreeding is around the level of full siblings. Dany herself is more inbred than the last of the Hapsberg monarchs. [Side-bar] There doesn’t need to be a curse to explain Dany’s lack of children... her DNA is a finely puréed blend of Swiss cheese and confetti. Rhaegar only managed Jon because the odds of one viable sperm out of tens to hundreds of millions (depending on how enthusiastic Rhaegar and Lyanna were) is actually within the bounds of probability. One viable egg out of a dozen-ish a year with that level of inbreeding over Dany’s entire fertile lifetime would be worse odds than buying a single powerball ticket and winning it all. [/side-bar] By contrast Jon and Sansa/Arya are mutually outbred (both Starks married different families) cross-cousins (i.e. when the parents are of opposite sexes which is apparently better genetically than non-cross cousins; ex. Sansa/Arya and Robin of the Vale). Their coefficient of inbreeding is about as likely to produce birth defects as a woman having her first pregnancy in her 30’s would be. If they were to go there, I think they’d go with a political over a love match (i.e. Jon’s status with the North is so shaky he needs the true Lady of Winterfell to shore it up and Sansa has the day-to-day management skills Jon lacks) and re-reference that Jon brooded in the corner instead of playing with the Starks as a child and wasn’t allowed to eat at the family table because of Catlyn (i.e. he wasn’t any closer to Sansa than Theon was) to step down any creepiness. IF they were to go there. As to ruling from King’s Landing... If Dany’s going nuclear on it there’s no particular reason to rebuild the capital there (it might even be seen as a bad omen like ruling Harrenhal if enough people die there). It’s only important because Aegon I made it his capitol. I think the BluRay documentaries said it was a nameless fishing village at best before then. The only reason the Iron Throne is important is the trappings of power centered there. If you’re king by acclaim, then your throne is wherever you happen to be sitting; even if it’s a stump in a clearing. If Dany burns out KL, gets removed and Jon ends up King by acclaim, there’s no reason to believe he wouldn’t choose to rule from Winterfell or a wandering court that spends time in the capitols of each of the Seven Kingdoms (which was actually pretty common for kings in the Medieval period). * * * * All that said, I think the tipping point being set up in this episode isn’t about Jon, but Tyrion. Dany has three advisors left. Greyworm is going to be all-in on the Dracarys-ing up as much of King’s Landing as needed to wipe Cersei off the map (he’s done with Westeros; if he lives, he’s going to Naath to protect it as he promised Missandie he would). Varys will probably get himself killed trying to keep Dany from lighting up King’s Landing even if that means someone like Cersei on the Throne (I suspect his ultimate line of thinking is that Jon doesn’t need the physical Throne to take the Seven Kingdoms from Cersei since, as stated above, a true king’s throne is wherever he’s sitting... King’s Landing without the Seven Kingdoms to support it won’t be able to stand for long). And Tyrion is in the middle trying desperately to find a solution that doesn’t require him to choose between Dany on the Throne and all the innocents in King’s Landing. That’s where the key conflict is gonna be in this. My hunch is he’ll flip, but only once Jaime ends up as BBQ (and probably after killing Cersie to boot so his suicide run ends up being all for nothing... the city still burns anyway).

So, Shadow Queen it is. She’s so insecure in her power that she doesn’t care how many of the kingdoms declare for her, because without the Iron Throne Cersei still gets to call herself A queen (not even THE Queen... Dany needs that title to be hers and hers alone. She can’t abide valid points (like the soldiers needing time to recouperate after a devastating battle) being raised to the point Jon has to step in and placate her. She demanded Jon keep his parentage a secret with a veiled threat to Jon’s family if he tells them, because she cares more about the Throne than the happiness of the man she claims to love. Frankly, I think the reason Sansa’s never trusted Dany is that; after Joffrey, Cersei and Ramsey; she’s finally learned to recognize a psychopath when she sees one. I get that some people are heavily invested in Dany, but this isn’t coming out of nowhere... she just had the cover from her victims being assholes for so long that it let people make excuses for it. Let’s remember Dany’s first act of power was to burn alive a woman for the crime of seeking justice on the leader who ordered her village sacked, its men killed and who was raped repeatedly by his men. Just because she loved him didn’t make Khal Drogo any less a monster in need of stopping. She crucified over a hundred people without even bothering to learn who had actually committed the crime and who had not. That’s straight out of the Roman conquest playbook... innocence or guilt is irrelevant so long as the resulting terror keeps the people in line. She threw a man to her dragons to be burned alived and ripped apart, then admitted she didn’t know or care if the man was guilty or innocent; he was just an object lesson meant again to terrorize. Then she compelled a man who’s father she’d had executed (for a crime he may have spoken out against) and witnessed her murdering a person of uncertain guilt into marrying her so as to quell the resistance to her rule. Her first impulse on returning to Meereen is to take her dragons and burn entire cities full of enslaved innocents to the ground. When prisoners of war at her mercy refuse to kneel, she burns them alive to terrify the rest into bowing. “She’s always been a monster. You loved her anyway.” And to reduce Varys’ argument why Jon is the better choice to “he has a penis” is disingenuous. He has the better claim by rules of succession. He’s a much more temperate leader with a history of making peace with his enemies and who naturally inspires others to follow him. He doesn’t seek power for its own sake. He can keep the North united with the rest of the Seven Kingdoms. He’s grown up in Westeros and hasn’t been trying to conquer it. And he’s a man, which does make it easier to get other lords on board, but that’s just the capstone on a general talent stack, not his only advantage over Dany. I can’t blame Sansa at all for leaking the info to Tyrion. She wants her family safe, Dany isn’t stable, and Jon is too great a threat to Dany’s reign even if the secret were kept for her to not eventually turn on him and the Starks. Also, I’m going to have to side with Jon. A dire wolf ISN’T a dog. It’s a wild animal. Staying in Winterfell is what makes us feel good, but Ghost belongs in the Real North where he can run free and sire albino puppies with a dire wolf that isn’t his sister. And as Tormund said about this being goodbye... you never know. We’ve still got nearly three hours left in this story and Tormund isn’t leaving until the winter storms have passed.

In reverse order; Agreed, that was a Chekov’s Gun of a line from Missendi if I’ve ever heard one. If Dany passes her test next episode I don’t think it’ll come to that (actually honoring that belief would be a solid sign of Dany’s upward trajectory to full “King” archetype). If Dany fails and the story intends her to be a full-on Shadow King then I fully expect that gun to go off. One does not leave the service of a Shadow King on your own terms because that runs against the trappings of power and demand the Shadow King be loved and adored (note Dany’s reaction to Sansa still asking about Northern independence... she immediately pulls her hand away and goes cold. That’s a Shadow King response; people refusing their rule is a rejection of them and feeds their insecurity. Overcoming that is Dany’s test). Side-bar: People have asked why they’re so certain a betrayal is coming for Dany. It’s because of a rather heavy-handed bit of plot in season seven where Dany challenges Varys’ loyalty and promises to burn him alive if he ever betrays her. Then Melisandre informs him she’s destined to die in this strange land, “as are you, dear Spider.” Because of even earlier dialogue about how he was castrated and the voice from the flames that haunts him, people are drawing a strong inferrence is that Varys will die in flames as Dany promised because he ends up betraying her (which might be a bad thing if she’s past her test, but might be a heroic thing if she’s gone full Shadow King archetype). As to Davos, I actually think the series is headed for a fairly positive ending. GRRM has called the ending “bittersweet” and he’s got enough Stannis in him to care about using words correctly. The strict definition of bittersweet is “sweet” (i.e. the protagonists get their happy endings) tinged with “bitter” (i.e. they only get to their happiness at great cost). Davos is the most fundamentally decent character in the entire show and is the one to have provided the best advice on what it means to be a GOOD ruler (not just an effective one). I think one of the most important lines in the entire series in terms of its overall theme was Davos telling Stannis “a king who doesn’t protect his people is no king at all.” I don’t think there’s even a point to this story if whoever is in charge at the end hasn’t followed that mantra (the gist of which is also that “a true king must sacrifice for his people.”). Anyway, because of the promise of bittersweet, I think Davos has to live. He’s already payed the bitter price twice over with the death of his son in the Battle of the Blackwater and then Shireen was burned alive. The only thing that pays off all that suffering is if he lives to see a truly good ruler bring peace to the realm. Along the lines of that bittersweet ending too... I think the Crypts are being set up as a headfake; something to get us so worried about the people down there (which will include Gilly, Tyrion and Varys) that we don’t see the real threat coming until it hits general audiences upside the head (ex. The Night King is off nuking King’s Landing -or- Dany fails her King test and goes after Jon, Bran and/or Sam). The reason I think that is that the oldest parts of Winterfell were built using the same old magics as The Wall and which protected the old Three-Eyed Raven until Bran got marked. That’s probably another reason why Bran didn’t want to go into the crypts... he learned his lesson from last time and doesn’t want to break the magical seal. Plus, if they don’t take out the Night King then sounding a retreat to the crypts might be the only plausible way anyone in the actual fighting survives the next episode.

Yeah, or as someone else put it a natural disaster or just general disaster in a disaster movie. Another reasonable example would be the zombies of any zombie film or series... They aren't the real story. The reason story is how the humans deal with this encroaching threat to their survival. That said... it can't all be Ice. GRRM said he was inspired by the Robert Frost poem (among other things) and that is about how the world could end either by Ice OR Fire and the map teaser made just as much of a deal about the fire sweeping up and consuming the Lannister Lion at King's Landing as it moved north as it did the cold sweeping south and overrunning Winterfell. So maybe Ice is just the first half of the final season and we get a major game change (the last big twist D&D promised) where its NOT actually the inhuman force of destruction, but human players who become the Big Bad. Indeed, one could argue that's ALWAYS been the story. The humans bickering over a Throne in the face of an oncoming force of destruction that isn't deliberately evil... it just IS. If the ending is everyone dies then it would make sense for the Night King to be the final battle. But if the ending is that they survive it, then that can't just be the end of the story. That's a lame disaster movie ending where the disaster was a one-off. No, what we need time for after that is to see how people are changed by surviving it. What do they decide to do differently going forward? Human enemies are more interesting precisely because they are complex in motivation and reaction to things. Kill or be killed aren't the only options on the table.

I actually agree with that. That’s why I listed them both in the “possible” category. Perhaps I should have written “Greyworm or Missandie” as a single entry in the previous post. That would have made it clearer that I meant one or the other rather than it possibly being both.

Since everyone seems to be doing death pools I’ll give you mine based on story structure. Here’s my criteria; 1) The character must have completed their arc (or the dying is the completion of their arc) or not have an arc to speak of and has committed a death trope. 2) The character’s death must impact a more important character in the story. As a further supposition I’m going to go with the idea that one character from each of the groups focused on in this episode will die. Here we go; - Jon and Dany are both safe precisely because of the outstanding issues of Jon’s parentage. There was zero reason to even include that story element if one of them is to die here. - The Starks are absolutely safe because the strife between Jon and them over his bending the knee has not been resolved (similarly Sansa’s conflict with Dany over Northern independence remains unresolved), nor did they share any scenes with each other. Bran is especially safe since his role as the world’s memory is the very thing the Night King is trying to snuff out and there’s no backup. He’s also a key part of the evidence to prove Jon’s claim (and if anyone doubts him he just needs to bring up something embarrassing or criminal that only the doubter would know like he did to Littlefinger and Jamie) and perhaps Jon’s best weapon (warging) against the dragons if he does come into greater conflict with Dany for the sake of drama. - Jamie and Tyrion are safe because they still have a confrontation with Bronn and then Cersei before them. Tyrion may also have some betrayal of Dany action to resolve. - Varys is safe because Dany can’t burn him alive for betrayal if he’s dead. - Davos is safe because his deserved ending and dream is to serve as Hand for a truly just ruler in a time of peace. - Sam is safe because he has a story to write and because he provides the tangible evidence that supports Bran’s visions about Jon’s claim. And now the actual likely dead... - Theon: After rescuing his sister and his warm reception here, his redemptive death saving Bran will be the capstone on one the greatest redemption arcs ever written and will leave a lasting mark on all the Starks. - Berric: He finished out his apology tour with Arya (having apologized to Gendry last season) and his whole reason for existence and being brought back again and again is to aid in facing the Night King. His death doesn’t really impact many others on its own, but if I were to wager it will be to save Jon and give him time to destroy the Night King. - Ser Brienne: She has achieved her life’s dream of becoming a knight. She has trained Podrick to the point he is now training others. She has won the hearts of two men who would be devastated if she chose the other. If she dies protecting Sansa or Arya she will have died fulfilling her oaths to Cat, Jamie and Sansa and her loss would impact Sansa (her most trusted advisor/protector), Jamie, Tormund and Podrick. - Jorah: He has no arc beyond service to his Queen. His death saving Lyanna while wielding a blade in memory of Jeor Mormont would win him redemption in the eyes of his House and deprive Dany of a key advisor just before she’s going to feel the need to kill Varys for betraying her. - The Night King: Too one note to be the final conflict of the series and you can’t deal with Cersei/Euron and look responsible as a leader unless the Night King is soundly defeated. The only drama is how many die before they kill him and that’s not good drama you want to conclude the story with since it would end it on “if only they’d killed him X minutes sooner my favorite would still be alive.” Possibles include; Gendry: Sex before death in battle, but leaves a bun in the oven (heir to the Stormlands or even the Iron Throne if posthumously legitimized) is an exceedingly common trope so I wouldn’t rule it out. Greyworm: Because his only arc is what he plans to do after the story; making him the vetern officer who’s just announced he’s retiring at the end of the month and moving to Florida with his wife. Missandie: Because her only arc is a desire to go home once the story is over and the only thing more tragic than Greyworm not living to retire is him having to go and protect Naath without Missandie. Gilly: File this under general dread, but Sam, Gilly and Little Sam all content in bed with each other as the song about dancing with ghosts was sung over it screams out that something bad will happen to Gilly (since Sam is safe) in the crypts. Gah! I hated even typing that. We’ll find out in five days.

My hunch is a lot fewer people die next episode than we expect simply because there are still episodes to go and there’s no real way for everyone at Winterfell to actually retreat. They’ve got way too many eggs in the Winterfell basket so my hunch is they actually DO kill the Night King after all, because that’s the only way enough of the cast to matter is around to fill out the final four hours of the show. My spec is this... Bran remembers everything now so he remembers both how the Night King was created and, though WE haven’t seen it, how the Night King was stopped last time. Winterfell has its name for a reason and it was Bran himself who told everyone he would await the Night King in the Godswood where a weirwood tree stands (heck, it may even be the SAME tree as the last time Winter Fell). My related spec is this... the first teaser for season 8 with the map wasn’t just cold sweeping down across the map. That was just the first half. The second was fire consuming the south and the lion at King’s Landing and sweeping north. I think they destroy (or at least drive back) the Night King, but the conflict between Jon and Dany escalates before it gets better (IF it gets better) and the second half of the season is Dany (the fire) turning her forces on Cersei and sweeping the south until we get a Dance of Dragons 2.0 where Jon and Dany either come to terms (perhaps dividing Westeros between North and South as symbolized by the obsidian wall forming at The Neck in the teaser) or one or the other emerges as the true ruler of the Seven Kingdoms. I definitely think this would provide a lot more drama. The Night King is so one note (wants to kill everyone/bring on endless night) that he’s actually pretty boring. Kill him or he kills you doesn’t give you much to work with for a final battle. Unless they really intend the ending to be “Everybody Dies” (and if so, who writes “The Song of Ice and Fire”?) the only drama is who dies before the Night King is finally killed. That’s rather unsatisfying though since the only reason someone’s favorite character dies in the end is just a function of “they didn’t kill the Night King fast enough” and not something related to their own choices and allegiances. Jon and Dany; two characters we both have reasons to root for; in conflict has much stronger potential for drama in a final battle scenario because there are actually many different ways other than kill or be killed on the table. The only one I’d rule out is Jonerys. When the council meeting ended and Dany was clearly hoping to “get some sleep” with Jon, he ghosted out of there like “Nope! Not gonna spend my final hours banging my Aunt!” Jonerys is so dead not even the Night King could reanimate it. Which is frankly for the best. It’s as boring an ending as the final battle being against the one note Night King. Taking that off the table means we have a whole range of endings that could surprise us... - The basic version is just that neither Jon nor Dany will bend and one kills the other and rules as a sole monarch. This would be the most bittersweet as someone we’ve rooted for practically the entire series dies, but it’s not nearly as shades of grey as they could go for an ending. - After some fighting they reach a compromise where Dany rules, but Jon’s children are her heirs. - After battling to a draw, they reach a compromise where Jon rules the North and Dany the South (after all the entire continent would still be under Targaryen rule). - Dany realizes that even if it’s not her on the throne that she has still restored the Targaryen dynasty; she acknowledges Jon’s claim to the Iron Throne and returns to Essos to rule her kingdoms there. - Jon and Dany take each other out and the Seven Kingdoms are split up into seven separate kingdoms again with Sansa ruling the North, Yara the Iron Islands, Sam the Reach, Robin the Vale, Gendry (with Davos as his chief advisor) the Stormlands, Jamie or Tyrion the Westerlands and someone taking over in Dorne. - Alternately Jon and Dany die as above, but Gendry is legitmized and becomes the King and Arya his Queen with Davos and Tyrion advising him. - Some other variation I haven’t thought of. Lots more possibilities means more drama as which possible ending we get is far more in doubt than “Will the Night King kill everyone?” (because of course he won’t... the showrunners want this to be a show people people rewatch and buy special edition box sets of for those sweet sweet residuals... “everyone dies” kills that). So that’s my spec. Bran has a plan that takes out the Night King with a lot fewer deaths than many are predicting. My money is on... - Brienne (because her arc was finished after becoming a knight and having trained Pod to the point he’s training others now, because she fulfills all her oaths to Cat, Jamie and Sansa if she dies in defense of one of the Stark daughters... and because her death would have a profound impact on Sansa, Jamie, Pod and Tormund). - Lyanna or Jorah Mormont (Lyanna because she has no arc of her own and her loss would greatly impact Jorah going forward... Jorah because he could redeem himself in the eyes of his house by saving Lyanna using the sword he swore to wield in honor of Jeor Mormont and his loss would greatly impact Dany going forward). - Theon (because his death to save Bran seals the deal on his complete redemption). - Berric (because the Lord of Light brought him back for just this moment). Less certain but possible additions include; - Greyworm or Missandie (Greyworm because he’s a veteran officer who just announced he’s retiring at the end of the month and moving to Florida with his wife... Missandie because Greyworm going to Naath without her but protecting her people so no more become slaves is one of those hurts in tragic beauty sort of endings). - Gendry (the classic screw just before tragic death, but leaving a bun in the oven... plus Arya is running from someone in the next episode teaser and the only reason for that I can think of she’d be doing that is if it’s the wight of someone she can’t bring herself to kill). - Gilly and/or Little Sam (call it a primal fear, but seeing Sam so content in bed with his family just worries me that something is going to happen down in the crypts). That’s still actually a fair amount (my gut says half the recurring and major characters die by the end of the series and that would be over a third of that half); but it’s still way less than you’d realistically see if the Night King weren’t stopped. My further reasoning on the above is it would be one loss from each of the main groupings we saw last episode who largely wrapped up someone’s arc (or just dropped a traditional death anvil trope like announcing your retirement); Brienne from the group at the fire, Berric from the “miserable old shits” drinking atop the battlements, Theon who finally had Sansa opening up as they ate in the courtyard, Jorah or Lyanna from their conversation that Sam joins in on... Greyworm or Missandie and Gendry as well. Gilly and/or Little Sam because again, primal fear. We’ll find out in five days.

Greyworm is a Veteran officer who just announced he’s two weeks from retiring and moving to Florida. He’s SO dead.

I don’t know that she has to deliberately give them up (in the sense of setting them free in the Grass Sea of Essos or something) to pass the test of character... just that she needs to gain respect and authority without falling back on “I have dragons” as her primary implement of enforcing her will. Let’s look at the other King archetype in the story; Jon. He was able to unite warring factions for a common cause without any sort of dragon giving him the ability to enforce his will. It’s no accident that as Jon and Sansa are out asking old family allies for aid against Ramsey, Dany is taking advantage of her fire immunity to murder the Khals, having the Dothraki bowing to her like a goddess and then psyching them up for war (“what will you do for ME?”) from the back of a dragon. He becomes King based solely on people’s faith in him... not “I have dragons.” This isn’t to say Jon is without flaws. He is perilously close to the opposite Shadow King from Dany... the Impotent King (Dany masks her insecurity with shows of power... Jon’s insecurity manifests as surrendering his power at the first good opportunity). Also of note for those hoping for Jonerys still happening... that’s so dead not even the Night King could reanimate it. After the “best spend your last hours with your loved ones” at the end of the war council, Dany was clearly looking at Jon like she wanted a booty call, but Jon had already ghosted out of there like “NOPE! Not gonna spend my last hours banging my aunt!” But the other reason it’s dead is because two opposing shadow archetypes don’t balance each out; they make each other worse. Whoever gets the Throne is the one who finds their center and becomes the True King archetype. The primary means of attaining the King archetype is through coming together with the Lover (usually the first, provides initial encouragement and council), Magician (provides hidden knowledge that empowers them) and Warrior (reminds them of the importance of loyalty to a larger cause) archetypes. That’s the Starks and their relationship to Jon in a nutshell. He reunited with Sansa first and she’s the one who initially pushed him to fight for Winterfell. Bran has supplied him the secret knowledge that completely recasts his relationship to Dany. Arya is reminding Jon of the importance of loyalty to his family. Reunion with the Stark pack is THE archetypal formula for Jon to shift from Impotent King to True King. Likewise, for Dany to go from her shadow to True King, she too will need to find some synthesis with a Lover, Magician and Warrior. Her biggest problem is that her advisors are actually the shadow archetypes of the Lover (Tyrion the Addict; whose obsession with their desires blinds them), Magician (Varys the Manipulator; who keeps secrets to advance their own schemes instead of to enlighten... and wants to control Dany for the good of the Realm) and Warrior (Jorah the Masochist; who believes he has no worth save to die for the cause). The only way for Dany to grow is for her council to do so first or for her to find new advisors (ironically, her instinct to dump Tyrion was actually the correct one to follow the the course of evolving into a “King” until Jorah the Masochist archetype convinces her to keep him because he doesn’t value himself enough to step in as her loyal Hand). What Dany really needs is for Greyworm and Missandre to reassert themselves as the Warrior and Lover archetypes in her life and to rid herself of Tyrion and Varys (Dany was at her strongest with Greyworm/Warrior, Missandre/Lover and Barristan Selmy/Magician as her chief advisors... she’s grown weaker relying on Tyrion, Varys and Jorah). At least that’s my read on it.

She may very well try, but she won’t succeed. Not in episode three certainly (which is also why we can be assured the Stark’s safety next episode... they didn’t get the closure elements of interaction with each other one last time that so many others did). If Dany tries to kill Jon and Sam (and Bran) then her endgame is Shadow King... the “Fire” of the Song of Ice (Night King) and Fire (Dany) that Jon will have to overcome as the reluctant but true king (honestly, his reluctance for power over others is one of the surest signs of a True King archetype... they see power as a burden and rule out of duty to their people rather than a desire for power for themselves). If so, the series is going Super-Jungian* for its conclusion because as I stated about last episode, Jon starting on the outs with the rest of the Starks means the narrative reversal of the season has to be his realignment with them. The reason I say Super-Jungian is because Arya, Bran and Sansa absolutely embody the archetypes of Warrior (skilled and loyal), Magician (keeper of secret lore) and Lover (good at reading people and social cues) respectively and for the King archetype to be fully realized it must overcome its Shadow by drawing upon the strengths of the Warrior, Magician and Lover (in real life these are all aspects of the same person with the King as full actualization of all aspects in unison, but in fiction you can externalize them into characters of their own). Put bluntly, if Dany fails her test and proves herself the Shadow King, then Jon needs to reconcile with his family to overcome her and become the True King. IF she fails the test of character she’s been presented that is. * Indeed, one can even say the overall narrative is that of the four main Starks growing from the four child archetypes into the four adult archetypes by overcoming various external shadow archetypes.

Dany is currently acting in total alignment with what’s called the Shadow King archetype. She is insecure in her power because she is not centered (one sign of this is her absolute refusal to actually answer any questions about how she intends to rule once she has the throne... likely because she doesn’t know herself. She’s been so focused on getting the throne that I don’t think she’s thought beyond platitudes like “break the wheel” on what happens afterwards). Because they are insecure in their power, the Shadow King focuses on outward displays of power... fly-bys with her dragons, piling on titles, wanting everyone to respect and love from everyone. And how could Dany really be secure at this point? She’s the stranger in a land she’s never set foot in until a few months ago. She’s not the beloved liberator here; she’s the last of a line of conquerors whose last days in power were remembered for the war and strife they brought. And things have not gone at all as she planned or expected; she lost both her main Westerosi allies, her fleet, and was outmaneuvered by Cersei in the attack on Casterly Rock. She lost a dragon to an enemy she didn’t even know existed and then Cersei outplayed her again with her false promises of support and the North still wanting independence once this all over. If her endgame is to rule the Seven Kingdoms, she must gain that center and grow past the need for the outward displays of authority and become a True “King.” She needs to outgrow the need for the trappings of rulership. The surest sign of her growth in that direction would be destroying the Iron Throne (the physical trapping of rulership) for the good of the people. It would be a sign that she’s learned a true queen is a queen regardless of where she sits. Thd throne is just a symbol, not the source, of leadership. Her greatest danger is that her insecurity will cause her to double down on outward displays of power by resorting to raw force to get her way as she did with the Tarleys who refused to kneel. That way is the path of the Tyrant whereas the proper King archetype unites people by their example and by focusing on the needs of their people. As much as anything this episode set up a test for Dany in the next about whether she will grow into the “King” role or remain a “Shadow King.” She has been presented with a point of insecurity with Sansa (both still wanting independence and because Sansa has advisors she trusts absolutely and people willing to fight and die for her) and with Jon’s revelation of his true parentage making her claim to the Iron Throne far less secure... and knowing one of the primary sources for his claim will be sitting right in the Godswood (and the documentation is probably in the library of Winterfell where Sam keeps his books). The test? Does she use the cover of battle to eliminate her sources of insecurity with violence (i.e. remain the Shadow King) or does she put the needs of the people she intends to rule first by focusing on the battle against the dead (which will do a lot on its own to remove much of the insecurity people have towards her on its own) and then deal with the points of insecurity presented as a proper ruler would? That’s Dany’s REAL challenge next episode... the battle with death itself is just the pressure point for driving action based on everyone’s true nature. That’s why Dany had to know before the battle... because it’s going to require her to go with her gut and not her head and in so doing, reveal her true character (as will be the case for everyone in the heat of the coming battle... they’re all going to have to act without time to ponder and so we’ll see all their true natures come to the fore).

The amusing thing to me is Jon has probably done more to “break the wheel” than Dany ever has. He brokered peace between the Wildlings and the Watch/North. He made peace with the children of the men who fought alongside Ramsey. He made peace with Theon and by extension that means Yara and the Ironborn willing to give peace a chance once the war is over. And he’s done it the same way every time; even as he approached Dany; by not letting past grievances get in the way of making a future. That’s the biggest difference between Jon and all the other people who’ve been fighting for the Iron Throne. He’s not interested in power to settle past wrongs or acknowledge his greatness... it’s a burden he puts up with because it’s the best way to protect his people; which in the grand scheme of things has always been everyone (not just the North, but the Wildlings and by stopping the Night King he protects everyone else on Westeros). And as Sir Davos so eloquently summed it up way back in season four, “a King who doesn’t protect his people is no King at all.” Even without being recognized as it, Jon has always been acting as the True King of Westeros by doing everything in his power to protect its people.

My impression on Three-Eyed Raven future sight is that while one can get solid views of the past and present, the future is more "glimpses." Brief flashes and generally without context. Basically, its the same as how the Force works in Star Wars (and is probably envisioned in pretty much the same way)... the past and present can be seen relatively clearly (if you know what you're looking for or share a connection to someone), but "always in motion is the future." This probably also covers why the prophecies in the GoT-world are generally so vague. The people making them don't have the full picture, just impressions and glimpses... possibly even just symbolic images (ex. the Iron Throne with Snow on it in Dany's vision). Take the destruction of the Sept. If we saw what Bran saw we know it probably blows up because of Wildfire (because its green fire), but we don't know WHEN it blows up or why it was blown up. What if it was because the Night King had been lured inside and was otherwise empty? What if its not going to happen for a hundred years because a lost cache gets disturbed (and even looking for it might set it off because its so unstable) and so you left a warning and its empty? The image of the destruction itself is phenomenally unhelpful. A lovely example of this was actually in the series Babylon-5 where they used a "set timeline" (all time travel has already happened so you can't change the past or the future) and one vision of the future was Babylon-5 exploding. Seems really ominous and had lots of people worried, but in the end it was revealed that it was a vision from many many years in the future when it had been scheduled for demolition after being decommissioned. Far more useful is, honestly, Bran's ability to get instant real-time intelligence from across the entire realm. He could see Jamie was coming, not from a future vision, but because he could view Jamie on the road. He knows where the Night King is. He could probably have told Tyrion that the Lannister armies actually aren't coming if he'd thought it was important. My hunch is Bran probably has seen enough glimpses of the future that he knows certain things happen, but he has to wait until closer to the actual events to have context. Like once you knew that Cersei was going to face a trial in the Sept with all her enemies there, that vision of the exploding Sept has some context and taking steps might be productive. That's probably the case with why Bran told Sam it was time to tell Jon the truth. Something he caught in the glimpse of the future was a clue that it was near at hand and it was time to say something; maybe the way Sam was so clearly upset for example.

Narratively speaking, Jon’s about the safest character in the series. For all the perceptions of “anyone can die” the early seasons provided the story is actually quite conventional; archetypal even (the perception was mostly a function of the story employing false protagonists in the early portions... Ned was basically the Owen/Beru and Robb the Biggs in Jon/Luke’s story). Even the false protagonists don’t just die to a random arrow in the middle of the battle. Ned was betrayed and executed after trusting the wrong people and refusing to play politics (and to be the inciting incident for the Starks to have a personal stake in the war). Robb was betrayed and murdered because he followed his heart instead of head and pissed off a bunch of his allies in the process. Rickon died just feet away Jon from an arrow loosed by Ramsey to maximize the dramatic anguish to Jon. Ygrette wasn’t killed by a random strike from a random Night Watchman without Jon even noticing; she was killed right in front of him by an arrow from Ollie. The point is, this IS a story that follows narrative rules. That means you don’t bring someone back from the dead just to kill them again (the general narrative rule is “you only die once per story”) and you don’t drop the anvil that Jon is the true king and rightful heir without it mattering to the ending. Further, because he IS the true king, but has been positioned at a distinct disadvantage to the false claimant, then the story has to be how he overcomes those disadvantages. Also, if this narrative continues as I expect, then GRRM has pulled off quite the narrative feat in that in addition to presenting us the rise of the true hero, he’s also shown us the full path of the rise of the villain as well... and got us to spend a good chunk of the narrative actually rooting for her even as she invaded a country she’d never set foot in with an army of savage pillagers, pirates, troops in black face concealing armor and man-eating dragons just because she started out an underdog and early on set her sights mostly on people who were even worse. Look past her early seasons as an underdog and look at her as if she was a new character showing up in the Westerosi narrative and you’ll see that Dany IS the cliche of a villainous conqueror, complete with magic powers (fire immunity and having birthed the dragons in the first place) and various deformed advisors (a dwarf and a eunuch).

Point of clarification; They're STARTING Jon in a different direction. As I've said before drama is all about reversals and D&D are damned near clockwork on having characters move from one pole to the other over the season. If Jon is starting on a bit of the outs with his family and the North while on good terms with Dany, make no mistake, the point of the season will be Jon learning to rely on his family and breaking with Dany (he may have Targ blood, but he's a Northerner in head and heart... he's not going to marry his already horrifically inbred aunt.* Even if he can never prove it to anyone else, that ship was sunk by Sam's reveal and even the music in the parentage reveal scene agreed; it was the Jon/Dany romance theme except in an entirely minor chord vs. the major chords used previously). The Army of the Dead isn't enough to carry the whole season either. They're entirely one-note. You fight them to the death, flee or you die. There's no negotiation and therefore no drama beyond what the human characters bring to it. That means the reverse of Jon and Dany will end up being the actual drama of the season... the Night King is just the pressure being applied to force action. Jon's arc is to learn to trust his family and with their help overcome the threats to them; both Ice AND Fire. * Seriously, people give Joffrey grief and he's just one generation of inbreeding. Dany is the result of multiple generations of it. Her family tree (family ladder more accurately) is so messed up that not only is she Jon's aunt, she's also his first cousin once removed AND his second cousin once removed. Genetically, they're about on par with full siblings (44% shared DNA).