Climbing the Spitball Wall - An Unsullied's Take on A Song of Ice and Fire - Reading Complete! Now onto Rewatching the Show and Anticipating Season 6!

[ImpinAintEasy]

With the latest news about the sixth book, I am starting to worry that George will never finish the series. So I guess it's a good thing that I still enjoy the show. I can't imagine being a book reader and trying to avoid spoilers from the TV show, which has a larger audience and will be covered by every major entertainment website/magazine, as well as every 'WTF' moment popping up on social media. If TWOW somehow is released this year, I think it is possible to remain unspoiled, but the wait for a 7th book would be close to impossible if you are a fan who likes to discuss the books online. With respect to Shimpy and all of the current and former "Unsullied" members, I think trying to remain unspoiled by the show will be much more difficult. You'd pretty much have to cut yourself off from the fandom, because I can guarantee there will be trolls looking to spoil who sits the iron throne and other main plot points that will likely resemble what George has planned.

[WindyNights]

As GRRM has recently said, there are things happening in the show that have no parallel in the books. We might get spoiled on some major events but we're in AU territory.

[ImpinAintEasy]

As GRRM has recently said, there are things happening in the show that have no parallel in the books. We might get spoiled on some major events but we're in AU territory.

I am speaking in the broadest sense possible. Basically who winds up on the throne/if there is a throne/the outcome of the war against the Others. I still believe those outcomes will be the same in both mediums, but with separate journeys. And if I tried to avoid show spoilers for another 6-7 years in the hope that George will finish the books, it would suck to find out the main storyline ending via some random Facebook/Twitter post or Buzzfeed headline.

[WindyNights]

I suppose but GRRM doesn't really have an outline for his story. Especially one that's set in stone.

He may decide that his ending may need some revision.

[Delta1212]

He doesn't have a set in stone outline for the story, but he does have the fates of the major characters worked out and has for quite a while. He just doesn't know exactly how he's going to get there.

And while everything is obviously subject to change before it actually gets printed, GRRM is one to lay a lot of foreshadowing. Either he's going to continue with what he already has planned and it's going to get spoiled by the show to some extent, or else he's going to chuck it all so that his story is different than the show and, in doing so, jettison literally decades of groundwork that he's been laying towards his particular end.

He doesn't have a set in stone outline for the story, but he does have the fates of the major characters worked out and has for quite a while. He just doesn't know exactly how he's going to get there.

And while everything is obviously subject to change before it actually gets printed, GRRM is one to lay a lot of foreshadowing. Either he's going to continue with what he already has planned and it's going to get spoiled by the show to some extent, or else he's going to chuck it all so that his story is different than the show and, in doing so, jettison literally decades of groundwork that he's been laying towards his particular end.

[Haleth]

Or he'll never finish and we'll have to be satified with the way the show ends.

[WindyNights]

@Delta Indeed but he's liable to change his mind on the fates of certain characters. And he doesn't have the fates of certain characters all planned out. Like the other day he commented on not knowing how a major female character dies just knowing hat she does but he knows now.

@Haleth At this point, the show is an AU that I'm going to treat as its own separate thing.

Edited January 4, 2016 by WindyNights

[stillshimpy]

Sorry about my stalled progress, guys.  Soon I will be back in the groove after meeting a deadline for tomorrow.  

 

Is she even watching season 6? Thought she was done with the show altogether

 

You know, that's something I haven't entirely decided, but I thought I'd wait and see how I felt about it.  I watched a preview...which is something I haven't done since the first three episodes....and I kind of found that because I get to do stuff I've never did before, it's kind of fun.  But I definitely have to buckle down and finish the current book first.  

[Delta1212]

Well, and this would be your first season watching from the other side of things, which I would imagine could be an interesting change of pace. Despite all the "going beyond the books" talk, there's definitely some stuff from the books that are being brought in for at least a couple of storylines still this season, so it'll be an interesting mix of things that got left out of previous seasons that book readers will be familiar with already and stuff from future books that we won't know about yet.

[stillshimpy]

Sorry it took me a few days to get back to the book.  So Stannis has been convinced to go and drum up the Mountain Lords, after Jon convinced him that his assault on the Dreadfort would just be the end of Stannis.  Stannis might have made a joke, but it's too hard to tell and Jon has too many mouths to feed.  

 

Oh and  Aegon Targaryen , son of Rhaegar didn't have his little brains bashed in by The Hound?  After a full minute of "Oh holy shit, really?" and freaking out, I started to wonder if he was going to turn out to be like Anastasia Romanov in this story.  Poor kid died with the rest of her family, but from time-to-time someone would try and pass someone off authentic, some look-alike as one of the last Czar's kids, Anastasia and once Alexi (the crown prince) were impersonated.  No idea why the other kids were less likely to be impersonated.   

 

Also, Richard III's nephews both had their fair share of "smuggled to safety" rumors.   So I stopped freaking out long enough to remember Martin's fondness for borrowing from real history and realized, "Oh...okay.  Who is this kid really going to turn out to be?"  

 

Yeah, I don't know how I feel about that as a story move.  If he's really Aegon, then a LOT of things about Varys make a lot more sense, but I got the sense that this kid was someone of whom Illyrio was actually fond and I can't quite figure out why that would be.  Or where they stashed him.  Although, I do think that if it is true, it's like the King Kong Godzilla Mammoth of "Off-screen deaths don't count in Fantasy and Sci-Fi!"   

 

It would be sort of neat if Martin was borrowing from history in that "Okay, so there are several famous hoaxes in that department....wouldn't it be fun if it wasn't a hoax?"  

 

Season five

As usual I'm at least a little cursed by having seen the show though, because changing the crew of the Shy Maiden to Jorah Mormont and a rowboat is one thing....but deciding not to include a Targaryen heir not-named-Dany seems a strange choice

. 

 

I did like the nice build up, having Jon give this seemingly strange "who would be the heir" talk to Stannis and his up-jumped lords who really ought to know the rules was a nice touch. 

 

I honestly don't know how I feel about that one, but I did get a full minute of "Holy shit!!! That's amazing! And possibly incredible! Oh....oh. Okay, maybe incredible fits best. Damn it."  

Edited January 6, 2016 by stillshimpy

[ImpinAintEasy]

The Golden Company is key, IMO. Think back to who founded it( Bittersteel/Blackfyres). I don't think it's too soon to speculate, since a lot of info was dumped during the chapter where Tyrion and Illyrio were traveling. Tyrion asks Illyrio how he was able to get The Golden Company to break their contract when they are famed for never doing so. Illyrio's response:

"Some contracts are writ in ink, others in blood. I will say no more."

Also he wonders why they would fight for Daenerys, when the company has spent most of it's existence fighting against the Targaryens. Illyrio replies:

"Black or Red, a dragon is still a dragon.

I think he is an impostor, and it's possible he is even Illyrio's son. During that same chapter with Tyrion, he mentions his second wife, who just so happened to have silver/gold hair. Oh, and he makes mention of the male line of Blackfyres being ended when Barristan killed Malys the Monstrous, but nothing about the female line...

[stillshimpy]

Okay, I've also read Davos most recent chapter too, that seems to end with his death sentence and that matches up with the rumor in Feast.  

 

I have to say, other than that poor doomed kid, Wylla (oh joy, engaged to Little Walder, eh?) I found that a primarily tedious chapter.  I'm sick to death of the damned Freys with their light losses thus far.  Also, Martin borrowed a page from J. K. Rowling (which is not an insult, but in this case it isn't a compliment either) by making a lot of the recent additions to the Evil Ranks uglier than sin. 

 

So it was interesting from yet another "Oh cool, neat detail on the world-building"  and apparently Martin feared that he hadn't quite made Sam fat enough, so he decided to roll in Manderly, but that somehow worked for me.  Plus, that moment when he looked at Frey like he was roach he wanted to squash?  

 

Probably the most important sentence in that chapter, I'm guessing.  So it had a nice flourish.  

 

 

Also he wonders why they would fight for Daenerys, when the company has spent most of it's existence fighting against the Targaryens. Illyrio replies:

 

Aha, okay that makes sense, because he needs to have the hair and eyes and throughout the Dunk and Egg stories there's a lot of Red Dragon/Black Dragon stuff and how there would reasonably still be an off-shoot of the Targaryen's that aren't legitimate.  I do wonder if Tyrion's really buying into that though.  

 

For a good minute though, that was probably the best surprise in the book.  

 

Also, either Tyrion saw a giant albino bat (possible) or there's something with serpent wings flying around Volantis that isn't Drogon. 

Edited January 6, 2016 by stillshimpy

[dragonbone]

I'm really curious how the Aegon revelation means that Varys makes more sense.

 

One thing of note for this chapter is that Tyrion is heroic.  He frequently gets the chance to play the hero in the books.  He's an actual fighter... nothing like that happens in the show, he always gets knocked out before the fight or something.

 

Another note. The whole sequence of Tyrion on the boat reminds me a bit of Apocalypse Now.  It has a general feeling of a story about floating through mists toward some doom.

 

And finally, Jon is playing a game of thrones.

[dragonbone]

I found the Davos chapter captivating.  I read that one multiple times.  It has one of the best call to arms in the book,

"I know about the promise … Maester Theomore, tell them! A thousand years before the Conquest, a promise was made, and oaths were sworn in the Wolf's Den before the old gods and the new. When we were sore beset and friendless, hounded from our homes and in peril of our lives, the wolves took us in and nourished us and protected us against our enemies. The city is built upon the land they gave us. In return we swore that we should always be their men. Stark men!"

 

 

I think that is awesome-sauce.  It's also interesting use to have the kids speaking truth to power.  Lyanna Mormont has the another great call to arms, back in the first Jon chapter:

Bear Island knows no king but the King in the North, whose name is STARK

 

 

The world is going to hell, but the kids are alright.

 

[mac123x]

Sorry it took me a few days to get back to the book.  So Stannis has been convinced to go and drum up the Mountain Lords, after Jon convinced him that his assault on the Dreadfort would just be the end of Stannis.  Stannis might have made a joke, but it's too hard to tell and Jon has too many mouths to feed.

 

"The Night's Watch takes no part in the affairs of the Seven Kingdoms..."  except here's a glaring example of Jon doing just that, and you can tell he's struggling with it.  He feeds and clothes Stannis's troops, but he rationalizes that as the right thing to do since Stannis helped against the wildlings, and besides he has more troops and could just take the food anyway.  He's advising Stannis, but he justifies it by telling himself "words are not swords".  Then he gives Stannis guides to show him how to reach the Mountain Clans.  Yeah, Jon, you just torched your oath.  Season 5: 

One of the irritating things about season 5 at the Wall is they exluded all of Jon's oath-breaking and rationalizations that made the assassination more plausible.  Cut all that out, and the conspirators' only motive left was "he let wildlings through the wall, and we're idiots enough that we didn't get stabby before that happened."

 

Oh and  Aegon Targaryen , son of Rhaegar didn't have his little brains bashed in by The Hound?  After a full minute of "Oh holy shit, really?" and freaking out, I started to wonder if he was going to turn out to be like Anastasia Romanov in this story.  Poor kid died with the rest of her family, but from time-to-time someone would try and pass someone off authentic, some look-alike as one of the last Czar's kids, Anastasia and once Alexi (the crown prince) were impersonated.  No idea why the other kids were less likely to be impersonated.  

 

Also, Richard III's nephews both had their fair share of "smuggled to safety" rumors.   So I stopped freaking out long enough to remember Martin's fondness for borrowing from real history and realized, "Oh...okay.  Who is this kid really going to turn out to be?"

 

I got a Lambert Simnel / Perkin Warbeck vibe as soon as I read that chapter.  I share ImpinAintEasy's opinion that Aegon is actually the son of Illyrio Mopatis and Serra Blackfyre.  More than once in the text GRRM made the point that the Blackfyres were "extinguished in the male line."  That's a little too Chekov's Paternity Test for me to ignore.

 

One thing I really disliked about the Sorrows was the second trip under the bridge nonsense.  Haldon:  "We've left the bridge behind.  Rivers only runone way."  Yandry: "Mother Rhoyne runs how she will".  Yeah, bullshit.  It's contrived purely because the plot says so.  This is where an editor should have told GRRM "Yeah, George?  This sounds unnecessarily mystical and stupid.  If you need them to get attacked by Stone Men, just make it a second group that jumps off a building they pass by or something."

[stillshimpy]

I'm really curious how the Aegon revelation means that Varys makes more sense.

 

Well Varys in the tunnel with Arya -- book or show -- doesn't exactly make a metric ton of sense when it is Viserys he's allegedly backing.  Viserys is too easily spotted as the type of problematic Targaryen and -- wow, I can't believe I'm about to type this sentence -- but they didn't marry him to Daenerys, they sold Daenerys to a Dothraki Horse Lord...who was never really going to cross that sea and even if he could?  Armor against grass vests when facing soliders also on horses? Not going to go well.  

 

So using Dany as a power play didn't make a lot of sense and Visery was never really treated as being important.  Varys and Illyrion counting on Dany doesn't make a lot of sense either, because she was untested girl and it wasn't like the Westerosi lords would line up to follow her cause even if she'd produced the Stallion that Mounts the World and all that.  

 

So Varys scheming with Illyrio always played bizarrely because witness Viserys:  Mad as a Hatter and meaner than a Viper, in an impotent, pathetic way.  It just didn't make sense that anyone of any means thought, "He's our man!" and because of the Targ thing where they marry their siblings, it would have made more sense to marry him off to Dany if they thought she was the golden dream of a Targ.  

 

But if Illyrio and Varys were actually planning on installing a pretend Targ (sorry, I just don't think that kid is really Aegon) then a lot of their other moves make more sense.  Giving Dany to a horse lord and sending Viserys off with her....no one in their right mind could have really thought that was going to work out that well, particularly since the entire "Oh and by the way, doesn't seem like Kahls stay in power all that long and by the time Dany has had any kind of kid, she'll be retired to the City of Crones because realistically how long could Drogo keep up the undefeated act?"  As it happened not even long enough for Dany to give birth to one heir, even if he hadn't been dead on arrival.  It was foreseeable as an outcome. 

 

So that is why none of Varys machinations made sense.  If they had their own "Oh ...wait until you see what we have in store for the good people of Westeros!"  then sending Dany off as queen of the Dust and Viserys to irrelevancy makes sense. 

 

ETA:  

 

Lambert Simnel / Perkin Warbeck

 

Yup that was one of the "And then of course, there were all sorts of shenanigans with the Faux-Princes-Not-in-the-Tower." that I was thinking of for Richard III's nephews and if they hadn't been dead...heirs to the throne.  

 

Also, season five

Yes exactly on the "aha, so I get why the men of The Watch are getting pissed.  Stannis men are eating their rations, and depleting their stores....but in the show, they're ticked that Jon broak his Oath, under orders, but not ticked enough to fail to elect him...and then he let people in so they wouldn't die.  TRAITOR!  stab-stab-stab...wuh?

Edited January 6, 2016 by stillshimpy

[Andeleisha]

So my thing with Aegon is that I want him to "win" and end up on the Iron Throne no matter what. 

 

Like look, I'll level with you guys: on a completely irrational, emotional level, I want him to be real because I have been conditioned by Disney etc to love Secret Prince Hero stories. So that part of my bias informs my thinking. 

 

But I don't actually think he is really Aegon, Rhaegar's son. As others have pointed out, there are lots of textual hints to him being a Blackfyre. I'm on board. I actually think it's a fun and clever plot on GRRM's part that will be really interesting to see play out. But I think it would be even MORE fun if that secret...never gets out. He conquers Westeros, becomes a good king, everybody writes songs about his heroic journey, hey maybe he marries Dany and they make more dragons, happy ending, whatever...and then we get a POV chapter from Aegon at the end where he muses something to effect that blood is not what makes a king. (And one day I will write a Happy Endings ASOIAF fanfic to make this happen, hah.) 

 

Even though GRRM is playing with the "secret prince" and "fake prince" tropes, I feel like the story thus far is written in such a way that we are supposed to become somewhat invested in the Griffs' story. The STORY is saying "pay attention to this guy! traditional hero arc coming up!" at the same time GRRM's writing is saying "SOMETHING IS UP HERE. ALSO REMEMBER THAT WESTEROS IS A TERRIBLE PLACE AND THIS WILL PROBABLY END TRAGICALLY." And I just don't have it in me to get excited about something new, only to have those hopes immediately destroyed. I thought that we'd be safe from those kind of "gotchas!" at this point in the narrative, so I'd really like to believe Aegon's purpose is more than a doomed pretender. 

[Which Tyler]

Andeleisha

Agreed, and I feel (almost) the exact same way about R+L=J - Aegon is a Blackfyre, and Jon is a Targ; and that information will be revealed to the audience, but not to the characters, and the Westerosi history books will have Aegon as a Targ, and Jon as Ned's bastard.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Which Tyler

[Andeleisha]

Andeleisha

Agreed, and I feel (almost) the exact same way about R+L=J - Aegon is a Blackfyre, and Jon is a Targ; and that information will be revealed to the audience, but not to the characters, and the Westerosi history books will have Aegon as a Targ, and Jon as Ned's bastard.

Exactly. It would reinforce other themes GRRM has been exploring too: monarchy is not a great system, real life is not like the songs, history is written by the victors. I think it would leave readers feeling a little uncomfortable about the outcome at the end of the series, which is also something I think GRRM wants to do. The story goes on, after all....

[ImpinAintEasy]

I'm not sure GRRM will ever reveal that 'Aegon' is fake within the story. He may leave clues(he already has), but I don't believe the text has to reveal it. Whereas, R+L=J will be revealed in the text, according to George(He says the audience will find out who Jon's mom is).

Oh Shimpy, I forgot to mention that we have now met the "Mummer's Dragon" from the House Of The Undying visions and Quaithe's warning. Which is another reason I think 'Aegon' is a fake.

[WindyNights]

Mummer's Dragon doesn't necessarily mean the fake dragon so much as Varys' dragon. Remember Varys used to be a mummer.

And yeah GRRM foreshadowed Aegon since House of the Undying.

[Dev F]

Oh Shimpy, I forgot to mention that we have now met the "Mummer's Dragon" from the House Of The Undying visions and Quaithe's warning. Which is another reason I think 'Aegon' is a fake.

 

Yep. There's also the random story Septon Maribald tells Brienne and Podrick in A Feast for Crows, about the innkeeper/blacksmith who forges a sign for his inn in the shape of a three-headed black dragon:

 

"When the smith's son was an old man, a bastard son of the fourth Aegon rose up in rebellion against his trueborn brother and took for his sigil a black dragon. These lands belonged to Lord Darry then, and his lordship was fiercely loyal to the king. The sight of the black iron dragon made him wroth, so he cut down the post, hacked the sign into pieces, and cast them into the river. One of the dragon's heads washed up on the Quiet Isle many years later, though by that time it was red with rust."

 

I know the reference would've made more sense of Feast and Dance were one book as originally intended, but it's still pretty clear to me that this is a reference to Aegon, the last of the black dragons, who washed up on another shore in the red guise of the legitimate Targaryens.

 

I didn't put that all together until I started reading other people's online speculation, though, and in the meantime the notion that Aegon might be the real deal filled me with absolute sputtering rage. Like, a feeling of authorial betrayal that nearly made me throw the book across the room and give up on the series for good. The idea that Martin might've deliberately withheld one of the most important characters in the entire series for four entire books just to do some silly soap-opera reveal struck me as a profoundly dishonest cheat.

 

But even if Aegon ends up being a fake, his whole introduction is still a major example of why I don't find a lot of Dance all that satisfying. Whether Young Griff is the secret heir or just a mummer's farce, it's still awfully late in the narrative to be dumping this new complication on us -- a whole major story thread with a new cast of characters and everything. The reason I found A Storm of Swords so thrilling is because it felt like every storyline was coming to a head, propelling us out of the "moving the chess pieces into place" phase of the story and into the "setting the different factions against one another as the story really heats up" phase. And then . . . we got Feast, which was sort of a melancholy interlude -- which, fine, I liked the way it sort of stepped back from the roiling conflicts to look at the devastation they wrought. But then that interlude was followed by Dance, a massive, action-packed epic filled with . . . more freaking setup.

 

By this point in the story, I was just begging for one of the storylines, any of them, to finally catch fire. And instead the narrative is just starting to gather kindling for a new major storyline? No thank you very much.

[ImpinAintEasy]

Mummer's Dragon doesn't necessarily mean the fake dragon so much as Varys' dragon. Remember Varys used to be a mummer.

And yeah GRRM foreshadowed Aegon since House of the Undying.

But what is the lie?

"Glowing like a sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire... mother of dragons, slayer of lies..."

The first is a vision of Stannis with a fake Lightbringer. So we know that this set of visions does contain lies, if the phrase that followed them wasn't enough.

[Terra Nova]

And that's another reason why I thought Shimpy should have Dunk and Egg stories in publishing order: I did it after Dance, but as soon as Aegon was revealed I was dead sure it was all a Perkin Warbeck move.

But someone who read the Mystery Knight will notice how the Fiddler's and Young Griff's masquerade is basically the same (I did it just in the wrong order, so as soon as the Fiddler appeared, I was pointing at him and metaphorically screaming 'Blackfyre!'). That, plus all the infos on the Golden Company, and all the foreshadowing - people have been speculating 'Aegon' would have popped up since Storm was published -, really convinced me Aegon is a Blackfyre, but he himself doesn't know.

 

Plus, and this is all speculaton, other theories state that possibly Serra was Varys' sister, so that he's a Blackfyre too: he shaves his head, his name has the Targ sound, and he was gelded because his king's blood and manly parts were required for some blood magic.

 

So the plan was to use Viserys and Daenerys as moving targets to draw attention, while Aegon was being groomed and educated to be a good, cultivated, martial king. Now that Daenerys has three nukes ready to be used, she is again of some use in their plan. But she and Viserys were just expendable pawns in the beginning.

 

Also, I think it's worth mentioning here another theory, stating that there never was a deal for Drogo to lend some Dothraki to Viserys: Dany's hand was the bribing for the khalasar to go away from Pentos (as hinted by the conversation between Tyrion and Illyrio in the carriage, it's better to buy the khalasars off when they come near a city for plunder, only this time it wasn't with clincking money).

This also means that poor Viserys was cheated, just like he said in his final rambling.

 

Anyway, if Dany and Viserys were the real deal for Varys, it could have made sense for them not to be married to one another, so to have two hands to give to gain some major House support (the familiy trees show that Targ did it more than once, they weren't keen on incest all the time).

 

ETA: in the show, Varys supporting Daenerys makes no sense: apart from what Shimpy already said, there's the glaring issue that show!Varys thoughts are basically: Bob was a bad king, SO we're backing up the uneducated, fugitive Targ half-child. But wait! There's more! Because, while the show immediately makes Varys praise Dany, everyone seems to forget that for sixteen years the heir was supposed to be Viserys. So either Varys&Co somehow knew Viserys would have died at some point, or they just thought he could have been a better king than Bob... and in both cases, they left the Targ heir to their own devices, living as dignified beggars with no education whatsoever.

 

ETA (bis): Unfortunately Davos' chapter has been overshadowed by some Targ, bummer! But it's a chapter I really like, with Wylla stomping the foot upon hearing all the Frey's bullsh*t (well, the entire court was outraged after that last part about Robb being a dog and dying like one). I also liked Davos 'no-nonsense' call to arms.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Terra Nova

[Triskan]

Wylla's speech is intense indeed !

 

But we all look forward to shimpy reaching some other...

speech in a Davos chapter ! ^^

[WindyNights]

But what is the lie?

The first is a vision of Stannis with a fake Lightbringer. So we know that this set of visions does contain lies, if the phrase that followed them wasn't enough.

He's not the dragon that he's pretending to be rather than he's not a dragon at all.

@Dev I understand why you think it's late in the narrative but I don't think it is anymore. We're at the halfway point. I can guarantee you we'll be getting an eight book. And a ninth book is possible.

Also the problem is that AFFC only played set up for one half of the storylines so of course ADWD had to set up the other half.

Edited January 6, 2016 by WindyNights

[Haleth]

Season five  

As usual I'm at least a little cursed by having seen the show though, because changing the crew of the Shy Maiden to Jorah Mormont and a rowboat is one thing....but deciding not to include a Targaryen heir not-named-Dany seems a strange choice.

 

Exactly.

 In the book this is apparently a HUGELY important plotpoint.  But just as the Stoneheart storyline was ignored in the show it says to me that in the end Aegon is irrelevant.  It won't matter if he is real or not.  I suppose leaving him out of the show makes sense since we've been invested in (and waiting for) Dany to make a play for the Iron Throne and to have an upstart appear with a better claim would be poor storytelling.

 Still, I can't help but think Aegon would make a better ruler since he (real or not)  has been groomed to rule since birth.  And I really like all the people around him... Jon Con, Duck, Lemore.  I hate to think that he will turn out to be just a device that makes Dany's journey easier.

 

Incidentally, this was another "wait, what?" moment we've all been waiting for you to get to.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Haleth

[ambi76]

So there he is: Aegon or as he is mostly called in fandom (F)Aegon. Because if that one is Jon's older half-brother then I'm Napoleon.

I don't really want to imagine JonCon's breakdown if/when he finds out he has been duped by Varys and Illyrio all those years.

I don't think GRRM can really pull a convincing duble bluff here.

 

Many readers were/are really pissed off by this twist though. I was mostly "meh/who cares" at first, but when I was confronted with the Blackfyre theory something magical happend. For the first time this got me interested in House Targaryen and especially its offshoots. And if (F)Aegon ends up as Aegon VI after all, then well ... "power resides where people believe it resides" Heh. Another fun possibility for a "twist" would be if there is actually a real Aegon hopping around somewhere but it's not "Young Griff".

 

I was a bit thrown, shimpy, when you shortly considered that Tyrion might mean himself when he spoke of the "birth of a king" because, while our imp is surely quite full of himself I don't think he is that full of himself.

Edited January 6, 2016 by ambi76

[Delta1212]

Storm was the mid-season finale that payed off a bunch of plot threads from the Fall and leaving enough dangling to get you to come back after the break. Feast and Dance are the show returning in the Winter and setting up the new storylines for the second half of the season.

Also, I've got a theory (season 5)

that a fair number of changes in season 5 are the direct result of the writers trying to work their way around a future Aegon-sized hole that they'd cut in the plot.

The way I see it, the story has two major clusters of plot that are more closely inter-related. You have the Ice plot in the North centered around Jon that encompasses the Wall, the Others, the Wildlings, Team Stannis, the Bolton, Winterfell and the Northerners. And you have the Fire plot in the South centered around Dany that encompasses Meereen, Dorne, the Dothraki, Tyrion, Dany's retinue and now Aegon.

If you significantly change one of the plots in either grouping, it's going to have the largest immediate impact on those plots in the same group. So I think Aegon's absence in the future, if indeed he has been fully excised from the story, has rippled backwards and caused the writers to set up things differently in plots that may interact with him based on the fact that that interaction no longer takes place and how they interact with each other may be different as a result.

I don't want to get into speculating about things that might happen in future books before you've finished this one, so I won't lay out my thoughts in any great detail, but I do think a few relatively small changes in Dany's story, a rather obvious-even-at-this-point change in Tyrion's story and the mess that was Dorne can all ultimately be traced back to the decision to cut the Aegon plot.

[mac123x]

Book 5:

I think Varys's and Illyrio's plotting becomes more clear and more confusing after JonCon and crew meet up with the Golden Company, and we get their perspective, so I'll wait until Shimpy gets there to discuss it.  Bottom line is I think they were running multiple schemes.

 

Continuing my rant about the Sorrows:  I don't understand it in context either.  Assuming Yandry was correct and "Mother Rhoyne runs how she will" is true, is that supposed to imply that some divine personification of the river actually wanted them to be attacked by Stone Men, and since they missed the first opportunity, she rerouted the boat to make a second pass?  Why, because she's malicious? 

[ambi76]

Totally agree with your theory Delta1212. Cutting (F)Aegon out of the show has great repercussions on the overall story. So much for him not mattering at all.

 

And yes I get why they cut him from the show but the story is now a totally different one without him.

Edited January 6, 2016 by ambi76

[stillshimpy]

Well and cutting [F]Aegon from the show also has the sad result of underlining, for me, that he can't be that important to the overall plot...unless he'll be introduced later, which remains a possibility because season five

in the show, Varys is just wandering around out there somewhere and they can easily shift that to 'meeting with Illyrio and setting up F-Aegon's introduction

.   Also, I'm aware that there are a lot of contracted seasons to go yet and they have to be saving some stuff for the 6, 7 .8. 

 

There's a bit more too:  One of the things I didn't learn until the books was that Viserys and Dany just sort of wandered around and basically begged for sanctuary.  Now I wouldn't have guessed that although someone did eventually reveal it from an HBO guide thing, that didn't happen until we were watching season five...and it wasn't a malicious spoiling, the person genuinely didn't seem to understand that strictly Unsullied don't look at those things...and in fact, I haven't yet.   I'm sort of looking forward to trying to catch areas in which the guides might go off-book for clues. 

 

But anyway, part of the reason that never crossed my mind was simply that I thought Illyrio had taken custody of them early on, because of the rather daft "we will give Dany's hand in marriage, in order to obtain an army ....that will almost certainly never make it to the shores of the Seven Kingdoms anyway and if they do?  Weapons like crossbows, spears,  and armored knights will greatly reduced their chances) ..." plan and no alternatives within the story.  So for ages I argued pretty vehemently that Varys couldn't really be a Targ supporter because: check out that idiot plan and oh, by the way, Varys did really seem to unleash a hit on Dany making it even more "So....has he heard anything, ever about Viserys?  Because they have a small problem there. Okay, bigger than small." 

 

However, in the books, having that "they weren't rounded up by anyone enacting a power play for kind of a long time" supports the whole "F-Aegon was the real plan all along and if anything, that nonsense with Dany, Viserys and the Army that Wouldn't Do Well in Westeros is a distraction" makes a TON more sense.  

 

Now in the books, I've thought it has been suggested a couple of times that Varys is not necessarily at all who he claims to be: dark stubble on his jaw when he's Ned's jailer being part of that.   Plus, just his "powdered, mincing" persona being fake too.  

 

In the series they've backed Varys backstory to the extent that he had a Wizard in a Box.  

 

 

 

So my thing with Aegon is that I want him to "win" and end up on the Iron Throne no matter what.

 

That would actually fit with a theme that Martin seems to like: That blood is more important than a legitimate name.  Blood might indicate character, House Names are the Shields of the otherwise weak/cruel/greedy (name your seven sins for the Seven Kingdoms) .  Jon Snow's repeated refusal to take on the Stark name, although it is his childhood dream, it conflicts with what actually makes him a Stark: He's already given his word and made an Oath and no matter whose kid he is, or isn't, it is defined in his genetic code that that matters.  

 

And I have more to say, but if I don't walk my dogs like....now....they will stage a furry rebellion and I'll never have another word to type. 

Edited January 6, 2016 by stillshimpy

[Dev F]

@Dev I understand why you think it's late in the narrative but I don't think it is anymore. We're at the halfway point. I can guarantee you we'll be getting an eight book. And a ninth book is possible.

 

Yeah, I agree that this story bloat is a big part of the problem. I suspect that originally Aegon was meant to be just a supporting element of Varys's storyline; there's a way the story could've played him so his reveal is more of "Aha, that's what Varys has been up to all along!" instead of a "Now we're starting a whole new thing you need to keep track of!" But as with the machinations in Dorne, and everything else that was originally supposed to happen "off-screen" and get referenced only as it intersected with the existing characters' storylines, Martin ultimately couldn't resist the urge to dramatize every detail.

 

Well and cutting [F]Aegon from the show also has the sad result of underlining, for me, that he can't be that important to the overall plot...unless he'll be introduced later, which remains a possibility because season five

in the show, Varys is just wandering around out there somewhere and they can easily shift that to 'meeting with Illyrio and setting up F-Aegon's introduction

.   Also, I'm aware that there are a lot of contracted seasons to go yet and they have to be saving some stuff for the 6, 7 .8. 

 

A lot of us assumed, when we heard about the changes the showrunners were making to the Dorne storyline, that (season 5 spoilers)

the reason Trystane was aged up and turned into Doran's heir is because he was going to turn out to be (f)Aegon, being raised and trained in leadership by his (supposed) uncle instead of the Ilyrio's Essos crew. It would've been a pretty clever way to streamline things. Of course, the show ultimately didn't give any hints that this is the direction it's heading -- but, then, there were no hints that the Dorne storyline was headed anywhere at all other than down the toilet, so I suppose it's still possible that it still ends up going this way.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Dev F

[mac123x]

we will give Dany's hand in marriage, in order to obtain an army ....that will almost certainly never make it to the shores of the Seven Kingdoms anyway and if they do?  Weapons like crossbows, spears,  and armored knights will greatly reduced their chances

 

I'm not sure I agree that Illyrio would know that the Dothraki wouldn't fare well in Westeros.  He's from Pentos, and the only fighting against Dothriaki that he knows of was conducted by:

a) Sell-swords

b) Slave armies

c) The 3000 of Qohor.

 

Sell-swords are technologically equivalent to Westerosi knights with armor and horse etc., but they're reliably unreliable.  Slave armies are poorly trained and apt to collapse under attack (e.g., The Yunkish slave army Dany ran into after Astapor).  From Illyrio's perspective, only the highly trained and disciplined Unsullied withstood them; otherwise the Dothraki are unstoppable unless you buy them off.  He may have sincerely believed they would be effective in Westeros.

[nksarmi]

Well I just wasn't paying all that much attention when reading book 5 or I was just so over Dany by the time I got there that when Aegon shows up - I completely buy that he's the real deal.  I fully admit that if he's a fake, I was fooled.  It seems completely plausible to me that when all hell broke loose and the Mountain was busy raping a princess and murdering a little girl that some servants were able to essentially do what Jon did with Mance's son and pull a switch on the prince.  It also seems believable that the boy was raised in secret and they see this as the right time for his return because Robert has died, Tywin is dead, and the 7 Kingdoms is going to hell. Play your cards right and certain noble families will rally to you without a second thought. 

 

I also personally believe that even if he isn't Rhaegar's son - he is a dragon.  I have some more thoughts on that front, but they are best saved for the end of Dance when a few other plot twists have been revealed.  But for now - I will just say that I suppose part of the reason I want him to be real (and why I might not care if he is a Blackfyre) is that even though he was introduced late in the game, he and the people around him win me over pretty quickly (and this is happening while I'm losing patience for Dany's story if that tells you anything).

 

So season five

Shimpy, you want to talk about dedicating type to theories that don't amount to anything?  I was 100% convinced that since they tossed Varys behind Dany that Trystane was going to be the secret Aegon of the show.  I figured that Doran had to be the player he was in the books and Dorne had to be significant if they sent Jamie down there instead of doing his Riverlands plot so surely - surely Trystane is the Aegon of the show and we were still going to get "Fire and Blood" vengeance from Doran, right???  I hold some delusional hope that this could still happen in season six, but not much. And at one point I would have argued that if Aegon wasn't on the show - he must not matter in the books.  But they have excluded so much from the show and GRRM himself says the two stories will only continue to diverge more and more that I don't the think show is any indicator for the books anymore.

[Terra Nova]

However, in the books, having that "they weren't rounded up by anyone enacting a power play for kind of a long time" supports the whole "F-Aegon was the real plan all along and if anything, that nonsense with Dany, Viserys and the Army that Wouldn't Do Well in Westeros is a distraction" makes a TON more sense.  

 

Just compare this neglect with Doran's plan: he made contact with their caretaker and signed a marriage pact with the help of the Tyroshi Archon very early on. Or, looking on the fAegon side, the kid has a caretaker whose name gives already some credency to the claim the boy he's the real deal. And a retinue of highly skilled people in all that a king should know. It's just a glaring constrast with Dany and Viserys.

 

The other main problem in the show is Varys doing nothing to prevent the attempt at poisoning Dany: prior to the Aegon reveal, I always thought that the wine wasn't truly poisoned, or if it was, it wasn't deadly: it would have provided the casus belli for Drogo to invade, since in the conversation with Illyrio in the dungeon it was Varys who was pressing for the plan to move faster, and they clearly looked like Targ supporter. Now, with Aegon, Dany being poisoned wouldn't have been that disastrous, since the smokescreen she already provided for fourteen years wasn't going to be needed much further anyway.

But on the show we have the real deal, and only viable option being staged, in mortal danger and Varys doing nothing to prevent it. Their fifteen-years long masterplan undone by the whim of a King on whose council they're sitting. This of course has never been addressed on screen and I doubt it ever will.

I also doubt we're ever going to see a fAegon on screen: a lot of readers complained about his introduction in the books, they're not going to bring him in two seasons before the end, since the showrunners seem pretty receptive on that kind of critics (see: Brienne's arc in Feast being widely considered boring, so they had to come up with something better, and we all saw how that went).

Edited January 6, 2016 by Terra Nova

[Avaleigh]

Season 5 

 

I stopped being interested in Faegon when he didn't appear on the show. The biggest omissions on the show for me have been Arianne, FAegon, Quentyn, Jeyne Poole, and Moqorro.

 

As far as characters (minor/majorish) who aren't on the show that I would have liked to have seen included (maybe there's still time for one or two of these) My list is as follows:

 

ADWD spoilers:

 

(Jeyne Poole, Genna Lannister, Arianne, Quentyn (We only needed three scenes! This could have been a single episode appearance.), Moqorro, FAegon, Lady Dustin, Pia, Lady Hornwood, Aurane Waters, Big Walder and Little Walder Frey. Even though I feel like all of these characters would have only needed a minimal amount of appearances save maybe Jeyne and Arianne, I feel like including them would have made all the difference to the story. Including a character like Jeyne Poole over Ros was a huge missed opportunity for the show. Same with choosing the Sand Snakes over Arianne. I'm hoping that some version of Moqorro is still going to appear because that's character who knows stuff even more than Melisandre so I'm interested to know what the show would do with a character like that. Aurane Waters would have been fun to have around because of Cersei and Margaery and a character like that could have brought humor to the small council scenes now that Littlefinger is in the Vale for the most part.

[Terra Nova]

@Avaleigh:

 

well, regarding

Moqorro

, there's the cast announcement for season 6:

 Melanie Liburd has been cast as a red priestess

that (season 6 plot snippets)

will help Tyrion and Varys in ruling Meereen. This will possibly lead to some friction between the two of them, Varys not being that happy with the clergy dealing with flames and burning pricks

.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Terra Nova

[ImpinAintEasy]

The only reason I wanted (F)Aegon on the show was because of what it would mean to Varys if he wasn't. As has already been stated, his story now makes zero sense, given both the conversation with Illyrio and the attempted poisoning in season 1. While Dorne was the biggest fail in season 5, I would argue the damage done to Littlefinger and Varys' characters has a longer lasting impact. I'd be fine if we never see Dorne on the show again, but Littlefinger and Varys have been two of the most interesting characters from the start, and I hate to see them come off as looking so foolish. 

[stillshimpy]

I'm not sure I agree that Illyrio would know that the Dothraki wouldn't fare well in Westeros.

 

That's interesting, but I don't really think that's likely.  Illyrio understood the Dothraki well enough to know: Bribe 'em, that works, which also would mean that he has at least some basic understanding of what motivates the Dothraki and power with seats of power aren't it.  But Jorah was actually the character in the show that pointed out the obvious problems with men who aren't wearing armor fighting men that are:  yes, they are far more nimble when not wearing armor, but they are also far more vulnerable, turning them into cannon fodder.  Ultimately also, there's the fact that they haven't taken over the world over there.  The Second Sons, the Golden Company, the Unsullied, the various sundry forces of the lands across the seas are able to keep the Dothraki from wandering too close to where they are.  

 

And Illyrio has been to the Seven Kingdoms, I don't how frequently, but he was able to get there readily enough to have a walk and talk with his co-conspirator.  

 

However, mostly the reason I think that it all starts to gel together in the "Aha, that's why the plan didn't make sense....it wasn't the real plan...it was a bunch of distractions for the "Look! Over here instead of there!" value.  So prepare yourself for the convoluted sentence structure, the plan that didn't make sense, suddenly made sense, in the ways it hadn't made sense. 

 

It's impossible to believe that Varys was really backing Viserys though, because he was such an afterthought, sent to tag along with Dany's husband, with a force that really wasn't likely , or possibly even capable, of crossing the Narrow Sea and waging war.  It just had to seem like that was what they were doing...but as further evidence that that wasn't the plan all along?  Drogo didn't know about it.  That was not why he took Dany as any sort of payment.  When she initially asked, he wasn't into it.  

 

Also, the only way that Aegon is spared from The Hound's bloody spree is if someone was able to anticipate the likelihood that Elia's children would be murdered and have a spare infant around to swap in.  Now I know the story has done a lot with the whole "Milk brothers!" gig, but for real, why would they have a decoy in place for the son but not the daughter?  Anyone who is a parent, why in the world would they simply be sent to safety if they were believed to be in that much danger?  Because Crazypants Firestarter Aerys wanted them as human shields?  Okay....but then...again, if you're going to leave a decoy lying about for a bit of anticipated regicide, just in case, then it would be both kids, not one.   

 

If it was done only at Varys say-so, I guess that would make sense, but it is reliant on a level of planning -- that Elia's daughter would still be recognizable, and they had the foresight to swap in a baby that then had his head bashed in to conceal his identity -- and it all seems to involve a level of foresight that would suggest: Uh...wouldn't it have been easier just to solve the rebellion problem in a different way?  Kill Aerys with some handy poison.  Spirit Elia away.  Have Robert Baratheon kiled.  Hell, the easiest thing to do? Murder Tywin Lannister and really put a wrench in the Rebellion plans.  

 

I know that the "but how could they accomplish that?" question will be raised and the answer is:  I don't know, but if we're willing to pretend Varys and Illyrio really had that level of foresight all the way back to Aegon's infancy, then they presumably were forward thinking All. The. Time and much of that debacle that follows for fifteen years does not make any sense to allow it to continue  

 

Robert was killed easily enough.  So was Jon Arryn.  There would have been a lot of ways to just take out the key players at any point, if they really are so forward-thinking and so good at planning, that they managed to spirit away a baby -- when by the way...babies die at a shocking rate throughout history....so he doesn't even make the most sense as the person to pin all those hopes to.  Viserys would.   He's older, he's past the age of two, which is usually the safe-zone in terms of infant mortality.  

 

It makes more sense that they realized that Viserys was INSANE and then in the "What are we going to do now?" plans, realized "We can reasonably pass this kid off as Aegon.  He's still young enough to be convinced that he really is Aegon (if that's what they've done) and proceed from there."  

 

Or for all I know, they were stashing kids all over the Seven Kingdoms, wondering who would be a likely "we'll back this guy", but mostly I know that Martin likes to borrow from a particular period of history and this one could reasonably hail from actual history (Princes in the Tower).  

 

I haven't even had a chance to talk about the Grey Scale, Grey Plague and Garin's curse, which was all really interesting stuff to read.  

 

Someone was pointing out that Tyrion doesn't get the chance to be the hero in the show, and there's a couple of reasons for that:  First of all: Dinklage would be so difficult to double and for insurance reasons you can't actually have the actors do many of their own stunts.  Secondly, it's one of those areas where suspending disbelief becomes necessary and whereas I appreciate a lot of Martin's inclusion, it is sometimes clear he didn't do a lot of research into what Tryion being a dwarf might mean.  Like a lot of writers, physics probably isn't his forte (and that's fine) so he sometimes pretends mass doesn't matter much.  That was not one of the instances where the "Okay, so this is like pretending a wizard did it"  ...he actually took the trouble to write it in a manner consistent with Tyrion's stature and I appreciated that.  

 

But I really care that much about Tryion, if that's not thoroughly obvious.  I'm slowly coming around to Jon as more and more of his character is revealed.  He's a great strategist, for one thing and that's oddly poignant, because Robb was too and not only does it suggest the Stark in his veins (Lyanna or Ned) but also that Ned taught them both. 

 

I feel like somebody asked me something that I haven't answered yet, but I can't find the question (so it may be the little querying voices in my head...wheeeee) or ...I'm having a spot of post blindness.  Ring a bell with anyone?  Something I was supposed to answer?  If not, we'll just put it down to a blood sugar crash or something. 

[Andeleisha]

Ah, but Shimpy, I submit to you that the history Martin is inspired by is not Perkin Warbeck, but Giannino Baglioni/Jean I of France, the supposed fake/secret son of Louis X. It's a plot point in one of Martin's favorite historical fiction series The Accursed Kings, which he has referred to as "real life Game of Thrones." 

 

(For those who aren't familiar with the story, here is the Wikipedia link for a brief summary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Accursed_Kings, scroll down to the fourth book "The Royal Succession" where this plot starts. )

Edited January 6, 2016 by Andeleisha

[Andeleisha]

Also Shimpy: I completely agree with you that the amount of foresight Varys and Illyrio apparently had beggers belief. My headcanon to justify this is that they didn't have detailed plans all the way back then, but they were pursuing multiple strategies and seeing which ones worked out. 

 

Swap out Aegon with a decoy prince in turbulent times? Why not, seems like a safe enough plan, just like Tyrion tried to send Tommen away from Kings Landing in case the city fell. Maybe they didn't do his sister too because people would recognize a toddler, whereas infants look a lot alike. (Again, headcanon, not backed up by text.) Although man was it lucky that the infants head was destroyed? How could they predict that ahead of time, or did they just plan to rely on people not being able to tell the difference between two babies? Maybe they interfered with the corpse afterward to make sure of it? Maybe they did plan to find a Perkin Warbeck if Aegon didn't work out. 

 

Keep Viserys and Dany alive? Yeah, cuz as you point out, babies can die. Maybe if Aegon had died they would have tried to use Viserys or Dany as a back up plan, even if just to breed more Targs. Still doesn't explain why Varys allowed the poisoning attempt on Dany to happy, but who knows, maybe he was counting on Jorah to stop it. 

 

The theory that would really help to explain WHY Varys and Illyrio are going to so much trouble is if they are indeed part of the Blackfyre line. That would make the motivation to put their king on the throne much more personal, and it would make sense that they were plotting intricate, desperate attempts years in advance. I don't know if I'm bought into this theory based on the textual support thus far, but it would definitely fill in a missing piece for me. 

[Delta1212]

If Aegon is fake, then they didn't really need to plan anything ahead of time. Aegon died as an infant and I have a Targaryen-ish child around the right age? He's secretly Aegon. Boom, done.

They would simply have needed to figure out how to take advantage of events after the fact. They wouldn't have needed to formulate the plan ahead of those events occurring.

[stillshimpy]

Well and the other problem with "royalty almost always has wet nurses" is ....they don't need to have a baby the same age.  They just need to still be lactating, which in some instances means they're own kid could be five years old and no longer nursing.  Also, even if they have a baby of the same age, it doesn't need to be the same gender.   So there's actually an almost ludicrous level of forethought involved with that.  

 

So it's not another infant being fed by the same nurse (and in fact, royalty in the real world wasn't all that fond of having shared nurses, but Martin gets to pretend as much as he likes...concerns about infant mortality actually enter into it again) ...unless they were really thinking ahead in a "So there was this wizard...." kind of way.  

 

Then all they would need access to would be a male infant, of roughly the same age and unless it is eventually revealed that The Mountain was really, really distracted by all the terrible other shit he was doing...he's going to know if he bashed the kid's head against a wall (and every now and then I worry that these sentences are becoming some sort of incredibly grim, permanent digital record of me....thanks Show, and Books for really yielding some concerning stuff from my head).  

 

 

 

If Aegon is fake, then they didn't really need to plan anything ahead of time. Aegon died as an infant and I have a Targaryen-ish child around the right age? He's secretly Aegon. Boom, done.

 

Delta, we're actually discussing why it's obvious that Aegon-the-teen is a fake....because his being real strains credulity too much...and that's in a world where I'm willing to buy that candles can tell the future.   Which...pretty much the only way this can have traction, is if the Citadel Scentsies were getting really involved, kind of a long time ago. 

 

Or at least, that's the line of reasoning I'm pursuing :-)  When I ought to be doing something at least vaguely productive :D 

Edited January 6, 2016 by stillshimpy

[bobbybuilderton]

They need to make some drastic changes before I accept that the show isn't an indicator of where the books are going. The broad points are still being hit and that's part of why I don't watch anymore. A story isn't a set of discrete points to hit but those points are still part of what makes it entertaining the first time. A story you like is still entertaining knowing the ending but that's in a different way. I do not want my first experience of this story tainted by some pisspoor imitation knockoff that still goes the same place but doesn't take a satisfying route there. So until I see some hard evidence the show isn't going to the same overall place I don't want to watch. You can only be told a story for the first time once and to me, seeing the show's certain vs the books first is like being told about a bar fight by someone who saw it as opposed to your drunk uncle who was in it

They need to make some drastic changes before I accept that the show isn't an indicator of where the books are going. The broad points are still being hit and that's part of why I don't watch anymore. A story isn't a set of discrete points to hit but those points are still part of what makes it entertaining the first time. A story you like is still entertaining knowing the ending but that's in a different way. I do not want my first experience of this story tainted by some pisspoor imitation knockoff that still goes the same place but doesn't take a satisfying route there. So until I see some hard evidence the show isn't going to the same overall place I don't want to watch. You can only be told a story for the first time once and to me, seeing the show's certain vs the books first is like being told about a bar fight by someone who saw it as opposed to your drunk uncle who was in it. One will probably beentertaining but largely full of horse shit and make no sense, and the other will probably have more detail and you'll ask them to tell it again because they can do it better than you can.

Edited January 6, 2016 by bobbybuilderton

[WindyNights]

The Aegon shaped hole the show left is being filled in by other characters. Daenerys and Tommen have and will be taking in different aspects of Aegon so he's not really all that irrelevant.

It's kind of like Jon

taking Stannis' role in TWOW in season 6

[mac123x]

Also Shimpy: I completely agree with you that the amount of foresight Varys and Illyrio apparently had beggers belief. My headcanon to justify this is that they didn't have detailed plans all the way back then, but they were pursuing multiple strategies and seeing which ones worked out.

 

That's my take on it too.  Varys seems like too good a player to put all his Aegons in one basket.  Yes, I feel shame for that pun.

 

The theory that would really help to explain WHY Varys and Illyrio are going to so much trouble is if they are indeed part of the Blackfyre line. That would make the motivation to put their king on the throne much more personal, and it would make sense that they were plotting intricate, desperate attempts years in advance. I don't know if I'm bought into this theory based on the textual support thus far, but it would definitely fill in a missing piece for me.

 

Tyrion doesn't buy Illyrio's stated motives for helping Young Griff.  Granted, that's partially his channeling Tywin's contempt for merchant princes (they fight with coin, wars are won with steel, etc.), but I also took that as GRRM telling the reader "Tyrion is suspicious... you should be too."  Its one of the reasons I think Aegon is Illyrio's son; otherwise, Illyrio wouldn't have any more motivation to help a Blackfyre pretender than he would a Targaryen true heir.

 

Delta, we're actually discussing why it's obvious that Aegon-the-teen is a fake....because his being real strains credulity too much...and that's in a world where I'm willing to buy that candles can tell the future.   Which...pretty much the only way this can have traction, is if the Citadel Scentsies were getting really involved, kind of a long time ago.

 

In story, I wonder how they sold this to Jon Connington.  "So I swapped out Aegon with a fake baby and I need you to raise him as your own for a while as Illyrio and I work out how to get him on the throne.  Stop laughing."  Maybe JonCon was so distraught after hearing about Rhaegar's death and subsequent events that he bought it at first, but he's had 15 years or so to think about how implausible Varys's story was.

[nksarmi]

Well and the other problem with "royalty almost always has wet nurses" is ....they don't need to have a baby the same age.  They just need to still be lactating, which in some instances means they're own kid could be five years old and no longer nursing.  Also, even if they have a baby of the same age, it doesn't need to be the same gender.   So there's actually an almost ludicrous level of forethought involved with that.  

 

So it's not another infant being fed by the same nurse (and in fact, royalty in the real world wasn't all that fond of having shared nurses, but Martin gets to pretend as much as he likes...concerns about infant mortality actually enter into it again) ...unless they were really thinking ahead in a "So there was this wizard...." kind of way.  

 

Then all they would need access to would be a male infant, of roughly the same age and unless it is eventually revealed that The Mountain was really, really distracted by all the terrible other shit he was doing...he's going to know if he bashed the kid's head against a wall (and every now and then I worry that these sentences are becoming some sort of incredibly grim, permanent digital record of me....thanks Show, and Books for really yielding some concerning stuff from my head).  

 

 

 

 

Delta, we're actually discussing why it's obvious that Aegon-the-teen is a fake....because his being real strains credulity too much...and that's in a world where I'm willing to buy that candles can tell the future.   Which...pretty much the only way this can have traction, is if the Citadel Scentsies were getting really involved, kind of a long time ago. 

 

Or at least, that's the line of reasoning I'm pursuing :-)  When I ought to be doing something at least vaguely productive :D 

 

When I compared what Jon did with Mance's son, I didn't mean to suggest that they were proactive and had a huge amount of foresight.  I was merely saying that they did a baby swap.  In my head, Varys might not have even been the one responsible and the Mountain himself could have played a role.  I figure there are two very plausible ways the boy survived - as the sacking is taking place and the Mountain is wasting time raping Elia - servants either a) do a baby switch and get the prince to safety or b) just plain get the baby out of the holdfast leaving the Mountain with a Targ unaccounted for. 

 

In the first scenario, some mother is deprived of her child having to sacrifice him to save the prince.  It is doubtful she would do so willingly, but it could still be taken care of in the chaos and confusion of a sacking.  In the second scenario - one I consider very plausible - when the Mountain discovers the baby is missing - he pulls a Theon and grabs any baby, bashes his head in, and delivers the dead body to Tywin.  What would the Mountain care if the kid pops up again later claiming to be the prince?

 

Now the real problem with either of these conjectures is that way the tales came about for Aegon's death.  But given how GRRM likes to play with how history isn't always factual - we could still learn that the tale of Aegon being ripped from Elia's breast and his head bashed against the wall were false.

[Haleth]

I have a number of thoughts about the Targaryens.  If I had time to think about it I could make a cogent argument. 

 

With all the plotting by Varys and Illyrio, there is no way they could have known that Viserys would get himself killed.  Yeah, he was a royal pain in the ass which wouldn't go over well with the Dothraki, but there was no guarantee he'd die, unless the plotters sent some poisoned wine or something to Viserys.  Because setting up the two boys as rivals would not do anyone any good.  

 

The plotters had no way of knowing that Dany would hatch the eggs.  Of course once she did she became more valuable than either Viserys or Aegon.  But trying to control her is like herding cats.  They set everything up for her triumphant return and what does she do?  Sails east to free the slaves on the wrong continent.  If either man had any hair he'd be pulling it out.  

And now Aegon is heading in the wrong direction too.

 It's enough to make a master manipulator bang his head against the desk.

 

Whether or not Aegon is real doesn't matter.  He thinks he's real.  Jon Connington thinks he's real.  Tyrion thinks he might be real.  

The kid's got an army and a fleet and gets a toe hold on Westeros.

 With the support of Dorne and once other disenchanted Westerosi lords start ditching Cersei it won't matter what color dragon he is.  And like I said above, he might be the best hope for bringing back peace... just in time for winter and the real threat.

Varys seems like too good a player to put all his Aegons in one basket.

 

Ha!  Cute!

[stillshimpy]

Is there any reason that you think Ellia died before the children?  I guess I always assumed that she was with them and that he killed her children and then ....etc.  See the grimmest take yet on Inigo Montoya's repetitive monologue.  

 

I assumed that because it would actually be more torturous to her to kill her children first.