Way Wes Jr

Show starts in an hour and a half. (Vacation + ultimately disappointing episode = late rankings.) 1. Tony (8) Yeah. You found the Yul/Terry idol. (And you can’t give it away) Welcome to (at worst,) the final five. 2. Trish (6) You’re playing the best game out there, (arguments for Tasha accepted,) but since you’re an “older” female production/editing will never give you the proper credit. (Hell, we can tell you’re playing the best game DESPITE god-awful editing.) 3. Kass (3) Naa-ah. </goat sound effects> 4. Jefra (4) Same reasoning as last week. 5. Woo (7) Tony will cut you loose before you can II run your way to the final. 6. Tasha (2) Did you (and Spencer, and Jeremiah,) even try to swing Kass to switch? You could have tried the estrogen alliance pitch while you had Jeremiah around to balance out Tony and Woo. But, even though you’ve won two II’s in a row, sexism means that 7. Spencer (1) ...will be the primary target. That, and he has been playing an active game as well. GONE Jeremiah (5) Tony and company decided that, if Spencer had an HII, he wouldn’t use it on you. They were right.

Wow. This could go so many ways. Tony (the true agent of Kaos,) is going to have hard work ahead trying to reel Jefra and Kass back to trusting him, and Trish will be reevaluating her alliance. Spencer, Tasha, (and Jeremiah,) can use this opportunity to forge a new majority alliance. Tony can be shown to have Kim S.-like powers and bring his majority back into the fold,(until it is time to cut Woo loose.) And the “next-time on Survivor,” seemed deliberately vague as far as the political situation on the island is concerned. 1. Spenser (7) You have the (regular) HII. While you don’t trust (or like) Kass, I bet you can swing her away from Tony and Woo, and I bet Jeremiah can bring Jefra over. 2. Tasha (8) See above, minus the HII. Actually, you’ll probably be the one to swing Kass back into the fold. [Kass, Jefra, and Trish ought to make a play for a 4-4 rock draw, but that doesn’t benefit you in the current climate.] 3. Kass (3) Still in goat position. I bet with proper use of flattery, Spenser and Tasha can make you think that you’re “back” in charge. [And we’re back to the anvil of foreshadowing.] 4. Jefra (5) Let’s see: Spenser - fox, Tasha - bear, Kass - goat, you - bunny. Yeah, that fits. 5. Jeremiah (9) “Immunity threat” member who thinks he’s part of the main alliance. Best case scenario? Late Immunity run to become Fabio 2.0. [Jeremiah hasn’t shown himself to be a challenge threat, but I’m not sure the cultural bias cloud can be lifted from the players eyes.] 6. Trish (1) Tony wasn’t being overly paranoid as much as he was overplaying his hand, and making a move too early. Thus screwing over the game of the remaining “brawns.” You’re one of the better players on the island, and the editing is really trying to hide it - I think Tony’s screw up is the reason. 7. Woo (4) Because you’re not the primary target. 8. Tony (2) You are. GONE LJ (6) You were going to play a more classic numbers game, and make your move against Tony/Woo at six (or seven,) however, as an all-newbies season not everyone is playing by “classic” rules. [And yes, I am preaching from the mountaintop for continued seasons like this. And shall continue.]

I miss the Rotu4 pecking order challenge. They haven't had it for awhile because of the lack of reward challenges, (yet another reason to hate Redemption Island seasons.) Can someone refresh my memory - didn't they do an Immunity Challenge (at least once) with a "three strikes" challenge? Obviously it's totally unfair to folk who NEED to win immunity, but for some reason I have a feeling that they had to learn that the hard way. (And perhaps, slowly as well.)

Was the aftershow worth watching at all? Since I don't really care about the drunken/hooking-up part of the show, I'm guessing it isn't...

merylinkid, did you see the tuk-tuk drivers? (Jet or Cord) wasn't being racist, he was comparing to previous experience on this current race. Every season it seems that there is one episode where being able to read the clue ourselves would answer so many questions. I don't think that some teams suffered poor taxi-luck, rather I think many (most) teams mis-interpreted the clue; the taxi drivers were doing their best with "those crazy tourists confusing piazza and via..." While I agree that Caroline and Jennifer disappoint with their instinct to get someone to help them, rather than do the damn task themselves, they also deserve credit for coming in second after having to do (imo) the toughest speed bump in the history of the speed bump.

It looks like Dustin may have done something In July of 2013. But I'm too lazy (and frankly dis-interested) to fall into a Google-hole to get the particulars. So, what a shock, a Challenge cast member may not be the best human being in real life. While John is correct in saying that, "this isn't a team game, all of this changes tomorrow," it was interesting that Laurel's choices were the ones voted in. Without his cadre/ groupies to hide behind, it looks like he'll be in trouble this season. (Wishful thinking.) I enjoyed the discussion on what the better strategy would be: try to vote of strong players, so that you'll have easier opponents in the final (which may be too forward thinking when the death card is in play. Or in John's case, when you don't have most of your dependable alliance mates around.,) Or vote out the weak, so that when you are in a team or pairs challenge, you don't have a "Big Easy" like anchor around your neck. John favors the former, as he is approaching "weak" status in comparison to his cast mates, Laurel favors the latter, as she's a beast. (In the most positive way possible, folks.)

So earlier, I made the mistake of thinking that Spencer found the Terry/Yul idol - it turns out that his clue was for the “regular” type idol, (either Tony or LJ’s, reseeded.) This obviously isn’t as good for Spencer, but maybe that’s just my testosterone speaking. Ben Wade ought to be loving this season, Morgan was the second player targeted for, essentially, not being an active player. She didn't help around camp, and she wasn’t particularly making herself useful to either alliance. She didn’t, (to paraphrase Tony,) “deserve to be here/ have a chance to win.” Post merge, an obvious goat like that usually hangs around for a long spell. This is the greatest argument for all-newbie seasons: they don’t automatically play by the established paradigms. Black Buff Tribe 1. Trish (2) I think you are the quiet Adderall to Tony’s over-the-top ADHD. Admittedly Tony has some really good ideas, but he also can’t help but be too pleased with himself for having them. I think you temper his enthusiasm, and I think you help direct the targeting (perhaps off camera.) [Remember that the whole Lindsey imbroglio had its roots in Lindsey not “doing as much” around camp.] 2. Tony (1) You no longer have an idol, and you are an obvious “don’t take to the final” player. But you’re charismatic, and seem to hold sway over your alliance. (Again, I do these rankings while trying to ignore the red herring laden “next time on Survivor,” previews.) 3. Kass (3) Current goat position. You may “deserve” to be in the game, but you’re not getting a lot of jury votes. 4. Woo (4) Because you’re tightest with Trish and Tony. 5. Jefra (5) Because you don’t come across as a threat. You are helping around camp though, right? 6. LJ (6) You used your idol, and you’re the biggest immunity threat to Trish, Tony, (and Kass.) 7. Spenser (9) If played, the HII can keep you around for an extra tribal council, but you’re an immunity threat, so ... (Caveat: I really think he’s getting a winner’s edit.) 8. Tasha (8) Okay, now you’ll be viewed as an immunity threat, but classic Survivor sexism means that ... 9. Jeremiah (10) ... will be viewed as a greater Immunity Challenge threat, even though he hasn’t really shown much of that to date. Another danger for Jeremiah is that he doesn’t seem to be “playing the game” as much as Spenser and Tasha - could this group actually penalize him for that? GONE Morgan (7) In one of Tony’s reasonable ideas, you were identified as someone that no one would use an idol on. He was right.

I'll do my wall of text rankings later, but for a season in which I wasn't rooting for or against anyone in particular... Spencer: Dead to me before the opening credits. "The estrogen talking," really? Too bad you have a winner's edit and the Yul/Terry idol. Morgan: Dead to me before the opening credits. I want to be there when your 40 year old self watches this and cringes. And lest you think I'm a Kass fan - I may not be rooting against her, but if she were to somehow (despite all of the editing,) win this season, I would be disappointed. And while Woo isn't dead to me, he should have given the clue back to Spencer once Spencer said (generic paraphrase,) "Hey, give that back." (Mind you, I'd have been cool with him reading it first, but taking it was bogus.)

Eggman (in the John Cochrane thread) said: And the key part is "For whatever reason," in South Pacific the editors choose to show us how Savaii treated John C.. Here, in Cagayan, we've been led to believe that Kass and (Tasha at least, the "Brain" triumvirate at best,) were a unit. Obviously we're at the mercy of the narrative that the producer's have chosen to give us, so, for whatever reason, we're not supposed to believe that Kass came to see herself at the bottom (though, apparently Trish was able to pick it up,) but instead that Kass is a random number generator of a player who is willing to sacrifice her potential numerical advantage for "creating chaos." I believe that part of the reason is that the production/editorial staff is incapable of giving (older) women a complex, nuanced, game-playing edit. Look at Natalie W. and Sophie's edits for example - completely understated. Denise's win took a seat behind celebrity Lisa, idiot returning players, a hot-mess vs hot-mess catfight for power, and the "strength" of her own ally Malcolm. Kim S.'s win was sabotaged to look like she was a Survivor PhD playing with third graders. (Really, other than Parv's FvF win and both of Cirie's non-win's, have any women received a "strategist" edit?) [Do we need to port over the Gender, Race, Age, and Class Issues thread over?]

Allegedly. No Topic for her, so I'll start it. I think she just made one of the biggest blunders possible on this show. She was jealous of Sarah getting all of the attention, and sacrificed long term power (that she had with the rest of the original Luzon's,) just because she wasn't the one with the short term power. Instead of being up 6-4, with the power to get rid of her nemesis whenever she wants (including the very next tribal council!,) she's now at the bottom of a different 6-4 group, with the other side feeling she's betrayed them. (And not really wanting to vote for her if she makes F3.) You're not allowed to give yourself a nickname. A pox on CBS for hashtagging it.

I’m actually angry after an episode of Survivor. That doesn’t happen (and I’ve only bailed on a couple of seasons (Hantz related,),) and it isn’t as if I am rooting for a particular player (or against one either.) Sarah and Kass both played so poorly this episode it just is pissing me off. I think I now understand why John Cochran’s flip in S23 garners (still, to this day,) such strong debate. When the show stopped giving local-lore challenges, and thus giving the contestants a chance to learn a smattering of local languages, we started getting these god-awful portmanteau names. I am going to protest by refusing to use their tribal name. Black Buff Tribe 1. Tony (1 Solana) You played your HII, which was a mistake (just showing it would have been enough - but I can understand you thinking that their “other choice” would have been LJ.) But you’re in the 3-2 majority of your core alliance, and you can get rid of Kass before her vote becomes important. (Your comment to Sarah regarding how much she’ll be needed once it’s 6-4 shows you understand this.) Unless you want to keep Kass as a goat - in which case Trish and you probably offer her more (demographically) than Jefra and LJ. 2. Trish (4S) I have to give the casting folk more credit than usual. Almost everyone shows flashes of strategic thinking - even the mactors. I thought you were an overly emotional player who was willing to sacrifice numerical advantage to “likability.” But you were patient, observant, and when the time came you played Kass like a marionette. 3. Kass (1 Aparri) Are your eyes green? ‘Cause the jealousy monster completely derailed your game. You’re ranked third because I think you’ll make the final three as the goat; I agree with Spencer that you have NO chance of winning. When the final vote was revealed, there really wasn’t any discussion, they all knew it was you. To keep this post reasonably short, I’ll talk about why I think you royally screwed up in your thread. 4. Woo (5S) You may be in greater danger than this - I think you are capable of dominating the Individual Immunity challenges, putting a target on your back - but you’re the third member of the “Brawns” who will have the sub-majority within the (now) dominant alliance. 5. Jefra (3S) 6. LJ (2S) Providing this is the final six, you’re the rogue immunity threat. And, while much like Tony’s playing of his HII, your revealing and playing yours was understandable, it was a much bigger mistake for you to do so. If there is any way for you and Jefra to reconcile with Jeremiah and Morgan, you could pull off a truly memorable blindside/game change. Unfortunately I don’t think that’s in the cards. 7. Morgan (4A) 8. Tasha (2A) Neither of you will be viewed as immediate challenge threats. 9. Spencer (3A) 10. Jeremiah (6A) While I think Spencer is possibly a bigger immunity threat than Jeremiah, I’m guessing that Tony and company will react more stereotypically and target Jeremiah first. And was Jeremiah floated Jefra as a target first, then Spencer made the argument on the grounds that the Solana’s wouldn’t predict her as a target, and that she wouldn’t be the recipient of a HII play? So,so close. GONE Sarah (5A) In the interest of brevity, I’ll write more in your thread, but you were doomed once you told Tony you were a floater. (Is this a Big Brother discussion?) Much like Christy in the Amazon, if the swing vote doesn’t commit early, they really are in danger from both sides. (Or at least one side plus a subset of the other.)

I'm going to compare Kass to John C. in the current episode thread, and I don't want to derail that thread with the "Did John make the right move in S23 or not?," debate. So, here we go. In my opinion John was handed a lose/lose decision at the infamous tribal council where he switched his vote to avoid drawing the rock of doom. He had the choice of being on the bottom of the Savaii alliance, where he had been poorly treated (and received votes at every tribal,) or the choice of being at the bottom of the Upolu alliance, where he had a fresh start, and the hope that they would be grateful. Meta-gaming aside (John was a big enough fan to realize that flipping would increase his chances of being brought back,) John decided to stick it to the "bullies" of Savaii. [And face it, John has probably had experience with bullies in his life...] Savaii had three people immune from the rock draw, Keith, the vote recipient, Dawn (female II winner,) and Ozzy (male II winner,) so mathematically the rock draw favored the Savaii alliance much more than the usual scenario. But John wasn't interested in doing what was best for Savaii, given a choice between being at the bottom of either alliance, he turned out to be more interested in sticking it to Savaii. [And ultimately the choice garnered him $1 million and a writing job at CBS.]

In response to scrb - How about: "Small talk: Just hooking up" ?

That just jumped to the top part of the list that contains “Most Dangerous Roadblocks Evah!.” Spilled gasoline, chances of getting run over, and chances of getting pinned between tuk-tuks - just, wow. And, it rewarded being obnoxiously competitive. And it had a (unrealized) chance to have "miss the train" drama. I noticed that, the other teams having noticed Rachel and Brendan’s “get off on the ‘wrong’ side of the train” advantage, that they all jumped across the tracks when they got to the next stop. (Again, danger!) [Except, of course Jet and Cord at the finish line...] During the tuk-tuk ride to the elephant preserve it looked as if everyone was having a great time. Except Rachel. I wonder if Brendan wasn’t quite as supportive as the (post-leg) interviews tried to make it seem. Anyone else have flashbacks as Dave is running on sand towards a Pit Stop? Flight Time and Big Easy almost got taxi-lucked into last place; interesting to not that there wasn’t too much of a time difference in Detours. (Provided one paid attention to the demonstration.) The “these teams are behind” vibe at the papermaking challenge was too relaxed, I called it as non-elimination while Caroline and Jennifer were still at the Detour. And Caroline’s dung-paper pearl necklace was very distracting. At another site, ;), folk were saying the Detours were unbalanced, and it wasn’t fair to have only four spots available for the elephants. (Hi, TheRabbi, and others.) I have to disagree about the time difference of the Detours. The Globies were the fifth team to arrive at the detour, thus forced to do the paper task. Had their cab driver not screwed up they could have been in a footrace with both Jessica and John and Dave and Connor. If they had paid attention to the fact they needed to press the paper, they (possibly) could have passed them both. And if one of the four elephants had been feeling temperamental? I think they were very balanced.

I'm always late to the snark for the Challenge - I don't have cable, and MTV puts recent episodes on a delay. (It also means, that to avoid spoilers, I have to skip Grantland's weekly reality wrap up column for 1-3 weeks at a time.) I hope they put it on a short delay this season (like two seasons ago,) as opposed to last seasons two week delay. I don't watch The Real World, so these famewhores come in with a fairly clean slate, (with the exception of those that really stand out to the Grantland folk - Hurricane, I'm looking at you,) but they usually fall out of my good graces within the first three episodes. (The drama/drinking/hooking-up episodes that I don't care for as much.)

I see recaps for MTV's competition / horrible people living together show, but no forum. New season premieres April 10!

Trip's recap, and various internet discussions, have gotten on Trish for her post-TC actions. And I thought I'd defend her, a bit. Virtually every non-premiere episode opens with a post Tribal Council group talk (in night-o-vision!,) and the majority of these feature someone defending their vote, or demanding someone defend theirs. I believe that Trish took the initiative instigating the former, (and trying to do it civilly,) rather than let Lindsey do the latter, (which, well, we saw how well an attempt at civility went.) As far as I could tell, within the scene, every escalation in nastiness came from Lindsey. I suspect that Trish is trying her best, but as the oldest player on the island she's having trouble relating to her tribemates. If she makes an effort it either looks awkward (I'm a man, baby!,) or she get's lambasted for it. (See: Lindsey's repugnant comments regarding Trish flirting with LJ.)

As usual, I’m going to ignore the fact that the preview clearly shows a merge, and rank by tribe. Big shuffle next week, as the rankings morph from, “who’s going to make the merge,” to, “who do I think has a chance to make the final three.” Solana (Purple) No changes from last weeks rankings. 1. Tony (1) You still have an HII which will continue to inflate your ratings. Since 6>5, I hope to be able to drop you like a rock next week. (Flashes of brilliance, undone by hubris and a desire to be a “character.”) 2. LJ (2) Also the holder of an HII. Possible winner’s edit, though lower key than usual for a male winner. (Especially one that Jiffy Pop is drooling over.) 3. Jefra (3) Tight with LJ, under-the-radar, and showing flashes of strategy. Possible UTR winner’s edit ala Natalie. 4. Trish (4) Tight with Tony, could be in danger if the tribe is worried about keeping “strength” for challenges [which we know isn’t the case, in fact this becomes a positive moving forward.] Possible F3 goat potential if she is as irritating to her tribemates as her edit is showing us. 5. Woo (5) Low man on the totem pole. [And, in danger as an “immunity threat” going forward. Tell me his MA background wouldn’t be an advantage in many of the endurance challenges that typically favor women.] OUT Quitter McQuitterson (6) Aparri (Orange) Just a minor bit of movement here, as Alexis was already at the bottom... 1. Kass (1) 2. Tasha (2) 3. Spencer (3) A unified three on a tribe of chaos. [spencer is getting a winner’s edit and will be at the top of these three next week. I still believe it is possible that last weeks “final three” comment is a contender for this season’s “million dollar quote.”] 4. Morgan (6) You know who has been playing an actively stealthy game, (as opposed to a passive, typically UTR one,)? The same woman whose name hasn’t been brought up as a potential nominee despite being singled out as the “weakest” in the first episode, that’s who. 5. Sarah (4) I’ll go into this later in a bit, but if you thought you were the swing vote before ... 6. Jeremiah (5) The choice was definitely between you and Alexis, and the Brain triumvirate may have kept you around for “tribal challenge strength.” [Again, like Woo, this is a liability going forward.] You made a huge error in not revealing the HII clue to the rest of the tribe in that sliver of opportunity Woo and Tony gave you when they were leaving, before Tony realized he had to get it back from you. You made a second huge error in not demanding that he show you the instructions that said you had to give it back to him. OUT Alexis (7) The Brains thought you reeked of desperation. And they may have elected to err on the possibility of another tribal Immunity Challenge coming up. Finally, the merge... Looking back at the original tribes: “Brains” - Three of you. Seem to be unified. “Beauties” - Four of you. Fractured, and while LJ and Jefra would probably welcome Jeremiah back, Morgan is a bit of a wild card. [And what’s up with LJ’s obsession with Morgan as presented by editing?] “Brawns” - Four of you. Woo is edited as on the outs, but he was with Sarah and Trish to vote out Cliff the episode that they couldn’t suck on purpose as much as J’Tia did naturally. How “betrayed” is Sarah really feeling? LJ should be able to convince Jeremiah to switch, Tony and/or Trish should be able to do the same with Sarah, giving a 7-4 advantage at best, and and 6-5 as a backup. Of course if they both stay with nuAparri it’s all Tony’s fault. (He tried to boot Jeremiah with the HII clue ploy, he poisoned the Sarah well with his leading the “Final Five” victory dance.) Sweet, sweet freudenschade with a side of hubris sauce, please.

The editing tells me it's Spencer, thus my vote. That's not going to stop me from rooting for LJ and (surprisingly, to me,) Morgan.