Completely Unspoiled Speculation Thread

[Pallas]

Ah, sorry, my memory of Littlefinger's so-called allegiances may be messed up.  But I swear it was Renly he begged Ned to support after Robert died: was that not true?  (Of course, had Ned said "Yes" to that, Littlefinger would have used that against him with the Lannisters.)  I thought he had chosen Renly's side, then oiled his way back to the Lannister camp.  Well, if Baelish stayed "true" to the Lannisters throughout, then perhaps he hoped to be named Hand for his efforts?  And instead, saw first Tyrion and then Tywin claim the prize?  I think it takes almost nothing to offend mortally offend Baelish; he just may take his time to follow through on his revenge.  

 

So do we think it was while negotiating the Lannister/Tyrell pact that Littelfinger and Olenna first met and sized each other up?  But still: what in her assessment of Littlefinger would make Olenna muse, "Should I ever find I feel the need to kill the king...there's the man to keep the secret safe."     

[stillshimpy]

Okay, guys *sings* here I come to remember the day! *sings* ...*mumbles* we hope *mumbles*.  

 

Littlefinger did urge Ned to back Renly instead of Stannis, basically citing Stannis being...Stannis, essentially.  That happened in Ned's office, where Littlefinger spun that damned dagger around (Knifey!!) and this was after Ned had encountered Renly outside of Robert's bed chamber.  Renly was the person who said that Stannis was "a lobster" *clack clack*  and now we know what he means, and would never have popular support, so Ned should back him (Renly).  

 

Ned proceeded to be Ned.  Away went Renly.  Then Ned talked to Littlefinger, who also tried to make him see a bloodless coup type of situation with Renly.  Ned Nedded up the joint, sort of silently, and Littlefinger sort of, kind of, appeared to back Ned's plan saying that he would need the city guard.  

 

However, in the throne room, Littlefinger pulled Knifey (or Knifey's cousin) and held it to Ned's throat, saying, "I told you not to trust me" ...and he was actually backing Joffrey with that move.   So who knows if LF ever really had backing Renly in mind or not, since he pulled the knife on Ned, in the Throne Room, to keep Ned from announcing that Joffrey was not the legitimate King.  For all we know, LF was always on the side of the Lannisters and he certainly was the next time we saw him.  

Edited April 29, 2014 by stillshimpy

[Pallas]

Thank you shimpy!

 

I remember Littlefinger's seeming quite earnest and intimate with Ned, arguing the case for Renly over Stannis as you would argue with a friend whose stubborn points you know and even respect.  It was a sublime performance.  Down to his seeming to reluctantly but honorably accede to Ned's right to make the call.  Again, the perfect courtier, giving Ned what he knew Ned wanted in an advisor: direct, honest and uncowed counsel.  Then, at the end, yielding to Ned's authority with what looked like good grace. As you said above, shimpy: 40 times more dangerous than the rabid cub.

[ChocButterfly]

Renly was the person who said that Stannis was "a lobster" *clack clack*

Remember when Stannis was talking to Renly and I think it was Melissandre who mentioned Stannis being born from "smoke and salt" or something? Well, I didn't understand the smoke and salt reference, but I do remember Renly hilariously asking Stannis if he was a ham, hahaha! Oh, how I miss Renly. He had the best lines, he was reasonable and I think he would have made a great king.

 

By the way, looking back we can see this all NED'S fault!

Edited April 29, 2014 by ChocButterfly

[arry the orphan]

I just rewatched the scene: LF suggested that Ned supports JOFFREY and goes ahead with the Joff/Sansa marriage. Ned could have ruled as Hand of the King and Protector of the Realm until Joffrey comes of age. Make peace with the Lannisters! He also suggested that they can reveal Joffreys secret later (after dealing with Stannis) and install Renly!

 

Worst advice ever! Revealing Joffreys heritage after he weds Sansa? LF must have known that Cersei and Joffrey (and Tywin) would never have allowed Ned to continue ruling the Seven Kingdoms. Neds entire influence in KL died with Robert!

Edited April 29, 2014 by arry the orphan

[stillshimpy]

Thank you, 'arry.  It is difficult to remember who specifically Littlefinger has double-crossed and on whose (alleged) behalf.  

[WhiteStumbler]

Ned looks less and less wonderful as we see the price his family and the 7K have paid for his "nobleness".

 

Hindsight and all, of course, but...wow. Even the poor Nights Watch deserter in S1 E1 gets his head lopped off for "deserting", but Maester Aemon says that if they beheaded all the deserters from the Nights Watch, then the Wall would be manned by headless corpses.

 

Noble Ned might be OK with that.

[stillshimpy]

Ned looks less and less wonderful as we see the price his family and the 7K have paid for his "nobleness".

 

I think there's kind of a long argument to be made about what defines honor here.  Ned and Catelyn both adhered to the strictest definitions of a particular code, in an unvarying, completely lacking in shading, black and white manner.  Their last name was really fitting.  Stark indeed, right and wrong existed in sharp contrast.  That's all well and good, but it had a child's level of sophistication and subtlety.  There was only one answer to things, and they both suffered from a lot of tunnel vision.  

 

Now, weirdly the Lannisters are their mirrior images in that they are the actual opposites in interpretation of right, wrong; honor and nobility.  No rule is so sacrosanct that breaking it in the name of personal and family gain is called for in action.  They want all appearances of what is right and honorable, so that they can be admirable and feared within that world.  It's all about a power structure.  

 

Like going to war over the kidnapping of Tyrion Lannister.  They slaughtered countless people, children, freaking pets and farm animals, while laying claim to the rules of honor as their reasoning.  Yet most of the Lannisters couldn't be assed to be put Tyrion out if he was afire in front of them, unless someone else might be watching.  Maybe Jaime, but when Jaime Lannister is the family idea of a moral compass, then I think it's safe to say that morality, nobility, and rules of any other kind than what they make, are nonexistent.  

 

Although, it does seem harsh to condemn Ned for actually playing by the rules they were all taught and that everyone else pretends to.  

 

His biggest sin, biggest fault was in being far too unsophisticated to navigate those seas.  Ned's biggest fault did not lie in his honor or nobility; it was in his inability to see that everyone else thought they were in a particularly deceptive stage play when talking about honor.  Everyone else recited their lines well enough, but Ned followed it through by hitting his mark and living the lines. 

Edited April 29, 2014 by stillshimpy

[WhiteStumbler]

I just tumbled to this while looking for another quote. Robert and Barristan are talking about their first kill in battle...

 

Robert Baratheon: Hmm. How did you do it?

Barristan Selmy: Lance through the heart.

RB: Quick one. Lucky for you. Mine was some Tarly boy at the Battle of Summerhall.

 

A relative of Samwell Tarly. Whoa.

[abelard]

His biggest sin, biggest fault was in being far too unsophisticated to navigate those seas.  Ned's biggest fault did not lie in his honor or nobility; it was in his inability to see that everyone else thought they were in a particularly deceptive stage play when talking about honor.  Everyone else recited their lines well enough, but Ned followed it through by hitting his mark and living the lines.

 

Great post, shimpy.  I know I sound just as naïve as Ned, but I think this means that Ned wasn't at fault: the world that he lived in was at fault.  Ned was true, his world was false.  

 

I thought Cat was the worst strategist ever (I'll never forget her arresting Tyrion on the King's Road, which led to a lot of the subsequent mess happening) but I will give her and Robb this: before Walder Frey set the Red Wedding trap for them, I think no one in the 7K had seen that level of treachery.  They were overly trusting, yes, and idiots possibly for thinking Frey would be the kind of person they could make reparations to, but I bet no one, not even Craster, had abused guest rites to that degree before.  (well except for the Rat Cook that Bran told the story about, but that, I assume, is a scary tall tale that Nan told him)

[North Star]

Hindsight and all, of course, but...wow. Even the poor Nights Watch deserter in S1 E1 gets his head lopped off for "deserting", but Maester Aemon says that if they beheaded all the deserters from the Nights Watch, then the Wall would be manned by headless corpses.

 

Noble Ned might be OK with that.

He referred to having sex while on duty, I believe, not deserting.  The former doesn't meaningfully impact the strength of the Watch, whereas one gets the impression that much of the Watch's membership would pick up and leave if there was no penalty involved.

[MrMicrophone]

Pallas,

Maybe LF figured out that Olenna was going to poison Joff, and offered to "help out"? It's an easy way to buy himself into the "good graces" of a tricksy lady.

[CorgiNarnia]

I don't think Tywin really thinks Tyrion poisoned Joffrey. He is putting Tyrion on trial because he is thought by many, most prominently Cersei, to have done it. If he just said to Cersei, "Let's be real, Tyrion probably didn't do it," and did nothing, she would lose it and probably do something rash (go have Tyrion and Sansa killed). I believe Tywin is setting up his chess pieces for the trial. The other judges are Mace Tyrell and Oberyn Martell. He is going to find a way to manipulate the two of them (blackmail? promise them something?) into an innocent verdict if they aren't already going to vote that way. Or maybe he is going to frame Oberyn for the crime, being the poison expert that he is. How easy would it be to find some "evidence" and dramatically introduce it at the trial? As long as Oberyn is present as a judge, then it is easy to quickly seize him before he has the chance to escape. I feel that Tywin doesn't actually know who killed Joffrey but is coldly continuing to play the game of thrones with this hand he has been dealt.

[Snowblack]

It's interesting that we're 40% through the season, and we haven't seen Yara and her murderers or either of the surviving Tullys yet this season.  Does anyone have thoughts on where they might be and what they might be doing?

 

It occurred to me that since Blackfish is on the run, and he's in the "middle lands," he might meet up with the Brotherhood.  That would lead to a lot of interesting possibilities, since they're in kind of a guerilla war with the remaining forces from the war between the would-be kings.  Maybe they can turn their attentions to the Freys and Boltons.  We know that the Bolton forces are cut off from their lands by the Greyjoys.  What I don't know is whether the Brotherhood (and Blackfish) are north or south of the Greyjoys.  Either way, there are lots of targets for the Brotherhood who aren't going anywhere soon.

 

The other possibility for Blackfish is going to the Aerie.  Lysa Arryn is his niece, since she's Catlyn's sister, so she may give him shelter.  It would be great for him to be at the Aerie when Little Finger (and Sansa?) shows up.  (Yes, I'm assuming he hasn't actually been there yet.)  Blackfish could be a real fly in the ointment for Little Finger if he has any influence over Lysa.

 

As for Yara, I have no idea where she would be at this point.  Somewhere at sea, apparently, but will she put into port somewhere before showing up at Bolton's?  Will she run into Salador the pirate, or some other naval force?  I don't have any feel for where this is going, especially if Theon/Reek is heading south with Ramsay.    

[arry the orphan]

I'm really not missing Yara this season (and neither her father). Anyway, Bolton said that his army is trapped in the south, because the Greyjoys are holding a moat. So is this moat like the Wall in the North? Is it too big for an army to march around it? If thats the case and the moat is more like the Panama canal, then Yaras ships might be sailing the moat and we might see her next episode...

Edited May 1, 2014 by arry the orphan

[ChocButterfly]

I thought Yara could be the one holding the moat. Maybe when the bastard gets to the moat, he'll kill Yara and Theon will finally snap out of it and kill the bastard!

[gingerella]

I thought Yara could be the one holding the moat. Maybe when the bastard gets to the moat, he'll kill Yara and Theon will finally snap out of it and kill the bastard!

If the Bastard meets up with Yara, I seriously shudder to think what he would do to Theon's sister, sheerly out of spite and fun. I think if Yara did not quickly win that battle she would be better off killing herself quickly. I canNOT deal with anymore fucked up shit from that dude. I think I would seriously have to consider bowing out on A Show if that is whats coming.

Edited May 2, 2014 by gingerella

[stillshimpy]

. I canNOT deal with anymore fucked up shit from that dude. I think I would seriously have to consider bowing out on A Show if that is whats coming.

 

Yeah, I'm with you on that, gingerella, I know dark characters are supposed to have more complexity to them than "good white-hat" sort of characters.  But the problem with Ramsay and with Joffrey, when I get right down to it, is that they lack much depth.  I spent half a season fast-forwarding through that crap, because it was just gratuitous violence.  The best things that were revealed about Theon's character might have come from those moments, but Ramsay's character is just giddy-on-agony-and-violence boogeyman from beneath the bed.  Only, because it's HBO, it's graphic and the Foley artist goes insane with squick-inducing sound effects, but that's what he's like to me:  An almost childishly simplistic rendering of a villain.  As was Joffrey and it gets sort of boring on top of flirting with offensive, I think.

 

I actually really hesitate to say this ,because I have a feeling I'll end up looking like I've got my Sansa-colored-glasses on here but maybe, just maybe if Yara catches up with Bolton's Bastard Ramsay the Giddy Torture King....It's Ramsay who might be in trouble.  I know I'm so used to no one other than Dany being allowed to accomplish anything with good intent , but I have some hope that Yara might simply prevail and Yara will make him rue the day.  Maybe.  

 

It's just, Yara (almost literally) told the (nearly literal) Patriarchy to fuck on off, that she was taking charge of the situation and her father could  stick it up his backside, while she went and kicked some ass.  

 

It might be foolish of me -- and I really feel like it is because I have Post Traumatic Show Disorder at this juncture -- but maybe she'll just kick. some. ass.  

Edited May 2, 2014 by stillshimpy

[DirewolfPup]

When the credits are playing, I get excited every time they skip over Pyke. We still get burning Winterfell and the Dreadfort. I guess it's still important to remember that they are there.

 

We haven't seen Arya since episode 1 either.  It's like the King's Landing show up in here!

 

This war (gee thanks ya dumb oaf Ned!), has killed many powerful houses. The important Starks for lineage purposes are dead except for all mighty Rickon. Stannis is the lone Baratheon man left and can't father a living son.  Eh, I just got the image of the liquid cylinders filled with dead babies. ugh. 

 

Is the moat/river that Yara's sailing toward the same river that the Frey's house is on? Please, kill him A Show. Please?!?

[RadiantAerynSun]

 

We haven't seen Arya since episode 1 either.  It's like the King's Landing show up in here!

 

Arya was last seen in episode 3, with the Hound, who robbed a Farmer that took them in.

 

As far as Ramsay, up until this season he did seem rather one dimensional. I think episode 1 however was showing that he probably suffers from Daddy Issues. Namely he seems to want to please his father but seems to be hitting a wall because he's Just A Bastard and evidently screws up by going too over the top. ie he tried to make daddy proud by capturing Theon, but took it a bit too far with his torture. He thinks turning him into Reek was a brilliant way to crush his enemy's spirit and create a "trustworthy" lackey and thought it would impress dear old dad. At first dad was none too impressed, but I think Ramsay won points for the discovery that the Stark boys are still alive. We haven't seen him since then, so not sure how much they'll elaborate on his character yet.

[AlphaLine]

It's interesting that we're 40% through the season, and we haven't seen Yara and her murderers or either of the surviving Tullys yet this season.  Does anyone have thoughts on where they might be and what they might be doing?

 

I know, I made a list of 5 groups of people who had yet to appear in this season and surprisingly none of them appeared in the last epsiode as well. I think it was Gendry, Yara + 50 murderers, Rickon+Osha, the Brotherhood, Tullys+Frey. I now doubt they will appear this season at all. The only one I'm sure that will appear is Yara, and even that is more likely to be a cameo like it was in last season. I doubt that Yara would be at the moat, that doesn't make much sense because she is supposed to be sailing to the Dreadfort.

 

Instead, we'll probably get more Stannis scowling in his castle and assorted Dragonstone craziness ( sigh ), Boltons doing their whatever, Crazy Lysa and the eyrie ( sigh ). But what I'm really looking forward to is the whole north of the wall stuff.

 

If it isn't obvious yet, this season has the character of Jon Snow finally going places. Unlike previously where he just wandered around with his girlfriend and finally ran away. It is clear that the real reason why Jon is going off to Crasters is to rescue Bran , get his direwolf back and kill the bad guys. It's just the 'official' reason they give is plain stupid - a. The wildlings are going to attack no matter whether there are 100 or 1000 troops at castle black. and b. the wildlings should have this info anyway, they even have wargs with eagles. It's like in season 3 where they said that Karstark controls half the northern army, something that is obviously stupid but the plot had to put Robb in a desperate position so that he would go running to Frey. There's a lot of lazy writing in places and I tend to overlook it.

 

But for now it seems like all the plotlines are in collision course for camp craster. Bran, the mutineers, Jon, Ghost, whatever Locke's doing, white walkers.. only Mance Rayder needs to show up and the party will be complete. It's gonna be a clusterfc*k. Well, Jon will live and probably Bran too, but anything else is unpredictable. And of course it'll have to be the next episode, because Jon will need to get back and save Gilly when the Uruk hai attack Mole's town ( Yeahh.. why else do you think she was sent there ), become the next Lord Commander by winning the 'choosing' ( election of sorts? ) , and formulate some sort of strategy for dealing with Mance Rayder's eventual attack. Like I said, Jon is going places.

 

I want to talk a little more about the white walkers and Craster. Is this the only way to create new white walkers? If so, then the notion that white walkers want to destroy humanity makes little sense , as not only do they need them to create their vast armies of undead zombies, but also they need them in order to reproduce. I think the simplest solution would have been, to evacuate all the north of the wall people to the south when the wall was going up. This would have solved the white walker, zombie and wildling menace all at once. Also, Jeor Mormont may have been a fool to let Craster keep doing his thing, but I'm sure he didn't know what was going on. Mance Rayder is a more interesting case. He would be in a much better position to know exactly what was going on ( and Craster can't be the only one ), but he still did nothing. Not much of a King, really.

[DirewolfPup]

Arya was last seen in episode 3, with the Hound, who robbed a Farmer that took them in.

How soon I forget. derp

So this Oberyn guy was a disappointment. He comes in to town all threats and menacingly stabbing random guys in the wrist. That bad ass candle waving. By episode 3, Tywin offers him a job and Obbie tows the line immediately. ugh. I really hope I'm wrong, but he's turned into a Lannister Lacky already.

[justawatcher]

Throwing up a spitball:

Tywin takes the old military tactic of letting the junior officers speak first. Oberyn votes innocent on Tyrion because he gut instinct likes Tyrion and it foils Tywin (double win) Margery's dad does what Olenna tells him to and even she has enough humanity to not let Tyrion take the fall. Then Tywin votes innocent to make it unanimous. I don't think Tywin wants Tyrion convicted. It would reflect badly on the Lannisters and he avoids that at all costs. I think he chose those other two for jurors specifically because they would vote innocent.

[stillshimpy]

Oh, I don't know if he toed-the-line necessarily, DirewolfPup, I'm really hoping that Oberyn is going to use the opportunity to avenge his sister's death in a less "I kill you and stab you, and slash you and break you.  Some more.  Again.  Then I kill you and stab, and slash you, and break you.  Some more.  Once more with feeling!...."  and a level that Tywin Lannister can apparently respect more (and then hopefully feel more damaged by), a plottting,  scheming, tricks and stratagems way.  

 

So I hope he took the job not in any sort of "Yes, of course, and I completely trust you to deliver the Mountain to me, because of course I believe that the Mountain betrayed you at a core level all those years ago, and yet you let him live on and on.  Because you just seem to be that sort of mensch, Twywin Lannister."  but rather, because he very easily spotted the bullshit and has something up his own sleeve.  Or man-dress or whatever the heck it is that he wears.  

[DemosthenesKey]

I got the same vibe off of him, shimpy... To me it looked like he didn't care at all about the position, and only took it because Tywin was offering. If Tywin really thinks that that's going to sway his vote, then - well, I'll live in hope that he has another think coming.

 

While my stomach's made of sturdier stuff in re the Bolton Bastard, and I always enjoy it when a villain is just a complete monster, I watch Game of Thrones for the cleverness. Those scenes like that one way back in Season One where Varys and Littlefinger are having their conversation where they're dancing around each other and teasing each other with how easily one could ruin the other. Heck, the bits in Season Two where Tyrion played the Small Council like a puppetmaster, finding out which one was the mole! It's THOSE things that keep me watching. :)

(I'm kind of embarrassed to admit it, but I actually really liked the most recent Littlefinger scene, if only because it validated my pet theory. Even if it was way too complicated and overblown, it - wait, no, that made me like it even more! Curses.)

[Pallas]

It's funny, shimpy, I had the same hunch about Yara somehow prevailing here and then suppressed it...But what you say here convinces me:

 

It's just, Yara (almost literally) told the (nearly literal) Patriarchy to fuck on off, that she was taking charge of the situation and her father could  stick it up his backside, while she went and kicked some ass.

 

I do think A Show has it in for The Patriarchy: almost to the same degree it has a crush on most Broken Things. That doesn't mean most patriarchies will crumble or all Broken Things survive, but you're right that Yara's staunch declaration to her father -- and the stirring way it was filmed and edited -- created as heroic a moment as A Show has seen fit to provide.  Without any irony. WIthout much inflection.  A lot like Dany and her triumphs, except, this time I was truly stirred.  Because this story has been framed as something that is happening within a family. something that is happening between people -- not something laid down like Thor's mighty hammer on faceless fodder.  

 

So yes, I'm with you that Yara may prevail here.  After an overture like that, her being crushed would bring the saga closer to nihilism than I believe is its intent.  I feel that way about Yara and not Ned or Robb or Cat because I feel their deaths rang true as examples of how people's strongest qualities can often work against them: I feel we were shown that hard truth and shown it well, in each case.  In this mission Yara is doing something other than Ned was in trying to use honor to hack his way with through the brambles of King's Landing, or Robb was in believing that his triumphs and righteous cause alone were enough to hold lesser men's allegiance, or Cat was in trying to match her good instincts with the right action.  Yara was shown to be acting in good faith, to be leading good fighters loyal to her, to possess the judgement to back up her instincts -- to have a plan as firm as her resolve. These are the qualities that can and do change the world for the better. 

[gingerella]

*WARNING: spitball approaching at warp speed.....twaaaaaaack!*

All this talk of A Show having it in for Patriarchies just dislodged a random thought in the old gray matter...what if A Show ends up having ObiePornKenobe:

A. Vote with Mace that Tyrion is not guilty,

And

B. Immediately after the trial, ObiePornKenobe kills Tywin to avenge his dead sis.

That would put Cersei right back on top of the power seat...again (and by 'power seat' I dont mean on Jamie's sword...and by 'sword' I mean, oh nevermind, you all know what I mean). seriously though, just when Cersei seems to be on her way to down n out ville, I could see thks happening, and her perverting the young Tommen away from being a kind, decent King, towards a vindictive, spiteful King, all because the Queen Regent says so. But wait, I am about to blow a hole in my own spitball...If Tommen and Margaery marr before Tywin got offed, then would Cersei still be Queen Regent, or is that title only reserved for her IF the King is unmarried?

If Tywin were to bite it before Tomm & Marg were married, I could the definitely see Cersei canceling that marriage ASAP and sending the Tyrell's packing back to High Garden, where, if. was a Tyrell, I would have booked back to weeks ago....fuck Kings Landing, nothing good happens there. It's like the Detroit of the 7K (no disrespect to Detroiters here)...

[Ariadne]

I think Tywin believes Tyrion poisoned Joffrey and wants him found guilty and executed for it. This is the perfect opportunity to get rid of Tyrion once and for all and when Tyrion's dead he can force Jamie out of the Kingsguard, he'll have Tommen doing whatever he says - you don't need a Kingsguard's consent to forced retirement. This way he finally gets the heir to Casterly Rock he wanted all along.

 

And when a King is murdered, someone has to be found guilty, whether they actually did it or not.

[Snowblack]

Gingerella, I love the spitball!  Before the season, I predicted that Tywin was a dead man, but when Joffrey died I thought maybe I was mistaken.  But that man needs to die.  And nothing would make me happier than Oberyn splitting him in two after thwarting his plans.  The other possibility is that Oberyn takes the less aggressive route and finds way to be a thorn in Tywin's side in every possible way.  But I don't think that's the route he will take.  Oberyn strikes me as a man of action, not a man for subterfuge and vindictive plots.  He's not Cersei or Little Finger. 

 

I'm loving the element of uncertainty that he has added to this season.  Because you know he's a cobra, all coiled up and ready to strike once the right opportunity presents itself.  More importantly, he's principled.  He wants revenge on the individuals who are directly responsible for his sister's death.  Unlike so many others, he doesn't believe in collective guilt.  He may use Tyrion to his own ends, but he won't vote to kill him just because he's a Lannister. 

Edited May 3, 2014 by Snowblack

[ChocButterfly]

Hey , Gingerella, i love that spitball! I'd definitely love to see Oberyn kill Twyin and revenge his sister. And yeah, that'd put Cersei back in power, completely free. I don't think Margeary and Tommen could get married so soon, Tommen is a kid. Even Joffrey had to wait for his wedding and he was older. So it's for sure he'll have to wait longer and Cersei will cancel the wedding. I also don't think Cersei could turn him evil, but I definitely see her manipulating him like a puppet, since he already knows he has to "trust" his advisers, like grandpa told him and who better to trust than his mom? So he'll likely won't know anything that's happening around him and Cersei will be the one in power. Which can only turn out horribly, since Cersei is an incompetent.

 

Then without the Tyrells and with Cersei' s incompetence to rule, there will be no food (cuz, in case you didn't know, Winter is Coming and all). So maybe know we will have a real riot in the capital, something massive like the French Revolution asking for the Lannisters heads!

Edited May 3, 2014 by ChocButterfly

[stillshimpy]

That is a good spitball, gingerella and it makes more sense than Oberyn rolling into town, practically spitting into Tyrion's eye about his murdered sister, getting all "I impale your hand!" with someone else and then...being kind of unruffled and smooth with Tywin, so I'll bet you're right, I bet he has a plan of some sort.  

 

I personally wonder if Cersei is going to live through the season, not Tywin.  

 

Here's what I think happens:  Tyrion is acquitted if he goes to trial at all.  It really is sort of ludicrous that Tywin would believe that Tyrion chose to murder the King...with poisoned wine and then stood there holding the cup.  Tyrion is smarter than that and whereas Twyin really hates Tyrion, I think he holds his intelligence in slightly higher esteem than that.  Unless this was all Tywin's plan all along, because freaking Olenna seemed awfully sure that Margaery would be queued up to marry Tommen instead. 

 

Admittedly, that does seem to indicate that Tywin would be okay with a Lannister accused of killing the King, but then again, Tywin has said that if he didn't have to claim Tyrion as his son, he simply would not have.  Tyrion being found guilty in a Kangaroo Court setting would allow Tywin to disown him, finally be rid of that bur under his saddle and move on.  He could have Tommen kick Jaime out of the Kingsguard on "sole surviving son...and a maimed one at that...." grounds. 

 

Oh wow, okay, so what if it all plays out like gingerella speculated, Tyrion is set free and what the hell is Cersei going to do?  Might that be how Cersei meets her end?  Tommen is married off to Margaery, swiftly enough because Margaery is exerting influence (the kind Mommy can't break) over Tommen as it is.  So Cersei is literally left with none of her children and she once said they were the only things that kept her from throwing herself off the red keep.  

 

Does Cersei end the season by taking a swan dive off the Red Keep, having lost everyone?  

 

It just seems like there is hardly anything left in her story anyway.  She was seeing the doctor (maester, whatever) , so she may be ill as it is.  

 

So let's see how that would work out...Tyrion is acquitted and set free, because Oberyn is not a chump.   Oberyn kills Tywin.  Cersei flips the fuck out, because she has convinced herself Tyrion really did it, but Jaime won't have him killed.  Tommen is under Margaery's pretty influence and just tells her "No, I won't do what you want."  Cersei couldn't control Joffrey either and Tommen would pretty swiftly be king anyway...who would he name as Hand of the King if Tywin is dead?  Jaime maybe? OH! That could work.   So if Tywin is dead by Oberyn's hand, Tommen is engaged to Margaery and won't quit her, because she's Margaery and he's likely besotted.  Jaime is out of the King's Guard because Tommen has named him hand to the King (with that golden paw of his, it seems like maybe that's foreshadowing, the bloody things looks like the Hand pin as it is).  

 

Jaime won't advise Tommen to call off the engagement, and advises not chasing after Oberyn because they've got Myrcella in Dorne and even the Dornish have their limits of tolerance for murder of their relatives, so he gets away.  

 

Cersei has officially lost every damned thing and off the Red Keep she goes?  

 

Tyrion and Jaime are the only Lannisters left standing? 

[Pallas]

Sounds sweet to me.  We were speculating last season that Tywin has to be removed from power because as it is, he is blocking every other story from advancing...and this is not his generation's story, anyway.  Tywin removed from power = Tywin dead, since Tywin doesn't know how to draw breath without exercising power.  Tywin farts masterfully.  Tywin flosses masterfully.  And with Tywin gone, Cersei finds she has lost her other reason for living: opposing the powerful man she depends on.  She continues to devolve.  Especially if it turns out that Tywin, always thinking ahead, set it up that in the event of his death, Jaime and not Cersei would be named Regent.  

 

Here's a spitball of my own: what if the verdict on Tyrion has to be unanimous?  And, what if Oberyn takes out Tywin before the verdict is read -- making Tywin's death the act that frees Tyrion?  Too bad the irony would be lost on Tywin, but hey: we'd be alive to see it!

[gingerella]

The only thing I want to add to shimp and Pallas' additional spitballs is this...is it possible in any scenario that Tommen would name Uncle Tyrion to be Hand? And is there a roll for Uncle Daddy as Regent? Because that? Would certainly push Cersei over the edge and I believe she is capable of taking her own life when push comes to shove...hehe, pun intended, get it? Push comes to shove? Oh nevermind...

ETA: One more thought, if Tommen was under Marg's spell, could he appoint Olenna as Queen Regent? That would be wicked decent!

Edited May 3, 2014 by gingerella

[abelard]

I love shimpy's spec that Tyrion will be cleared of the murder charge and Cersei will throw herself off the highest parapet of the Red Keep.  But I love it b/c now I think almost the exact opposite will happen.  That is, I do think Tyrion will probably be cleared of the murder charge, and then I think Cersei will either kill him or have him killed.  Because: a) that would be the worst thing the Show could do to the viewers (i.e., get our hopes up by showing Tyrion surviving the trial and THEN getting offed), and we all know the Show loves to give us the worst, and b) that would make all of Cersei's whining (wining) and crying and bitterness actually lead to a point.  Gah.  I really really hope my spec doesn't happen, but I could see it going just this way.  A nail-biter of a trial, Tywin votes against his own son, luckily the other two vote for Tyrion, and we see Tyrion happy, free, relieved, ready to take a sip of his beloved wine, and...BAM.  Out comes Cersei from behind the curtain with a knife.  Or something.  

 

Incidentally, I also think Oberyn will kill Tywin, perhaps after the trial.  No way does that guy look all Mr. Ready to Forgive for a Seat on the Small Council.  You couldn't give that guy three dragons to forget about avenging his sister.  No way.

 

So I think that will leave Jaime, and perhaps Tommen (and the missing Myrcella) the only Lannisters standing.  Oh and Cersei will still be around but maybe will have to hoof it out of KL to avoid standing trial for Tyrion's murder.  Jaime clearly needs to stick around to be Kingsguard to Tommen and to keep playing his part in Brienne's story whatever that may be.  Maybe to ride the Redemption Train all the way home, I guess.  Tommen can be Margery's puppet (Margery being Olenna Tyrell's puppet).  Myrcella is Oberyn's guarantee that no living Lannisters will come after him for Tywin's death.

 

That's how I see it playing out, even though it will gut me to lose Tyrion.  And believe, I hope hope hope I am wrong. 

[ChocButterfly]

You guys really think Twyin will find Tyrion not guilty?? Or that Mace would vote against Twyin? No way! the only one who could give an innocent verdict is Oberyn, but it'll be 2 against one. Luckily, I do have faith that Oberyn will kill Twyin after the trial and there will be enough confussion for Tyrion to get away before he's executed. I mean, Tyrion is too popular to die. Though, so was Ned ... Hmmm. I don't think Cersei will die, either. Jaimie, however, could die any moment and it wouldn't matter a bit to the story. Frankly, I'm surprised he has lasted so long. So maybe it's him who dies this season. There is my Spitball! Die, Jaimie, die, and take Stannis with you! Heh. 

[Pallas]

I think Mace would vote against Tywin if Olenna told him to.  It would change nothing in the Tyrell family fortunes; Tywin still needs the alliance: the money, the food, the marriage.  

 

On the other hand, Olenna could be willing to live with someone else's being convicted of her crime, which would then -- along with the brief unhappy reign of King Joffrey -- be swiftly swept into the dustbin of history.  But then again, defying Tywin might be too delicious a prospect for her pass up.  And finally, I do think there's a minority chance that Tywin does not want to see even this Lannister take the rap.  He may -- may --  be doing this to...

 

Nah.  He doesn't give a shit about what Cersei believes, and he doesn't give a shit about an appearance of judicial propriety.  He thinks he doesn't need to.  I don't see why he'd trouble himself to arrange a trial if he had any other verdict in mind. 

[DemosthenesKey]

I can see bits and pieces of all these other specs happening, so here's my personal spitball (with credit to all those who have ideas in it. Like a mosaic. A bit, spitball-y mosaic):

 

Tyrion is going to die. As someone said, that's the worst thing a Show could do to us, but even if it does I won't mind because we'll still have a view in the King's Landing story via Margaery, Jaime, etc. Tyrion serves no more purpose in the story, and his exit from it seems assured due to how Mace is definitely going to vote whatever Tywin does, and Tywin I think won't give a damn about whether or not he's guilty. He just wants the whole thing to be done with and Tyrion to be GONE.

 

HOWEVER, I also think that Oberyn will vote not guilty, and will kill Tywin - an ironic way would be to poison him at Tyrion's execution. The father dying as the son he killed dies... Oberyn and his paramour will skip town, Cersei will go bats**t crazy (er.... more so, anyway...) and Tommen will name Jaime to be his Hand. How this fits into the larger political picture of the realm I haven't decided yet, but I DO think that the whole "Lannisters are winning, bad guys win everything" attitude that I kind of got from the Season Three finale will start lessening. Heck, I think it already has, but I think that Tyrion dying will be the point where it all goes south for these "bad guys".

 

Hmmm... To fit into that narrative structure, that means that something terrible has to happen to the Freys and Boltons as well. For that spitball, I proclaim that Stannis (much like Dany on her questeros for Westeros) will never get to his destination, but will instead engage in an epic battle to fight his way through the North against the Boltons. Theon will probably do something stupid and get some people killed, and (just to subvert expectations) will NOT suddenly betray the Bolton Bastard at the last minute. Stannis will probably kill him, actually, along with the rest of the Boltons, but his army will be weakened enough so that a sudden attack from the rear by Yara will end up with her putting a sword through him.

 

And with that I'm all out of juice, spec-wise. I've got some ideas floating around about the Freys betraying the Lannisters and Jaime as Hand having to help out the Riverlands to fight them, but those can wait.

[justawatcher]

Still don't see Tywin letting yet another Lannister be known as a Kingslayer. I think Tyrion is going to get out of this.

[90PercentGravity]

I'm sticking with my belief that Tyrion is the author's avatar and that will keep him safe at least until it is almost over and then he will go out heroically.

[Snowblack]

I don't have a good feel for how things will go down with the trial, but I feel that Tyrion is safe, regardless of what happens.  And I think Cersei is safe for now, even though she's unstable.  I think she's confused and depressed, but she won't kill herself.  Unfortunately, Jaime isn't safe.  I think he may well die, which would break my heart.  I want to see him continue to evolve.  Tywin can go ahead and die any time though.  I enjoy his character and will miss him, but he's the only one holding chaos at bay.  And there's only so long we can tolerate that!  

[CorgiNarnia]

And nothing would make me happier than Oberyn splitting [Tywin] in two after thwarting his plans.

Shouldn't Oberyn brutally rape Tywin first, you know, for symmetry?

 

I have a feeling both Oberyn and Tywin have plans to murder each other. It's just a matter of who can execute their plan. I would think Tywin has an advantage, being on his home turf and underlings at his disposal. But Oberyn and his supposed poison skills... I mean, how can Tywin ever be sure that whatever he's eating or drinking hasn't been poisoned?

[Snowblack]

The Lannisters are broke!!  I love it! And Tyrion looked like a browbeaten accountant without that knowledge.  Imagine if he knew. :)  So this is going to be interesting, considering what we know about the Bank of Bravos and Davos contacting them on Stannis' behalf.  I think Stannis' fortunes are about to change.  I guess he won't be heading north just yet after all.  I wish they hadn't gone with the head fake on that at the end of last season.

[DemosthenesKey]

Those scenes with Lysa creeped me RIGHT out!

 

My spec is that Sansa's first "kill" is going to be either her or Robin, because that mood shift from Lysa suspecting Littlefinger of being creepy was just... ugh. Those guys need to go. I'm actually rooting for Littlefinger right now, because I laughed right out loud when I saw his eye roll at her being so clingy.

[arry the orphan]

 

The Lannisters are broke!!  I love it!

 

It really comes all back to the money! Littlefinger started the war by telling Lysa to poison Jon Arryn and send the letter to blame the Lannisters! LF was Master of Coin! Did he realize that he won't be able to borrow from the Lannisters any longer? That he won't be able to pay back the Iron Bank? Did LF all this to cover his ass?

Edited May 5, 2014 by arry the orphan

[MrMicrophone]

Pallas,

My spec on Yara is that the little Viking caricature may go down fighting, nobly and with pride.

After all, that's how all Viking tales end -- the hero goes down fighting.

It's how she'd want to go.

(Note: might manage to rescue/free Theon while she's at it, though).

[DirewolfPup]

I do think A Show has it in for The Patriarchy: almost to the same degree it has a crush on most Broken Things. That doesn't mean most patriarchies will crumble or all Broken Things survive, but you're right that Yara's staunch declaration to her father -- and the stirring way it was filmed and edited -- created as heroic a moment as A Show has seen fit to provide.  Without any irony. WIthout much inflection.  A lot like Dany and her triumphs, except, this time I was truly stirred.  Because this story has been framed as something that is happening within a family. something that is happening between people -- not something laid down like Thor's mighty hammer on faceless fodder.  

 

I got the same hero, good-guys-fighting-back vibe during Season 3 when Robb and Cat were talking about taking Casterly Rock. "Show them what it feels like to lose something they love." ugh. still hurts. I try not to hope too much. Hope leads to pain and anger when they inevitably fail. A Show is a cruel mistress.

 

Lannisters are broke. We've been getting hints for multiple episodes that paying for the war was expensive. Also, the throne owes the Lannisters quite a bit of money. Money and power from money is all Tywin really loves or cares about. I think money/power is what he really means when he says legacy. Not his children.

 

Tywin gave me the strong sense that he didn't think Tyrion killed Joffrey. It almost seemed like he was trying to dissuade Cersei from continuing with the trial. Perhaps I read that wrong.

[Snowblack]

I can't help but wonder about the "last good king" Cersei referenced.  She said it had been 50 years, so I guess there was a good Targaryan king in power before the mad king.  And here Joffrey and the various other characters had me thinking the Targaryans were all pretty crazy.  Then again, I think Maester Aemon would have made a pretty good king.  He's got a good head on his shoulders.  So was the last good king Aemon's brother?  He seems so old that it's unlikely to have been his father.  I know it's not important, but my curiosity is piqued.

[Pallas]

I can't help but wonder about the "last good king" Cersei referenced.  She said it had been 50 years, so I guess there was a good Targaryan king in power before the mad king.

 

There were at least the Holy King and the Just King that Tywin referenced in his learning-moment with Tommen over Joffrey's dead body.  

[ChocButterfly]

I thought the Mad King was Master Aemon's brother, fits the age, I think. So I suppose the last good king was the Mad King's and Aemon's father, if it was 50 years ago.

[abelard]

Regarding Targeryen insanity: Cersei told Tyrion that there used to be a saying that when a new Targeryen was born (or conceived?), a coin was flipped, meaning there was a 50/50 chance the new Targ would be pigs**t crazy, or would be totally fine, sanity-wise.  It appears that Maester Aemon and the brother who inherited after Aemon left for the Wall were both fine.  Then, Aemon's nephew Aerys was clearly nutballs.  But I bet Rhaegar was sane (if not a great dude -- well, he was the greatest man by Ser Barristan's standards, probably b/c he was a great soldier and leader of men in battle, but obvs the Martells would say he was a terrible, no-good husband).  Then, Varys = looneyballs, Dany = pretty sane if prone to massively righteous anger fits.  That's pretty close to 50/50.  

 

Oh and yeah, looks like the last sane king was Aemon's brother, then.  (So that means Aemon's father was probably a nutjob, too, just going by the 50/50 rule.)