Coaches' Strategery (TM Will Ferrell)

[Babalooie]

If you were a coach taking your team into the Battle Rounds, which strategy would you use:

   1.  Put your best singers against the weaker singers on the team in order to come out of the round with all of the stronger singers.

   2.  Put singers of the same level or genre against each other.

   3.  Some other strategy?

 

I would choose option #1, but it doesn't seem like that is what the coaches generally do.

Edited October 11, 2014 by Babalooie

[mercfan3]

Battle rounds I'd put similar singers against each other. 

 

Knockouts I'd pretty much seed them (Best against worst and so forth..) 

[hincandenza]

Sorry up front for the long-winded post.  I think about things a lot, and then kind of verbal diarrhea all over my keyboard. :)

 

Personal involvement:

Quick napkin math says that the battle and knockout rounds are likely about 2 hours total for each pair of singers from the coach at minimum, plus the taping of the shows themselves of course.  This is the bare minimum time the coach will spend with each singer in the first battle round. The best coaches are presumably doing additional work on top of this, such as in person or remote training/advice, keeping tabs on them via email, having someone collect material such as additional youtube videos, performance history, skills, etc.  I got the impression people like Blake among others are far more hands-on like this, whereas I always got the impression that for example Adam or Christina were more clock-in/clock-out in the early rounds, until they found their "chosen ones" and would get more involved hands-on. 

 

Me, I'd be a highly hands-on coach; for example, given the $8-12M I'd be paid per season, and as a wealthy and famous artist, just out of personal pride I'd want all 12 of my initial blind audition choices taking voice lessons from the day they get home from the blinds. The blinds were taped in early June, not sure about the battles and playoffs but we'll say they occur a month or two later or so?  So at two lessons a week for a month, for 12 people in their hometowns, hiring each of them a very good vocal coach ($100/hour?) would cost me under $10,000 total.  This might seem like a lot to you and I to spend on singing lessons for near-strangers I barely know and most of whom I won't see again... but these coaches are already stupidly rich and being paid about $10M per season on average, so $10K is a drop in the bucket to make myself look even better as the coach who had 12 of the very best battle round singers.  I'm pretty sure Adam spends more than $10K a month on t-shirts! :) 

 

I'd also keep in weekly contact with them, encouraging them and suggesting areas that I thought they should focus on.  In the meantime, I'd have someone gathering for me all sorts of information about each contestant, not only my own: their personal background, their musical preferences, their career history and performance experience, formal training they've received, areas of weakness, instruments they play and how well, any albums/EPs/songs they've released along with youtube videos- the whole nine yards.  The singers on my team, and even on the other teams, would be very forthcoming in offering up this information to their coach, after all!  If I spent an hour a day reviewing the "research", I'd easily be able to keep up some communication, and get a pretty good sense of each of these artists.

 

As I mentioned, maybe some of the coaches do some/all of these things already!  It's very possible that people we think from the aired auditions and battles should have been near-untouchable were actually quite flawed due to what the coach found out during or before the battles, or in working with them, to get a more complete picture.  If I were a coach, I'd be less concerned with my vague memory of their one blind audition than getting a complete sense of them via existing performance materials.

 

 

Battle Round Pairing Strategy:

I'd definitely do some variation of the #1 and #2 you mention in your original post.  If I've put in any meaningful time to get to know my artists better than just what I heard/saw in the blind auditions, it's unrealistic I won't have developed 2-4 early favorites, along with a few who show real promise or improvement but I'm still on the fence about, along with a couple of people I would now bet my career on knowing they aren't going to make it- they were probably my later "cannon fodder" picks anyway. 

 

Even though I spent time and energy making my artists a little better before the battles started, my goal would be to increase the likelihood that of my 6 battle round duets, I'd have 6 open-and-shut cases, and at least two people on my team I was already very excited about, and fairly convinced would go far.

 

a) Pair up my few early favorites with the not-gonna-happens, preferably by style (soul v. soul, pop v. pop, country v. country)

b) Spend 5-10 minutes pairing up the remaining people by commonality, most importantly by range, then genre.  I'm quietly implying "I don't think either of you are particularly good or worth much deliberation. So, here's the chance for one of you to surprise me and get to stick around a little longer and maybe prove me wrong". 

 

Sometimes this will lead to surprises: your early favorite bombs out, or two mediocrities paired from b) above totally blow you away and you realize you now want to keep both of them and can't.  Still, with the advent of the steal, worrying too much about pairings beyond the two or three early favorites is less important to get just right; heck, last year's winner Josh Kaufmann was stolen during the battles, and Tess Boyer was picked by Usher, then stolen by Blake and then Shakira during the two battle rounds.

 

The only tricky part is to find a way to balance all six of your battle rounds or your knockout rounds such that you don't have one person being forced to sing in not only a style but a range they physically can't achieve.  The coaches seemed especially guilty of this in early seasons, where you'd have some diva soprano belter with a 4 octave range doing a coach-selected song in her wheelhouse, paired with some WGWG baritone folk singer type who is forced to falsetto the entire song and then is promptly discarded.  I think it was just last season that they introduced the new method where the coaches provide a list of three songs, and then the two singers would pick between them; it seems to have made the singers more invested in the song, and avoid songs that only fit one singer's capabilities.  I'm a big fan of that show change for the reasons I describe.

 

 

Steals Strategy:

I'm not sure what the steal count is this season, but I'm assuming this: we're going 12 each per team into the battles, so 6 will come out for each coach, and I'm assuming two steals each as well (8 total per team after the battles), then those 8 become 4 after the Battle Round 2, plus one steal to give us a top 20, 5 per team, with the top 3 coach selections per team advancing to the first "live show".

 

For the battles, I'd adopt a modified solution to the Secretary Problem which describes how to solve the problem of picking the best from a pool of applicants who you interview in no particular order; when taping the battle rounds, you never know how someone will do, or whether you'll use up your steals early and then someone phenomenal will come along.  The short version of the solution is that it approaches 37%: you let 37% of your applicants go by, then the first candidate you find from that point on who is as good or better than anyone you've seen, you pick.  Since I'll l see 18 battle round losers outside of my own team, I'll not hit my button for the first ~1/3, or 6 (basically night 1) and then hit my button for the very first non-selected person after that who is as good as any battle round loser I've seen to that point, regardless of coach, singer, style, or genre. 

 

I say modified Secretary Problem for two reasons.  First, unlike the classic problem, I have actual information up front: I've heard these people sing before, and I've done some research.  Second, I have two steals to use, not one.  Given that, I would have a short list of the 1-2 artists each on the other teams that I really want.  The first time any one of those does really well yet isn't chosen, or if someone unexpected so completely amazes me I'm blown away that first night, I'll also slap my button no matter when their battle round occurs. 

 

What I won't do is feel pity for someone losing out and looking sad; this is one coach who would have a heart of stone for sob stories and pity cases. The steal is a chance to get someone (like, oh, Josh Kaufmann) that another coach inexplicably discarded, not to temporarily extend someone's delusion about their prospects as a professional top-tier vocalist. :)

[DownTheShore]

I would probably put stronger vs. weaker just to weed them out easily and make sure that I kept the ones that I thought had the best chance.  Having said that, I have to give credit to the coaches who pair strong singers against one another and make them really prove that they want it more.

[ToxicUnicorn]

I know it makes sense at some level to pair strong/weak singer together to make the decision easy, but the advent of the steal makes me want to see that strategy much less. 

 

While I didn't particularly understand it from a strategic view, the battle between Matthew Schuler and Will Champlin last season is my favorite over all the seasons.  There is a case to be made that one strong singer will elevate the other's performance, and you get really good tv as a result.  And it was fine, both singers made it pretty far.

 

There's a line to be drawn between giving artists (and yourself) a competitive edge versus producing great performances/tv.  I don't know where that line is, and I'm sure it varies from coach to coach.

 

As a viewer, I tend to like the idea of putting singers in the same genre against each other in the knockouts.  I don't like it when one singer gets a song that is clearly in the other's wheelhouse.  (Where did the word wheelhouse come from, by the way?)  I agree that giving the pair a list of 3 songs and letting them choose is a much better way to do it.

[Babalooie]

Thoughtful answers, guys.

[Kcat1971]

Of course this question presumes that the Coaches are actually the ones making this decision, while I highly suspect it is a production decision.

[MangoFed]

Of course this question presumes that the Coaches are actually the ones making this decision, while I highly suspect it is a production decision.

It's probably a bit of both.

[Babalooie]

Kcat, you are right.  There is a lot of monkeying with the results on  most, if not all, of these competitions.  I have seen the fine print on the AI contract, which states that the producers have the right to make the final decision on the outcome of the finale.

[Noreaster]

I think that, up until last season (and not including season 1 which I didn't watch), Adam, Blake, and Cee Lo followed strategy #1 of pairing strong vs. weak.  I think Christina followed strategy #2, pitting similar artists against each other.  She also came up with more inspired song choices.  I liked her battles the best.  

 

Last season, I felt that all the coaches (actually not sure about Shakira) followed strategy #2.  I remember thinking that the song choices were way too on point or really boring.  Seemed different from previous seasons to me.  Like maybe the coaches weren't as involved and were just deferring to the producers.  

 

I have no idea how much the coaches are involved now, but in the earlier seasons, they were at least somewhat active in the pairing/song decisions based on Carson Daly's EW blogs in season 2. 

 

From http://popwatch.ew.com/2012/03/13/carson-daly-voice-blog-battle-rounds-2/:

Here’s another great nugget for you EW readers: I think Christina probably spends the most time of all the coaches agonizing over her song choices. She is all in, and I think she does a really good job. I love when she picks songs like “Heart Shaped Box” because you wouldn’t expect her to. Lindsey Pavao and Lee Koch. Lindsey was one of the early blind auditions, one of the buzzy performances that charted on iTunes, and she had a look everyone was sort of talking about. Lee was a baker, and he got on Team Christina late in the blind auditions. It was definitely an interesting matchup. It was really one of the more creative battles of the night. But I can’t believe Blake’s never heard of “Heart Shaped Box.” Honestly, I’m going to make him a big fat ’90s CD mixtape. Honestly, I think he was out hunting from 1991 to 1995, during the whole grunge movement.

 

From http://popwatch.ew.com/2012/03/20/carson-daly-voice-blog-battle-rounds-3/:

Pip and Nathan Parrett are really close friends, and Adam, of all of our coaches, specifically tells the producers of the show that he doesn’t want to know any personal information about his artists before he pairs them up. He likes to decide his battle pairings based only on the vocals of the blind auditions, so that’s definitely an interesting tactic for him. But even though he didn’t know any of the personal details about the artists, he ended up picking Nathan and Pip to go up against each other.

Edited October 9, 2014 by Noreaster

[ToxicUnicorn]

I think Christina followed strategy #2, pitting similar artists against each other.  She also came up with more inspired song choices.  I liked her battles the best. 

Last season, I felt that all the coaches (actually not sure about Shakira) followed strategy #2.

 

I agree with all of this.  Last season was a marked difference and it kept me much more interested in the battle rounds.

 

ETA:  Also, I love this thread title.

Edited October 11, 2014 by ToxicUnicorn

[Babalooie]

Well, it certainly seemed that the coaches/producers chose strategy #2 for the knockout rounds.  I still say that's not the way to have the best chance of keeping your best people.

[mercfan3]

Some of them do and some of them don't. I think Gwen sort of seeds her contestants, for example. I also think Blake does as well. Adam..I don't usually know what he's thinking. Pharrell is just intent on taking the weakest team possible to the playoffs. Amazing how he managed that. 

[Noreaster]

For the knockouts, my guess is the coaches have each picked out the four they want in the lives, then pitting them against the remaining four contestants. So partly strong vs. weak, but a lot of personal preference coming into play. To me, Blake's and Adam's choices seem to be in line with their tastes in the past.  While Gwen and Pharrell seem to have had their minds made up prior to the performances (especially Pharrell given his justifications for his choices).    

 

I miss the earlier seasons before the knockout steal was introduced.  I remember the whole team would gather around and the coaches would announce the pairings one by one.  Then each pairing would perform.  It was funny to see the "oh shit" reactions of the people paired up against the most promising contestants. For example, in season 4, seeing the contestants chosen to go up against Judith Hill, Sarah Simmons, etc.  I think coaches had more control then. The pairing decisions were made at the last minute so they were probably based somewhat on how well the contestants were doing in rehearsals.  No major surprises with the decisions.  

 

In this season, it seems more risky. Pairing decisions were made even before the rehearsals with the coaches and Taylor Swift.  A lot can change.  If the coaches are adamant about staying with their original favorites, then some of the choices can seem questionable.  

Edited October 29, 2014 by Noreaster

[mercfan3]

Yea, I think it's evident who the coaches likely want in the top 12 (Adam: Matt, Chris, and now probably Taylor P., Gwen: Anita, Bryana, Taylor James Williams, Pharrell: Elyjuh and who cares about anyone else, Blake: James Dean Carter and who cares about anyone else..maybe he cares a little bit about Reagan. Maybe.) And that's who they pair up.

 

What I question is the steals. The steals haven't been too great this season, other than Adam smartly taking the likely winner. But Sugar? Was that to eliminate competition for Elyjuh, or does Pharrell actually like her? Ricky? Was that to eliminate competition or does Gwen know he actually has a lot of fans and has a shot at breaking up her preferred top 3? I'm interested in seeing who Blake stole..not that it matters, he's got his chosen one. 

 

At this point, that's what I'd be doing too. I'd likely have my three favorites. I'd make sure they win..and unless someone really good comes along (Taylor P.) I would be stealing fodder. 

Edited October 31, 2014 by mercfan3

[Moonbow]

I think that if contestants continue to choose Adam in the blinds, there must be good reasons. I doubt they're any less informed than viewers on the coaches' history on the show. They all likely did their research. 

I actually do think the average contestant is less informed about the coaches' history than the average viewer/fan of the show. Many of these people are working musicians who rarely or never watch The Voice (and they've said as much in interviews). I think a lot of them choose Adam because his music style is the closest to pop/rock ... and some of them are blinded by his promises and enthusiasm.

Edited November 21, 2014 by Moonbow

[Noreaster]

You could be right. But the contestants are spending something like 3 weeks in LA prepping for the blinds and filming background. Plenty of time to do research on things like Adam historically gets a lot of 4-chair turns, the types of contestants he has advanced with, his coaching style. Also there are family, friends, fellow contestants with info. It's hard for me to believe that they're not doing basic research for something that's not an insignificant commitment.

Of course, I prefer to think that just because someone might prefer how Adam thinks or works over other coaches, that doesn't make that person stupid or blinded. Just personal preference.

[mercfan3]

Adam's song choices are hit or miss..and I can see how that can be appealing to contestants because they do get pushed out of their comfort zone. It's just when he misses..it's a huge miss. But that's not why I question people who consistently pick him. 

 

And I don't think it's stupid if they prefer the way Adam thinks and want to be coached by them because of it. That's fine. I think it's dumb though, if your goal is to get as far in this competition as possible, to pick the coach who historically gets the most four chair turns. Seriously, the guy gets so much talent that last season he let the winner go. And you couldn't even fault him for the decision because it was certainly a valid opinion that Delvin beat Josh. 

 

And I think it's even dumber to pick him for a steal. Because he's already bonded with his other talent..and you know his talent is quite good. 

 

BTW: I don't think these artists do research. According to most that audition (Matthew Schuler, Jacquie Lee, Michelle Chamuel, Bria Kelly all have said this..) The producers tell them to go with their gut. That's why you get so many "I'm thinking I'm going to go with...X" and then they go with someone else. I don't think people are star struck, but I do think Adam's self deprecation, humor and eagerness convinces people to go with him over some of the others. He's also got a few tactics that work pretty well. (Telling people where he can help them, for one.) Adam is by far the best salesman on the show. 

Edited November 22, 2014 by mercfan3

[Noreaster]

Just because the producers tell you to go with your gut (and yes, I also have read that this is what contestants are told to do in the blinds), it doesn't mean that you don't try to prepare and find out as much information about the show ahead of time. I obviously don't know for sure and am projecting what I would do myself. But it just seems like common sense. The information is readily available to anyone who wants to do the research. It's called making an informed decision, even when the contestants end up going with their gut on stage.

 

I actually think too much is made of Adam and his 4-chair turns sometimes. It's not really that bad of an idea for a 4-chair turn to pick Adam. He advances a lot of them to lives. The problem is his team ends up being stacked so he can't help but drop some of them. But let's look at some of the other coaches. Do 4-chair turns fare better on those teams? Not really.

 

This is how many 4-chair turns the coaches advanced to lives, based on wikipedia:

 

Season 3

Adam: 1 out of 2 (Bryan Keith, Nicole Nelson)

Blake: 1 out of 1 (Cassadee Pope)

Christina: 1 out of 1 (Adriana Louise)

Cee Lo: 0 out of 1 (Avery Wilson)

 

Season 4

Adam: 2 out of 4 (Judith Hill, Sarah Simmons, Sasha Allen, Midas Whale)

Blake: 1 out of 2 (Holly Tucker, The Morgan Twins)
Shakira: 0 out of 1 (Monique Abbadie)
Usher: 0 out of 1 (Ryan Innes)

 

Season 5

Adam: 2 out of 4 (James Wolpert, Tessanne Chin, James Irwin, Ashley Dubose) 

Blake: 0 out of 1 (Holly Henry)
Christina: 1 out of 1 (Matthew Schuler)
Cee Lo: 0 out of 0

 

Season 6 (note that first live show this season was top 12, not the playoffs)

Adam: 2 out of 4 (Christina Grimmie, Delvin Choice, Josh Kaufman, Cary Laine) 

Blake: 2 out of 4 (Sisaundra Lewis, Audra McLaughlin, Ryan Whyte Maloney, Kaleigh Glanton)
Shakira: 0 out of 1 (Clarissa Serna)
Usher: 1 out of 2 (Bria Kelly, Biff Gore)

 

Season 7

Adam: 3 out of 6 (Damien Lawson, Chris Jamison, Mia Pfirrman, Joe Kirk, Jonathan Wyndham, Beth Spangler) 

Blake: 1 out of 1 (James David Carter)
Gwen: 1 out of 1 (Anita Antoinette)
Pharrell: 1 out of 4 (Luke Wade, Taylor Phelan, Blessing Offor, Maiya Sykes)

Edited November 22, 2014 by Noreaster

[Noreaster]

Adam also does a better job than most with regard to steals.  Here is that data, based on wikipedia:

 

Steals advanced by coach at least one round

 

Season 3 (battle round steals only)
Adam: 2 out of 2 (Amanda Brown, Joselyn Rivera)
Blake: 0 out of 2
Christina: 0 out of 2
Cee Lo: 0 out of 2

 

Season 4 (battle round steals only)
Adam: 1 out of 2 (Caroline Glaser)
Blake: 0 out of 2
Shakira: 2 out of 2 (Sasha Allen, Karina Iglesias)
Usher: 1 out of 2 (Cathia)

 

Season 5 (battle and knockout steals)
Adam: 1 out of 3 (Will Champlin advanced in playoffs)
Blake: 1 out of 2 (Nic Hawk advanced in knockout, *Did not include Cole Vosbury who was voted in by public next round and did not need coach save)
Christina: 0 out of 3
Cee Lo: 0 out of 3

 

Season 6 (battle #1 and battle #2 steals)
Adam: 1 out of 3 (Jake Barker advanced in battle #2)
Blake: 0 out of 3
Shakira: 2 out of 3 (Patrick Thomas advanced in battle #2, Tess Boyer advanced in playoffs)
Usher: 1 out of 3 (Josh Kaufman advanced in playoffs)

 

Season 7 (battle and knockout steals)
Adam: 0 out of 3
Blake: 1 out of 2 (Jessie Pitts advanced in knockout, *Did not include Craig Wayne Boyd who was voted in next round and did not need coach save)
Gwen: 0 out of 3
Pharrell: 2 out of 3 (Jean Kelley advanced in knockout, Sugar Joans advanced in playoffs)

[ToxicUnicorn]

Thanks for all that work, Noreaster.

 

Adam still wins the booby prize, for me, for advancing James Wolpert over Will Champlin.  Usher has made a couple of bad decisions: I really liked Ryan Innes and Biff Gore; however, Pharrell beats Usher hands down in the crazy department for not taking Taylor Phelan because he is obsessed with Sugar.

 

Christina should never have pit Will against Matthew - but I understood that choice.  I don't have any other criticisms for Christina, Blake, Shakira, or Gwen.

[Noreaster]

I thought the Will Champlin/James Wolpert battle was pretty even. (And Blake and Cee Lo also picked James as the winner of that battle.) The only issue that I've really had with Adam's decisions over the seasons is the James/Juhi knockout. James clearly underperformed.  I wasn't crazy about Juhi myself and understood Adam's reasoning, but this was the one time I felt he went against the spirit of the competition. (Interestingly enough though, Christina also picked James over Juhi due to potential.) It ended up working out, and James went far and eventually became one of my favorites. But that would be my biggest complaint with Adam.

 

In general, I don't really get too worked up about coach decisions.  Most things are subjective. For this season, I wish that Blake and Pharrell made different decisions about James David Carter and Taylor Phelan respectively.

Edited November 22, 2014 by Noreaster

[mercfan3]

Well, I think when it comes to four chair turns, it just means you are likely more talented. 3 chair turns are also more of the talented contestants. (And sometimes, those contestants audition when a coach's team is filled up.) 

 

And I think, unless you are up against his favorite (which is true for any coach. There's no way any contestant was going to beat Michelle or Bria from Team Usher, or Jacquie from Team Christina, or Danielle from team Blake - in fact, Blake cleared out his talent to make sure she got an easy path..) Adam is one of the most fair coaches. Because, and I've said this before, I think he likes going into the top 12 with the best singers. 

 

My point is simply...why pick what you know is going to be the strongest team? This isn't a knock on Adam in anyway. In fact, good for him for convincing these people to choose him. But, IMO, without question..Taylor P. gets voted in by the audience in the top 12 on Team Gwen and Team Blake. I happen to prefer Anita and Taylor three names to Adam's Damien and Matt..but I know darn well Taylor P. would have beaten one of them. Reagan and Craig..Taylor P. probably beats both. There's just a lack of strategy on the contestants part to continuously pick the coach with the strongest team. And I'm not sure if it's because contestants think they are better than what they actually are, or because Adam puts up such a good sales pitch. But if their goal is to get as far as possible (and I'd assume that's a huge goal..) then choosing the coach with the strongest team seems..not so smart. 

 

The only probably I ever have with Adam is his song choice. Every once in a while, I think he picks his favorite over the more deserving contestant, but everyone does except Shakira. And that's part of the show too..if a coach thinks they can work better with one person over another, why wouldn't they choose that person? But song choice..sooner or later he gets all of his contestants with a bad one. And I think it's more noticeable with Adam, because when he picks right..he really picks right. (Take Me To Church for instance..) And even then, I'd much rather watch Adam's contestants than Blake. In fact, Reagan has the potential to be a really cool contestant, but I'm nervous she's going to get really boring safe songs the entire show and not improve at all. 

[ToxicUnicorn]

My point is simply...why pick what you know is going to be the strongest team?

Do we know if the contestants know who is getting chosen for whose team?  If they are kept in the dark, maybe they keep figuring that this is the season everyone gets smart and chooses someone else, so they choose Adam.  I'm only half-kidding.

 

And I think, unless you are up against his favorite (which is true for any coach. There's no way any contestant was going to beat Michelle or Bria from Team Usher, or Jacquie from Team Christina, or Danielle from team Blake - in fact, Blake cleared out his talent to make sure she got an easy path..)

I honestly thought Matthew Schuler was going to win everything that season, and Christina should have moved heaven and earth to get him to the end.  I still think he has much more talent and potential than Jacquie Lee.

[mercfan3]

I think Jacquie has more potential, but Matthew was definitely better on the show. He is an incredible all around package.

 

Honestly, I thought Christina could have had first and second place that season. (I thought she was going to. I thought Matt would finish first, and Jacquie second.) 

[Noreaster]

Do we know if the contestants know who is getting chosen for whose team?  If they are kept in the dark, maybe they keep figuring that this is the season everyone gets smart and chooses someone else, so they choose Adam.  I'm only half-kidding.

I don't know if the contestants know. But I don't think it really matters. 

 

I obviously enjoy talking about strategy a lot and seeing how the coaches fill their teams and decide who to advance. But we viewers probably overthink this too much. Contestants likely take a lot of things into account, like genre, performance style, personality, etc. "Fit" is so important. Coaches typically advance those with whom they have the most connection. 

 

It's really not a bad idea to go with Adam when you're a 4-chair turn (or even a 3-chair turn). It's not as if he has fewer spots on his team or he limits the number of "strong" (whatever that means since it's subjective) contestants he will advance. I would argue that 2-chair turns might want to think twice about going with Adam though.  

 

And it's not as if 4-chair turns necessarily have better odds by picking the other coaches. Just look at the data in my earlier post.  

[mercfan3]

But you can't really put data on talent. Not only that, but Adam gets most of the four chair turns, so it's hard to really make data on that anyway. 

 

Not that it matters. I think Adam has a tendency to advance the best singers - who tend to be the four chair turns - anyway. And I think he'd do that if it was a steal too. 

 

But that's besides the point..if you aren't the elite of the competition..and you have an option for the steal..why would you go with Adam? Strategically, you know he's most likely to get the majority of the best contestants, and he's more likely to advance the best contestants. You can't tell me that by the time the steals come around, people don't know who the best contestants are. So why put yourself at a disadvantage? 

 

now, I agree that most of the time it's more about fit and they pick who they feel would be the best coach for them..and a lot of time thats guts (and strategy goes right out the window..) but it just amazes me that contestants continue to pick him knowing what they do. 

[Noreaster]

The point is there is no disadvantage by picking Adam in the blinds or as a steal.  The data speaks for itself.

[mercfan3]

Conitnuing fro the playoffs thread.

 

Of course there is a disadvantage of choosing Adam. We lose early favorites because half of them are on Team Adam and only a set number of people can make it through. 

 

You can't just look at numbers. You have to look at individual cases. For example, Taylor Phelan. Any doubt he beats Reagan/Craig/ and at least one of Anita/TJW? Okay, I guess there is some doubt..but it's certainly better odds then Adam's team. Caroline Glazer? She could have chosen Usher..and really..the only guarantee for the top 12 was Michelle? (Meanwhile, Adam had Amber, Sasha and Judith.) 

 

So yes, he does take the most four chair turns. He gets the most four chair turns..so duh. I'm not saying he picks people incorrectly. I'm saying, strategically, it does not make sense to join the team you know is stacked. Adam's team is always stacked. How is that even a question? 

 

And my point, even further, is that...okay..I can almost excuse it in the blinds. (Almost, at this point, people ought to know Adam's teams get stacked. They always are stacked. ) But even if you knew very little of the show. By the time steals come into play...you KNOW Adam's team is stacked. So why make it difficult on yourself? Yes, Adam isn't biased against his steals. (Amanada, for instance..) But that's besides the point. The point is, the competition is harder on Adam's team. 

[xfuse]

 

You can't just look at numbers. You have to look at individual cases. For example, Taylor Phelan. Any doubt he beats Reagan/Craig/ and at least one of Anita/TJW?

You can look at the numbers. While Adam does get more four chair turns he has advanced them less than fifty percent (10/21) while Blake is over fifty (5/9). I do agree that it doesn't make sense to choose Adam when the steal is in play because his team is generally stacked. I don't think that it's all the coaches fault that the steals don't advance. In the last couple of cycles Blake has stolen singers that totally done something different in the next round.

 

Don't think that Taylor Phelan had a chance on either Blake's or Gwen's team. There is something off-putting about him.

[NewRadical]

Don't think that Taylor Phelan had a chance on either Blake's or Gwen's team. There is something off-putting about him.

I have to disagree with this. Had Taylor chosen Blake, then that would have been instead of Craig. I think Blake would have been annoyed bc he was clearly waiting for Craig but I think taylor would have made it into the top twelve with votes. Or had a chance to beat out Jean Kelly for the wildcard.

Gwen has/had two strong ppl in her top five. If Taylor had been in there, it would have been three. Despite her crush on Ryan, I think it would be crazy not to pick Taylor who would have been shown to be far more successful than Bryanna and Ryan. Maybe that's my opinion. But when Gwen picked Ryan it wasn't really an upset as I didn't find any of her three that great. And this assumes Taylor couldn't have beat out Anjta which IMO I would be surprised if Taylor and Anita didn't receive votes in the same ballpark during the top 20

[Noreaster]

Of course there is a disadvantage of choosing Adam. We lose early favorites because half of them are on Team Adam and only a set number of people can make it through. 

 

You can't just look at numbers. You have to look at individual cases. 

Okay, I guess the numbers are not as clear as I thought. Let me explain how I look at it.  

 

The data shows that for 4-chair turns since season 3, Adam has advanced 10/20 to the lives and the rest of the coaches combined have advanced 10/22.  (If you want to strip out Blake, he has advanced 5/9.)  The odds are roughly the same whether a contestant chooses Adam or not. You can argue individual cases if you want, but the overall trend seems clear and the sample size is large enough where we can draw such conclusions. Historically, there has been no disadvantage in choosing Adam.

 

Now, I do understand your thought process. Logically, it would seem that the "stronger" contestants (aka 4-chair turns) should have a better shot on less-stacked teams. But that's not how it has played out. For some reason, those other coaches only advanced half of their 4-chair turns, the same rate as Adam.   

 

Why is that?  I'm repeating my earlier post, but my theory is "fit" is the most important thing. Some of the coaches care about factors other than the qualities that caused all 4 chairs to turn.  I'm generalizing, but when we look at the contestants going to lives over the seasons, Blake has gone more with the country folks, Christina with the young singers with big voices, Cee Lo with the more theatrical or "unique" artists, and Adam with the technically-gifted and relatively seasoned contestants. 

 

The Blake-type, the Christina-type, and the Cee Lo-type don't get as many 4-chair turns.  Rather, it's more often the Adam-type that gets every coach to turn their chairs. Therefore, the idea that a 4-chair turn might be "disadvantaged" on Adam's team because he gets so many of them is offset by the fact that there is also a "disadvantage" on the other coaches' teams.  The other coaches just don't care about these types as much.  

 

Conclusion, who cares about this 4-chair turn stuff?  It's not in fact "dumb" to choose Adam when you are a 4-chair turn. It depends. Don't overthink it. Each contestant should just pick the coach with whom he/she fits well and feels the greatest connection. If you execute well and connect well, things will hopefully fall into place. 

[mercfan3]

See, I don't agree that it's a big enough sample size. 

 

We see that Adam only advances 50% of his four chair turns. But everyone else hasn't had enough to where you can say what they'd do or not. In fact, everyone else added together only has one more four chair turn than Adam does. How can we say what Gwen does with her four chair turns when she's only had one. 

 

But I think this four chair turn thing is being taken very literally. My point is, Adam consistently gets the most talent. You can see that, data wise, through four chair turns (and I suspect he gets the most three chair turns too). But really, sometimes a person who only got one or two chairs to turn actually ends up being one of the most talented individuals (Amber Carrington.) So yes, who cares about four chair turns. What I care about, is that everyone knows that Adam is going to have the best team. So when you are Caroline Glazer, and you know that three of Adam's three top 12 spots are more than likely filled, and one of Usher's three playoff spots are more than likely filled..why pick Adam? And she's not the only example of that situation.  

 

Now, fit is obviously important. And I really think that's why the producers tell them to go with their gut, because a lot of it is an emotional connection thing. But strategically, it doesn't make any sense. Everyone knows Adam has the most talent. Until top 12, teammates compete against each other. Why make it harder on yourself? 

Edited November 25, 2014 by mercfan3

[MangoFed]

Amber was a unique situation in that she came up near the very end, and would have gotten more chairs to turn if there were still open spots.

 

To be honest, I'm with Noreaster. The beauty of statistics is that we can adjust for the sample size to address those concerns you have. If you run a 95% significance level hypothesis test for the amount of 4-chair turns making it (which is the closest proxy we have to 'talent'), we get there's no real difference in the rate in which they're advanced between Adam and 'not Adam'. I'd wager that for 1 and 2 chair turns, there might be a difference, but it's hard to say.

[Noreaster]

From the S08:E11 episode thread:
 

Doesn't Blake explicitly say before some of those battles and knockouts that he only has room for so one old-style female country artists and one modern male country artists and one [fill in the blank]?  If he doesn't want his team cannibalizing each other's votes during live voting, it seems fine to me and a large part of why he wins so often (other than his personal "aw shucks" charm)

The strategy of bringing only one country guy to lives makes sense. However, Blake has been inconsistent over the seasons, and I suspect he never really goes in with a set strategy. I think most of his comments are taped after the fact to justify his actions.

 

I recall, in season 3, he brought only one country person to lives (and eliminated others on the way) and talked about how he didn't want to risk vote-splitting. Then in season 4, he did an about-face.  He talked about how he really wanted to win with a country contestant and that's why he brought all country folks to lives.  

 

Here's a recap of Blake's country strategy (based on my memory and double-checked with wikipedia):
Season 3: carried only 1 country person to lives but did not advance her to Top 12
Season 4: carried an all-country team to lives
Season 5: carried only 1 country person to lives but did not advance her to Top 12
Season 6: carried 2 country people to Top 12 (no live playoffs this year)
Season 7: carried 3 country people to lives.  Public saved 1, Blake saved 0.
 
So Blake is inconsistent with his strategy which is his right, but I wouldn't take any of his words at face value.  He is extremely good at bullshitting and saying everything with a straight face.  I believed him in the earlier seasons and realize now that I was naive.

 

Actually, re-reading the above, Blake is consistent in one thing. If the country folks don't get the public vote in the live playoffs, Blake just drops them.  Except for season 4 (when he had an all-country team), he has not once used the coach save on a country person.  

[ToxicUnicorn]

Blake has been inconsistent over the seasons, and I suspect he never really goes in with a set strategy. I think most of his comments are taped after the fact to justify his actions.

This explanation never occurred to me, Noreaster.  That makes a lot of sense.  Nice to see the recap of Blake's teams over the seasons, too.

 

So Blake is inconsistent with his strategy which is his right, but I wouldn't take any of his words at face value.  He is extremely good at bullshitting and saying everything with a straight face.

I think he has achieved the near-impossible.  He mixes up bullshit, leavens it with a great big dose of letting you know he doesn't take himself too seriously, and throws some truth in there occasionally.  As a result, I find his remarks very funny (often), never offensive (because I'm laughing along with him), and surprisingly insightful (at times).  I enjoy the fact that I never know which way his comments will go..

 

On the other hand, I think the strategy (on all the coaches' part) of only having one of any type of singer on their teams is silly.  So, they split votes.  Let the cream rise to the top, I say!  I'd be happier listening to two people in the same genre one more week than listening to someone who is not as good as either of them, but is doing something different.  I think worrying about vote splitting is not giving the audience enough credit for trying to vote for their favorite(s).

[viajero]

I do think that Blake shows a pattern of weeding out his country singers so that only one gets as far as the top-12.  Season 4 was the exception because he had a really strong cadre of country singers and his non-country singers simply weren't that good.  His one promising non-country singer was Luke Edgemon.  But Luke`s live playoff performance was a bit of a letdown in a week when Holly Tucker excelled.  It's happened too often and he's let too many promising country singers go for this not to have some strategic component.

[Noreaster]

On the other hand, I think the strategy (on all the coaches' part) of only having one of any type of singer on their teams is silly.  So, they split votes.  Let the cream rise to the top, I say!  I'd be happier listening to two people in the same genre one more week than listening to someone who is not as good as either of them, but is doing something different.  I think worrying about vote splitting is not giving the audience enough credit for trying to vote for their favorite(s).

I'm guessing the producers have some say and they prefer a more diverse show when possible. 

 

I do think that Blake shows a pattern of weeding out his country singers so that only one gets as far as the top-12.  Season 4 was the exception because he had a really strong cadre of country singers and his non-country singers simply weren't that good.  His one promising non-country singer was Luke Edgemon.  But Luke`s live playoff performance was a bit of a letdown in a week when Holly Tucker excelled.  It's happened too often and he's let too many promising country singers go for this not to have some strategic component.

Luke Edgemon was eliminated in knockouts.  And I don't agree that Blake sets it up so that only one country person makes it to top 12.  Just last season, Blake brought 3 country people to lives.   Only one person ending up getting the public vote, but Blake risked having more.  He even risked having two country guys in their 30s represent his team in the top 12.  Not much diversity there.  And then he went with two young pop/indie girls instead so the vote-splitting argument doesn't really work.  And in season 6, he brought 2 country people to the Top 12.  

 

I agree that Blake's actions are partly due to the talent that he has on any given season. If he likes the country contestants on his team, he'll advance them.  If he doesn't think they're as strong or he doesn't like their approaches (i.e Gracia Harrison, Savannah Berry), he'll favor other folks.  My point is mainly that his onscreen explanations for his decisions are usually bs.  I think he wants to avoid saying that someone is not that good or wants to avoid displaying his favoritism, so he just makes stuff up.  There is no real pattern in his strategy season-to-season.

Edited March 27, 2015 by Noreaster

[waving feather]

I think he has achieved the near-impossible.  He mixes up bullshit, leavens it with a great big dose of letting you know he doesn't take himself too seriously, and throws some truth in there occasionally.  As a result, I find his remarks very funny (often), never offensive (because I'm laughing along with him), and surprisingly insightful (at times).  I enjoy the fact that I never know which way his comments will go..

 

Wow, I've never read a more accurate description of Blake Shelton. It's not the accent. It's a talent.

 

I doubt any of the coaches have detailed strategy. Maybe just a loose one. Because no one can really predict how well someone is going to do during LIVES. I think they just decide on it as it goes along.

[mercfan3]

Most of Blake's talent is in country. He struggles to get the best of the other genres, so of course he'll take more country artists. 

 

Personally, I think coaches have their favorites and those are the people that end up in the lives most of the time. The only exception is Shakira, who seemed to really chose contestants based on who won what round and not out of personal choice or who has a better shot at winning. (For example, letting Clarissa Zerna go was a mistake, but Shakira thought Dani won.) With Pharrell and Adam, it's just sad because they usually have so much talent that we lose a lot of good people. Although that's not the case with Adam this season, so we'll see how he does. And Pharrell seemed to get rid of a lot of his talent (Except his favorites, which I think are Sawyer, Caitlin, and Mia) in the battles this season, which allowed some of them to move forward. Instead of doing it in the knockouts when the other coaches only have one steal each. 

[Kcat1971]

I have a theory- and this is just a theory mind you, but I'd like to hear what others think about it.

I have been pondering why some of the best contestants get paired together- so a judge will lose one and if no one steals a good one goes home.  Then two mediocre singers get paired together- thus guaranteeing one of them a chance to move on.  My theory is that the answer is that the pairing are NOT judge decisions- they are completely production decisions.  And the production team has these prime considerations when making its decision:

1. Good battles make more interesting TV and the bad battles can be montaged.
2. The loser of a great battle will be stolen- maybe even a fought over steal- which again makes for good TV because the voice really seems to be largely about judge interaction.
3. If one team is heavily stacked with good singers- battles & knockouts offer a chance to redistribute the singers and make it less likely that a judge will get knocked out of the competition too early.

If the Voice is trying to create a star- they really don't want 5 possible winners on Team Adam going into the lives- where 2 will be cut for sure, if they only have 1 that they consider a possible winner on Team Gwen. 

So what do you think? Are these pairing really producer driven or are the coaches really picking them?

[Dots And Stripes]

I have a theory- and this is just a theory mind you, but I'd like to hear what others think about it.

I have been pondering why some of the best contestants get paired together- so a judge will lose one and if no one steals a good one goes home.  Then two mediocre singers get paired together- thus guaranteeing one of them a chance to move on.  My theory is that the answer is that the pairing are NOT judge decisions- they are completely production decisions.  And the production team has these prime considerations when making its decision:

1. Good battles make more interesting TV and the bad battles can be montaged.

2. The loser of a great battle will be stolen- maybe even a fought over steal- which again makes for good TV because the voice really seems to be largely about judge interaction.

3. If one team is heavily stacked with good singers- battles & knockouts offer a chance to redistribute the singers and make it less likely that a judge will get knocked out of the competition too early.

If the Voice is trying to create a star- they really don't want 5 possible winners on Team Adam going into the lives- where 2 will be cut for sure, if they only have 1 that they consider a possible winner on Team Gwen. 

So what do you think? Are these pairing really producer driven or are the coaches really picking them?

Interesting theory, however I have a different take. I don't think Producers choose the battles. I do think they probably make suggestions or exert some influence, but I don't think they tell coaches "these are your battle pairings."

 

For one thing, coaches used to put strong artists against each other before the steal existed. Also, I disagree that bad battles necessarily get montaged. We've seen some battles where the coaches say they're disappointed. I think boring battles are more likely to get montaged, but bad can sometimes be so bad you can't look away. Even so, some battles will always have to be montaged based on time constraints. 

 

I think there are valid strategic reasons to have two strong singers go against each other. Singers of a certain age tend to get strong battle competition. I think it's a way for coaches to cut them without making it too obvious (not that I think singers of a certain age don't deserve a place in the competition, I just see them having a more difficult time getting to the live rounds). Same probably goes for any artist who has above average talent but the coaches don't think will bring votes. Also, pitting artists with a similar genre or style together is a smart move. If you have a team of artists who are too similar, they're less likely to stand out. The coaches say this all the time. There's only room on my team for one singer who sings x type of music, let's see which one is better head to head.

 

I can totally see producers exerting some influence on the pairings like I said, but I think a lot of the battle pairings can be explained by strategic reasons.

[Kcat1971]

You make good points as well.  It probably is some sort of joint decision between production and coaches.  Another reason to think it may really be a coaches decision is that they  say things like :"I'm so stupid for doing this..." I really wonder if Adam would ever take the blame for something he did not actually do.  On the other hand... saying that may be tongue in cheek because he knows it wasn't really his decision.  Easier to say I'm so stupid when you really mean- the person who did this is so stupid.

 

I still strongly believe that its not completely the coaches choice. 

[Dots And Stripes]

I see the "I'm so stupid" comments as a way to cushion the blow. I have to cut you now, but I really wish I didn't have to. I think it must be hard to cut someone after you convinced them they belong on your team instead of that other team they could have joined.  I also think it can be part of the cover when they set up an artist with a strong voice to be cut because they don't think they'll get votes. I don't take those statements too seriously. Adam is prone to false flattery as it is. How many artists are someone he needs to work with and the absolute best? Too many by my count

[Noreaster]

I have a theory- and this is just a theory mind you, but I'd like to hear what others think about it.

I have been pondering why some of the best contestants get paired together- so a judge will lose one and if no one steals a good one goes home.  Then two mediocre singers get paired together- thus guaranteeing one of them a chance to move on.  My theory is that the answer is that the pairing are NOT judge decisions- they are completely production decisions.  And the production team has these prime considerations when making its decision:

1. Good battles make more interesting TV and the bad battles can be montaged.

2. The loser of a great battle will be stolen- maybe even a fought over steal- which again makes for good TV because the voice really seems to be largely about judge interaction.

3. If one team is heavily stacked with good singers- battles & knockouts offer a chance to redistribute the singers and make it less likely that a judge will get knocked out of the competition too early.

If the Voice is trying to create a star- they really don't want 5 possible winners on Team Adam going into the lives- where 2 will be cut for sure, if they only have 1 that they consider a possible winner on Team Gwen. 

So what do you think? Are these pairing really producer driven or are the coaches really picking them?

We actually discussed this topic way back at the beginning of this thread (in early season 7).  My view remains the same. Producers seem to be more involved in battle pairing decisions now.  In the earlier seasons, most coaches paired up strong vs. weak in the battles.  Now, it's more similar artists paired against each other.  Makes for more entertaining (and arguably more fair) battles when the two are in the same genre/style for duets.  

 

Knockouts are a different story.  Knockout pairings seem to be all over the place to me every season. I think the coaches pick out the 4 contestants they want to advance and the 4 they plan to eliminate.  Then they make pairings that will allow them to best justify those decisions.  So, for example, if Adam decided this season to get rid of Viktor, he can do that best by pairing him against another technically-strong contestant like Jordan.  Probably hard to justify eliminating Viktor any other way.  

 

All that said, I've grown increasingly cynical about this game.  I would not at all be surprised if the producers are stepping in and influencing the knockout pairings in an effort to set up entertaining steals and to help redistribute the wealth.  Basically, I think everything in your post makes a lot of sense.

[hks]

I have a theory- and this is just a theory mind you, but I'd like to hear what others think about it.

I have been pondering why some of the best contestants get paired together- so a judge will lose one and if no one steals a good one goes home.  Then two mediocre singers get paired together- thus guaranteeing one of them a chance to move on.  My theory is that the answer is that the pairing are NOT judge decisions- they are completely production decisions.  And the production team has these prime considerations when making its decision:

1. Good battles make more interesting TV and the bad battles can be montaged.

2. The loser of a great battle will be stolen- maybe even a fought over steal- which again makes for good TV because the voice really seems to be largely about judge interaction.

3. If one team is heavily stacked with good singers- battles & knockouts offer a chance to redistribute the singers and make it less likely that a judge will get knocked out of the competition too early.

If the Voice is trying to create a star- they really don't want 5 possible winners on Team Adam going into the lives- where 2 will be cut for sure, if they only have 1 that they consider a possible winner on Team Gwen. 

So what do you think? Are these pairing really producer driven or are the coaches really picking them?

Thanks for directing me to this after I could not figure out the Viktor/Jordan pairing in the battles. This makes perfect sense. It WAS an awesome battle, and made for good TV. And Viktor of course got stolen. I could not imagine a reason why Adam would pair them if not for producer control/influence. I mean, why would he want to get rid of Viktor?  Now, if anyone here could come up with another reason, I'm all for it. 

[Dots And Stripes]

I think I posted in the episode thread on why Viktor may have been cut. He's an established artists elsewhere and he appeared to be talking over Adam and Rihanna a bit in their session. He may have been more difficult to coach if he already is set on who he is. If that vision doesn't mesh with Adam's, then it would make sense to cut him. Adam has always been about advancing artists he connects with. For whatever reason, he may have connected better with Jordan. It's also possible Adam went into that round expecting Jordan to be cut. I think there are a few different possibilities.

 

That battle only becomes hinky if Adam has other battles between two non-contenders. I think he expected the twins to win, but they kind of dipped while the guy he put them against did well. I think the guy paired against Kieth last night was also a four chair turn. Shelby is still a major favorite who I would expect to have safe passage. Adam also is a big fan of Amy on his team who's knock out we haven't seen yet. IMO, someone on Team Adam had to get a tough knock out round challenger. I can see both Viktor and Jordan having vulnerabilities, so I can see the strategic reason of putting them against each other and letting the stronger advance.