JC has always been with Lv4. As much as people like to claim he wants to keep the sides even he was pushing for Haleigh to put Sam on the block, which is exactly what Tyler and his side wanted (before the hacker comp). That doesn't sound like someone who is trying to ride the middle and keep the sides even.
Assuming he will make F5 if he just sticks with that alliance is a little silly though. Way too many variables at play, namely who wins competitions and when. Also what stupid twists TPTB will try to jam down our throats. Again.
I don't really see him as having a chance to win though. He's only got two real allies in Fessy (an idiot) and Tyler (who doesn't wanna take him to the end). Andy Herren had played a much better social game than JC. It was why he was able to splinter away from McCranda at the right time and create a new alliance that crushed the endgame. I don't see JC having that ability.