Endgame Discussion and Speculation

[GraceK]

3 minutes ago, Wouter said:

I think most Sansa fans want her to be lady of Winterfell or lady of the Vale or some such, with a happy marriage or single.

I was wrong to generalize. That wasn’t fair at all. As someone who genuinely doesn’t hate Sansa and wishes her no harm, what you describe above is my preferred ending for her. 

[screamin]

On 4/12/2018 at 1:12 PM, Eyes High said:

Fair enough. I'm not the only one who thinks that something horrible is going to happen at the tourney. Sansa in the TWOW Alayne chapter is strolling around thinking about how happy she is and how clever she is for having planned the tourney. The last time Sansa was this happy in the books was when she thought she'd be marrying Willas Tyrell, and we all know how that turned out. I don't know what exactly will happen, but it's going to be bad. GRRM has set a lot of traps for LF and Sansa: Sweetrobin's suspicion of Harry the Heir, Myranda's jealousy, Lyn Corbray's resentment of LF, and of course Ser Shadrich skulking about. It's just a matter of which one he's going to spring. 

IA. There's also Kettleblack - all of his three sons are in danger of dying in KL, he will likely ask LF to help them, but LF won't want to risk that for them. Kettleblack then becomes a danger to him and a potential witness against him.

Sweetrobin's suspicion of Harry the Heir isn't going to amount to much by itself; I'm sure most people who've MET SR are already hoping he kicks the bucket soon so handsome Harry can take over. IA about Myranda, but I wonder just which way she'll jump. She seems to know who Alayne really is, AND she knows that her father's new social status as lord of the castle LF gave him depends on LF staying in power. What will she do to consolidate her own position? IMO, she won't side with Sansa against LF for fear of Sansa fucking it up and her father losing the castle. However, she MIGHT try to use her knowledge to blackmail LF into giving her more status to keep her quiet - maybe even by marrying her. In any case, she'll definitely be another obstacle Sansa will have to overcome in a fight against LF - and Myranda's obviously no fool. But I don't think she'll act against Alayne out of simple jealousy over her being the belle of the ball and catching Harry's eye...she knows LF could have her and her father's hide for that.

Ser Shadrich - he'll no doubt recognize Sansa. The question is, what he'll do about it. Kidnapping her and escaping the Vale to take her to KL while LF is raising a hue and cry and using all his resources to get her back is difficult and risky; cutting off her head for easier transport to bring to Cersei only marginally less so. (It would also make a rather lame end to Sansa's story, IMO). I think he'll most likely try to sell the info about Sansa's identity to an enemy of LF in the Vale - less money than from Cersei, but also much safer money. If he tries to sell it to Lyn Corbray, who's secretly LF's creature, he'll get himself killed (I can't remember; why do you think Lyn Corbray resents LF so much he'd kill his golden goose?)

But if Shadrich sells his info to Bronze Yohn Royce (who already nearly recognized Sansa) all hell would break loose. Yohn has no love for Cersei, but he hates LF and would plan to accuse him of lying to harbor an accused regicide, and demand his year of grace as Regent be cut short and a trial held to bring out the whole truth. LF's careful schedule would be upset, and he would have to move up his plans to kill SR and put Harry on the throne as a more useful and powerful ally (Sansa presumably having already captured his heart, or at least his ambitions to get her claim).

I think LF would demand that Sansa be the one to give the fatal dose to SR while LF is alibied safely elsewhere - that's his style. Then Sansa would have to act against LF. She would have to use everything she's learned to prevail - about Kettleblack, about Lothar Brune being LF's designated spy on Kettleblack to make sure he behaves. She would also have to use all the gossip she's gotten from befriending the servants as an equal (which shows how much she's changed from the snob of the first book). That includes the fact that Lothar Brune is in love with Mya Stone, who might thus help convince him to turn against LF. The only thing I'm not sure of is why heartbroken Mya (who was jilted by a knight) would help Sansa that way. She's a decent person, and it would be nice if she became Sansa's BFF the way both their fathers were - but seducing an older man like Lothar Brune is a big ask. How would Sansa convince her?

You mentioned you thought that Jon and Sansa's indifference to each other would mean that they would have little or no relationship in the endgame aside from maybe Jon asking wheat from Sansa for his fight up North. I think, on the contrary, that their bond of familial affection will be essential to making it work. Each will come to the other under a cloud of doubt. From what rumor has whispered of Sansa, she was first a collaborator with the Lannisters, then clever enough and treacherous enough to murder Joffrey, betray Tyrion and leave him as the fall guy while she made her safe escape. If she manages to prevail over LF in the Vale, the whispers will be that she managed to doublecross and kill the smoothest operator in the Kingdoms. How could Jon trust a person like that, who might just try to have him killed as a deserter so she can claim the QITN title? And how can Sansa trust a man who obviously deserted from the Watch after being its Lord Commander, with some ridiculously unbelievable story of resurrection as an excuse, telling wild stories about ice zombies, and demanding she divert precious food worth its weight in gold and soldiers she needs to defend the Vale from Cersei for his own use? IMO, it will take their mutual familial affection and trust (however weak it may be) to overcome those obstacles. The lone wolf dies, but the pack survives.

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He knows that Tyrion's an ugly dwarf who's a member of an enemy house, and that Sansa was married to him as a hostage. And none of this gives him any pause or causes him to revise his opinion of the man he considered a friend. He's not blind to what she suffered, but he sure is indifferent.

Honestly, I think he just doesn't take into account how traumatizing a wedding night might be for a typical lady, as Sansa was when he last saw her. I mean, look at Alys. Circumstances have forced her to immediately marry a man she has never met, who she knows nothing about except what little Jon's told her, who can barely even SPEAK her language, and consummate right away. Jon praises her bravery, but his thoughts don't dwell on her immediate difficulties in the bedding. It's a lady's role to open her legs and think of Westeros. Sansa's a lady, she would do what she was told. He knows Tyrion is kind and won't mistreat her. Yes, I know, he's an enemy to the Starks. But I think it's as much nonsense to say that ALL enemies are alike and would be equally brutal husbands as it would be nonsense to say that all ALLIES are alike and would make equally GOOD husbands. Do you think that if Jon heard Arya had been married off to a Frey back when the Freys were allies and that was the original plan, he would immediately assume that the Frey in question would be a good husband that Arya would welcome, just because he was an ally? He wouldn't, IMO, because he knows Arya well and knows that she absolutely refuses a typical lady's duty and would not be obedient to it, which would make the process of being forced to it far more traumatizing and more recognizable as rape to a medieval mindset. And while he doesn't know Ramsay personally, I'd say his reputation as a flayer makes it more likely he would be especially cruel.

Edited April 13, 2018 by screamin

[Sunshinegal]

30 minutes ago, Wouter said:

I think most Sansa fans want her to be lady of Winterfell or lady of the Vale or some such, with a happy marriage or single.

 

26 minutes ago, GraceK said:

I was wrong to generalize. That wasn’t fair at all. As someone who genuinely doesn’t hate Sansa and wishes her no harm, what you describe above is my preferred ending for her. 

Agree with both of these statements.  The best endgame is for Sansa to be the Lady of Winterfell or Lady of the Vale who chooses to marry or not marry.  I don't think that Sansa would be happy as endgame queen.

[Eyes High]

55 minutes ago, Wouter said:

Putting those 2 quotes together for an observation: from my experience, most Sansa fans don't want Sansa as endgame queen. The reason is that pretty much Sansa's only shot at that (in the context of Westeros and the Iron Throne, at least) lies with Tyrion.

Or Jon, I guess, although Sansa being Jon's endgame queen consort relies on a number of assumptions I find...questionable.

 

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If Tyrion is the dark horse candidate for being end-king (this would rely on Dany and Jon both not being available at the end), there is a very clear way for Sansa to be queen (and possibly fullfill the YMBQ prophecy, as dark horse alternative to Dany) but very few Sansa fans like the implication of that.

Given that Book Tyrion is a hideous dwarf with some considerable baggage when it comes to the ladies, can you blame them?

 

23 minutes ago, screamin said:

IA. There's also Kettleblack - all of his three sons are in danger of dying in KL, he will likely ask LF to help them, but LF won't want to risk that for them. Kettleblack then becomes a danger to him and a potential witness against him.

Right. Oswell also arrives from Gulltown on a lathered horse, and we don't find out what he told Littlefinger, but whatever it was, it must have been important.

 

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IA about Myranda, but I wonder just which way she'll jump. She seems to know who Alayne really is

Sansa blurted out "Jon Snow?" in Myranda's presence, after Littlefinger warned her to keep her mouth shut around Myranda, and there may be consequences for that. Also, Sansa has a really bad track record with the women in her life laying on the charm, winning her trust, and then fucking her over. Myranda may prove a true and good friend when push comes to shove, but I'm skeptical.

 

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If he tries to sell it to Lyn Corbray, who's secretly LF's creature, he'll get himself killed (I can't remember; why do you think Lyn Corbray resents LF so much he'd kill his golden goose?)

Lyn Corbray is his brother Lyonel's heir as long as his brother remains childless. LF found a bride for Lyonel who's now knocked up, which would effectively disinherit Lyn. Sansa realizes in the TWOW chapter that Lyn's anger at LF may be genuine and he may only be pretending to be LF's man, but the idea of Lyn being a triple agent pretty much shorts out her brain and she puts the thought out of her head.

 

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I think LF would demand that Sansa be the one to give the fatal dose to SR while LF is alibied safely elsewhere - that's his style.

Making Sansa knowingly complicit is a tactic LF has used before, but he has also previously used her as an unknowing instrument to get her to do things she would otherwise balk at (wearing poison that would be used to murder Joffrey). I don't know which tack he would choose when it came to SR. He seems content for SR to be poisoned slowly while letting Sansa believe (as she apparently does) that he can still live a long life.

 

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She's a decent person, and it would be nice if she became Sansa's BFF the way both their fathers were - but seducing an older man like Lothar Brune is a big ask. How would Sansa convince her?

I don't see anything in AFFC to suggest that Mya cares at all about Sansa, much less that she would go out of her way to help her. They're not friends.

 

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Honestly, I think he just doesn't take into account how traumatizing a wedding night might be for a typical lady, as Sansa was when he last saw her. I mean, look at Alys. Circumstances have forced her to immediately marry a man she has never met, who she knows nothing about except what little Jon's told her, who can barely even SPEAK her language, and consummate right away. Jon praises her bravery, but his thoughts don't dwell on her immediate difficulties in the bedding.

Jon doesn't lose any sleep over Alys being pissed over having to have sex with a wildling, but he was willing to intervene to spare Alys from being married off against her will and takes steps to protect her from her uncle. The forced marriage Alys was fleeing is much closer to Sansa's marriage to Tyrion than the match with Sigorn, which was brokered by someone she trusts and to which she consents (if only as a preferable alternative to her uncle).

The fact that Jon agrees with Alys' objection to her forced marriage but doesn't lose any sleep over Sansa's forced marriage is again a sign of how little he cares for Sansa, since Alys, a very distant relative he has trouble recognizing, seemingly warrants more consideration than his own sister. Alys says that her uncle will kill her once she gives him a child, which is what Cat and Robb quite rightly predict will happen to Sansa once she gives Tyrion an heir. 

 

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He knows Tyrion is kind and won't mistreat her.

Marrying her against her will and presumably raping her wasn't mistreating her?

[screamin]

12 hours ago, anamika said:

I am only laughing at your refusal to acknowledge that Jon specifically broke his oaths for Arya and instead keep insisting that it was for his family, for Stannis, for wildlings etc.

In my posts, I do acknowledge that Arya was indeed a factor in his finally deciding to openly break his oath, and I DID acknowledge that she is the person he loves most in the world, hence likely the most important factor. All I did was point out that she wasn't the only factor, and that Arya by herself was insufficient to cause him to do it - it required as well a threat to the wildlings he'd been spending the whole book defending from the NW and the Others, and to Stannis' widow and child after he'd helped Stannis try to defeat his family's enemies.

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That would have been the stupidest thing ever. GRRM is writing about the human heart in conflict with itself. If Jon just ups and leaves after hearing about the wedding there would be no story there.

You're quite right. But Jon doesn't know he's in a novel, and the need to spin out an entertaining story for the readers and increase GRRM's page count isn't a part of his motivations. So if Arya was the ONLY reason he deserted, he would have done it as soon as he heard Arya was to be married to Ramsay. He didn't. He stuck with his post and let Arya be married and raped, because he had taken on the responsibility of Lord Commander, and he knew if he left no one would take care of the wildlings and the threat of the Others - the NW just wanted to slam the gates, eat their winter stores and put their fingers in their ears. It was a threat to the wildlings including Val and Gilly's baby, as well as to Stannis' widow and child, that finally tipped the balance and made him give in to his desire to rescue Arya himself, and also reclaim his emotional link to his entire family that the NW vow made him renounce. We see that clearly in his thoughts at the last. And I fully acknowledge that his emotional link to his family is STRONGEST to Arya, and that every other member of his family takes a poor, distant second or further. Does that satisfy you?

[Colorful Mess]

I think Jon is shown to be very flexible with his vows. He didn't necessarily break the main part of the oath, which is, to be the shield that guards the Realms of Men, and that's enough for him. The rest of the neutrality stuff doesn't make much sense if you have a Madman running around south of the wall (which Jon played a role in inciting), but well, he's still a mad fucker who hunts and flays women, so I think Jon was acting a true knight here. What was always curious to me was that Jon does not go looking for Arya at the end. He wants to find Mel so she can help him find Ramsay. Now that's odd. I would have thought he would have searched after Arya to save her. So I would assume that one of his main motives is vengeance, but it must also be about Ramsay being some kind of threat that he wants to put down. He never really had to choose between duty and love; he wanted to do both. I don't think this technically counts as breaking the "shield" part of the oath (and maybe there is some symbolism there of meeting in the Shield Hall). I think that the duty vs. love dilemma is coming at the very end, and I'm pretty sure it involves his Targaryen heritage.

Edited April 13, 2018 by Colorful Mess

[Sunshinegal]

i think choosing between Duty, Family and Honor is a thread in the books.  GRMM seems to like to write about the conflicts of the heart.  And for many characters in the books and show the conflict of the heart is between Duty, Family and Honor.  Ned chose family over Duty and Honor.  Robb chose Honor over Family and Duty in the books when he married Jeyne Westerling.  In the show Stannis chose Duty over Family and Honor.  I think for all the main characters we will see what wins out - Honor, Duty or Family. 

[Happy Harpy]

There are only four Houses appearing in the title page of GoT's opening credits. Stark, Targaryen, Lannister, Baratheon.

There are three Stark descendants (who are alive and aren't a mystical past/future data bank*). 

Jon Snow found himself in bed with a Targaryen.

Sansa Stark found herself married to a Lannister.

Arya Stark found herself wanting to be a Baratheon's family.

Hmmm. (What? I can put my tinfoil hat on. It's a pretty simple one, though.)

*No Meera as Lady of Winterfell still burns, thank you. Because she'd have been awesome.

[WindyNights]

3 hours ago, Colorful Mess said:

I think Jon is shown to be very flexible with his vows. He didn't necessarily break the main part of the oath, which is, to be the shield that guards the Realms of Men, and that's enough for him. The rest of the neutrality stuff doesn't make much sense if you have a Madman running around south of the wall (which Jon played a role in inciting), but well, he's still a mad fucker who hunts and flays women, so I think Jon was acting a true knight here. What was always curious to me was that Jon does not go looking for Arya at the end. He wants to find Mel so she can help him find Ramsay. Now that's odd. I would have thought he would have searched after Arya to save her. So I would assume that one of his main motives is vengeance, but it must also be about Ramsay being some kind of threat that he wants to put down. He never really had to choose between duty and love; he wanted to do both. I don't think this technically counts as breaking the "shield" part of the oath (and maybe there is some symbolism there of meeting in the Shield Hall). I think that the duty vs. love dilemma is coming at the very end, and I'm pretty sure it involves his Targaryen heritage.

Jon's betraying his oath. 

Jon's main motivation to go south to battle the Boltons is for family specifically to save Arya. 

It's not because he's secretly doing his duty. He's not. 

 

But yes, we'll see this conflict crop up again later on in Jon's story. It's happened numerous times already.

Book 1- Jon choosing between staying at the Wall or flee south to help Robb after Ned's been executed. 

 

Book 2 and 3 - Killing Qhorin, becoming a turncloak and ripping up his personal honor for the greater good.

Choosing between killing an old man for the  greater good or not.

Choosing between staying at the Wall and becoming Stannis' Lord of Winterfell.

Book 5- Everything involving Arya and Stannis.

[Sunshinegal]

1 hour ago, Happy Harpy said:

There are only four Houses appearing in the title page of GoT's opening credits. Stark, Targaryen, Lannister, Baratheon.

There are three Stark descendants (who are alive and aren't a mystical past/future data bank*). 

Jon Snow found himself in bed with a Targaryen.

Sansa Stark found herself married to a Lannister.

Arya Stark found herself wanting to be a Baratheon's family.

Hmmm. (What? I can put my tinfoil hat on. It's a pretty simple one, though.)

*No Meera as Lady of Winterfell still burns, thank you. Because she'd have been awesome.

Meera is awesome.  I wish good things for her future whatever that might be.

It's funny how intertwined all these houses really are.  I will say that the Starks, Lannisters, and Baratheons are especially intertwined. 

[anamika]

6 hours ago, screamin said:

In my posts, I do acknowledge that Arya was indeed a factor in his finally deciding to openly break his oath, and I DID acknowledge that she is the person he loves most in the world, hence likely the most important factor. All I did was point out that she wasn't the only factor, and that Arya by herself was insufficient to cause him to do it - it required as well a threat to the wildlings he'd been spending the whole book defending from the NW and the Others, and to Stannis' widow and child after he'd helped Stannis try to defeat his family's enemies.

 

Which is wrong as I clearly point out in my previous post. She was the only factor and Arya was the cause to make him do it.

6 hours ago, screamin said:

You're quite right. But Jon doesn't know he's in a novel, and the need to spin out an entertaining story for the readers and increase GRRM's page count isn't a part of his motivations. So if Arya was the ONLY reason he deserted, he would have done it as soon as he heard Arya was to be married to Ramsay. He didn't. He stuck with his post and let Arya be married and raped, because he had taken on the responsibility of Lord Commander, and he knew if he left no one would take care of the wildlings and the threat of the Others - the NW just wanted to slam the gates, eat their winter stores and put their fingers in their ears.

He could not - because that would be breaking his NW oaths and involving the NW in the affair of the realm - something which is very wrong to do. There were a lot of things going on at the wall  - things he had to take care of as LC. If he just left to attack WF by himself - he was not only not going to get his sister, but the NW itself would be doomed when it's already in bad shape.

THAT's the story. Jon is conflicted between his personal love for Arya - he is anguished that he cannot do anything for her. But he also needs to stay and do his duty at the NW. It's only at the very end, that he breaks and decides to go all out against Ramsay - come what may. And now he has the resources to do it.

And that decision has vast consequences - the Wildlings are at Castle Black in the shield hall - all the warriors. They are going to immediately take over. The brothers have hostages. There's a giant running lose. Mel is hatching plans. There's mutiny. Jeyne is on her way there, Hardhome is a mess and the Others are probably nearly there - and Jon is lying dead. 

That's why Jon could not save Arya immediately from Ramsay's clutches. The oath of neutrality from the NW is no small thing considering the brothers serving there belong to different houses and kingdoms. If he attacks the Lord of Winterfell directly as Lord Commander, that neutrality is over - the NW is over.

And as you say, if he did not just immediately dump the NW and run off to WF to save Arya herself from rape and torture - there was no way he would have bothered with the sister he is indifferent about. It had to take Jon an entire book before he broke his oaths for Arya. Sansa would have probably not even featured in his thoughts. He would have ignored that hypothetical marriage the same as he ignored her real marriage to the enemy.

6 hours ago, screamin said:

 It was a threat to the wildlings including Val and Gilly's baby, as well as to Stannis' widow and child, that finally tipped the balance and made him give in to his desire to rescue Arya himself, and also reclaim his emotional link to his entire family that the NW vow made him renounce.

I can see that you are going to keep ignoring the part where Jon lingers on thoughts about Arya and makes his decision. I can see that you are not going to acknowledge that Jon did it for Arya and want to make it about the Wildlings and Stannis and his family.

I disagree. GRRM is quite clear when he outlines Jon's thought process and we can see exactly where Jon makes the decision -  I want my bride back … I want my bride back … I want my bride back …and openly declares that this is a breaking of his oaths. It's a momentous decision that changes the story and changes the NW forever and possibly changes Jon himself.

I don't see the point in carrying on this discussion, if we just keep repeating ourselves and I point out the relevant quotes and you ignore it to repeatedly state that Jon did it for Stannis and Wildlings.

Edited April 14, 2018 by anamika

[screamin]

8 hours ago, Eyes High said:

Jon doesn't lose any sleep over Alys being pissed over having to have sex with a wildling,

"Being pissed" is the reaction you have when a waiter brings you a well-done steak when you ordered medium rare. IMO, using it to describe the emotional state of someone who's about to give up her virginity to a man who's a total stranger, who barely speaks her language, in a desperate gamble that this stranger she's going to spend her life with will be less abusive and dangerous than the murderous uncle she's escaping, is a bit dismissive and trivializing, implying that what the person is upset about is NBD. Yes, maybe Alys really IS just as cheerful and lustfully eager to jump the bones of the wildling stranger for her first sexual experience, and live happily ever after with him as she implies she is in her wedding speech, but to me it's equally as likely she's putting a brave face on a frightening, bleak experience that she has to go through with, because the alternatives are (probably) even bleaker. Jon doesn't pick up on this - not because he's not a good person - he IS a good person who's doing the best he can for Alys. He doesn't think about her possible distress with the raw deal she's getting because it isn't REALLY that much different from the raw deal that most highborn ladies get. ALL highborn ladies' marriages are arranged by their male custodial relatives, who can dispose of them without their permission. It's a crapshoot for the lady in question, and if the husband is abusive the ladies have no particular legal recourse if their family and/or the local monarch prefer to overlook it. 

8 hours ago, Eyes High said:

Marrying her against her will and presumably raping her wasn't mistreating her?

You and I agree that it would be mistreating and rape. However, I would say that marrying Arya off to a Frey to have sex with him and bear his children regardless of whether she knows him, likes him or can stand to be in the same room with him would ALSO be mistreatment and rape - and legal Westeros would vehemently disagree with me and say that Catelyn and Robb acted perfectly appropriately.

Even in OUR world, the definition of rape has changed significantly in one human lifetime. In that time, the concept of marital rape came into being when legally, it didn't exist at all. So did date rape. Even in our world, there's been a whole lot of dithering over whether a sexual act counts as rape if there was no actual physical fighting involved, like that case in Italy where it was judged that a woman wearing jeans could not possibly have been raped because ''jeans cannot be removed easily and certainly it is impossible to pull them off if the victim is fighting against her attacker with all her force.'' I would guess that if Sansa's wedding night had gone the way she expected - she lies down obediently and doesn't fight while Tyrion has sex with her - very few Westerosi would call that rape, or call it mistreatment if he had not struck or threatened her. Hell, even the Northerners that Roose Bolton was trying to impress by marrying Ramsey Bolton to a 'Stark' sat passively by when they heard Jeyne crying from being abused horribly night after night. 

This is the world Jon was raised in. Which is not to say he's not a good man even by our standards. He IS a good man, and probably more enlightened by Westerosi standards than most Westeros men. But he simply doesn't see the way the world is set up to be unfair to women who are disposed of like cattle for marriage. He's been soaking in it all his life. It's invisible to him. So he knows that Tyrion is a kind man, and therefore won't beat or threaten Sansa. He also knows Sansa was brought up to be a lady, and therefore will be polite and obedient and won't fight. She WILL be frightened and miserable with her Lannister husband - but this isn't vastly different from many highborn ladies' arranged marriages. I don't think many Westerosi would legally call it rape, and Sansa's life wouldn't be in physical danger. Because of this, and because Jon's attachment to Sansa isn't strong, her fate's not much on his mind.

But Arya - Jon knows her MUCH better than Sansa, and therefore ALSO knows that any arranged marriage would be difficult for her, as she is bent on rejecting the role of 'lady' and would fight being subjugated with all her might - especially against the son of the man responsible for her brother's murder. She would physically fight it - and a brutal man (as Ramsey the flayer undoubtedly seems to be) would physically beat down her resistance. So her experience would be far more openly horrible than Sansa's would be, and her life would be in a lot more danger. All the more reason for her situation to prey on Jon's mind more, because (as I acknowledged) he loves her best.

Edited April 14, 2018 by screamin

[Eyes High]

3 hours ago, Sunshinegal said:

Meera is awesome.  I wish good things for her future whatever that might be.

It's funny how intertwined all these houses really are.  I will say that the Starks, Lannisters, and Baratheons are especially intertwined. 

It will be interesting to see what's left of the main noble houses at the end of ASOIAF:

The Starks will probably be fine, and at least one of them will have kids named Stark: "the wolves will come again" and all that. The Lannisters aren't going to be eradicated as a house anytime soon; even assuming a reverse Red Wedding scenario with Daven Lannister in TWOW and even assuming the end of Tywin's line as some have speculated, there will still be a lot of Lannisport Lannisters running around. There are Freys stashed all over Westeros, so a show-type massacre ensuring their elimination is unlikely. House Arryn has a cadet branch in the Vale even if Sweetrobin and Harry the Heir die. There are lots of Tyrells in the books, so they're not facing extinction, either.

It's looking kind of grim for other houses, though. House Tully's survival depends on the fate of Edmure's son. House Baratheon is hanging by a thread and their succession once Shireen and Stannis die will be down to the legitimization of one of the bastards, and any monarch worth his or her salt would have no incentive whatsoever to legitimize a Baratheon bastard who could potentially challenge them for the throne down the line. House Martell is also in trouble, with Quentyn dead and Arianne likely to let her ambition get the better of her and throw in her lot with an obviously doomed Aegon.

 

25 minutes ago, screamin said:

"Being pissed" is the reaction you have when a waiter brings you a well-done steak when you ordered medium rare. IMO, using it to describe the emotional state of someone who's about to give up her virginity to a man who's a total stranger, who barely speaks her language, in a desperate gamble that this stranger she's going to spend her life with will be less abusive and dangerous than the murderous uncle she's escaping, is a bit dismissive and trivializing, implying that what the person is upset about is NBD.

"Pissed" seems apt to me given her attitude. Alys grouses about inviting a wildling into her bedchamber and wryly jokes about her "failure" to charm Robb when she was a child, but she's ultimately up to the challenge she faces with Sigorn: the last we see of her in ADWD, she's dragging her drunk husband off to dance. Is it realistic that Alys isn't petrified by the prospect of marrying a wildling stranger but rather mildly annoyed? Probably not, but that's the impression GRRM conveys. I guess he figures Northern ladies are tough-minded, and if Alys was brave enough to make a dangerous journey at great personal risk fleeing a murderous uncle, marrying a stranger probably seems like no big deal in the terror department.

 

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You and I agree that it would be mistreating and rape. However, I would say that marrying Arya off to a Frey to have sex with him and bear his children regardless of whether she knows him, likes him or can stand to be in the same room with him would ALSO be mistreatment and rape - and legal Westeros would vehemently disagree with me and say that Catelyn and Robb acted perfectly appropriately.

And yet Cat and Robb were horrified by news of Sansa's forced marriage to Tyrion. They obviously saw a distinction between Sansa's marriage to Tyrion and Catelyn arranging marriages for her other children that she knew they wouldn't like, and not just because Tyrion broke his promise to return Sansa.

 

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I would guess that if Sansa's wedding night had gone the way she expected - she lies down obediently and doesn't fight while Tyrion has sex with her - very few Westerosi would call that rape, or call it mistreatment if he had not struck or threatened her.

If even Tyrion, who in the books is not a very nice person (to put it mildly), had enough self-awareness to know that consummating his marriage to Sansa against her will would be wrong (although only enlightened TV Tyrion uses the word rape), then Jon really has no excuse to believe otherwise.

I do agree that in the world of Westeros a lot of nobles have sex that they wouldn't consider rape but that they don't really want. Catelyn and Ned didn't want to have sex on their wedding night, but they had sex anyway and neither seems to have thought of it as rape. That's distinct from Sansa's situation, of course, where she was forcibly married off as a hostage to a man she found repulsive.

Edited April 14, 2018 by Eyes High

[WindyNights]

7 hours ago, Eyes High said:

It will be interesting to see what's left of the main noble houses at the end of ASOIAF:

The Starks will probably be fine, and at least one of them will have kids named Stark: "the wolves will come again" and all that. The Lannisters aren't going to be eradicated as a house anytime soon; even assuming a reverse Red Wedding scenario with Daven Lannister in TWOW and even assuming the end of Tywin's line as some have speculated, there will still be a lot of Lannisport Lannisters running around. There are Freys stashed all over Westeros, so a show-type massacre ensuring their elimination is unlikely. House Arryn has a cadet branch in the Vale even if Sweetrobin and Harry the Heir die. There are lots of Tyrells in the books, so they're not facing extinction, either.

It's looking kind of grim for other houses, though. House Tully's survival depends on the fate of Edmure's son. House Baratheon is hanging by a thread and their succession once Shireen and Stannis die will be down to the legitimization of one of the bastards, and any monarch worth his or her salt would have no incentive whatsoever to legitimize a Baratheon bastard who could potentially challenge them for the throne down the line. House Martell is also in trouble, with Quentyn dead and Arianne likely to let her ambition get the better of her and throw in her lot with an obviously doomed Aegon.

 

"Pissed" seems apt to me given her attitude. Alys grouses about inviting a wildling into her bedchamber and wryly jokes about her "failure" to charm Robb when she was a child, but she's ultimately up to the challenge she faces with Sigorn: the last we see of her in ADWD, she's dragging her drunk husband off to dance. Is it realistic that Alys isn't petrified by the prospect of marrying a wildling stranger but rather mildly annoyed? Probably not, but that's the impression GRRM conveys. I guess he figures Northern ladies are tough-minded, and if Alys was brave enough to make a dangerous journey at great personal risk fleeing a murderous uncle, marrying a stranger probably seems like no big deal in the terror department.

 

And yet Cat and Robb were horrified by news of Sansa's forced marriage to Tyrion. They obviously saw a distinction between Sansa's marriage to Tyrion and Catelyn arranging marriages for her other children that she knew they wouldn't like, and not just because Tyrion broke his promise to return Sansa.

 

If even Tyrion, who in the books is not a very nice person (to put it mildly), had enough self-awareness to know that consummating his marriage to Sansa against her will would be wrong (although only enlightened TV Tyrion uses the word rape), then Jon really has no excuse to believe otherwise.

I do agree that in the world of Westeros a lot of nobles have sex that they wouldn't consider rape but that they don't really want. Catelyn and Ned didn't want to have sex on their wedding night, but they had sex anyway and neither seems to have thought of it as rape. That's distinct from Sansa's situation, of course, where she was forcibly married off as a hostage to a man she found repulsive.

House Martell is fine. Even if Doran and Arianne die then there's still Trystane. Even if Trystane dies then there's still Doran's cousin, Manfrey Martell, and whatever children Manfrey has. And any of the Sand Snakes can be legitimized.

House Tully has Brynden besides Edmure and his future child. And if all 3 die then one of Catelyn's grandchildren can take the Tully name.

House Baratheon seems like it'll pull through with Show Gendry and Book Edric. 

Book Stannis could always legitimize Edric on his deathbed and in the show, Jon could legitimize Gendry as a Baratheon for his good work.

[Colorful Mess]

17 hours ago, WindyNights said:

Jon's betraying his oath. 

Jon's main motivation to go south to battle the Boltons is for family specifically to save Arya. 

It's not because he's secretly doing his duty. He's not.

I get what you are saying, that he's chosen his family and I agree. However, Arya has already escaped. She's not at Winterfell. He doesn't seem concerned to look for her. The reason he goes off seems to be personal vengeance. But he's doing his duty too by sending Tormund to take care of Hardhome. That's what I mean by not breaking the main part of the oath, guarding the realm. He's still kept it in spirit. If he was going to attack the small folk or something, then he really would be in violation of the original purpose of the Watch. But "win no crowns" is going to be broken at some point anyway. . .Only very few men (Barristan, Aemon) can walk the straight line of duty. Jon makes his own code. 

Edited April 14, 2018 by Colorful Mess

[Colorful Mess]

14 hours ago, screamin said:

I don't think many Westerosi would legally call it rape, and Sansa's life wouldn't be in physical danger. Because of this, and because Jon's attachment to Sansa isn't strong, her fate's not much on his mind.

Yes to all of this ^ He can't put himself in Sansa's shoes. Or, he has less concern because hey, Sansa likes dancing and weddings! And was to go South to get married anyway so at some point, so she must have prepared herself! But he can empathize with Arya because he knows she would hate every second of it. He tries to picture Arya in a wedding dress; meanwhile, Sansa was the one who was forced into one. That is every woman's nightmare, by the way. You are all happy that you are getting fitted for a new dress and then you are told it's to be your WEDDING DRESS and you are to be married that same day? WHAT THE FUUUUUKKKK. Jon has no clue. It hit Sansa much harder because her own desires were used as weapons against her.

Let him feel like an ass for expending all of this energy on Arya when it wasn't even her. Instead it was Sansa and Jeyne who got the raw deal. Let him r e a l i z e this, then realize he has another sister who needs him. Unless the point of this argument is to insist that Jon "I love my family" Snow can only love one sister, and only one sister, and that Jon having familial love for Sansa is b l a s p h e m y.

Edited April 14, 2018 by Colorful Mess

[screamin]

14 hours ago, Eyes High said:

"Pissed" seems apt to me given her attitude. Alys grouses about inviting a wildling into her bedchamber and wryly jokes about her "failure" to charm Robb when she was a child, but she's ultimately up to the challenge she faces with Sigorn: the last we see of her in ADWD, she's dragging her drunk husband off to dance. Is it realistic that Alys isn't petrified by the prospect of marrying a wildling stranger but rather mildly annoyed? Probably not, but that's the impression GRRM conveys.

It's what Alys says and does on her wedding night to a total stranger she knows nothing about except what little Jon has gleaned from the wildlings - and even this is nothing he himself knows about the prospective character of the husband, just second-hand info from people he's not all that familiar with either. In an ideal arranged marriage, the parents vet the prospective groom for character flaws like abusiveness and allow the bride and groom to meet to discover compatibility - and if they're VERY nice parents they even give the bride the option to reject a prospective groom. Of course, in Westeros marriages GENERALLY fall short of the ideal - but getting a total stranger you know nothing about who barely understands your tongue is still unusually far from the ideal. Alys' speech could be read at face value as optimism and a bit of healthy lust toward her new husband. Or, it could be read as a woman trying to give herself a pep talk to go through an experience she's scared of, into a marriage that may be a good thing or a living hell, that she's desperate to start off on the right foot with. Jon took it at face value, unquestioningly. I don't judge him as a bad person for it - he's done everything a good man could do under the circumstances, and actions are what counts. It just shows that Jon takes the Westeros worldview of what a woman has to put up with in marriage for granted, without questioning it.

And this is a world that would look at Danaerys being sold by her brother to a man for military gain who literally knows ONE WORD of her language and call that a proper marriage and legally  not rape at all, regardless of whether the wedding night came off as it did in the book or on the show. That kind of worldview does affect the people who live in it, especially if they don't SEE for themselves the bad effects of the things their world has deemed right and proper. 

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And yet Cat and Robb were horrified by news of Sansa's forced marriage to Tyrion. They obviously saw a distinction between Sansa's marriage to Tyrion and Catelyn arranging marriages for her other children that she knew they wouldn't like, and not just because Tyrion broke his promise to return Sansa.

----

If even Tyrion, who in the books is not a very nice person (to put it mildly), had enough self-awareness to know that consummating his marriage to Sansa against her will would be wrong (although only enlightened TV Tyrion uses the word rape), then Jon really has no excuse to believe otherwise.

 

In a sense, you're making my point for me. Cat and Robb had only brief interactions with Tyrion that were either neutral or decidedly negative. They have no reason  to think of him as anything but the demonic nasty Lannister Imp who would do anything Tywin would do. They also still had some hope to win the war or at least fight it to an advantageous draw, so besides losing their beloved Sansa to any hope of a prisoner exchange, and coming to terms with the likelihood they'll never see her again, they're also dealing with the fact that Tywin has gained a permanent wedge into the possibility of a Lannister eventually gaining possession of WF even if they do manage to fight to a draw in THIS war.

Jon, OTOH, has spent a lot more time with Tyrion, and seen much more of his good side - his sympathy for the downtrodden, his awareness of injustice, his sensitivity in perceiving Jon's own sense of his unjust situation as a bastard, empathizing with him and confiding in him about the injustices he himself has suffered, his wisdom in seeing the mistakes Jon was making in his attitude to the NW and helping him see the problems with that in a way that actually improved Jon's life. Jon also saw nothing of Tyrion's bad side, except his tendency to make witty remarks at other people's expense - and that's easy to forgive if you find the remarks funny and you're not usually the butt of the joke. Also, unlike Cat and Robb, ever since Jon decided to stay in the NW, he's been pretty much resigned to having the outcome of the Lannister/Stark war out of his hands no matter how it ends. Remember, when he repeatedly tells Stannis that WF belongs to Sansa, Stannis taunts him with the prospect of WF being ruled over by the horrid Lannister Imp. Jon has no angry reaction to the idea of Tyrion ruling where his father sat. He DOES, at other times, feel sad and anxious at the idea of WF burned, being only 'a shell' and no Stark there at all. One gets the feeling that to Jon, if the Lannisters MUST win, Tyrion and Sansa living in WF would not be the absolute worst outcome he could think of.

Given all that, I think it's reasonable that Jon would assume that in terms of behavior toward polite, biddable Sansa, Tyrion would not be any worse a husband than other men. He's even right about this, as far as it goes; most Westerosi would consider Tyrion's behavior toward Sansa during their 'marriage' more forbearing and kind than the norm; even Sansa does. The trouble with the usual Westerosi worldview of marriage - the girl is married off by her parents and must put up with the husband - is that people don't see what's wrong with it unless the results are shoved in their faces. Rather like Tyrion didn't really see just how bad it was to deflower a girl who was frightened, miserable and unwilling even if she was physically cooperating, until they were actually both naked with his hand on her breast and SEEING just how miserable and unwilling she was. But for every Westerosi husband who did stop at that point, I guarantee you that a thousand Westerosi husbands didn't stop, and wouldn't have been judged ill by Westerosi society for that.

Arya, though? Jon knows very well Arya would reject the least notion of being a biddable lady to anyone. Even Robb knew that Arya would absolutely HATE the idea of being married off to an unknown Frey - even though the Freys were allies. A girl who aspires to be a knight would be especially resistant to the idea that she should submit to a Stark enemy instead of trying to kill him, hence her fight against him would be harder. But Jon knows that even being married off unwillingly to an ally wouldn't be that much better for Arya. Jon is moved when Stannis writes to him that he will try to save Arya from Ramsey - but then he winces when Stannis goes on to write that if he does, he will give Arya a worthier husband. Stannis means this to be kind and reassuring to Jon, but Jon knows very well that Arya would still find giving in to a husband she hadn't chosen or wanted to be hateful and oppressive, even if that husband was an ally instead of an enemy. So Jon knows that Arya's marriage to this enemy - a merciless flayer who will beat down Arya's inevitable resistance - is definitely a lot worse in potential for harm and horror to Arya than Sansa's marriage to that enemy - a man Jon considers fundamentally decent, who wouldn't physically brutalize her for a resistance that Sansa would be too 'lady-like' to put up anyway.

I forgot to mention this:

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Making Sansa knowingly complicit is a tactic LF has used before, but he has also previously used her as an unknowing instrument to get her to do things she would otherwise balk at (wearing poison that would be used to murder Joffrey). I don't know which tack he would choose when it came to SR. He seems content for SR to be poisoned slowly while letting Sansa believe (as she apparently does) that he can still live a long life.

LF has gradually increased Sansa's involvement and her sense of guilt and blame for the things he's done ("Do you want more blood on your pretty hands, sweetling?") I think he knows that killing SR would be a turning point for her, and if he does it without her knowledge he risks her turning against him - and with what she knows, she could get him hanged while sincerely denying any serious guilt herself. If, however, he insists that SHE must be the one to kill SR, and makes her agree to it - then she will never dare denounce him, because she knows that as his accomplice she would hang beside him. He would likely get a henchman like Lothar Brune or Corbray to shadow her to make sure she carries out her orders. But she IS making friends with Brune - though I agree she has not got a friendship with Mya yet, and NOBODY can make friends with Corbray. I also agree with you that Myranda is likely to be treacherous. But Sansa knows very well that Myranda's social status is dependent on LF's patronage. I don't think she'll consider that Myranda would sacrifice herself for 'Alayne's' sake, however friendly they are.

Thanks for reminding me about Corbray, I hadn't remembered that.

Edited April 14, 2018 by screamin

[Colorful Mess]

Can someone explain why Littlefinger would murder Sweetrobin. As far as I can tell, SR is his only legitimacy in the Vale. Preston Jacobs says "Littlefinger collects wards." While I think Jacobs' theories are the crackiest of crack, I think that's at least true. He has Sweetrobin, Sansa, and Tyrek Lannister. He snatched up Jeyne Poole. He wants more - so Harry is next.

Lothor has the right of it - Harry is an "upjumped squire." I don't think Littlefinger prefers Harry over Sweetrobin to accomplish whatever he wants to accomplish. Sweetrobin has a far better claim, can't suspect manipulation, and wouldn't be believed anyway. He at least can say that he is Sweetrobin's protector and father by marriage, which is pretty solid. It seems like he's giving him small doses of sweetsleep so he can be trotted out at social events as a banner of legitimacy. He doesn't want the Lords to know how sickly Sweetrobin actually is, because they are watching for any sign of mistreatment. LF wants him to look happy and healthy. That's why Alayne said they can't have him slung over the back of a mule strung out on milk of the poppy. It's about keeping up appearances, while also controlling his epilepsy. Littlefinger also would not want to be seen as complicit in Sweetrobin's murder. He may be drawing Sansa into the Harry plot in case Sweetrobin does die anyway though. So, maybe Harry is his Plan B to get out ahead of a war over succession in the Vale. Like SR is dead; oh no! Well, look here's Harry! And look how smitten he is with Alayne, who is actually the niece of Lady Lysa. Successful coup #2.

Either way, its hard to know what his motives are because Alayne doesn't know the depth of his plans. She doesn't even know that he used her best friend to take her "claim" from her. He's always told her one thing while doing another. 

ETA: Another issue is Littlefinger's debt scheme. He's agreed to buy Ayna Waynwood's debts if she will allow Alayne to court Harry. But maybe he doesn't really care about her marrying Harry, and that's just what he's telling her. Would he be trying to set up Alayne and Harry so he would get a bastard on her? Would he be trying to use Harry as collateral at some point if Anya doesn't back him? I'm just thinking out loud here.

Edited April 14, 2018 by Colorful Mess

[screamin]

2 hours ago, Colorful Mess said:

Can someone explain why Littlefinger would murder Sweetrobin. As far as I can tell, SR is his only legitimacy in the Vale. Preston Jacobs says "Littlefinger collects wards." While I think Jacobs' theories are the crackiest of crack, I think that's at least true. He has Sweetrobin, Sansa, and Tyrek Lannister. He snatched up Jeyne Poole. He wants more - so Harry is next.

Lothor has the right of it - Harry is an "upjumped squire." I don't think Littlefinger prefers Harry over Sweetrobin to accomplish whatever he wants to accomplish. Sweetrobin has a far better claim, can't suspect manipulation, and wouldn't be believed anyway. He at least can say that he is Sweetrobin's protector and father by marriage, which is pretty solid. It seems like he's giving him small doses of sweetsleep so he can be trotted out at social events as a banner of legitimacy. He doesn't want the Lords to know how sickly Sweetrobin actually is, because they are watching for any sign of mistreatment. LF wants him to look happy and healthy. That's why Alayne said they can't have him slung over the back of a mule strung out on milk of the poppy. It's about keeping up appearances, while also controlling his epilepsy. Littlefinger also would not want to be seen as complicit in Sweetrobin's murder. He may be drawing Sansa into the Harry plot in case Sweetrobin does die anyway though. So, maybe Harry is his Plan B to get out ahead of a war over succession in the Vale. Like SR is dead; oh no! Well, look here's Harry! And look how smitten he is with Alayne, who is actually the niece of Lady Lysa. Successful coup #2.

Either way, its hard to know what his motives are because Alayne doesn't know the depth of his plans. She doesn't even know that he used her best friend to take her "claim" from her. He's always told her one thing while doing another. 

I would guess that because SR is a minor and LF his regent, everyone would know that any orders SR gave actually are LF's. And because nobody likes or trusts LF, he won't be able to make any sweeping policy changes or start the wars he wants to start to get more power. Not to mention that SR himself isn't a figure who naturally inspires enthusiasm. Harry, OTOH, is an adult and can start giving orders as soon as he ascends the throne. He's a summer knight to the bone, full of himself and thinking he's unbeatable because he won tourneys, and that the world owes him shit because he's of good blood. And he's handsome and popular, so the Vale will happily follow him to war. Give him a pretty girl  of the highest birth with a claim that will let him get TWO kingdoms instead of one, and a sob story that will let Harry march around with an army acting the hero, and LF can lead him around by the nose as the power and money behind the throne. And if things start to collapse around LF, he might be forced to bring Harry in early so that Harry as ruler of the Vale can order Bronze Yohn to stop persecuting LF.

[Colorful Mess]

@screamin but the only person who stands in his way is Bronze Yohn, and he has more control over Harry. It seems that Littlefinger is fixated on Harry because he wants to take away Bronze's only asset. He wants to collect another ward/heir. The knights of the Vale will do whatever their Lord says; I think he could start a war, have Sweetrobin sign the paperwork, and no one would raise an issue because the other Lords Declarant are either bribed or bought. Moreover, they're old school - they follow the heir. Not someone who is the great-nephew of Lord Arryn. Sweetrobin is still Lord Arryn's son. This is why Bronze Yohn wants to foster him. Whoever controls Sweetrobin controls the Vale and that's why Littlefinger has to keep him alive. He's probably the most well protected child in the seven kingdoms right now. The sweetsleep thing seems to be more about him being negligent - not *murder*

[Happy Harpy]

Sweetrobin is a half-wit (and I'm being generous here) so dead or alive, I don't see him matter more in the grand scheme of things than a fart in the middle of a storm. (Is the actor even back for S8?)

Littlefinger is going to die. He died in the show, he's going to die in the books. Maybe Mya Stone will be the executioner if he's offed in the Vale -although I would love it if Arya puts him down like the rat he is in the books, too- but he's done. Whatever his schemes are, they're going to die with him and their relevance in the endgame? Zilch. Petty pointless politics < an army of ice zombies.

[screamin]

6 hours ago, Colorful Mess said:

@screamin but the only person who stands in his way is Bronze Yohn, and he has more control over Harry. It seems that Littlefinger is fixated on Harry because he wants to take away Bronze's only asset. He wants to collect another ward/heir. The knights of the Vale will do whatever their Lord says; I think he could start a war, have Sweetrobin sign the paperwork, and no one would raise an issue because the other Lords Declarant are either bribed or bought. Moreover, they're old school - they follow the heir. Not someone who is the great-nephew of Lord Arryn. Sweetrobin is still Lord Arryn's son. This is why Bronze Yohn wants to foster him. Whoever controls Sweetrobin controls the Vale and that's why Littlefinger has to keep him alive. He's probably the most well protected child in the seven kingdoms right now. The sweetsleep thing seems to be more about him being negligent - not *murder*

LF bought Anya Waynwood's debt, but even that only got him her grudging permission to allow Harry to marry Alayne if he wants to, not to pressure him to do it. And there are several other lords Declarant besides Waynwood, Corbray and Royce. LF thinks he can finesse them all, but I think LF has begun overestimating himself. He was given a year of grace to show he can be a good Lord Protector and rule the Vale well. I think starting a war of rebellion with the Crown in that time would be outside his mandate. It isn't that easy for a ruler to call his bannermen to war. Remember how much trouble Robb had to get his men to go along with him in rebelling. He had to agree to declare himself king before they would obey him (an ultimately disastrous decision). And Robb had a really good justification for going to war, a willingness to march at the head of his army and the prowess to be a good miltary leader. LF is the regent of a sickly boy who's too scared of scissors to get a haircut, and he himself would never march at the head of any army.  Giving him political favors for money is one thing, but nobody actually likes him, and I suspect very few people would trust him enough to let him send their sons out to die in battle at his order while he sits comfortably at his account books in the Vale.

[Sunshinegal]

Just now, screamin said:

LF bought Anya Waynwood's debt, but even that only got him her grudging permission to allow Harry to marry Alayne if he wants to, not to pressure him to do it. And there are several other lords Declarant besides Waynwood, Corbray and Royce. LF thinks he can finesse them all, but I think LF has begun overestimating himself. He was given a year of grace to show he can be a good Lord Protector and rule the Vale well. I think starting a war of rebellion with the Crown in that time would be outside his mandate. It isn't that easy for a ruler to call his bannermen to war. Remember how much trouble Robb had to get his men to go along with him in rebelling. He had to agree to declare himself king before they would obey him (an ultimately disastrous decision). And Robb had a really good justification for going to war, a willingness to march at the head of his army and the prowess to be a good miltary leader. LF is the regent of a sickly boy who's too scared of scissors to get a haircut, and he himself would never march at the head of any army.  Giving him political favors for money is one thing, but nobody actually likes him, and I suspect very few people would trust him enough to let him send their sons out to die in battle at his order while he sits comfortably at his account books in the Vale.

Good point.  Plus Robb had the Stark name which means something in the North.  The Vale isn't King's Landing.  Littlefinger's schemes won't work so well there and only worked before because he can manipulate Lysa.  And his schemes worked with Cat before because she had brotherly affection for him.  Neither Lysa and Cat knew what he have become.  I think Sansa knows what Littlefinger is and will use that against him.  Littlefinger is overconfident and that will blow up in his face.

[Eyes High]

On 4/14/2018 at 6:06 AM, WindyNights said:

House Martell is fine. Even if Doran and Arianne die then there's still Trystane. Even if Trystane dies then there's still Doran's cousin, Manfrey Martell, and whatever children Manfrey has. And any of the Sand Snakes can be legitimized.

House Tully has Brynden besides Edmure and his future child. And if all 3 die then one of Catelyn's grandchildren can take the Tully name.

House Baratheon seems like it'll pull through with Show Gendry and Book Edric. 

Book Stannis could always legitimize Edric on his deathbed and in the show, Jon could legitimize Gendry as a Baratheon for his good work.

I doubt Brynden's ever going to have any kids (I also kind of like the fan theory that Brynden is low key not into the ladies), and the survival of Edmure's future child is by no means established.

Jon legitimizing Gendry or Edric would be a dumb move on his part--and Book Jon is no dummy--and who would recognize a false king legitimizing his offspring?

 

22 hours ago, screamin said:

It just shows that Jon takes the Westeros worldview of what a woman has to put up with in marriage for granted, without questioning it.

I think we can agree that while Jon is a good guy, he has a hard-nosed attitude towards young girls getting married off to men they wouldn't otherwise want to marry, except where Arya is concerned. I do disagree that Jon is going to have any kind of revelation or epiphany over his blase attitude towards Sansa's marriage to Tyrion down the line, but as with everything else, we'll have to wait and see.

 

11 hours ago, Sunshinegal said:

 I think Sansa knows what Littlefinger is and will use that against him.  Littlefinger is overconfident and that will blow up in his face.

I think we can all agree on that.

Edited April 15, 2018 by Eyes High

[Colorful Mess]

12 hours ago, screamin said:

LF bought Anya Waynwood's debt, but even that only got him her grudging permission to allow Harry to marry Alayne if he wants to, not to pressure him to do it. And there are several other lords Declarant besides Waynwood, Corbray and Royce. LF thinks he can finesse them all, but I think LF has begun overestimating himself. He was given a year of grace to show he can be a good Lord Protector and rule the Vale well. I think starting a war of rebellion with the Crown in that time would be outside his mandate. It isn't that easy for a ruler to call his bannermen to war. Remember how much trouble Robb had to get his men to go along with him in rebelling. He had to agree to declare himself king before they would obey him (an ultimately disastrous decision). And Robb had a really good justification for going to war, a willingness to march at the head of his army and the prowess to be a good miltary leader. LF is the regent of a sickly boy who's too scared of scissors to get a haircut, and he himself would never march at the head of any army.  Giving him political favors for money is one thing, but nobody actually likes him, and I suspect very few people would trust him enough to let him send their sons out to die in battle at his order while he sits comfortably at his account books in the Vale.

Does Littlefinger even wants to go to war, like Robb? Actual swords on the ground doesn't seem like his style. What he seems comfortable doing is making the Lords of Westeros dependent on him for resources. His debt scheme is proof of this. I mean forcing the Iron Bank to call in the debts to all of the Lords of Westeros, and he's there to provide a bail out? Then his grain hoarding, and making the price of grain go up? With schemes like these, who needs an army. I do think he is overestimating his abilities, though. He's a Gatsby figure in the story (GRRM's favorite book, btw).

ETA: If I recall the Vale knights really, really wanted to join Robb's war, but Lysa kept them out. I think they're all revved up and ready to fight, especially if its in the service of restoring Robb's legacy somehow. He wouldn't have to do much to rally the troops for this cause, at least.

Edited April 15, 2018 by Colorful Mess

[Eyes High]

2 hours ago, Colorful Mess said:

Does Littlefinger even wants to go to war, like Robb? Actual swords on the ground doesn't seem like his style. What he seems comfortable doing is making the Lords of Westeros dependent on him for resources. His debt scheme is proof of this. I mean forcing the Iron Bank to call in the debts to all of the Lords of Westeros, and he's there to provide a bail out? Then his grain hoarding, and making the price of grain go up? With schemes like these, who needs an army. I do think he is overestimating his abilities, though. He's a Gatsby figure in the story (GRRM's favorite book, btw).

 

GRRM also said that LF was inspired by Thomas Cromwell. Both Gatsby and Cromwell had ignominious ends, so it's probably not going to end well for Littlefinger, either.

What other acknowledged character inspirations are there? There are a lot of unacknowledged inspirations or possible parallels (Simon "Snowlock"/Jon Snow, Caligula/Joffrey, etc.), but which ones has GRRM actually acknowledged? Here are the ones I remember other than LF:

Aegon the Conqueror: William the Conqueror

Robert: Edward IV

Tywin: Earl of Warwick (the Kingmaker)

Tyrion: Richard III

Stannis: George Baker's portrayal of Tiberius in I, Claudius, Henry VII, Louis XI

There are of course the acknowledged historical influences (the Wars of the Roses, the Black Dinner, the Crusades, the Hundred Years War, Hadrian's Wall, etc.), but in terms of works that GRRM has acknowledged as influences on ASOIAF, I think the big ones are LOTR, the Memory, Sorrow and Thorn trilogy, and Maurice Druon's Accursed Kings books.

Edited April 15, 2018 by Eyes High

[WindyNights]

1 hour ago, Eyes High said:

GRRM also said that LF was inspired by Thomas Cromwell. Both Gatsby and Cromwell had ignominious ends, so it's probably not going to end well for Littlefinger, either.

What other acknowledged character inspirations are there? There are a lot of unacknowledged inspirations or possible parallels (Simon "Snowlock"/Jon Snow, Caligula/Joffrey, etc.), but which ones has GRRM actually acknowledged? Here are the ones I remember other than LF:

Aegon the Conqueror: William the Conqueror

Robert: Edward IV

Tywin: Earl of Warwick (the Kingmaker)

Tyrion: Richard III

Stannis: George Baker's portrayal of Tiberius in I, Claudius, Henry VII, Louis XI

There are of course the acknowledged historical influences (the Wars of the Roses, the Black Dinner, the Crusades, the Hundred Years War, Hadrian's Wall, etc.), but in terms of works that GRRM has acknowledged as influences on ASOIAF, I think the big ones are LOTR, the Memory, Sorrow and Thorn trilogy, and Maurice Druon's Accursed Kings books.

GRRM also acknowledged Edward Longshanks as an influence for Tywin Lannister. 

GRRM has also said that various Stuart princess are the inspiration for Daenerys.

And Varys is based on a lot of oriental eunuchs as a group rather than any one person.

[WindyNights]

5 hours ago, Eyes High said:

I doubt Brynden's ever going to have any kids (I also kind of like the fan theory that Brynden is low key not into the ladies), and the survival of Edmure's future child is by no means established.

Jon legitimizing Gendry or Edric would be a dumb move on his part--and Book Jon is no dummy--and who would recognize a false king legitimizing his offspring?

 

I think we can agree that while Jon is a good guy, he has a hard-nosed attitude towards young girls getting married off to men they wouldn't otherwise want to marry, except where Arya is concerned. I do disagree that Jon is going to have any kind of revelation or epiphany over his blase attitude towards Sansa's marriage to Tyrion down the line, but as with everything else, we'll have to wait and see.

 

I think we can all agree on that.

I don't think Book Jon is going to legitimize any Baratheons. That's something that someone like show Jon would do although the show has proven that it doesn't care about house names since Jon is still referred to as Jon Snow and Dorne was ruled by Sands. So maybe Gendry will just take the Baratheon name and there won't be an explanation for it and we just have to assume he's been legitimized or he takes control and he's not legitimized but the show won't care.

If you were to ask me about the books specifically then I'd say Stannis legitimizes Edric (potentially Gendry but I doubt it) before he reaches his end goal whether that be death or becoming part of the Night's Watch. 

Thatll hold weight with the Stormlords who already like Edric and he's already been raised as a noble so it all works out.

[GraceK]

45 minutes ago, WindyNights said:

. That's something that someone like show Jon would do although the show has proven that it doesn't care about house names since Jon is still referred to as Jon Snow and Dorne was ruled by Sand

Since Show Jon is technically named Aegon Targaryen, there could be an interesting parallel ( if he is in fact endgame king) if he legitimatizes Gendry as a Baratheon to Aegon the Conqueror making his bastard half brother Orys Baratheon a lord and Hand of the King and founding that house to begin with. Right? :) an Aegon creates House Baratheon and Recreates House Baratheon 

Edited April 15, 2018 by GraceK

[Colorful Mess]

2 hours ago, Eyes High said:

There are of course the acknowledged historical influences (the Wars of the Roses, the Black Dinner, the Crusades, the Hundred Years War, Hadrian's Wall, etc.), but in terms of works that GRRM has acknowledged as influences on ASOIAF, I think the big ones are LOTR, the Memory, Sorrow and Thorn trilogy, and Maurice Druon's Accursed Kings books.

 

Two more:

1. The Trojan war, specifically the fight between Achilles vs. Hector. "Who is the hero and who is the villain? The hero of one side is the villain of the other side." 

2. Lord Byron. He is a major influence. GRRM quotes Byron's poems at length in Fevre Dream, and has talked about how he writes Byronic heroes in his fiction. This is why I can't rule out Jonsa or Jonarya, because Byron had a torrid affair with his half-sister. This experience became the focal point of his poems. Byron wrote plays where forbidden lovers who thought they were siblings found out later that they were cousins.  GRRM: "At least one or two readers had put together the extremely SUBTLE and OBSCURE clues that I’d planted in the books and came to the right solution…" Now, I'm not saying that these readers explicitly picked up on Byron, but I would say that Sansa interacts with a knight named Byron in the Vale. Byron's backstory and work could qualify as an obscure reference to Jonsa. I've been looking for similarities in Byron's work in Arya's chapters to see if there is anything there, but haven't found it yet.

Edited April 15, 2018 by Colorful Mess

[GraceK]

I’m still not ruling out  SanSan ?

Edited April 15, 2018 by GraceK

[screamin]

8 hours ago, Colorful Mess said:

Does Littlefinger even wants to go to war, like Robb? Actual swords on the ground doesn't seem like his style. What he seems comfortable doing is making the Lords of Westeros dependent on him for resources. His debt scheme is proof of this. I mean forcing the Iron Bank to call in the debts to all of the Lords of Westeros, and he's there to provide a bail out? Then his grain hoarding, and making the price of grain go up? With schemes like these, who needs an army. I do think he is overestimating his abilities, though. He's a Gatsby figure in the story (GRRM's favorite book, btw).

ETA: If I recall the Vale knights really, really wanted to join Robb's war, but Lysa kept them out. I think they're all revved up and ready to fight, especially if its in the service of restoring Robb's legacy somehow. He wouldn't have to do much to rally the troops for this cause, at least.

 

He's told Sansa that he eventually plans to reveal her as Sansa Stark. This would also reveal his own treachery to the Lannister crown in hiding the accused murderer of Good King Joffrey and being her probable accomplice in that murder. The Lannisters would pretty much HAVE to demand his head and declare war if it's not immediately forthcoming. LF is quite aware of this, says he's planned for it, even given the war a name: The War of Three Queens. (He apparently assumes Cersei will still be in power, and possibly still fighting with Margaery as the third queen; I doubt he's really taking Danaerys into account as a factor). Of course, he could be making the whole thing up to confuse Sansa for some reason, but his insistence that Sansa win over Harry fits in with what he's telling her perfectly. While he isn't telling her everything by a long shot, I think he IS telling her the truth about this war and why he wants it. He wants her as his captive, ideal audience, a younger, obedient and pliable Catelyn to admire his cleverness and applaud him as he tricks and foils all the highborn snobs who foiled him the first time around with her, as well as an accomplice.

Yes, he could keep SR on the throne, and try to get the things he's aiming for through him, but there are drawbacks. First, SR really IS sickly. Epilepsy is a serious disease, especially in a world where the only medicine that keeps down the seizures is also apparently deadly with chronic use. If SR dies suddenly in a seizure or because of his toxic medicine, LF loses his power base in the Vale - and he also lays himself open to charges of neglect or even murder of SR if the maester, to save his own ass, blames LF for ordering him to give an OD of sweetmilk. LF prefers to have backup plans for dangerous contingencies, and he'd rather have those contingencies crop up on his own timetable, not suddenly messing up his other complex arrangements.

Second, we're accustomed to seeing our political leaders order wars from Washington halfway across the globe and see them done without their physical participation. But the medieval-ish world of Westeros expects their leaders to participate. Tywin rode at the head of his army, Robb, Stannis and Renly at theirs. Even Joffrey was expected to at least stand with his soldiers at the walls at Blackwater, and as per Lancel morale started to collapse Cersei ordered him to abandon the battlements and get back to the safety of the keep. Yes, the Vale did, and probably DOES want to ride off to war, but if LF orders them to do it, those who don't much trust him would immediately want to know how he benefits, and why SHOULD they risk their lives to carry out his doubtful strategies for his own murky motivations when he isn't putting any skin of his own in the game. And his political enemies would immediately wonder just WHAT he is planning to get up to in the Vale while he sends them away to where they can't keep an eye on him. Those who are especially unfriendly with him would be wise to consider it would be VERY easy for LF to have them murdered by a paid accomplice during battle (as Tyrion was nearly murdered). They would not be eager to march at HIS orders. LF says clearly that they would not follow him because they don't like him, and I think he's simply right about that.

On 4/14/2018 at 5:00 PM, Happy Harpy said:

Sweetrobin is a half-wit (and I'm being generous here) so dead or alive, I don't see him matter more in the grand scheme of things than a fart in the middle of a storm. (Is the actor even back for S8?)

I honestly don't think he's really a half-wit. I think his noticing that Harry the Heir wants him dead shows that he's not. I think he's been so coddled and spoiled all his life that he's never had to do anything that cost the least effort. If he objected to any unpleasant task, his mother allowed him to stop it immediately and even believed and told everyone that it would be unhealthy for him to do it, so he only learned things that he enjoyed and found easy (like memorizing ALL the tales of the Winged Knight). His mother never weaned him, told him the world was full of peril, and then died before ever letting him really leave the womb. All that spoiling and fear left him a really unpleasant kid, and I'd probably hate to babysit him, but I still feel kind of sorry for him.

Edited April 16, 2018 by screamin

[MarySNJ]

On 4/13/2018 at 11:02 PM, Eyes High said:

It will be interesting to see what's left of the main noble houses at the end of ASOIAF:

The Starks will probably be fine, and at least one of them will have kids named Stark: "the wolves will come again" and all that. The Lannisters aren't going to be eradicated as a house anytime soon; even assuming a reverse Red Wedding scenario with Daven Lannister in TWOW and even assuming the end of Tywin's line as some have speculated, there will still be a lot of Lannisport Lannisters running around. There are Freys stashed all over Westeros, so a show-type massacre ensuring their elimination is unlikely. House Arryn has a cadet branch in the Vale even if Sweetrobin and Harry the Heir die. There are lots of Tyrells in the books, so they're not facing extinction, either.

It's looking kind of grim for other houses, though. House Tully's survival depends on the fate of Edmure's son. House Baratheon is hanging by a thread and their succession once Shireen and Stannis die will be down to the legitimization of one of the bastards, and any monarch worth his or her salt would have no incentive whatsoever to legitimize a Baratheon bastard who could potentially challenge them for the throne down the line. House Martell is also in trouble, with Quentyn dead and Arianne likely to let her ambition get the better of her and throw in her lot with an obviously doomed Aegon.

 

"Pissed" seems apt to me given her attitude. Alys grouses about inviting a wildling into her bedchamber and wryly jokes about her "failure" to charm Robb when she was a child, but she's ultimately up to the challenge she faces with Sigorn: the last we see of her in ADWD, she's dragging her drunk husband off to dance. Is it realistic that Alys isn't petrified by the prospect of marrying a wildling stranger but rather mildly annoyed? Probably not, but that's the impression GRRM conveys. I guess he figures Northern ladies are tough-minded, and if Alys was brave enough to make a dangerous journey at great personal risk fleeing a murderous uncle, marrying a stranger probably seems like no big deal in the terror department.

 

And yet Cat and Robb were horrified by news of Sansa's forced marriage to Tyrion. They obviously saw a distinction between Sansa's marriage to Tyrion and Catelyn arranging marriages for her other children that she knew they wouldn't like, and not just because Tyrion broke his promise to return Sansa.

 

If even Tyrion, who in the books is not a very nice person (to put it mildly), had enough self-awareness to know that consummating his marriage to Sansa against her will would be wrong (although only enlightened TV Tyrion uses the word rape), then Jon really has no excuse to believe otherwise.

I do agree that in the world of Westeros a lot of nobles have sex that they wouldn't consider rape but that they don't really want. Catelyn and Ned didn't want to have sex on their wedding night, but they had sex anyway and neither seems to have thought of it as rape. That's distinct from Sansa's situation, of course, where she was forcibly married off as a hostage to a man she found repulsive.

 

Okay, it’s been a while since I read the book, but my impression was that Alys agreed to marry Sigorn because it meant she would be Lady of Karhold and could not be forced against her will to marry her cousin who would certainly dispose of her once he got an heir.  Sigorn had an army she would be able to rely upon to defend her claim. Maybe I read too much into it, but I took it that is was a contract, not a love match, but Alys was willing to do what she had to in order to give her the means to preserve her claim, even if she had to invite a wildling into her bedchamber. Plus, I got the impression the Sigorn was more scared of Alys than she was of him at their wedding. The marriage was to Alys’ benefit, not her uncle’s. Alys was able to avoid what was forced upon Sansa. 

Catetlyn and Robb’s marriage contracts with Frey, all were to the benefit of the Starks by creating alliances they needed. Now, if Arya had been a woman grown, not in hiding and forced to marry the whiny brat of Frey, that might have been a different situation. We’ll never know.  

Edited April 16, 2018 by MarySNJ

[Eyes High]

5 hours ago, WindyNights said:

GRRM has also said that various Stuart princess are the inspiration for Daenerys.

Various Stuart princesses? Because they were a pretty varied bunch.

5 hours ago, WindyNights said:

I don't think Book Jon is going to legitimize any Baratheons. That's something that someone like show Jon would do

Agreed, and TV Jon may well do it (depending on House Baratheon's book endgame) for the warm fuzzy feelings that will produce in the audience.

3 hours ago, Colorful Mess said:

Two more:

1. The Trojan war, specifically the fight between Achilles vs. Hector. "Who is the hero and who is the villain? The hero of one side is the villain of the other side." 

2. Lord Byron. He is a major influence. GRRM quotes Byron's poems at length in Fevre Dream, and has talked about how he writes Byronic heroes in his fiction. This is why I can't rule out Jonsa or Jonarya, because Byron had a torrid affair with his half-sister. This experience became the focal point of his poems. Byron wrote plays where forbidden lovers who thought they were siblings found out later that they were cousins.  

In the outline, Jon did have a passionate mutual love with a sister, but it sure wasn't Sansa.  And while I don't think romantic Jon/Arya will be a thing in ASOIAF, Jon is reminded by Ygritte of Arya, not Sansa, even though they look nothing alike.

2 hours ago, GraceK said:

I’m still not ruling out  SanSan ?

Anything's possible, but the writers have made a number of decisions that render it unlikely in the show (in my opinion).

I think Book SanSan fans will cry foul if nothing comes of it in the books, and given how GRRM has teased the ship in the books, I wouldn't blame them. Still, if SanSan is not a thing in Season 8, I think that would rule out SanSan being endgame in the books. Book SanSan being endgame was always a long shot, though; Sandor telling Sansa a hound will die for you but never lie to you, etc. etc.

Speaking of the show influencing ASOIAF endgame predictions, though, I'm increasingly leaning towards Sansa dying to make way for one of Jon/Bran/Arya to end up with Winterfell as GRRM likely intends (and to clear the way for what I imagine will be Book Tyrion's bachelor endgame). Book Sansa could still hook up with Sandor before her death, of course.

10 minutes ago, screamin said:

I honestly don't think he's really a half-wit. I think his noticing that Harry the Heir wants him dead shows that he's not. 

Good point.

[Colorful Mess]

4 hours ago, screamin said:

Those who are especially unfriendly with him would be wise to consider it would be VERY easy for LF to have them murdered by a paid accomplice during battle (as Tyrion was nearly murdered). They would not be eager to march at HIS orders. LF says clearly that they would not follow him because they don't like him, and I think he's simply right about that.

They call him the "Lord of Misrule" - its difficult for me to imagine how killing Robert, stealing Harry from Bronze Yohn, and propping Harry up as his puppet would help him look more legitimate. Lothor calls Harry upjumped (and I tend to believe him; he's described as sober and observant). Alayne describes Littlefinger the same way. Two upjumped people ruling in the Vale? Sounds even more sketchy. 

Instead of killing him out right, there seems to be considerable effort to "toughen" Sweetrobin up so that he can, at bare minimum, participate on the political stage. We saw a semblance of this in the show, with the pathetic fight scene and LF and Royce looking on. I'm also basing this on:

Quote

 

“Why won’t they leave us be?” wailed Alayne. “We never did them any harm. What do they want of us?”
“Just Lord Robert. Him, and the Vale.”

--

“He sleeps twelve hours a day,” Petyr said. “I require him awake from time to time.”

--

“The Lord of the Eyrie cannot descend from his mountain tied up like a sack of barleycorn.” Of that Alayne was certain. They dare not let the full extent of Robert’s frailty and cowardice become too widely known, her father had warned her. ”

--

“Robert should have an older boy about him too. A promising young squire, say. Someone he could admire and try to emulate.” Petyr turned to Lady Waynwood. “You have such a boy at Ironoaks, my lady. Perhaps you might agree to send me Harrold Hardyng.”

--

“Later there was a feast of sorts, though Petyr was forced to make apologies for the humble fare. Robert was trotted out in a doublet of cream and blue, and played the little lord quite graciously. ”

 

I think he plans to keep Harry and Sweetrobin alive, and foster them together. He gets a twofer: Harry can lead the troops while Sweetrobin provides legitimacy. It just so happens that Alayne's plans to have a tourney to create a Kingsguard for him assists in this. He will probably rig the tourney so that Harry will win.

If Sweetrobin does die, he can blame it on Alayne anyway (although he has enough dirt on her; I dont think he needs more). But having them both alive works too. If anything Sweetrobin alive doesn't work against his plans, as long as has Harry in the mix. And the only person who might wonder if he would be sending them off to a Tyrion-like betrayal would probably be Corbray. The rest of the knights seem as dumb as Ser Vardis: willing to do whatever their Lord says and win glory, and if that doesn't work, Littlefinger will offer them promises from his largesse. 

I agree Sweetrobin is aware. Yes, he knows Harry is waiting for him to die so he can take the Vale. The question is, why would Littlefinger hasten this if he's going to die anyway? I see it as him playing all options, but killing him would be too risky and quite unnecessary. 

Edited April 16, 2018 by Colorful Mess

[Colorful Mess]

4 hours ago, Eyes High said:

In the outline, Jon did have a passionate mutual love with a sister, but it sure wasn't Sansa.  And while I don't think romantic Jon/Arya will be a thing in ASOIAF, Jon is reminded by Ygritte of Arya, not Sansa, even though they look nothing alike.

The outline definitely has some major points that were fulfilled, but other stuff sounds like it was dropped or merged with other people. For instance, Sansa choosing Joffrey and her child over her own blood seems to have been merged with Dany's arc, because she was originally supposed to kill Drogo to avenge Viserys. Instead, Dany chooses to betray her family and side with her husband/child like Sansa was supposed to. 

In the outline he envisioned Arya as a love interest who was seeking his protection at the Wall. This is why I'm interested to see if Sansa does the same in the books like she did in the show. I'm torn on how much the not-thinking matters. Estrangement is partially why Byron fell in love with Augusta; they met when they were children briefly but didn't have a sibling-like relationship. On the other hand, Jon thinking of Arya could be priming readers for eventual incestuous thoughts over Arya. I do wonder how much he changed along the way because outlines don't really fit his gardener style.

My views on Sandor/Sansa are that he's supposed to represent the broken man in Septon Meribald's speech - such a person is extremely dangerous and is not intended as a love interest. This is why they had him steal from a family in the show, to illustrate this point. Moreover, throughout Sansa and Sandor's interactions in the books, he's always mentioned alongside Dontos, Tyrion, or Sweetrobin. He's too cruel while others are too weak. It's a Goldilocks parable. She's looking for protection, and anything looks like a raft when you're drowning. However, the true knight for her is Brienne. Sandor is in recovery, and is probably on the road to learning how to be knight, but he's still at Step 1 in the 12-step program. Love/romance would only complicate this. I think of the TV trope of the alcoholic guy getting out of recovery, popping back into the girl's life, while the girl has already moved on. 

Edited April 16, 2018 by Colorful Mess

[Eyes High]

5 hours ago, Colorful Mess said:

The outline definitely has some major points that were fulfilled, but other stuff sounds like it was dropped or merged with other people. For instance, Sansa choosing Joffrey and her child over her own blood seems to have been merged with Dany's arc, because she was originally supposed to kill Drogo to avenge Viserys. Instead, Dany chooses to betray her family and side with her husband/child like Sansa was supposed to. 

 

ASOIAF Sansa still betrayed her family, she just did it in a different way (by selling out Ned's plans to Cersei). It has nothing to do with Dany.

5 hours ago, Colorful Mess said:

In the outline he envisioned Arya as a love interest who was seeking his protection at the Wall. This is why I'm interested to see if Sansa does the same in the books like she did in the show.

GRRM with his public comments about TV Sansa's arc has strongly implied that she won't.

Quote

On the other hand, Jon thinking of Arya could be priming readers for eventual incestuous thoughts over Arya. 

Quite possibly, although TV Jon's love for Dany would seem to rule it out.

Quote

My views on Sandor/Sansa are that he's supposed to represent the broken man in Septon Meribald's speech - such a person is extremely dangerous and is not intended as a love interest.

While Book Sandor is hardly romantic lead material, and SanSan is capital-p Problematic for a number of reasons, this is GRRM we're talking about, whose idea of grand fictional love stories seems to have stalled in 1970s Harlequin romance territory:

1. Book Sansa constantly thinks of Sandor and often in relation to romance or sex.

2. Book Sansa has invented a memory of a kiss with Sandor which never happened, and this fantasy gets more and more elaborate every time she revisits it.

3. Book Sansa keeps Sandor's bloody cloak and stashes it in her chest, even though she can't explain why she kept it. And going by the "cloak=marriage" symbolism, Sansa has covered herself with Sandor's cloak twice (once when Joffrey beat her, and once at Blackwater).

4. ASOIAF's other romances are fucked up, with abusive or coercive elements: Jaime/Cersei, Dany/Drogo, Jon/Ygritte, etc.

5. GRRM fancast Ron Perlman as the Hound. Ron Perlman played the lead in Beauty and the Beast, a show with a central romance.

6. GRRM has a poster hanging in his house of this piece from one of the ASOIAF calendars.

7. GRRM has admitted that "there's something there" with Sandor and Sansa in the books.

I don't care for the ship, and I doubt it's endgame, but I also can't really argue with those who think otherwise. The only other book "ship" for which there's more evidence is Jaime/Brienne. However, the show has heavily emphasized Jaime/Brienne while downplaying Sandor/Sansa (in favour of emphasizing Sandor's fatherly and less problematic relationship with Arya), so we'll see what happens in Season 8 on the SanSan front.

Quote

Sandor is in recovery, and is probably on the road to learning how to be knight, but he's still at Step 1 in the 12-step program. Love/romance would only complicate this. I think of the TV trope of the alcoholic guy getting out of recovery, popping back into the girl's life, while the girl has already moved on. 

Maybe, maybe not. The brothers on the Quiet Isle couldn't manage to geld his horse, which is a possible crude metaphor for Sandor not being "neutered" on the Quiet Isle, either.

Edited April 16, 2018 by Eyes High

[Happy Harpy]

13 hours ago, GraceK said:

I’m still not ruling out  SanSan ?

I thought of another issue. Sandor is a fighter and Beyond the Wall showed he's still a mighty one. The Stargaryen forces can't waste him with protection duty, so he's going to spend a lot of his time fighting at the front. He'll have more time to bond and interact with characters who are on the battlefield with him; whereas Sansa will have more time to bond and interact with the non-fighters like her (maybe not even Tyrion or Sam if the extra's info are legit and they're manning doors) -I imagine, during "breather" scenes inside WF if the battle lasts an episode or more.

Since they scratched the romantic dimension between them, I don't think there will be time to develop a full-blown romance. Hinting they might get together in the end? As I said before, I don't think it can be ruled out completely. I agree nevertheless that the show's treatment or lack thereof of their romance so far doesn't bode well for an endgame.

11 hours ago, screamin said:

I honestly don't think he's really a half-wit. I think his noticing that Harry the Heir wants him dead shows that he's not. I think he's been so coddled and spoiled all his life that he's never had to do anything that cost the least effort. If he objected to any unpleasant task, his mother allowed him to stop it immediately and even believed and told everyone that it would be unhealthy for him to do it, so he only learned things that he enjoyed and found easy (like memorizing ALL the tales of the Winged Knight). His mother never weaned him, told him the world was full of peril, and then died before ever letting him really leave the womb. All that spoiling and fear left him a really unpleasant kid, and I'd probably hate to babysit him, but I still feel kind of sorry for him.

Even the dumbest creatures have an instinct for survival and feel the danger. I agree that Lysa gave him no chance with her education...but she also passed her mental instability on him imo. The boy's hobby, his delight, is to watch people "fly" through the Moon Door. I wouldn't call him an unpleasant kid but a little psychopath, a real one, since he has no empathy for others and no notion of right and wrong, just his fickle whim.

[GraceK]

1 hour ago, Eyes High said:

While Book Sandor is hardly romantic lead material, and SanSan is capital-p Problematic for a number of reasons, this is GRRM we're talking about, whose idea of grand fictional love stories seems to have stalled in 1970s Harlequin romance territory:

1. Book Sansa constantly thinks of Sandor and often in relation to romance or sex.

2. Book Sansa has invented a memory of a kiss with Sandor which never happened, and this fantasy gets more and more elaborate every time she revisits it.

3. Book Sansa keeps Sandor's bloody cloak and stashes it in her chest, even though she can't explain why she kept it. And going by the "cloak=marriage" symbolism, Sansa has covered herself with Sandor's cloak twice (once when Joffrey beat her, and once at Blackwater).

4. ASOIAF's other romances are fucked up, with abusive or coercive elements: Jaime/Cersei, Dany/Drogo, Jon/Ygritte, etc.

5. GRRM fancast Ron Perlman as the Hound. Ron Perlman played the lead in Beauty and the Beast, a show with a central romance.

6. GRRM has a poster hanging in his house of this piece from one of the ASOIAF calendars.

7. GRRM has admitted that "there's something there" with Sandor and Sansa in the books.

I don't care for the ship, and I doubt it's endgame, but I also can't really argue with those who think otherwise. The only other book "ship" for which there's more evidence is Jaime/Brienne. However, the show has heavily emphasized Jaime/Brienne while downplaying Sandor/Sansa (in favour of emphasizing Sandor's fatherly and less problematic relationship with Arya), so we'll see what happens in Season 8 on the SanSan front.

This was really what I was saying. I don’t see it happening show wise, but at least in the books there is textual evidence that there is something there.

all this crap and pretend “subtext” and “super obscure” clues about Jonsa are delusions .  “Only really smart people can see all the subtle and really super duper hints that GRRM hid in his texts that foreshadow Jonsa. Even though he has come out and said ASOIAF refer to Jon And Dany, he’s just saying that to trick people!!!!!” ? It’s chasing shadows and getting really tiring. I feel like Regina George. Stop trying to make Jonsa happen! It’s not gonna happen! ??

Edited April 16, 2018 by GraceK

[Eyes High]

1 hour ago, Happy Harpy said:

I thought of another issue. Sandor is a fighter and Beyond the Wall showed he's still a mighty one. The Stargaryen forces can't waste him with protection duty, so he's going to spend a lot of his time fighting at the front. He'll have more time to bond and interact with characters who are on the battlefield with him; whereas Sansa will have more time to bond and interact with the non-fighters like her (maybe not even Tyrion or Sam if the extra's info are legit and they're manning doors) -I imagine, during "breather" scenes inside WF if the battle lasts an episode or more.

Going off past seasons, I would expect to see more meaningful interactions between Sandor and Arya. Still, I expect some sort of acknowledgment that Sandor and Sansa interacted in the past; it would be weird if there weren't.

34 minutes ago, GraceK said:

This was really what I was saying. I don’t see it happening show wise, but at least in the books there is textual evidence that there is something there.

I agree with both points. As previously mentioned on this thread, it's possible that GRRM hasn't told D&D anything about what Book Sandor is up to past AFFC, which would lead to the conclusion that Sansa must not end up with Sandor (since otherwise GRRM would have told them). It's possible that TV Sandor's endgame is completely different from that in the books.

If I had to guess, based on the show, I'd say TV Sandor is fatally wounded after fighting Frankengregor and Arya puts him out of his misery. That's just a guess, though.

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I feel like Regina George. Stop trying to make Jonsa happen! It’s not gonna happen! ??

Yes. With Jaime/Brienne, Sandor/Sansa, and (platonic) Jon/Arya, it's clear that when GRRM does want the reader to sit up and take notice of a relationship, he doesn't pussyfoot or make the reader work for it: it's right there. Jaime getting hard when he sees Brienne naked is not subtle. Arya tearing up at the thought that Needle is Jon Snow's smile is not subtle. Brienne thinking that Jaime looked like a god is not subtle. Sandor ranting to Arya about how badly he feels about how he treated Sansa is not subtle. Sansa fantasizing about a kiss that never happened--even if it's also Sansa doing her usual thing over papering over unpleasant truths (like Sandor assaulting her) with dumb fantasies--is not subtle.

If you have to squint really, really hard to find evidence for your ship in ASOIAF, it's probably not there.

Edited April 16, 2018 by Eyes High

[screamin]

1 hour ago, Happy Harpy said:

Even the dumbest creatures have an instinct for survival and feel the danger. I agree that Lysa gave him no chance with her education...but she also passed her mental instability on him imo. The boy's hobby, his delight, is to watch people "fly" through the Moon Door. I wouldn't call him an unpleasant kid but a little psychopath, a real one, since he has no empathy for others and no notion of right and wrong, just his fickle whim.

IMO, the dumbest people take people's words at face value instead of looking at the hidden intention beneath. While anyone can be afraid of everything, it takes at least a minumum of alertness to be correctly aware of the political reasons why one particular person's words of fealty are false and what specific danger he poses, IMO.

As for him being a real psychopath - an adult screaming 'make him fly' about people would certainly be one...but he's only six when we first see him in the books, and he's learned all he knows of ruling by watching from his mother's bosom (literally).  She's told him she's executing bad men who are dangerous and that this is the right and proper thing to do. There's a reason that psychopathy and Antisocial Personality Disorder aren't diagnosed till the patient is an adult. It's because empathy is to a great extent a learned thing, and children haven't fully learned it yet, and learn it less well depending on how they're raised. You can find a LOT of unthinking cruelty among 6 year olds. "The boys throw stones at the frogs in jest, but the frogs die in earnest." Not every kid who throws stones at frogs grows up to be a psychopath. To a six year old watching his mother executing people, these people are just 'bad men'; they aren't yet 'real,' just as six year olds who throw stones at frogs haven't really got it in their heads yet that the frogs feel pain and die.

If we saw a kid SR's age watching horribly violent R-rated movies on video and applauding at the deaths because the bad guys merit them, I don't think we'd immediately write off the kid as a hopeless sociopath. We'd blame the adult who let him view the movies and taught him to indiscriminately applaud the violence, and we'd take the stone out of his hand when he's about to throw it at a frog and explain why it's wrong. It may not work, but most kids DO grow out of it. And another sign of a sociopath is that they have no strong emotional bonds to anything or anyone. I think SR doesn't fit that profile, as he has formed an emotional bond to Sansa after losing his mother. For her sake he faces his fear of walking along that mountain path, and when he thinks he's hurt her feelings in Sansa's last chapter, he's horrified, showing that he is capable of empathizing with her feelings. I do think he has some hope to grow up to be a better person. But GRRM being what he is, I expect he'll show SR making some heartwarming progress toward that goal before he kills him off unmercifully.

[OhOkayWhat]

57 minutes ago, GraceK said:

all this crap and pretend “subtext” and “super obscure” clues about Jonsa are delusions .  “Only really smart people can see all the subtle and really super duper hints that GRRM hid in his texts that foreshadow Jonsa.

It's almost the same thing some Sansan fans do with the show: looking for subtext and very obscure clues hinting a Sansan endgame.

[Eyes High]

8 minutes ago, OhOkayWhat said:

It's almost the same thing some Sansan fans do with the show: looking for subtext and very obscure clues hinting a Sansan endgame.

To be fair, there is a fair bit of text and subtext in the books pointing to SanSan which rightly or wrongly has convinced them that SanSan is endgame, so they’re not crazy for expecting to see it in the show. 

[GraceK]

3 minutes ago, OhOkayWhat said:

It's almost the same thing some Sansan fans do with the show: looking for subtext and very obscure clues hinting a Sansan endgame.

If that’s a jab at me your barking up the wrong tree. I made it very clear I didn’t see it happening. Sorry though if I struck a nerve for you if your a Jonsa shipper ??

[OhOkayWhat]

Just now, Eyes High said:

To be fair, there is a fair bit of text and subtext in the books pointing to SanSan which rightly or wrongly has convinced them that SanSan is endgame, so they’re not crazy for expecting to see it in the show. 

Precisely that's the thing that make my point more evident: the existence of "something" (whatever it is) in the books makes more clear the lack of interest of the showrunners about Sansan in GoT.

3 minutes ago, GraceK said:

If that’s a jab at me your barking up the wrong tree. I made it very clear I didn’t see it happening. Sorry though if I struck a nerve for you if your a Jonsa shipper ??

It's not a jab, sorry if it's felt like that. I was just pointing a common issue with many shippers, not only Jonsa ones. And if it was not clear, I'm not one of them; if anything I ship the Stark girls with some peace in their lives.

[GraceK]

Just on a different topic, show wise, what is the actual deal with the Vale now that Littlefinger is dead? Who are the Knights of the Vale really loyal too? They rode out for Sansa because Robin Arryn TOLD them too, whose to say they would have if he didn’t? I know they are loyal to the North and House Stark, I don’t doubt that, and I know they wanted to get involved in the war of the five kings, but their honor bound them to the Vale and they didn’t. If he decided , like Lysa did in season 1 not to get involved, they would have stayed in the vale right? So now what? 

Robin is lord of the Vale and Sansa is in Winterfell with his knights and  Royce, who’s in the Eyrie with Robin and what’s gonna happen? 

Edited April 16, 2018 by GraceK

[Colorful Mess]

For clarity, I ship a Stark reunion, and my main wish for the story is for Jon to become a more dark grey/Jaime-like figure who does controversial things in service to his family. But saying a theory is too subtle makes no sense to me. GRRM is a subtle writer, and the clues for a Jon and Sansa connection are extremely subtle.

GRRM on readers who read too fast:

"[it can] be frustrating, if we feel that they are missing all the grace notes and little subtleties and clever allusions and ironies and turns of phrase that we sweated blood over for so long. I try to write books that will stand up to rereading, so that every time you go through you will find more to appreciate…" - 

So we should be analyzing the subtext, allusions, grace notes, imagery, ect, re-reading stuff multiple times...none of it is off limits or "reaching", IMO, especially if the allusions are literary in nature (i.e. Byron). Beauty and the Beast imagery could fit Sandor as much as Jon. Sandor could be a foil for Jon. This is why her story right now is her looking for protection in a seedy world, and she settles for what she can get. The show suggests we should have higher standards for her: Brienne.

His editor on his three-fold revelation strategy:

"...it is easier to tell when he’s overplaying a hand and revealing things too early if you don’t actually know going in what will happen. That said, now that I’ve realized his three-fold revelation strategy, I see it in play almost every time. The first, subtle hint for the really astute readers, followed later by the more blatant hint for the less attentive, followed by just spelling it out for everyone else. It’s a brilliant strategy, and highly effective."

So, possibly, whatever happens to Sansa is still in the subtle stage. I don't think she's in the third stage yet; it's too early.

Most importantly, only ONE or TWO people predicted the right endgame, and it wasn't a popular theory:

"I’ve wrestled with [the issue of fan speculation online], because I do want to surprise my readers. I hate predictable fiction as a reader, I don’t want to write predictable fiction. I want to surprise and delight my reader and take them in directions they didn’t see coming … At least one or two readers had put together the extremely subtle and obscure clues that I’d planted in the books and came to the right solution. So what do I do then? Do I change it? I wrestled with that issue, and I came to the conclusion that changing it would be a disaster, because the clues were there. You can’t do that, so I’m just going to go ahead. Some of my readers who don’t read the boards, which thankfully there are hundreds of thousands of them, will still be surprised and other readers will say: ‘see, I said that four years ago, I’m smarter than you guys.‘"

So if he says the clues are obscure, that's permission to find things - especially if they make sense for the characters and service the larger story.

I'll relate this to Dempsie's interview about the ending not being a well-popularized theory. What fits "not popular" + "extremely subtle," "obscure," "clever"? I have some ideas that involve Jonsa and and some that don't. Keeping my options open.

Re: Jon/Dany "romance" - it was pathetic and lazy. They put no effort into it at all, so now I'm wondering if he's even in love with her. They didn't HAVE to do this paint-by-number romance. And the more I've rewatched, the more sketchy it looks. Everything he says to her post throne room is a sugarcoated confidence boost, there is even a fake kneel. Why write it so superficially, if Jon's true feelings are an earth shattering love of the ages? Not seeing it.

[Eyes High]

1 hour ago, Colorful Mess said:

For clarity, I ship a Stark reunion, and my main wish for the story is for Jon to become a more dark grey/Jaime-like figure who does controversial things in service to his family. But saying a theory is too subtle makes no sense to me. GRRM is a subtle writer

He sure seems to think he's subtle when it comes to the mysteries of his books, as the quotes you included suggest, but is he? Fans picked up on R+L=J 20 years ago, and even D&D, so often excoriated by diehard book fans for their inadequate knowledge of the series, figured it out on their own. A fan group member not only figured out R+L=J but also predicted that Jon would marry his aunt Daenerys in 1997. GRRM has also implied that he's shocked (shocked!) that readers have responded to SanSan, even when it's blatantly obvious in the books. 

Quote

Re: Jon/Dany "romance" - it was pathetic and lazy. They put no effort into it at all, so now I'm wondering if he's even in love with her.

Not sure how you get around Bran intoning "She loved him and he loved her" over a montage of Rhaegar and Lyanna marrying and Jon and Dany banging. We have no reason to doubt that Rhaegar and Lyanna's love was genuine (in the show, anyway), so why should we doubt that Jon and Dany's love is equally genuine?

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They didn't HAVE to do this paint-by-number romance. 

Maybe not, but D&D have subordinated pretty much everything to plot. Jon and Dany couldn't meet before Season 7 due to plot restrictions, so they had to meet, overcome mutual distrust, and fall deeply in love in seven episodes. That's a pretty tall order for any writer, and D&D--much like GRRM--are not gifted when it comes to writing convincing romance. (Too bad they didn't keep Vanessa Taylor around, who wrote The Shape of Water.) Jon/Dany is written about as convincingly as Grey Worm/Missandei, and I have yet to see any suggestion that Grey Worm is only pretending to care for Missandei because he's pushing some secret agenda.

I will say that GRRM and D&D have something in common: when they want you to ship something, they'll make it very clear, whether it's TV Bronn opining that Jaime and Brienne want to bang, or Book Jaime getting hard at the sight of a naked Brienne. If you're in any doubt whatsoever about an ASOIAF ship or GOT ship, that's because it's not going anywhere. That leads to some very interesting questions of course when GRRM pushes a ship very hard that D&D seem to have forgotten about, which is what seems to have happened with TV SanSan.

1 hour ago, OhOkayWhat said:

Precisely that's the thing that make my point more evident: the existence of "something" (whatever it is) in the books makes more clear the lack of interest of the showrunners about Sansan in GoT.

Pretty much, although again it makes you wonder when something that seems a big part of one character's arc has been more or less scrubbed from the show. With Sandor and Sansa still alive in the show and six episodes to go, it's too early to declare TV SanSan dead, but it's not looking good.

Edited April 16, 2018 by Eyes High

[GraceK]

The series is literally called a song of Ice and Fire. GRRM told D&D that the series has been about those two. Their love story was always going to happen. If you think the actors didn’t have chemistry or the show writers didn’t sell it, that’s valid. But don’t state as facts that it’s bullshit or that Jon has a nefarious scheme in mind or that it’s not true when the creator himself has stated it is and it has actually happened onscreen. I love how people will jump through all sorts of hoops and make shit up out of thin air to justify what they want to happen and completely IGNORE canon and factual evidence to push their own fiction.

[Colorful Mess]

1 hour ago, Eyes High said:

He sure seems to think he's subtle when it comes to the mysteries of his books, as the quotes you included suggest, but is he? Fans picked up on R+L=J 20 years ago, and even D&D, so often excoriated by diehard book fans for their inadequate knowledge of the series, figured it out on their own. A fan group member not only figured out R+L=J but also predicted that Jon would marry his aunt Daenerys in 1997. GRRM has also implied that he's shocked (shocked!) that readers have responded to SanSan, even when it's blatantly obvious in the books. 

The quotes weren't about R+L=J - it's just too popular. He's been hounded by people asking him about Jon's parents and coming up with their own shipping ideas for years. What he's saying is that only ONE or TWO people figured "something" out, out of the thousands of people he's met at cons, signings, and interviews over the years. Are you suggesting that only one or two people - people who are rabid enough fans to meet him in public - came to him with their theory that Jon is the song of Rhaegar and that he'll fall in love with Dany? That Jon/Dany is a minor theory that only a handful of people have guessed?

On his blog, GRRM responded to a fan who insisted that Sandor/Sansa was romantic:

These folks can ship what they want, but why is GRRM pushing back against this bad boy=sexy fetish they have going on? Why does he bring up Sam, who has a lot more similarities to Jon? More dangerous than romantic = to me this sounds like he's writing "The Broken Man" (Septon Meribald's speech). I believe Sansa is suppressing trauma, not thinking about how sexy he is. Its a credit to her that she even takes pity on an old guy who shows up drunk in her bed and holds a knife to her throat.

There are no comparable scenes like Missandei/Greyworm for Jon/Dany. The former had a confession, first kiss, removal of clothes, smiles. There was no need for a Greek chorus to tell the audience what to think. There was no other shots that got in the way of the romance or made the audience think "this is wrong" (accidental incest). Jon did not tell Dany something to the effect that she was "his weakness." He didn't talk about being afraid to love her or that he was afraid for her. In fact, Jorah and Tyrion are the only ones who seem to be afraid for something bad happening to her.

Even the scene with arguably the most "romantic" imagery - the scene on the boat in Eastwatch - is still all wrong. Because she's saying one thing and doing another. She says she'll fight the Night King but appears to still want a ceasefire. It's contradictory, which I've brought up before. He goes from "My people will never accept a Southern ruler" to "You deserve the North! They'll love you!" What...the hell? 

Edited April 16, 2018 by Colorful Mess