AshleyN

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Oh man, watching a Chinese team skating to Turandot just makes me think of of this: One of my favourite pairs performances ever. I love that you can't even hear the music at the end because the crowd is already so loud.

They're not necessarily the prettiest pair to watch, but I'm happy for them that they get to go out with a skate like that.

Shame that French team made those mistakes. I liked them a lot, even if I wasn't a huge fan of that Simon and Garfunkel cover.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure the allegations have been out there for awhile. NBC just chose to ignore them until it was brought up elsewhere.

That was a great night of skating. The free skate is going to be a bloodbath: less than a point between 1&2, less than three points separating 3-9.

The commentators just said this is Savchenko's FIFTH Olympics? That's amazing. Shame that she'll likely miss out on gold again, barring mistakes from the Russians or Chinese.

I don't remember that, but I do remember seeing video of Jessica Dube getting a skate blade in the face on one. It was terrifying.

Love all these suggestions, but from my biased perspective I'd probably start with Umbrellas of Cherbourg. They've might have had better or more difficult programs throughout the years, but this is the one that converted me into an Ice Dance fan after never being all that cracked on the discipline. IIRC they actually won the free dance at worlds with this, which was basically unheard of for a team that young and only two years out of juniors. I get the criticism that they've gone back to the romance well a little too often, but at the time this struck me as pure magic and ten years later still takes my breath away.

I find these whole conversation interesting because I remember after Vancouver, where Evan Lysacek won gold without even attempting a quad, there was a lot of talk the other way: that the sport was regressing and that there wasn't enough incentive for skaters to attempt the more difficult jumps. Now the pendulum seems to have swung all the way in the other direction*. I get that it's a difficult balance to hit but I like the idea of increasing the GOE range, which should really play up the high risk/high reward nature of the jumps. Because in order for the sport to progress there does need to be some incentive for skaters to take risks, but the whole idea of going out there and attempting jumps that you know you're going to fall on just to get the rotations is silly, and makes the sport look silly. *On a semi-related note, as someone who kind of drifts in and out of skating fandom and hasn't payed close attention the last couple of years, when did quad lutzes become, like, a normal thing? Because that was kind of shocking to me.

Yeah, it's a bit of a shame that Weaver and Poje couldn't get in there for a medal, but I kind of love that Canada really went all in for this event. The one substitution they did make was between two ladies who are pretty evenly matched. Anyways, watching this event was a nice reminder of what a terrific generation of Canadian skaters this group is. I assume that, ladies-aside, they'll all be retiring after these games so it's great to see them go out on top like this.

Not American, but Penny Oleksiak won individual gold in swimming in Rio (albeit in a tie).

My favourite figure skating commentator has always been Tracy Wilson. Knowledgeable, informative and able to be critical without coming across as overly snarky or mean-spirited. She's great at helping a layperson like myself understand the intricacies of the scoring system, why certain skaters receive the scores they do, and some of the more subtle differences that separate the skaters. Does anyone know if she's working these games for anyone? It's be nice to see her covering the Ice Dance at least, since I find that former singles skaters doing commentary often struggle there (eg. Kurt Browning, who I otherwise like quite a bit).

So Saoirse Ronan just missed (by about four months I believe) breaking Jennifer Lawrence's record as the youngest three-time Oscar nominee. All three of her nominations have come for Best Picture nominees, two of which she carried as the sole lead (and in the case of Brooklyn at least, I highly doubt it would have been in the Best Picture conversation were it not for the attention her performance brought to it). She may not have any box office smashes on her resume yet (though there are several indie hits), but damn, what a start to a career. I've been a fan of hers since Atonement, and I think what's most impressive to me is that all three of her nominations have come for completely different characters and performances. I think Lady Bird in particular is going to be really important for her, since it should help her avoid getting trapped in the "British/Irish Period Queen" box. I'm kind of starting to wonder though if she's going to follow the Kate Winslet path of racking up nominations while they make her keep waiting on a win.

I had a feeling the Directors branch would throw a wrench in there somewhere -- they rarely follow the script completely -- but I figured Guadagnino or Sean Baker would take the passion pick spot. Paul Thomas Anderson makes perfect sense in retrospect though: he's a highly admired past nominee, everyone who saw Phantom Thread seemed to adore it, and the late release explains the lack of precursor attention. Selfishly, I'm just hoping that these nominations mean it might expand into enough theaters to makes it to my city. I think Argo was a much stronger frontrunner than Three Billboards though, and Affleck's snub was a huge shock (he pretty much swept the other non-critics Director awards) which arguably galvanize its supporters. Yeah, I think generally speaking if a movie has broad enough support to win Best Picture it should probably have enough to at least make the top 5 in Director. And while I know everyone will be making Argo comparisons the first movie I actually thought of here was Spotlight which, like Three Billboards, was considered to be more of a screenplay and actor driven film. But despite actually having a shakier precursor run than McDonagh (he missed BAFTA), Tom McCarthy still managed to show up at the Oscars. Of course, that's not a perfect comparison either, since Spotlight was kind of in the opposite position in the race to Three Billboards, as the consensus choice against two more polarizing rivals. So yeah, I don't think this kills the movie's chances -- it is still the favourite to win Screenplay and two acting awards, which could be enough to carry it the rest of the way -- but it is a hit.

It feels a little strange that unless something very unexpected happens, none of the critical darlings are going to win acting Oscars this year. I know critics love doesn't always equal industry love but there's usually at least one that goes all the way, isn't there? Also, unless one of them can upset Three Billboards in Screenplay, it's looking increasingly likely to me that both Lady Bird and Get Out will be completely shut out at the Oscars. I can't imagine that going over well.

Kind of hoping one of Lady Bird or Get Out wins SAG ensemble tonight, the other wins WGA and/or DGA, and Dunkirk wins BAFTA. It seems fitting given how this season has gone for things to remain a clusterfuck right up until the end. I agree with you about The Shape of Water though: that SAG snub is really the only big knock against its chances at this point, especially since it's not even a case like Gravity or La La Land where there just isn't an "ensemble" to reward. That being said, it's major competitors all have weaknesses too, so maybe it just won't matter. Speaking of SAG, it'll be interesting to see if Willem Dafoe or Laurie Metcalf can climb back into the race tonight or if they'll remain a critics-only thing. I haven't seen The Florida Project but I'm really rooting for Metcalf. It's also kind of nuts that, while I'd pick McDormand if I had to, I could honestly see any of the non-Dench Best Actress nominees winning tonight?

God, this. And beyond just not being appropriately valued or appreciated for being a team player, we've literally JUST SEEN, with Mira Sorvino and Ashley Judd, how easy it is to kill a women's career with just a whisper of her being "difficult". If anyone other than a white male had tried to pull a stunt like this they'd never work again.

She was credited as co-director on a film she made with Joe Swanberg back in her mumblecore days, so I assume she was ineligible. 'Course that doesn't explain Sheridan.

It's a bit of a shame, because in most years that screenplay nomination probably would have been a given, but that category is stacked this year (there's a pretty good chance that Call Me By Your Name will be the only Best Picture nominee to come out of the Adapted field) so it's most likely going to be fighting it out for the last spot (probably against I, Tonya, unless Phantom Thread enjoys a late push or the Academy shows more love for The Post than anyone else has). I, Tonya kind of feels like it's stretching the definition of "contemporary", doesn't it? I guess you could argue that Lady Bird does too but I'm happy to see it get a mention, even though I'm sure this will be the only one. That area of "recent past" is a tricky one to navigate, but while the costumes weren't as flashy or elaborate as some I thought they did a fantastic job of evoking a sense of time, place, and character.

That's a good point. But although it's arguably what cost La La Land and The Revenant/The Big Short in the end, in both those cases there was a clear consensus choice to rally around, whereas I wonder if the anti-Three Billboards vote might be too scattered (between Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Get Out most likely)? Yeah, I've seen it pointed out that Screenplay is actually much more tied to Best Picture these days, whereas Director and Cinematography seem to go hand in hand now. Maybe it's because that's when I started paying closer attention, but I feel like the 12 Years a Slave/Gravity year was a bit of a turning point there: throughout that whole season there never seemed to be any question that Cuaron was winning Director, even though 12 Years a Slave was always the Best Picture frontrunner. The Affleck snub felt more like a fluke at the time -- he won pretty much everywhere else and probably would have won the Oscar if he'd been nominated -- but maybe it was just a sign of things to come. On a semi-related note, it's also been awhile since we've had a film pull off a big sweep at the Oscars (the last was what, Slumdog Millionaire?), and it's become much more common for films to win Best Picture with just one or two other awards -- Spotlight won just two awards in total, while Argo, 12 Years a Slave, and Moonlight took three. La La Land looked ready to end that last year, but, well...

Oof at those Lady Bird and Get Out snubs. Seems like Best Picture is really Three Billboards award to lose. It's gonna get ugly if the Directors branch manages to snub both Gerwig and Peele. Kind of wild that Judi Dench as Queen Victoria misses here of all places, after making the Globes and SAG. Interesting that I, Tonya continues to exceed expectations. It's bad luck for Margot Robbie that Best Actress is so fierce this year, because she'd have a great chance of winning in most years.

A couple of observations: Obviously Three Billboards and Lady Bird get a boost here, but it's worth remembering that it was only two years ago that Spotlight went home empty handed from the Globes. Get Out didn't seem to connect with them but I don't think that means it's dead, especially since it's been doing well with the guild awards so far, which are really more important. Because of the Olympics the Oscars aren't actually taking place until March this year. Now that's it's been more or less officially crowned the front-runner, that's a long time for Three Billboards to have to fight off the increasingly loud criticisms it's receiving. I feel like Lady Bird came out in a great position though: the two big wins solidify its place as a contender and keep it in the headlines, but it didn't dominate enough to have a big target placed on it's back. I think that even if Three Billboards falls to the backlash, Frances McDormand is beloved enough that she'll probably be immune to it. Her win seemed to get the biggest reaction of the night by far. Did Natalie Portman and Barbra Streisand just manage to seal Greta Gerwig's Best Director nomination? Interesting that aside from Saoirse Ronan, all of the big critics acting winners lost. Oldman is likely going to cruise from here on out (unless his past does come back to haunt him via the media) and the competition is probably just too strong for Sally Hawkins to come back, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Willem Dafoe or Laurie Metcalf bounce back to win. I wonder if Casey Affleck's absence last night was a decision that came from him or the HFPA? Either way it would probably be better for everyone if that continued for the rest of the season.

And finally, the last of the big critics awards (the National Society of Film Critics): They also posted the vote totals (for the top 3 in each category at least) on their Twitter account, which are kind of fun to see. The two supporting categories were blowouts, while Greta Gerwig won both Screenplay and Director by a single vote. I feel like this was basically the worst possible year for a movie like Dunkirk to be in contention. Given the current political situation there's just no way most voters are going to go for something so far removed from the zeitgeist, while due to it's somewhat experimental structure and tone it doesn't even fit cleanly into the "traditional Oscarbait" box for voters who might lean that way. That being said, it's probably going to clean up at BAFTA (it was a massive hit in the UK), and I don't think Nolan is completely out of the race for Director yet*. *Although that brings up something else I've been thinking of: I know Director and Picture have become increasingly separate in recent years, but if Get Out does win Best Picture while Jordan Peele loses Director -- after the same thing happened with Steve McQueen and Barry Jenkins, and given that there's still never been a black winner for Best Director -- it's probably not going to go over well. And the same is probably true, to a slightly lesser extent, when it comes to Lady Bird and Gerwig.