Completely Unspoiled Speculation Thread

[DemosthenesKey]

Well, according to the Wall Folk, the Wildlings are SUPER close to the Wall. If Good ol' GoT follows through with its usual function of E9 being a real whammy, then either Tyrion's going to die/escape in E9, or the Wild hits the Wall in E9. Whatever doesn't happen then will probably be the smash ending of 10. So I'm reserving judgement on Jon Snow and his pouty face until season end.

[abelard]

either Tyrion's going to die/escape in E9, or the Wild hits the Wall in E9. Whatever doesn't happen then will probably be the smash ending of 10. So I'm reserving judgement on Jon Snow and his pouty face until season end.

 

I think it will probably be both (Tyrion's death/scape and the Wildling War at the Wall).  I do believe that Jon will end up leading the defense and it will be an exciting episode for him.  I like the idea of Jon as a leader of men and a great soldier, it's waiting for his character to actually get a chance to do those things that makes me terribly bored with him.  This season we got one episode of him swordfighting and so I hope the Wildling attack gives him good action-y action to do.  Jon Snow sitting and standing around, issuing Cassandra-like warnings to his superiors, fretting with his brothers over cups of mead...my gods, there are no words for how dull that is for me.

[Snowblack]

I'm betting on episode 9 being an epic battle episode a la Blackwater, even though they'll likely find time for other events too.  I'm wondering who will be left once the battle is over.  I get the feeling it's going to be a blood bath.  I don't think the Night's Watch can stop the Wildlings from coming though to the south.  They can just hope to survive the day and keep them from overrunning Castle Black.  Bolton can inherit the Wildling problem as they head south and get his own taste of a ruthless adversary.  I hope there is some force to back up what remains of the Night's Watch before the White Walkers arrive.

 

Honestly, I don't care whether they kill Tyrion or he escapes.  The outcome is essentially the same.  I'm betting that Tyrion will escape, but I'm a lot less confident in my prediction after last week's certainty that Oberyn would prevail.  I'm hoping they don't kill Shae in front of Tyrion before whatever happens to Tyrion takes place.  Tywin did say Tyrion's whore would hang, and I think he meant it. 

[abelard]

I'm hoping they don't kill Shae in front of Tyrion before whatever happens to Tyrion takes place.  Tywin did say Tyrion's whore would hang, and I think he meant it.

 

Gee, Snowblack, thanks for putting it in my head that this next ep could be even worse than I fear it will be.  Maybe Tyrion will not only be executed, maybe he'll be executed after he sees the woman he loved, who betrayed him, hung right in front of him.  Sheesh!!!!!!!!!  Horrible, much??!!??!!!

[WhiteStumbler]

Snowblack gets one reluctant "like" - good speculation, horrible to contemplate. :-P

[AlphaLine]

I just now got around to watching the episode due to time issues. And wow, Jon Snow just can not stop being useless. The moment the burping whores showed up I was sure it was Mole's town.. and it was .. BUT, Jon Snow didn't go to Mole's town to rescue Gilly! I mean, he just sat around and did nothing. What? Can someone kill this guy already? And Sam is even more useless, if that were even possible.

 

Still a little shocked over the developments in this episode, and I don't mean just the duel. Dany has gone into royal queen bitch mode and Sansa apparently turned into evil!Sansa and so on. Not too worried about Tyrion, he'll survive.

[stillshimpy]

That sounds about right, snowblack, I doubt Tyrion is done paying for the terrible folly of having truly loved someone in that land.  It's not  over until the love of your life dies horribly, preferably in front of your face.  Doesn't even matter if it's romantic love, but that's a bonus, apparently.  It's almost too horrible to contemplate, but let's see, here's a partial list:  

 

Ned dies, having sacrificed his honor to try and at least live for his children.  Instead he dies a traitor in front of Arya and Sansa, but not before Arya got to see the majority of the household staff she grew up with, slaughtered and strewn all over and then having to murder a boy her age.  Sansa, meanwhile will not only  see her father die in front of her, but that comes on top of thinking that she had saved him personally (which is an added little detail that really sucks).  She finds out Joffrey isn't just a monster, he's the sort of monster she didn't even suspect existed.  She gets to do things like gaze upon her father's head, listen daily to threats against her remaining family, watch whatever Joffrey has in store for the likes of Jesters and occasionally serve as something to be beaten for his pleasure.  

 

That's story of, that's the glory of love folks!  But wait, it doesn't end there! 

 

Bran and Rickon Stark will get to watch two Maesters they grew up with either murdered, or dying.  Both because of a young man they grew up with, trusting as a brother (daddy issues on this show, man alive) which doesn't sound anywhere near as bad, but Rickon is meant to be seven at that point.  This is on top of knowing that their father is dead, before taking up life on the lam. 

 

You've got to win a little (by taking up life on the lam, of course!) lose a little (or you know, lose everything, as the case may be), and always have the blues a little or set new azure standards all the frakking time, with no respite nor rest, as the case may be.  

 

Then of course, there's Robb Stark who....oh sweet lords of mercy....where to even begin?  So he does the terribly UnStarkian Thing by Breaking his word and going for it with love.  For this he gets to see his pregnant wife bleeding out through the baby (a detail that never stops impressing me for its absolute savage brutality) , unable to help her, as their deaths are treated as entertainment.  Bonus, he's dying horribly the entire time and his mother, who has already had one child nearly murdered, knows her husband is dead, knows the world she lives in is at war and crazy to boot, gets to watch her first born killed in front of her as he calls out for her.  Whee! Oh and on top of that?  Gets to think it is all her fault and possibly punishment for not loving her husband's illegitimate child. 

 

But it's not just the Starks who get to sup from that buffet of misery, punishment and horror for the great crime of love.  

 

As long as there's the two of us,
we've got the world and all its charms.
And when the world is through with us,
we've got each other's arms.

 

Or if you're Dany?  You were traded to a giant, murderous warrior, who thankfully turned out to have a soft spot for you and you actually fell in love!  Well that was stupid of you, haven't you seen this show?!?  You're in it, after all!  So...Dany, yeah.  Loves Drogo, is pregnant with his child and in her concern for him, enlists the help of a woman she thinks will view her favorably, and for arguably good reasons, given Dany's lack of world exposure.  So Drogo gets to die of a festering war wound, but not before Witchy Woman turns him into a Living Spud, apparently steals the life of her unborn child and does so intentionally to stop the Horde from rolling across the grasslands.  Not that I can entirely blame her for that, but it was still extra hard on Dany.  

 

Who then spends the next few seasons steeping in every form of betrayal after that, as if the witch cursed her with exactly that , "you will end up betrayed by anyone you have even a tiny bit of fondness for, have fun with that chickadee!" must roll through Dany's mind.  Most recently by Jorah, who Dany seemed to consider her emotional family.  Dany will eventually go mad from this shit, won't she? 

 

Anyone else?  Oh yeah, Jeez.  Elaria.  "Oh look, my paramour had his head crushed in front of me. Even though he'd essentially won the fight, he fell for the oldest trick in the book and sadly, we've yet to invent horror movies ('cause we live the plot instead) so he apparently didn't know that the killer is never, ever dead and will always, always, always unrealistically spring back to life just long enough to rain murderous destruction once more! The Mountain was actually Michael Myers crossed with Jason and with a dash of Freddy Kruger thrown in! Oh my eyes, oh my paramour's folly!" Also, somewhere Oberyn has a wife and children who presumably loved him, but perhaps not much, as they'll only have to live with the descriptions of his death and the absence of his presence.  For the rest of their live.  Love, it's grand stuff on this show. 

 

So what are the chances that Tyrion will have to watch Shae die horribly? Oh....I'm guessing at least good, if not into the higher percentages.  

Edited June 3, 2014 by stillshimpy

[AlphaLine]

Also, what is up with these infinite number of lannister cousins who can be pulled out of the ass every now and then. Seriously it's practically a running joke at this point. These second-class lannisters pretty much only exist to be the butt of jokes or to be killed off without any thought. Jamie and Cersie even kill a Lannister cousin each but like no problem mon, There's no word for cousin killing so apparently it's not a crime.

 

( I am assuming that Cersie killed Lancel by stabbing him in the arrow wound, though it wasn't very clear. But we never saw Lancel again, and it's not like Cersie to leave a loose end like that )

 

So we have the retard lannister, the sleepy lannister, two lannister kids ( who only existed to die off , its not like any other lannister cares about them ), Alton and Lancel from season 2, an 'uncle Kevan' from season 1, and did I miss anyone? It's a mess. Compared to the Baratheons, Tullys, Arryns, Starks, Tyrells, etc. who pretty much have one core family and that's it.

[abelard]

Great recap of the Punishments of Love this show dishes out, shimpy.  One small note is that Bran and Rickon didn't watch two maesters die, only Maester Luwin was a maester and Ser Rodrik was...something like Captain of the Guard of Winterfell or something like that.  The man who oversaw all the boys' weapons training.  I will never never forget Bran and Rickon crying out to Theon as he hacked away at Ser Rodrik's head.  Bran: "I'll do anything you say, please stop, PLEASE STOP."  My gods.  

 

I also like your question for Dany: Aren't you watching this show?  The one person who's in the show and watching the show is Tyrion: "If you're looking for justice, you've come to the wrong place."  

 

Actually, by your rules, I think it might be good that LF thinks he's in love with Cat/Sansa, b/c such bad things happen to people who love.  Except...bad things happen to the loved ones of people who love, right?  So I think that means it is Sansa who is most likely to suffer.  Oh, great.  There's a happy thought for me this morning.

 

AlphaLine, I don't think Lancel is dead.  Am I wrong about that?  I really need to check Nymeria's character list for that.  Didn't someone just mention Lancel?  And some other random Lannister cousins: the one Jaime killed in the cage, and the two that Oberyn scared half to death in the whorehouse.  (Oberyn! *sob*)

 

ETA: Checked the character guide: Ser Rodrik's title was "Master of Arms" at Winterfell, and Lancel does not have little brackets around his name, so I am assuming he lives or we just don't know what happened to him.

Edited June 3, 2014 by abelard

[arry the orphan]

There are really a lot of Lannisters in the Seven Kingdoms, almost as many as Freys. The sleepy Lannister, was Tywins cousin Reginald. Jaime didn't even know that he had a cousin called Alton, who once squired for him. He asked if his mother was the "fat Lannister", which she wasn't. All in all, having a large family isn't that surprising. Lets assume Tywins grandfather had a few brothers and ten children and Tywin had a few siblings himself, and the gold from Casterly Rock made them all stay there. No wonder that Tywin cares so much about the family legacy when Orson Lannister was probably not the only moron among them.

 

I thought the two guys in the whorehouse were just Lannister guardsmen.

 

I assume that Lannisters and Frey just stay with their family, while in the other families the sons who don't inherit will leave and try to make their own way in the world.

Edited June 3, 2014 by arry the orphan

[90PercentGravity]

Jaime mentioned Lancel as a possibility for carrying on the Lannister name. It's the first time we have heard anything about him since he was writhing on the floor of the Red Keep.

[WhiteStumbler]

Stillshimpy: Thank goodness they keep bringing new, interesting, wonderfully developed characters on board, so we can root for them before they die horribly.

[janjan]

I seem to recall that Lancel testified at Tyrion's trial, saying smarmy false stuff. Did I imagine that?

[stillshimpy]

Thank goodness they keep bringing new, interesting, wonderfully developed characters on board, so we can root for them before they die horribly.

 

Right? We get to experience the initial "Yay!" only to have it swiftly followed by fear, anxiety, near despair.  

 

Sooner or later we're all going to be like Theon being offered a bath by Ramsay,  shaking and terrified of anything we might like.  

 

But I have the solution!  I'm going to stop liking anyone or anything.  Mwahahaha...huh.  That's not really a winning combo for me.  

 

Fine.  I need to get some Dragons, clearly.  Wait, that seems like an unworkable solution.  

 

What we need to do is have a Bill Murray led motivation speech! Because it Just. Doesn't. Matter! 

[90PercentGravity]

I don't remember Lancel being at Tyrion's trial. I do have a bad memory, but I have a hard time imagining Lancel would take the chance. Tyrion and Jaime as still close and Tyrion could still spill the beans about Lancel and Cersei's affair.

[RadiantAerynSun]

Might be thinking of one of the King's Guards I think who testified to hearing Tyrion threaten the king and call him an idiot?

[90PercentGravity]

Now that you mention that, I'm wondering if it was Lancel? I can vaguely recall it, but I'm not sure. If it was and Tyrion didn't sic Jaime on him, then I call foul.

Edited June 3, 2014 by 90PercentGravity

[Llywela]

I'm about 99% sure we did not see Lancel at Tyrion's trial, because so many of us had been commenting on his absence ever since Cersei punched him in his arrow wound. Jaime mentioned him in the trial episode and we fell on it as 'oh wow, evidence that Lancel is still alive after all', and we wouldn't have needed that verbal confirmation if we'd actually seen him, so.

[DirewolfPup]

The people who testified were Varys, Pycelle, Cersei, and Shae.. I think that's it. Definitely no sightings of Lancel since Season 2.

[RadiantAerynSun]

There was definitely a guard or King's Guard too, I remember someone retelling the events of the riot in KL from season 2 when Tyrion smacked Joffrey, cause I remember thinking gee we were cheering Tyrion on in that moment and now it is coming back to haunt him...

[WhiteStumbler]

Meryn Trant? The one who Tyrion said "I'm not threatening the King, Ser, I am educating my nephew. Bronn, the next time Ser Meryn speaks, kill him. That was a threat. See the difference?" (S2E4)

[Pallas]

From earlier in the discussion,

 

Here's what I think, just like with Littlefinger "Don't trust anyone, not even me" , it is best to believe people when they tell you who they are. -- stillshimpy

 

That's not been my experience, shimpy, and speaks to what I meant when I proposed that Tywin (and Cersei) may be full of shit.  By that I don't at all mean harmless, but rather, self-deluded.  Driven by an insatiable and amoral ego to perform or command acts that they cloak in a mantle of some higher purpose or universal fellow-feeling: "family legacy," for Tywin, or "mother-love" for Cersei.  Driven by the infantile compulsion to consume everything in their paths, to put everything they see into their mouths.

 

I say self-deluded rather than deceitful, because I believe that both Tywin and Cersei are convinced by their own rationales. They need them: the same ego that propels them, requires the rationale to prove to itself and to the world that they are not, in fact, infantile; that they are not, in fact, (defenseless, mewling) suckling babes.  Self-protective to the last, they are at pains to declare how their actions derive from something greater or more fearsome.  Combined with their blind will, this is how they get their way. They are competitors; they are predators; they see even their own young as adversaries and will, if feeling pressed, eat those they cannot successfully manipulate or otherwise suborn.  

 

Speaking only of Tywin, and why I think he may be kidding himself: his actions contradict his declarations.  As I noted earlier, both Tyrion and Jaime have called out Tywin about how the many machinations he claims he undertook to advance the family legacy, really profited Tywin, alone.  The brothers may be right or wrong in that, but they have each raised the point, in our hearing. Tywin's seeming lack of interest in who killed the troublesome Joffrey, who was then replaced with the tractable Tommen.  Tywin's refusing to give Tyrion his due, to say the least, when Tyrion clearly stood ready and able to assist the family in its legacy-building. Tywin's enthusiastically assenting to a trial that proves that one Lannister -- his own son -- slew another, the King.  Tywin's telling Jaime that his (Tywin's) own father was weak, and telling Cersei and Tommen that Joffrey was a bad king: versus Tyrion, who would never bet against his brother in a joust. Tywin's accepting what the entire Seven Kingdoms seem to understand are the children of incest, as the foundation of his legacy.  

 

In this he reminds me of dictators drawn from life and fiction.  Men of unvarnished ruthlessness, who nonetheless also waxed their insatiable egos in ideology or sentiment.  Stalin, and Marxism.  Michael Corleone, and "the family."  Stalin, who entered into a pact with Hitler, and etcetera, confounding leftists the world over, who had taken him at his word.  Michael, who alienated his family and offed his feckless brother.  

 

Tywin seems to stand for the feudal principle, but he doesn't: that was Ned. Ned with his personal codes; Ned with his social schema. Tywin stands for Tywin.  So is he something both older and more modern: a warlord of any era, or a jumped-up Russian mobster like Stalin or a fictional mob boss, just with better dialogue, styling and gravitas?  I think he may be.  The Mountain was his Luca Brassi, the feral operative allowed a measure of initiative in getting the job done. The peace Tywin seems to have made with Joffrey's death is his Realpolitik, his non-aggression pact.

 

In the fictional universe, anyway, Michael finally ended broken by reality: broken by the way the life often has finally sucking us down into the pit our actions open up between what we say we are, and what we prove to be.  Sucked down into a pit of our own pigshit. I think GRR Martin may be making this point with Tywin.  That's why I believe Tyrion and his trial will still prove to be Tywin's undoing, that his "golden son" and raspberry-seed-in-his-molar of an Imp will unite to ruin him and his plans.  And they will do it not "for the family," but for or against individual people in their family, and the love or hate they bear them. 

[stillshimpy]

I do see what you're saying, Pallas and in the case of Cersei, I really agree with this: 

 

 

 

I say self-deluded rather than deceitful, because I believe that both Tywin and Cersei are convinced by their own rationales. They need them: the same ego that propels them, requires the rationale to prove to itself and to the world that they are not, in fact, infantile; that they are not, in fact, (defenseless, mewling) suckling babes.

 

To an extent I agree about Tywin too.  Although he clearly does wield a lot of the power he claims to (the Stark Wedding aka The Red Wedding) and really did manage to rise to the top and be the king of shit mountain for a while, there are other, rather telling things that perplex me.  Since the start of the show I've been hearing about "What if Father finds out?"  "Father has said he will hang the next whore he finds in your bed" Father this, Father that.  I kept waiting for Joffrey to catch on (and really thought he would, offing Tommen somehow) that Tywin only had as much power as He, the King would respect.  Joffrey managed to realize that with Cersei, but conveniently for Tywin, died before that thought could take root when it came to Grandpa. 

 

Sure, killing off Tywin would endanger the Throne, but it wasn't as if the King could simply order that on a trumped up charge if he felt like it.  Pretty much the only person who does what Tywin wants is Cersei.  There are great cries of "Oh no, but what if Father finds out?"  Father freaking knows about the Twincest and couldn't figure out a way to make them stop.  Father freaking couldn't find Shae for a year in the city, so how hard was he trying? 

 

Father apparently didn't ever think to order Robert to kick Jaime the hell out of the Kingsguard on the grounds that he'd killed the other King.  Father apparently threatens and scowls and his children primarily do their own damned thing.  

 

There is a bit of the grandiose legend and a lot of blow and bluster for Tywin when it comes to his own children.  The only one he's had any success at controlling was Cersei and that seemed to be because she was DESPERATE for his love and approval.  

 

But he couldn't even get his own heir back from the Crown and apparently it never occurred to him to simply remarry and start making more children to solve the damned problem of his bratty, incestuous heir.  

 

So I do get you when it pertains to "Dad is full of shit" ...except he seems really to only be full of shit when it comes to his children and that's kind of a universal truth for parents though and family.  You get to be an adult and the only real power your parent has over you is the power you give them.  

 

Or in Tyrion's case at present, the power to very poorly frame you for regicide, it would seem.  So at present, it would seem that Tywin is in the winning position.  I just don't expect that to last.  Tyrion is openly engaged in trying to take Tywin's power in his life away from him.  He seems to have lost at this point, but a key point would be so has Tywin.  His Goliath is dead.  Relations with Dorne must be endangered now.  Tommen's one tiny inch and a long night away from being entirely under Margaery's thrall.  Tywin may not realize it (although I think he does), but his game is being slowly lost for good. 

 

But you watched BSG too, didn't you Pallas?  "The parents have to die, for the children to come into their own." is not a universal truth.  I think that Jaime finally started to realize, "Wait...he doesn't have the power here any longer unless I give it to him...because he needs me to do something and can't make me any longer."  So it's not death; it's realization that empowers.  Tyrion realizing "You actually can't make me impregnate Sansa..."  and refusing to do so.  It's part of the reason I think Tywin was in on the plot to kill Joffrey and with framing Tyrion for it.  Tywin knew he'd lost the reins entirely with Tyrion. 

 

Someone need not be full of shit for a person to realize, "You don't own me.  Why did I think you did?"  For a time it appeared to be sort of true because of the Lannister wealth, but again, how true was it all along?  If Cersei had made it her life's mission to become Robert's trusted friend, rather than hating him for not loving her, what kind of power might Cersei have figured out how to exert over Tywin?  If Jaime had proposed leaving the Kingsguard and returned to Casterly Rock, intent upon winning the loyalty of the Lannister men, how might that have gone? 

 

So I agree that there's self-deception going on here, I don't agree that Tywin is full of shit...he was the powerful man he claimed to be, but he couldn't really figure out how to turn that into success. 

Edited June 4, 2014 by stillshimpy

[janjan]

I say self-deluded rather than deceitful, because I believe that both Tywin and Cersei are convinced by their own rationales. They need them: the same ego that propels them, requires the rationale to prove to itself and to the world that they are not, in fact, infantile; that they are not, in fact, (defenseless, mewling) suckling babes.  Self-protective to the last, they are at pains to declare how their actions derive from something greater or more fearsome.  Combined with their blind will, this is how they get their way.

Well said, Pallas. This reminds me of a discussion we all had back in TWOP days about the nature of evil. Lying (including self-delusion) coupled with an unbridled will (that's according to M. Scott Peck, anyway -- theologian + psychiatrist). Your terminology even veers toward the theological : "the way the life often has finally sucking us down into the pit our actions open up between what we say we are, and what we prove to be." Ah, the pit. Where Lucifer resides.

 

So who is truly evil in A Show? You've made a good case for Cersei and Tywin. I would add Littlefinger of course -- he's a textbook case. Not the Mountain and not Ramsay Snow, er, Bolton -- they're dangerous, but, like Cousin Orson, too mindless to qualify. Papa Bolton, OTOH, fits the profile. And Dany is well on the way. Her smug conviction in her own righteousness is a bad sign, and she has banished Jorah, the only brake on her unbridled will.

 

So I withdraw my earlier shipping of Dany and Jon Snow. Boring as Jon has been of late, he's Ned's true heir.

[stillshimpy]

And Dany is well on the way. Her smug conviction in her own righteousness is a bad sign, and she has banished Jorah, the only brake on her unbridled will.

 

This is an unexplored aspect, thus far, of "What now?" because whereas it's sad for Jorah, he can go and make a life for himself elsewhere.  That he's no longer with the person he loves is perhaps for the best for Jorah.  She didn't love him back.  She wasn't going to and she had started to change into a different person than the girl he had fallen for anyway.  The girl who was fighting steep odds with the sheer force of her will and refusal to give up.  

 

Now she is fighting with the Force of devoted armies, Dragons, fear and love.  She's become royal and a monarch. The very fact that she wasn't even shown being torn about what she should do about Jorah's betrayal -- and whereas I can understand why Dany couldn't just trust him, she didn't see the parts of the story we were privy to -- because make no mistake about it, Dany wouldn't have anything if Jorah hadn't stayed by her side.  She'd have been slaughtered in a near coma.  It's always been very significant that when Dany awoke to Jorah, in armor that had blood splashed on it, he'd had to fight for her life when she didn't have a prayer of defending herself.  When he had no idea she was about to hatch dragons, he stayed by her side.  He thought she had thoroughly and completely lost everything and that's who he chose to stay and protect.  

 

That any true acknowledgement of that was entirely missing from the moment when Dany banished Jorah, that she wouldn't even be alone with him, suggested that Dany is becoming, if not Evil, then the most dangerous person there is in the world:  Someone who has absolute conviction in the rightness of their actions.  Throughout history, the biggest monsters have been convinced not just that they were powerful, but that they were right, that they acted in the name of that which was right.  The person with no internal conflict about the rightness of their course, is often the most dangerous person there can be, because they will do anything if they are completely convinced it is right.  Anything.  Burn subjects alive type of Anything.  

 

Dany wouldn't be alone with Jorah.  The man who protected her life when it was at the most fragile.  When Drogo was just a shell who didn't even blink often enough, Jorah stood over her.  That's the man she judged as being unworthy of a private conversation and further consideration. 

 

Dany's fucking scary. 

Edited June 4, 2014 by stillshimpy

[abelard]

Pallas, your beautiful analysis of Tywin's character (I love the comparison to Stalin and Michael Corleone!) gives me hope that the Show will do something dramatic with Tywin's story in the next couple of eps.  Mostly I just foresee boredom (mine) coming on the horizon.  For example, if Tywin has Tyrion beheaded, I will mourn Tyrion (though actually less than I would have before I was rendered completely numb by Oberyn's death), but I will just yawn at the outcome of, Oh, Tywin's won again, and gotten what he wanted, again.  Yes, I'm aware that Tywin in a weird way hardly ever gets what he wants (Jaime to Casterly Rock, Tyrion to stop sleeping with whores, Jaime and Cersei to stop sleeping with each other), but in another, Tywin has gotten what he's always wanted for a long time now: To Rule.

 

Tywin was the Hand of the Mad King, so he was more likely than not ruling the 7K even then.  Or at least making his fair share of the actual decisions that got made on that Small Council.  (From what we've heard of Rhaegar, he doesn't seem like the Small Council type.)  He seems to have had less influence in the Robert-Jon Arryn period, but as soon as Robert died, Tywin knew He Was Back in a big way.  Just one more Stark to put down, and Tywin would be effectively King (by being Hand) once again.  And then, Joffrey the Inconvenient dying just strengthened Tywin's power.  One way you could look at this show is as the story of Tywin's Ascent, and if he just keeps ascending over the next couple of eps, I dunno, it will just feel...stale, drama-wise, at this point.  That's weird to say when one of the most beloved characters has his head on the chopping block, but that's how I feel.

 

So what I want for this Show is for something to happen in the story of Tywin's Ascent.  Something really dramatic, something that would really threaten Tywin's power or his sense of self or his ideology, as you put it.  But it's not clear, short of Tywin being assassinated or something, what that will be.  Frankly, Tywin being killed would be the least interesting way to go, at this point. 

[DemosthenesKey]

Loved your mini-character study of Dany, shimpy! <3

My personal hope for Jorah is that he joins that merc company people were always talking about, which is then hired by Stannis with the money from Bravos, so that we don't see the last of him. My hope for Dany is that she comes over the sea with her dragons to conquer Westeros and save it from the WW, only to find that Bran already did it for her. ;P

[Pallas]

Wonderful posts, shimpy and janjan. To be clear, I fully concur that Tywin holds and wields enormous power, direct and indirect, and through a variety of means -- aggression, suggestion, charisma and sheer charlesdancery.  I only question what he claims is the purpose of this power: to fortify the family legacy, rather than his own free rein and shadow reign.  "A Lannister this, a Lannister that," he drilled his children, as Jaime told us in his first scene, and Tywin reiterated in his own first scene, and Jaime, Cersei and Tyrion have all grudgingly, bitterly or coyly parroted back to him, since then.  And yet.  Where the family legacy may suffer but Tywin prosper, Tywin has shown he is on board, signed up, ship-shape, a-okay.  That is the shit to which I believe he may be heir.  And I don't believe that renders him impotent or evil or unusual.  Just -- in that one regard, anyway -- ordinary.

 

Well, not only in that one regard.  I thrilled to your account, shimpy, of all the ways his children have stumped him.  He, the Captain Von Trapp with his tin god's bosun's whistle; they, the merry larks, sneaking off to rendezvous with Hitlerjugen or cavort from treetops.  ("No whores!"  "Yes, whores!" "No Kingsguard!" "Yes, Kingsguard!"  "No bastards!"  "Yes, bastards!"  "D'oh! -- no -- die, then, you pack of misbegotten miscreants.")  

 

More, I appreciate your point that Tywin need not be full of shit or die for his children to have come into their own. Tywin could truly believe in the virtue of the Lannister legacy -- at his own expense -- and that wouldn't have to mean a thing to his children. They are, and would always have been, free to claim, disavow, or interpret that legacy however they chose.   As you noted, Cersei and Jaime each had decades to make allies of the King or Tywin's own forces, and they preferred to chafe.  Chafe, bitch, drink, fuck and throw money anywhere but at the problem, if we add Tyrion into the mix.  That's their fault and not Tywin's; I fault him only for giving them little but his self-interest for sustenance.  Ned left his children the means to think for themselves, and act for others: and even then, again, it is still up to each of them to do so. 

 

Most of all, shimpy, I love your point that Tywin can feel it slipping away.  I hadn't thought of that but now I feel it too, from him.  He let Tyrion rattle him (again): first, with regard to Sansa, and then at the trial.  It's not only because Tywin now thinks he has the North sown up with Bolton, that he acquiesced to Cersei's scheme to eliminate both Tyrion and Sansa.  He knows he's lost that round, and he's getting rid of the living, mocking evidence. (As he, I think, permitted others, unknown and unsanctioned, to do with Joffrey.)  As for the trial, Tywin had it fully in hand before he put Shae on the stand -- after the recess where Jaime bent the knee.  And even after Tyrion blew up, I'm pretty sure it was still within Tywin's power to ignore the outburst, to summarily halt the proceedings, to invent a pretext for denying Tyrion a trial by combat, to push through the deal he had engineered with Jaime.  He didn't.  The Imp got under his skin.

 

And so, even if Tyrion were now to die and Tywin to live, Tywin will lose.  Maybe he thinks that this time, he'll be able to focus purely on suborning Tommen, as he failed to do with any of his own offspring.  But as you said,  "Tommen's one tiny inch and a long night away from being entirely under Margaery's thrall."  (Hee!)  I think we're not too far from seeing that even by his own lights, Tywin failed in the one job he claimed for himself.  You can't build a legacy with sand, and you can't grind your children into bricks.  Live with them in a way that acknowledges their own souls and honors the world, and see what happens.

 

So who is truly evil in A Show? You've made a good case for Cersei and Tywin. I would add Littlefinger of course -- he's a textbook case. Not the Mountain and not Ramsay Snow, er, Bolton -- they're dangerous, but, like Cousin Orson, too mindless to qualify. Papa Bolton, OTOH, fits the profile. And Dany is well on the way. Her smug conviction in her own righteousness is a bad sign, and she has banished Jorah, the only brake on her unbridled will.   -- janjan

 

I think -- I think -- within A Show, evil is less a who and more a what.  No person and no force -- not ambition, magic, religion, tradition or the law -- is incorruptible or incorrigible.  Redemption is only an edging closer to a disinterested, common good, and choosing to make that your stand.  

[90PercentGravity]

Seeing how easy it was to legitimize a bastard made me kind of hate Ned. Why wouldn't he have legitimized Jon Snow once he left Winterfell, or even when Ned was in prison and had nothing to lose?

[stillshimpy]

Seeing how easy it was to legitimize a bastard made me kind of hate Ned. Why wouldn't he have legitimized Jon Snow once he left Winterfell, or even when Ned was in prison and had nothing to lose?

 

I think because Catelyn wouldn't agree to it, 90Percent.  Catelyn told Talisa that when she was making a freaky-deaky doll wheel, and told the story of Jon's terrible fever.  How she prayed to the gods and promised that if he lived, she'd love him, she'd tell Ned to give him the Stark name.  

 

Loved your whole post, Pallas, but in particular this:

 

 

 

I think -- I think -- within A Show, evil is less a who and more a what.  No person and no force -- not ambition, magic, religion, tradition or the law -- is incorruptible or incorrigible.  Redemption is only an edging closer to a disinterested, common good, and choosing to make that your stand.

 

Because I do agree, no one is wholly defined as either Good or Evil.  I liked Ned in a lot of ways, but as my husband and I were talking about: he was sort of Stannis-Lite, enacting the letter of law, because it was the law and that law constituted right.  He made no room for human failing or compassion.  It was also one of the first things we learned about him.  He could lop the head off of Sole Survivor without hesitation, but later asked Benjen (Timjen!!) about the possibility of having seen a White Walker.  It's always bothered me that a part of Ned believed that kid and he still didn't simply send him back. 

 

Ned Stark couldn't unbend, unbunch or reconsider even for a moment on delivering the (admittedly very swift) execution blow for the crime of desertion to what amounted to a terrified adolescent, who hadn't deserted as much as he'd bolted.  Like one of my dog's did on New Year's Eve, a black dog disappearing into a black night (it occurs to me suddenly, every dog I've ever had has been black...so I a different dog than Pud), not because she was trying to ditch us, she was just terrified.  We tracked her down and brought her home. 

 

Now here's something to consider.  Lord Mormont knew that Jon Snow had been going to desert his post, as did Aemon.  Their response was that of understanding.  Mormont gave Jon his family sword instead of hacking off his head.  The thing that Ned would never have considered to let Mormont keep Jorah.  Just understanding a mistake.  A minor deviation from the path.  

 

I liked Ned.  I do think he was A Good Man within the story, but in this story, Good is very rigid. 

Edited June 4, 2014 by stillshimpy

[RadiantAerynSun]

 

It's always been very significant that when Dany awoke to Jorah, in armor that had blood splashed on it, he'd had to fight for her life when she didn't have a prayer of defending herself.  When he had no idea she was about to hatch dragons, he stayed by her side.  He thought she had thoroughly and completely lost everything and that's who he chose to stay and protect.

 

THIS is why I have always loved Jorah and why I may have to reluctantly bail on Team Targaryen at this point. But what team to latch myself to... OTOH I have always thought it might be part of Dany's arc for her to go completely mad, and if that's to be so (which would be quite interesting imo) then I'm glad Jorah won't be there to see it. Maybe he will have a hand in someday bringing her down... if that is what I am going to root for. Not entirely sure on that, but...

[janjan]

No person and no force -- not ambition, magic, religion, tradition or the law -- is incorruptible or incorrigible.  Redemption is only an edging closer to a disinterested, common good, and choosing to make that your stand.

Good point. That makes Varys a sort of hero, at least if we are to believe the motive he claims (which I do).

 

That adds an extra layer of interest to the exchanges between Varys and Littlefinger -- my favorite recurring scene. In this sense, A show is about the clash of cosmic forces -- good vs. evil, order vs. chaos, Eros vs. Thanatos -- personified in two upstarts, seemingly marginal and barely tolerated by those around them but really the central characters.Those exchanges are a kind of anvil-icious Greek chorus.

 

Varys has been kind of quiet while LF's latest scheme plays out, but he does play the long game. I wonder if the sorcerer is still in the box.

[DirewolfPup]

There has been a disturbing lack of Varys this season. I demand more Varys!

[ChocButterfly]

Guys, any speculation on what will happen on the dreaded Episode 9? Obviously, we have Tyrion's fate to decide. I'm sure he's not going to die, specially for the reasons cited by Shimpy. So how will he escape?? Realistically, the only one who could help him and who actually cares is Jaimie. Probably some convoluted shenanigans for his escape, sort of like Davos getting Gendry out of Dragonstone. I guess, it doesn't matter how, Tyrion will probably end up on a boat to Essos, because, where else? He's far too recognizable in Westeros and Twyin will be looking for him mercilessly. Plus, he doesn't have a Hound to protect him like Arya. I'd say he could go to Dorne, but he's a Lannister, so nope! So East it is, away from the this whole mess and into another. Lets just hope that Jaimie leaves King's Landing as well with him? And while we're there, why not kill Twyin on the way? They'll be both wanted men anyway, so might as well end up doing a great favor to society!

 

Next will be of course the stupid Wilding attack. Honestly, I have NO idea what else could happen here apart from the entire Night's Watch being exterminated, except of course for Jon and his buddies. But where will they go from here? Looking for Stannis to help them? Bolton? I don't know, and I think I don't care about this plot line enough to try to figure it out, either.

 

What else? Dany doing some dany stuff. I don't think we'll have any weddings here, that'll be form next season. We should though, it's been AGES since Cersei said the Royal wedding was going to take place in 2 weeks, but we know time in Westeros has its own dimension. Speaking of impossible slooooow plots, when is Balon going to bite it?? Will Bran ever reach anything? Will Winter ever come?? They've been saying that for years now.... Still waiting...

 

Edited to Add: Oh, almost forgot, the Hound is mostly dead, just like Drogo. Big, tough warriors can only die of ridiculous minor infested injuries. That'll take him of Arya's list, which solves an ethical dilemma I was having in my head to whether she was really capable of killing him after all they've been through together. So, of to Bravo for Assasin Girl, the only place where she could go now that she really doesn't give a fuck about anything else.

Edited June 5, 2014 by ChocButterfly

[WhiteStumbler]

Guys, any speculation on what will happen on the dreaded Episode 9? Obviously, we have Tyrion's fate to decide. I'm sure he's not going to die, specially for the reasons cited by Shimpy. So how will he escape??

I also was sure that Oberyn was going to kill The Mountain...

 

Pardon me, sorry, I got something in my eye... is it dusty in here or what?! HAHAHA Ha Ha ha ha, ha.. ha... huh.

[ChocButterfly]

Damn you Kentucky Fried Hound! Can't you see I'm still on denial about my beloved Inigo? :( 

 

Uff, seriously, why do we keep watching this show and with a shred of hope? It's the very definition of craziness, doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result.

[abelard]

I'm still placing even odds on whether Tyrion will die next ep or not.  If he escapes, IA w/ChocButterfly that it will very likely be Jaime who aids him, b/c "I'm the last friend you've got."  I don't think they'll kill Tywin on their way out, Tywin doesn't spend much time anywhere near the dungeons, me thinks.  And I would really love it if both Jaime and Tyrion headed to Easteros b/c frankly more characters would only help Dany's story at this point.  I hope they join her little court and advise her.  They both have a ton of inside knowledge about KL and how ruling the 7K works, they could be useful to her.  Tyrion would make a great Hand to Dany (replacement for Jorah, who was basically her Hand before).  

 

I do think the Wildling attack will probably demolish what's left of the Night's Watch but where will Jon & Co. go?  Maybe it will be just Jon and Sam, but I do expect at least those two to survive.  But with Bolton holding the entire North now, it's hard to know where they'd be safe.  Oh maybe the Umbers' keep, where Rickon is hiding out.  On the other hand, I would love for Jon to somehow pull an Aragorn and rally the troops to defend Castle Black successfully.  I would love to have a big win for the good guys on this show.  (Clearly "I've not been paying attention.")

[AlphaLine]

Yeah, the episode 9 moment is almost upon us. I can see two options

 

1. Wildlings attack the Night's watch

2. Stannis attacks King's Landing, which allows Tyrion to escape.

Or a bit of both.

 

I hope they don't over do the wall stuff. It's the most boring part of the show and really not episode 9 material.

Also maybe Jon Snow dies off finally. Or even better Stannis dies. One can only hope..

 

I just can't see them skipping or delaying the King's Landing/Tyrion stuff for a pointless battle at the wall that no one cares about.

[90PercentGravity]

Maybe Jon Snow and Stannis converge on the same spot and have an epic bland-off that puts the wildlings and the white walkers into a 1000-year sleep.

[abelard]

2. Stannis attacks King's Landing, which allows Tyrion to escape.

 

Oh!  This is interesting.  I hadn't considered this possibility but I like it very much.  It would sort of put Tyrion in Stannis's debt for attacking KL, when Tyrion led the defense of KL against a Stannis invasion before.  That would be poetic.  PLUS we know that Tyrion knows all about the tunnels underground KL (Varys made sure he knew about those, right?). 

[gingerella]

ChocoButt (hee!), I was thinking about the issue of The Hound's festering wound, and I envision a scene where he is obviously dying, and Arya has to put him out of his misery like the Hound taught her to do to that farmer earlier this season. That would be quite poetic...I could even see him begging Arya to kill him and she not wanting to because she cares about him, she really has nobody else at this point, but in the end she has to kill him to help him die with a titch more dignity.

As for Tyrion escaping, YES! What a great scenario, Tyrion saves KL from The Assault of the Lobster: Part Une, only to be able to use the same labyrinth of tunnels to hatch his escape when The Assault of the Lobster: Part Duex occurs...this is sheer genius and indeed poetic justice. In this scenario, if Tyrion had not saved KL initially, a second assault would never have happened, hence his escape would be impossible...Tough if Stannis has won initially, I doubt any Lannisters would still be living so in a sense its all moot, but what a great escape this would be! Great thought!

I am still distraught over the demise of my beloved, bisexual beast, Oberyn...sniff...dabs eyes with hankerchief...

Edited June 6, 2014 by gingerella

[janjan]

Abelard: I do think the Wildling attack will probably demolish what's left of the Night's Watch

Finally! A way to get Jon out of that pesky vow, with honor intact of course, so maybe he can do something interesting.

 

If he has an epic bland-off (TM 90%) with Stannis, I vow to fast-forward over all future scenes with either of them. Gotta stay awake to see what happens with Arya, and to watch Cersei wriggle out of her betrothal, and to keep up my lonely vigil for Benjen. C'mon Benjie, we know you're out there.

[janjan]

Gingerella: ... the Hound's festering wound, and I envision a scene where he is obviously dying,

I didn't think I had any sniffles left after A Show killed off the noble Oberyn, but here comes some more for the Hound: <sniffle>. I already miss the old dawg. I'm glad Arya finally realized he wasn't such a bad guy.

 

But how come Drogo and Hound die of little flea bites, while Jaime and Theon survive massive blood loss and sepsis? Yeah, Jaime got cauterized, but only days later.

[arry the orphan]

 

But how come Drogo and Hound die of little flea bites, while Jaime and Theon survive massive blood loss and sepsis? Yeah, Jaime got cauterized, but only days later.

 

I assume the Flayers of the Dreadfort have a really talented maester working for them. Qyburn also worked for Bolton in Harrenhal, before he went with Jaime!

Mmm, I am still waiting for a maester duell (maester-off??) between Pycelle and Qyburn.........................

The Hound isn't dead yet, and might still be saved if he gets to a maester in time and Drogo, well, his wound was treated by the evil witch, before it festered, so I think she might have poisoned him for raping her village.

Edited June 6, 2014 by arry the orphan

[RadiantAerynSun]

Stannis is going to make an appearance somewhere, bc it's been awhile since we saw them, and Melisandre seemed to be getting ready to go somewhere. I just don't know where, north or south? They could pull a surprise and have them turn up at the wall, but that'd be entirely too convenient. I kinda think the Night's Watch is gonna get their ass handed to them. But I do think Jon and probably Sam will get away. I like the spec that Jon winds up with the Umbers and maybe finds Rickon (prob not this season tho)

 

Jaime definitely has to play some pivotal role in Tyrion escaping, if he does indeed escape. If he doesn't, then it will be played up that our expectation is that he will help only for himt o refuse/fail/be unable/etc. Kinda like how half of us thought Jaime would be his champion...

 

I kinda think the Hound will live just bc I think the show would not go the route of killing two powerful guys with "just a flesh wound" but they probably want you to expect that!! Unless, they EXPECT me to expect that in which case... *shakes head*

[gingerella]

I'm not really sure what all this kerfluffle is about The Wall & The Night's Watch VS. The Wildings. I mean, aren't they ALL going to be toast if Winter actually, yanno, comes, and brings WWs with it?  Why wouldn't the Wildings be talking to the Night's Watch and sending an envoy to explain what's coming to a Wall near you soon?  I just don't get this animosity between two factions that need to band together to survive the WW invasion that is allegedly coming South any season now...

 

Also, we know there are humans or whatever people South of Wall are considered. And there are Wildings living just North of the Wall as well. And there are White Walkers. And apparently giants too. But what is the difference between a White Walker and a wight? I occasionally hear you guys talking about wights and I don't know if they are WWs or something entirely different. And is there another type of being in between a Wilding and a WW? Someone help A Viewer out please, I am confuddled as hell!

 

Lastly, who the fuck IS Mance Raydar? I am totally confused on that one. We see this dude with a big red beard and long wavy hair, is that Mance? I thought that was one of his underlings. Have we actually seen Mance yet and can someone describe him to me? And who the hell is the really fugly dude who enjoys killing and eating people, the guy with the weird scars on his bald head?  And how does he keep his head shaved so close when they're always on the move? That bunch must stink to seven hells!

[stillshimpy]

Mance Raydar was/is played by Cirian Hinds*, gingerella.  Kind of a famous dude, best known from a bunch of BBC productions, and he played Julius Caesar in Rome (a few pounds ago...Emdure Tully is played by the actor that was Brutus and Elaria Sand was also Naobi in Rome...Rome actors represent).  

 

More to follow here in a second: 

 

He's dark-haired, a little past middle-age and we haven't seen him since he told Jon Snow that the way he united the tribes (hornfoots, cave dwellers, apparently Thenns) who all hate living shit out of each other, is that they all had to go South or "They would all die". 

 

 

 

I'm not really sure what all this kerfluffle is about The Wall & The Night's Watch VS. The Wildings. I mean, aren't they ALL going to be toast if Winter actually, yanno, comes, and brings WWs with it?  Why wouldn't the Wildings be talking to the Night's Watch and sending an envoy to explain what's coming to a Wall near you soon?  I just don't get this animosity between two factions that need to band together to survive the WW invasion that is allegedly coming South any season now...

 

So yes, they absolutely know about the White Walkers and the Wights.  The Wights are what we call Zombonis.  They are reanimated dead.  The White Walkers are the shirtless dudes with the frost blue eyes, the kind that Sam stabbed with the Dragon Glass dagger to save Gilly and Baby Sam last season.  Apparently some still unknown fuckers in the North who looked like Buffy Villain escapees turned Craster's babies into White Walkers.  We don't know what the hell they are, but the thing that carried the baby to them, was a White Walker.

 

Yes, there are tons of beings in between White Walkers and Wildings.  Wildings are Ygritte and Tall Redhead Man and friends.  Then there are all the different tribes that Mance Rayder referred to...but I couldn't tell you what a hornfoot looks like (but I think the feet might be...horny) and then Giants....then apparently the tribally scarred Cannibals are Thenns.  

 

*We haven't seen him in ages, in all likelihood because since Sean Bean and Mark Addy (Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon)  Cirian Hinds is just about the biggest, or best known name associated with the show.  IMDb the guy, he's kind of a big deal.  So I'm guessing they only shell out the dough for him when it's really important to the story and the Wildlings are supposed to take Castle Black before he'll show the hell back up.  

Edited June 6, 2014 by stillshimpy

[Snowblack]

gingerella has an great point.  Why does Mance Rayder only see the Night's Watch as an obstacle rather than a potential ally?  He has united a number of tribes that have no doubt fought against one another at various times.  So why isn't the Night's Watch just another tribe that he needs to unite in order for all of them to survive?  I guess he in counting on the unyielding "Starkian" nature of the Night's Watch leadership preventing any sort of truce.  Or maybe there has been enough slaughter over the centuries by the Night's Watch that an alliance is unthinkable.  But it does seem odd, given the sort of threat all the Northerners are facing.  This Winter is the very type of event that unites groups with completely different interests. 

 

Speaking of the White Walker invasion, what exactly is it they mean to do?  Are they just going to kill everyone and turn them into zombies?  Steal every baby in sight and turn it into one of them?  Is there something they can do to turn Westeros into the Land of Always Winter?  I don't have a feel for what their end game is.

[stillshimpy]

If I'm recalling this correctly, Mance Rayder was part of the Night's Watch.  He's a Crow that flew North.  

 

ETA: Checked Nymeria's character guide and yes, Mance Rayder was a member of the Night's Watch, so that's probably why he doesn't view the Night's Watch as potential allies.  I guess he believes he can't trust anyone other than "The Free Folk" .  Copied from the Character Guide: 

 

 

 

The Wildlings or The Free Folk

Mance Rayder. King-beyond-the-Wall. A former brother of the Night's Watch.

Tormund Giantsbane. A wildling chief, loyal and close to Mance Rayder.

The Lord of Bones. A wildling chief who answers to Mance Rayder.

Ygritte. A wildling girl. Loyal to Mance Rayder. Once Jon Snow's lover.

[Orell]. A wildling loyal to Mance Rayder. A warg. Slain by Jon Snow.

[Craster]. A wildling who marries his daughters. Slain by the brothers of the Night's Watch.

     - Gilly. One of Craster's daughter-wives. Residing at a brothel in Mole's Town.

         - Sam. Gilly's son by Craster.

_______. Leader of the Thenns, a cannibalistic wildling clan answering to Mance Rayder.

Tormund is the big redheaded guy and apparently I was wrong, all the clans are called Wildlings as a group?

Edited June 6, 2014 by stillshimpy

[WhiteStumbler]

Speaking of the White Walker invasion, what exactly is it they mean to do? Are they just going to kill everyone and turn them into zombies?

Yup, that seems to be the plan. Old Nan said "In that darkness, the White Walkers came for the first time. They swept through cities and kingdoms, riding their dead horses, hunting with their packs of pale spiders big as hounds."

S1E3 Lord Snow