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Celebrating 1,000 NCIS-franchise episodes

Ovi Kabir: Cutest Little Camper Ever

slasherboy

By slasherboy
in Past Contestants Archive

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Halting Hex

Halting Hex

Glad to see I won't have to do them all this year, and yeah, if Ovi goes tonight, I'll almost miss him.

However, it is traditional to include the HG's full name in the titles of the contestant threads.  Ovi's surname is "Kabir". Might I request that you edit the thread title to include that?  Thanks in advance.

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slasherboy

slasherboy

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16 hours ago, Halting Hex said:

Glad to see I won't have to do them all this year, and yeah, if Ovi goes tonight, I'll almost miss him.

However, it is traditional to include the HG's full name in the titles of the contestant threads.  Ovi's surname is "Kabir". Might I request that you edit the thread title to include that?  Thanks in advance.

Absolutely!

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Melina22

Melina22

Finally, a houseguest I didn't have to be embarrassed I rooted for. Great guy. Lots of character. And, yikes, a VERY attractive girlfriend. I'll bet Gr8ful would have been shocked, given the abysmally low opinion they had of him. Their loss. 

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Halting Hex

Halting Hex

A little math about the "Warn an 8-person alliance that there's an eight-person alliance forming".  (I'm second-guessing Ovi, obvi, but with affection.)

At the time Ovi heard Nick and Tommy saying "eight", there were 15 HGs in the House.  (David still being "lost in the forest" at that point.)  If Nick and Tommy have six allies, and you're not one of them, that means they are allied with half of the remaining 12 HGs.  So it's a 50% shot that anyone you "warn" about the alliance might already be part of it.  You might get lucky and find one non-alliance member to recruit, but four?  Not that likely, Ovi.

Ovi "warns" Jack.  50% of the time (6/12), Jack will be part of the alliance.

Of the remaining 50% when Jack is not in the alliance, that means it's now 6/11 odds the next person Ovi "warns" is with Nick and Tommy.  So the odds of Jackson or Jack being in the alliance are 77.3%  (6/12 + [6/12 x 6/11]).  

Of the 22.7% of the time when neither Jack nor Son is in the alliance, there is now a 6/10 chance the next person is.  So the odds against Jack/Jackson/AnalySis all being out of the loop is roughly 93.6% against.  (6/12 + [6/12 x 6/11] +[6/12 x 6/11 x 6/10]).

And of that last 6.4 chance that Ovi hasn't shot himself yet, the chance of his fourth "ally" actually being in with Nick/Tommy now rises to 6/9, or 2/3.  

So, all in all, the odds of Ovi randomly finding four "safe" confidants in Jack/Jackson/Sis/Christie was about 97.8% against.  Yikes.  (The odds that he'd actually pick four of Nick/Tommy's allies, as he did, were nearly as long, but that's irrelevant.  It only takes landing on one Gr8ful member to sink Ovi's battleship…and so it did.)

Actually, if Ovi founded the Fam5 (another darned numeral!) after the initial nominations were announced, that made it even more likely he was "warning" Nick's allies against him.  Since Nick and Tommy might be unwilling to ally with somebody already on the block.  And if you throw Cliff and Kathryn out of the potential ally pool, that means that Nick/Tommy were allied with 6/10 of the remaining HGs.  

Good luck threading that needle, Ovi-Wan.

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Melina22

Melina22

What a great guy. One of my favourite people to play BB. We saw him behave like a human under horrible conditions. 

After such an experience it's wonderful to see Ovi, Kemi and, no doubt, David, get such a warm, supportive reception from the public. This is a very unusual thing for early evictees. It helps remove the bad taste from my mouth. 

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