AshleyN

Critics Choice has a reputation of blatantly trying to predict the Oscars, so it's kind of hilarious that in the most contentious race they found a way to give all three contenders a trophy. Olivia Colman is almost certainly going to win the BAFTA (she's beloved in the UK and The Favourite led BAFTA nominations by a wide margin) so SAG is going to be really important there. It's kind of shocking to me how quickly Bradley Cooper seems to have faded in the Best Actor race. He has a huge narrative plus was legitimately REALLY good in the movie, but it feels like he's been shoved out of the conversation for the win by Bale and Malek. I guess going up against not one, but two actors playing famous people was too much.

Okay, it sucks that this guy is such a shithead, and I honestly feel terrible for Mahershala Ali, but I won't deny that this amused me:

That's rough for Regina King. Missing out on one of SAG or BAFTA is one thing, but missing both might be too much to overcome. Her best hope is for SAG and BAFTA to split winners -- I could see Amy Adams and Rachel Weisz doing it maybe. If one of them takes both awards they're probably going all the way. Yeah, I was actually noticing earlier how BlacKkKlansman has been kind of quietly showing up everywhere. Roma has major factors working against it, but its biggest advantage I think is that the competition is pretty fractured -- nothing's really established itself as the clear alternate (A Star is Born had all the buzz, but so far has failed to back that up with any notable wins and the one big award that was supposed to be a lock for it, Best Actor, is now very much in doubt). But BlacKkKlansman should be the frontrunner for Adapted Screenplay already, so I agree that if it can pull off a win at one of the other big guilds it has to be taken very seriously. On a related note, it's possible I just missed it, but given the comparisons that have been made between Green Book and Driving Miss Daisy, I'm surprised I haven't seen any talk about the Spike Lee connection there. I wouldn't be surprised to see that narrative pop up as we get closer to actual Oscar voting.

Leo is the big exception I think. It's hard because he works so infrequently (I just checked and holy crap I did not realize that The Revenant, his last movie, came out three years ago), but he's just about the only actor in Hollywood who hasn't been part of any franchise. And while his movies aren't blockbusters on the scale of your Marvel's or Star Wars', I don't think something like The Revenant or The Wolf of Wall Street would have come close to their grosses (especially internationally) with any other actor in the lead.

Yeah, that was my main takeaway from last night. Even when the initial raves started coming in for Roma I was VERY skeptical of a foreign language film actually winning Best Picture, but this year is really starting to feel like it might be the perfect storm in that regard. I just can't see the Academy, which has been trending increasingly highbrow since the infamous Crash win, giving their top award to a movie with a sub-50 metascore or a reverse Driving Miss Daisy that looks like it came straight out of the 90s. But while there's still time left, none of the English-language contenders seem to be generating any real momentum. Even if you look at The Shape of Water, which didn't become the favourite until it won PGA, it still at least managed to take Director at the Globes. It's also worth pointing out that while they had their detractors beforehand, it was the big wins at the Globes that set off the hardcore backlash against both La La Land and Three Billboards, so I'm expecting Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody to start getting hammered any moment now. This is another thing that has me leaning toward Roma actually -- Cuaron is starting to feel unbeatable in the Director race, and while the categories aren't tied together the way they used to be, it would be strange for him to be the slam dunk director winner while his movie loses Best Picture for a SECOND time. BTW, he's also the cinematographer and is probably winning that award as well.

She was nominated for both! Lead for Mary Poppins, Supporting for A Quiet Place. It would be kind of fun if she finally broke through at the Oscars with not one, but two nominations.

Just making a joke about how it has three of the best performances of the year but not one of the best casts apparently;) It's a little odd, especially since SAG has films before where the entire nominated ensemble consisted of only three or four actors.

SAG nominations: Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role: Christian Bale, “Vice” Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born” Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody” Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book” John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman” Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role: Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns” Glenn Close, “The Wife” Olivia Colman, “The Favourite” Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born” Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book” Timothee Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy” Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman” Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born” Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: Amy Adams, “Vice” Emily Blunt, “A Quiet Place” Margot Robbie, “Mary Queen of Scots” Emma Stone, “The Favourite” Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite” Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture: “A Star Is Born” “Black Panther” “BlacKkKlansman” “Bohemian Rhapsody” “Crazy Rich Asians” So much for that Regina King sweep. I wonder if there were screener issues, or if the increasingly populist-leaning SAG just didn't care for Beale Street. I still think an Oscar nomination is all but assured, but this will likely hurt her when it comes to the win. If Bohemian Rhapsody cracks the Best Picture lineup I believe it would be, going by metacritic scores, the worst reviewed movie since Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close to do so. That being said the fact that it keeps improbably showing up in overall film categories is making me start to wonder if Rami Malek could actually challenge Bradley Cooper for the Oscar. The movie is clearly loved in some quarters, and he's the easily the most praised element. Given what a banner year this was for diversity in film, it's a shame that it wasn't better reflected here in the individual nominations, especially for the women -- Regina King's snub means that both actress categories are all white. Even if Beale Street wasn't their thing there were other options (most notably Michelle Yeoh, given the fact that they clearly saw and liked Crazy Rich Asians and the randomness of Blunt and (especially) Robbie's mentions there). Did all the other actors in The Favourite suck or something?

LA Film Critics: Best Picture: Roma Runner-up: Burning Director: Debra Granik, Leave No Trace Runner-up: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma Actor: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed Runner-up: Ben Foster, Leave No Trace Actress: Olivia Colman, The Favourite Runner-up: Toni Collette, Hereditary Supporting Actor: Steven Yeun, Burning Runner-up: Hugh Grant, Paddington 2 Supporting Actress: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk Runner-up: Elizabeth Debicki, Widows Screenplay: Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Runner-up: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite Documentary: Shirkers Runner-up: Minding the Gap Animation: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Runner-up: Incredibles 2 Foreign-language: Burning and Shoplifters (tie) Editing: Joshua Altman and Bing Liu, Minding the Gap Runner-up: Alfonso Cuarón and Adam Gough, Roma Production Design: Hannah Beachler, Black Panther Runner-up: Fiona Crombie, The Favourite Music/Score: Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk Runner-up: Justin Hurwitz, First Man Cinematography: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma Runner-up: James Laxton, If Beale Street Could Talk LA always likes to make a few outside-the-box choices, and that continues this year with big wins for Steven Yeun and Debra Granik. On the other hand, Regina King continues to win everything. It'll be interesting to see if she gets Laurie Metcalf'd, or if she just sweeps her way straight to the Oscar. Critics are really trying to push Ethan Hawke into the Best Actor race. It didn't work at the Globes but we'll see if does at the later shows. Is Best Picture going to turn into a critics pick Roma vs. populist fave A Star Is Born race? I wonder if the Netflix factor would come into play there.

It's eligible, but the reviews have been fairly mixed so far. Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie have both gotten very strong individual reviews, but the actress categories (especially lead actress) are really tough this year. Also, it didn't screen at the the earlier festivals (Toronto and Telluride in particular) so they missed out on that early buzz that the other contenders had. Not sure about the Globes, but at the Oscars at least, I believe it's actually meant to be in large part about how the song serves the movie, so things like the context in which it's used and the scene surrounding it are specifically meant to be taken into account (it's why songs from actual musicals usually have a leg up on something like an end-credits song) which makes "Shallow" hard to beat IMO. As a song alone, I might personally give "Always Remember Us This Way" a slight edge, but "Shallow" serves as the centerpiece of one of the most genuinely thrilling cinematic moments of the year, so I can't really argue against it being the choice.

Golden Globe Nominations: Best Motion Picture – Drama “Black Panther” “BlacKkKlansman” “Bohemian Rhapsody” “If Beale Street Could Talk” “A Star Is Born” Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy “Crazy Rich Asians” “The Favourite” “Green Book” “Mary Poppins Returns” “Vice” Best Director – Motion Picture Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born” Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma” Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman” Peter Farrelly, “Green Book” Adam McKay, “Vice” Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born” Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate” Lucas Hedges, “Boy Erased” Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody” John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman” Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama Glenn Close, “The Wife” Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born” Nicole Kidman, “Destroyer” Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” Rosamund Pike, “A Private War” Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy Christian Bale, “Vice” Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Mary Poppins Returns” Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book” Robert Redford, “The Old Man and the Gun” John C. Reilly, “Stan and Ollie” Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns” Olivia Colman, “The Favourite” Elsie Fisher, “Eighth Grade” Charlize Theron, “Tully” Constance Wu, “Crazy Rich Asians” Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture Mahershala Ali, “Green Book” Timothee Chalamet,” Beautiful Boy” Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman” Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” Sam Rockwell, “Vice” Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture Amy Adams, “Vice” Claire Foy, “First Man” Regina King, “IF Beale Street Could Talk” Emma Stone, “The Favourite” Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite” Best Screenplay – Motion Picture “Roma,” Alfonso Cuaron “The Favourite,” Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara “If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins “Vice,” Adam McKay “Green Book,” Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie Best Original Score – Motion Picture “A Quiet Place,” Marco Beltrami “Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat “Black Panther,” Ludwig Göransson “First Man,” Justin Hurwitz “Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman Best Original Song – Motion Picture “All The Stars” (“Black Panther”) “Girl in the Movies (“Dumplin”) “Requiem for a Private War” (“A Private War”) “Revelation” (“Boy Erased”) “Shallow” (“A Star Is Born”) Best Animated Feature Film “Incredibles 2′ “Isle of Dogs” “Murai” “Ralph Breaks the Internet” “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” Best Foreign-Language Film “Capernaum” “Girl” “Never Look Away” “Roma” “Shoplifters” Well, I guess they split the two: Vice gets a big boost, while First Man (aside from Foy) probably received the final nail in its coffin.

Yeah, I think the Globes are really going to be First Man's last stand. If it misses there it's done. I think Gosling at least could make it just because Drama Actor is so empty this year. Vice is interesting: they early reactions made it seem divisive, but even a divisive film should have strong enough supporters to have shown up somewhere, but so far nothing for this one. Like First Man, if it's snubbed at the Globes it's probably in big trouble.

It looks...fine. Like your typical Marvel film. They've pretty much got their formula down to a tee, which means that it will likely end up being fun, if not especially memorable, like most of them are. I will say though, one thing Marvel has consistently nailed has been the casting of their heroes, but I'm not really feeling Larson yet. She's a talented actress, but from the trailers at least doesn't seem to display much in the way of movie-star charisma. I suppose it doesn't help that trailer-Carol doesn't seem to have much personality beyond "stoic badass". Hopefully she can change my mind when we see the whole movie, but I can't help but imagine someone like Charlize Theron in the role, who brought such a commanding presence even to a similarly stoic role in Mad Max, and wondering how different the feel of these trailers would be.

New York Film Critics Circle: Best Picture: “Roma” Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma” Best Screenplay: Paul Schrader, “First Reformed” Best Actress: Regina Hall, “Support the Girls” Best Actor: Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed” Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk” Best Supporting Actor: Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” Best Cinematography: “Roma,” Alfonso Cuaron Best Non-fiction Film: “Minding the Gap,” director Bing Liu Best Foreign Language Film: “Cold War,” director Pawel Pawlikowski Best Animated Feature: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” Best First Film: “Eighth Grade,” director Bo Burnham As expected, Roma is off to a hot start with the critics. It'll be interesting to see if other groups make an effort to go their own way, or if Roma is too strong to be denied. It will still face an uphill battle at the Oscars, given both the foreign-language AND Netflix factors, but a critics sweep (along with what seems to be a less competitive year in general) would certainly help matters. For the second year in a row New York decides to go off the board with one of their actress picks. I haven't seen the film, but people who have seem super happy about Regina Hall's win, so that's nice. She is also apparently the first black actress to ever win this particular award. Kind of surprised to see The Favourite shut out completely. I don't believe NYFCC publicizes their runners-up like other groups, so who knows if it lost some tight categories or if they just didn't care for it.

Aaaaaand it just won the People's Choice at TIFF (a virtual guarantee of a Best Picture nomination in recent years), so that will put a target square on it's back. Kind of surprising to see A Star Is Born not place at all, but that might be for the best -- it avoids to much overexposure/pressure at this point. It obviously didn't hurt The Shape of Water last year. On the other hand both Roma and If Beale Street Could Talk struck me as critics darlings that might not connect with a wider audience, so doing so well in a contest that tends to lean more populist is probably more important for them.

It won't be a "favourite" in the same way, but go ahead and add Green Book to this if it becomes more than a TIFF thing. Well meaning or not, I'm pretty sure this is going to get ripped when Twitter gets hold of it.

So is it too to predict Roma to dominate the critics awards? The fact that that it's Alfonso Cuaron's follow-up to Gravity means it will automatically start out with much more visibility than most foreign language films which will help in the actual Oscar race too. I don't think it'll be able to content for the win (outside of the foreign language category obviously) but it should at least be in the mix for nominations for both Picture and Director. I'm also going to go ahead and predict A Star is Born as this years designated "early favourite status turns into vicious backlash" movie.

I'll agree with those who said the person I felt for most last night was definitely Osaka. She played an incredible tournament, showed zero sign of nerves in her first major final, and most likely would have won anyway, only to have what should have been one of the best moments of her life stolen from her. Judging by her age and ability I don't think this is going to be her last win, so I really hope the next one ends better for her. Regarding Serena, everyone seems to want to turn this into a hero or villain situation, but I dunno, is it possible to admit that she has very legitimate grievances with regard to how she's been treated by tennis establishment AND that she also has a history of not reacting to losing all that well? Like, there's zero question that she's had to deal with a LOT of bullshit that no white and/or male player of her stature would have had to, and that there have been times when she's been genuinely treated unfairly (didn't the challenge system literally become a thing due to a match where she was repeatedly screwed over on line calls?). But also, I don't think it's a coincidence that these meltdowns always seem to happen in similar situations -- when she runs into a player who's white hot and she can't find an answer for their play, whether it be Clijsters, Stosur, or now Osaka. She's an icon and is rightfully lauded for many things, but it shouldn't be a crime to admit that she has flaws. When it comes to the chair umpire, I agree with a comment I saw that tennis officials desperately need to have some sort of get together to iron out just what is expected of them. Because while there's always some degree of interpretation involved in these things, right now there seems to be way to much that depends on the umpire's discretion. According to the rulebook all three of Serena's violations last night were justified, but I can understand why people would get upset when the whole situation unfolded in the same tournament where a different chair umpire literally climbed out of his chair to give a pep talk to a player. I do think some of the accusations being thrown at Carlos Ramos are unfair though, since people who follow tennis closely all seem to agree that he's known to be a stickler for the rules, and will basically call any infraction he sees regardless of who, when, or where. It was actually interesting that Serena's coach brought up Nadal in his interview, because I don't know about coaching violations but I'm almost certain that Ramos is one of the few umpires I've seen call Rafa on his (often egregious) time violations. Personally I'd prefer an official like that to one who lets things slide depending on the situation, which only leads to situations where players get used to getting away with things and feel like they're being treated unfairly when they actually get called on them (I've also never agreed with the idea of officials "playing to the score/situation" -- their job should be to enforce the rules, not decide when and where the rules apply). That being said, I also saw someone point out that the best officials tend to be the ones who are able to de-escalate tense situations rather than escalating them, and I don't think it would have hurt Ramos to have given Serena a soft warning before the third violation, even if it was just a reminder that the next one would cost her a game.

Kit and Emilia being submitted as leads played a big part in that though. Kit would most likely have gotten in over Nikolaj if they'd kept him in supporting, and Emilia would have had a better shot too. And to be honest, along with Maisie the Lannister siblings are the best actors in the cast IMO, at least among the "major" characters who have enough focus and screentime to be considered for nominations. I'd love to see Lena win an Emmy before this show ends, but vote-splitting isn't always a thing -- there were two Handmaid's actresses nominated last year and Ann Dowd still won -- and there seems to be a lot of love for The Handmaid's Tale from the actors right now. In some cases multiple nominees from the same show can actually help, since it essentially gives them multiple episode submissions, allowing voters to see more of their work. I'm predicting that The Handmaid's Tale defends it's win in Best Drama Series this year, but, barring a complete disaster, GoT will win next year for the final season.

That's a hell of a cast for Widows. I'm looking forward to it. A Star Is Born looks pretty, if generic. I could see this being Bradley Cooper's Oscar ticket though -- playing an aging, alcoholic artist? That's catnip for the Academy, and he'll probably get points from a lot of voters for directing it himself too.

I actually just watched this a little while ago and Anton Lesser is absolutely terrific as Thomas More. He stole every scene he was in. According to IMDB he got a (well-deserved) BAFTA nomination for it, but the Emmys went for the bigger name in Damian Lewis.

I really enjoyed this. It wasn't perfect, but given the sheer ambition here I thought they pulled it off about as well as they could have. I think it was always meant to be more of an "event" than a movie and that's what it felt like. It was a smart choice to make Thanos essentially the main character. It's hard to deliver a villain that's been teased for six years without it being a letdown, but in this case he was worth the hype. I will say that in a cast of this size there are bound to be characters who feel underutilized, but I was pretty surprised to see Cap was one of them. Maybe it's because he's my favourite, but aside from his badass entrance and one or two other little moments (his adorably polite "I am Steve Rogers" was just perfect) it didn't feel like he had much to do. Even his reunion with Bucky was kind of underplayed. And while most of the character combinations worked out great, I'm not sure that pairing him with T'Challa as the leads in that storyline was the best idea. I love them both, but they each fill a similar role of the humble hero and shine brighter when they have more colourful characters to bounce off of. At least Steve didn't fare as badly as Natasha though, who honestly felt like a glorified prop here. And speaking of Natasha, I can't believe amount of speculation I've seen that Hulk will come back in response to her dying. Can you imagine the response if Marvel were to fridge their original female Avenger in order to cure her ex's performance issues? Jesus, the internet would melt. On the opposite end of the spectrum was Thor, who got easily his best showcase in any Avengers movie, and probably (along with Gamora) the best showcase of any of the good guys. His Big Damn Hero moment in Wakanda might have been the best in the entire MCU so far, and his interaction with Rocket throughout the movie was fantastic. I loved his line about how they teach Groot as an elective on Asgard too -- my favourite throw away moment in the film. And his conversation with Rocket where they actually acknowledge the amount of legitimately heavy shit he's been through recently was exactly what I felt was missing from Ragnorak. I get that that movie was meant to be more of a comedy, but as much as I liked it the fact that they felt the need to undermine seemingly every moment of sincerity with a gag or a quip got annoying after awhile. I actually felt that this film managed to balance the comedy and drama side of things better than most of the recent MCU films that I've seen (which is most, but not all, of them). I get that humour is one of their trademarks, but some of the newer movies have leaned a little to heavily on the bathos, whereas I really liked that this one managed to be legitimately laugh-out-loud funny in parts without actually undermining the seriousness of the threat.

I was kind of rooting for Parrot too, if only because I felt bad that his slopestyle silver was completely overshadowed next to the (understandable) focus on McMorris' comeback from that awful crash. But Toutant has gotten even less coverage, so good for him for bringing it today.

So it turns out it was the one Canadian that nobody was talking about that wins gold. That's awesome for him. And Parrot and McMorris already had medals from slopestyle, so now everyone gets to take home some hardware!