S40.E13: The Penultimate Step of War

[skybolt]

Not to beat a dead horse, but I still want to understand how the fire tokens were spent by people at EoE. Does anyone have a screen shot of the updated food menu on EoE? I know that the challenge advantage and immunity idol doubled in price from 1 to 2 fire tokens and 3 to 6, respectively, so did the peanut butter jar also go up from 1 to 2 tokens? If this was the case, then it makes sense that Natalie spent 6 fire tokens on 3 challenge advantages, 6 on the idol for Tyson and 2 for the peanut butter jar (otherwise, it doesn't add up to 14). However, if the peanut butter jar only cost 2 fire tokens, that means 5 total jars were purchased since Tyson returned to the game (6 in total). I assume Parvati bought 2 jars with the 4 tokens she got from the 50/50 advantage. Natalie bought 2 jars (one she shared with Tyson, and likely another one earlier on, since she should've had a total of 16 fire tokens). Tyson was shown to have 0 fire tokens entering the final challenge, even though he received 2 at the coconut challenge. I assume he spent his to buy another peanut butter jar.

Speaking of Parvati, if she had kept her 4 original tokens, she could've bought 3 advantages like Natalie or an immunity idol. I'm also disappointed in her game play that she couldn't even get 1 or 2 tokens from Natalie, even though she helped her strategize and obtain the extortion advantage from camp. All season long I feel like she's tried to play fair and be nice to everyone. I wonder if she knew she had zero chance of winning and wanted to leave Survivor with a better reputation.

That's another thing I hate about EoE. In the real game players are asking for 1 token bribes for their help, while on EoE everyone is fine with Natalie getting a gazillion fire tokens and actually helping her strategize to maximize her count. 

Edited May 12, 2020 by skybolt

[skybolt]

2 hours ago, amazingracefan said:

I thought it was made obvious in the episode to both viewers and her alliance that she didn't want to go.  I just don't see why it would ever be convincing to Nick either however and the whole point of it was to somehow fool him he was safe, I just didn't think that was the way to do it.

I get her game play with buying the rice back at camp, but the way she delivered it at the jury was super confusing. Like I mentioned above, Adam was asking whether or not she's bluffing, while Sophie said I don't know and Parvati and Kim looked confused. I get that they were trying to fool Nick, but they already had the 4-2 vote advantage against him and Michelle. It was just an unnecessary weak move to the jury in general. Maybe she was trying to prove a point to Tony and Sarah that she's willing to fall on her own sword in front of jury. However, back at camp she was still talking strategy to Ben and Sarah about voting out Tony. 

Edited May 12, 2020 by skybolt

[AntFTW]

7 hours ago, amazingracefan said:

I thought it was made obvious in the episode to both viewers and her alliance that she didn't want to go.  I just don't see why it would ever be convincing to Nick either however and the whole point of it was to somehow fool him he was safe, I just didn't think that was the way to do it.

I thought she was overselling it when she offered to buy the rice with her fire tokens. You have to know its bullshit then. No matter what. if you're truly on the bottom and about to be voted out, you scramble. You go to other people who are also on the bottom. Nobody enters this game to roll over, even when it looks like they have no options.

[skybolt]

So now that we're at the end, I wanted everyone's thoughts on which 2 people you want sitting next to you at final tribal for each contestant:

Ben - He has no chance, but I honestly believe he has a bigger chance against Tony and a mediocre returning player than even Michelle and Denise. His hope is that the jury won't vote for a Wendell and that everyone is bitter at Tony. If Natalie returns, he may as well go with Sarah and Tony and hope they split the votes.

Denise - I think her best shot would be against Ben and Michelle (assuming Natalie returns). She beats Ben easily and will be even against Michelle.

Michelle - This is a tough one. I think Ben and the returning player would be ideal, but I'd avoid going up against Sarah, especially if Tony is not there to split the vote. Sarah will take some of the female vote from her, as well as some of the male. Her best shot is to not have Tony or Sarah make final tribal, or she goes up against both of them and hope they split the vote.

Sarah - Avoid Tony at all cost, and perhaps Natalie (if she returns). I think she beats Ben and Denise easily. Her vs. Michelle dynamic is the biggest unknown to me.

Tony - Ben and Denise would be the best option. Even Sarah is beatable. I would avoid a returning player or even Michelle because of her social game.

EoE Returnee - Ben and Denise would be the best option. They can use Denise's laid back / quitting strategy against her.

 

[blackwing]

28 minutes ago, skybolt said:

So now that we're at the end, I wanted everyone's thoughts on which 2 people you want sitting next to you at final tribal for each contestant:

Ben - He has no chance, but I honestly believe he has a bigger chance against Tony and a mediocre returning player than even Michelle and Denise. His hope is that the jury won't vote for a Wendell and that everyone is bitter at Tony. If Natalie returns, he may as well go with Sarah and Tony and hope they split the votes.

Denise - I think her best shot would be against Ben and Michelle (assuming Natalie returns). She beats Ben easily and will be even against Michelle.

Michelle - This is a tough one. I think Ben and the returning player would be ideal, but I'd avoid going up against Sarah, especially if Tony is not there to split the vote. Sarah will take some of the female vote from her, as well as some of the male. Her best shot is to not have Tony or Sarah make final tribal, or she goes up against both of them and hope they split the vote.

Sarah - Avoid Tony at all cost, and perhaps Natalie (if she returns). I think she beats Ben and Denise easily. Her vs. Michelle dynamic is the biggest unknown to me.

Tony - Ben and Denise would be the best option. Even Sarah is beatable. I would avoid a returning player or even Michelle because of her social game.

EoE Returnee - Ben and Denise would be the best option. They can use Denise's laid back / quitting strategy against her.

 

I'd say it's hard to predict at this point because there's still so much that can happen.  For example, if Denise can get together with Michelle and the Edge returnee and rally them to get Tony out, her stock would rise a lot.  I think at this point, Tony would seem to be the favorite but a lot can change.  I don't think Chris Underwood would have won his season had he not put it all on the line and chosen to make fire against Rick Devens.  Prior to him re-entering the game I don't think many would have thought the Edge returnee even had any kind of shot.  It definitely helped that he was up against Gavin, who really didn't seem to do much of anything in the game, and Julie, who truly seemed to have done nothing.

I do agree that unless Ben somehow is the one who gets Tony out, he has no chance.  I am hard pressed to think of a season where the sidekick / coattail rider ended up winning in the final tribal when up against the clear leader.  Useless Woo didn't stand a chance against Tony.  Woo could have taken Kass to the end and he would have won against her, but not against the guy who called the shots.  The same thing happened with Tyson against the useless Monica Culpepper and Gervase.  They loyally stuck with Tyson instead of making a move to get him out, and they were rewarded with it by settling for second and third.

[violet and green]

9 hours ago, blackwing said:

I am hard pressed to think of a season where the sidekick / coattail rider ended up winning in the final tribal when up against the clear leader.  

Natalie White vs Russell Hantz.