skybolt

I think TPTB want to show successful moves as much as possible. For instance, they may not think it makes sense to spend half the episode seeing Kim trying to strategize over a move that eventually failed. It's just how the show has always worked.

Are Ben, Sarah and Jeremy stuck with Tony until the final 5 (assuming none of them get voted out sooner)? Jeremy has to realize now that for whatever reason everyone wants him out. If Tony goes next, the target will clearly be on his back. Plus, I can't see him turning on Tony just yet, especially since he saved him twice. Sarah is now likely 100% in Tony's corner, unless Sophie comes back. She may not agree with Tony's game, but I truly believe both players believe the other one is taking them to the end. I'm not sure how anyone other than Sarah and Tony can trust Ben after him blabbing to Tony about Kim targeting him. I don't think he's enjoying this 4 person alliance with Jeremy, but I can't see him flipping yet. Maybe having an idol in his pocket will make him bolder to make a move on Jeremy, but I can't see him targeting Tony yet. Another reason why I think this alliance may work until final 5 is because of the unknown factor of the returning player. Sure, someone like Sophie could help Sarah and Ben's game, while Natalie would be a huge boost for Jeremy. However, why take a chance voting out allies if someone like Tyson, Rob, Parvati, or even Wendell (tight with Michelle and Nick) can blow up your game? With the remaining players, which 2 would each person consider their closest allies? Tony - Sarah & Jeremy Sarah - Tony & Ben Ben - Sarah & Tony Nick - Michelle & Tony? Michelle - Jeremy & Nick Denise - I guess Michelle & Nick, but she's not their first or second choice Jeremy - Tony and Michelle Looking at the list above, it's Tony at 4, Michelle 3, Jeremy, Nick, Sarah 2, Ben 1, Denise 0. Another thing to keep in mind is that on the surface it should be straight forward to take out a big threat like Tony. However, if you swing and miss and that person finds out, it could really blow your game. For instance, Nick went from being in Tony's top 3 to his 4th closest ally after Ben told Tony what happened. Now he finds himself in the minority. This game is not as easy as people think.

Thanks for your input. Everything you said makes sense. When I make these predictions I go more off the edits than the overall strategy in play. I almost upgraded Nick to fair, but I don't remember him getting such a goofy edit his first time around. The whole smelling the armpit, getting duped by Tony regarding where to look for the idol, getting tongue tied because he couldn't lie properly, etc. could've been easily edited out for the eventual winner (especially for an all winners season). Sarah is a tough one, but she did get the fashion show segment, as well as a few secret scenes, which Nick hasn't gotten.

I like the idea of giving the EoE players various challenges and letting them strategize as much as possible. However, starving them makes absolutely no sense, especially since over 90% of them will be on the jury. I don't want the jury to feel like they had to go through a worse ordeal than the final 3 standing. I can just imagine someone coming back from Edge and getting multiple jury votes just because they had to endure so much. At this point I'd rather have someone like Adam or Kim come back so we don't have to hear about suffering on Edge of Extinction for 30+ days.

I realize that fire tokens are still super important to the EoE players, especially with the return challenge looming. However, are fire tokens now overvalued in the main game? With only one episode left before the return challenge, will someone like Denise who has acquired 6 fire tokens, get a chance to use them for something substantial? For instance, are we really going to see another advantage come into the game from EoE, or with one episode left, all of the EoE players will get a chance to collect fire tokens (similar to the coconut challenge)? Has Tony already realized this, which is why he's giving up fire tokens to win over people's loyalty? With 3 advantages still in play, I can't see another one coming into the game with only 7 players left. The only thing I can see is Jeff selling an advantage in the immunity challenge for 5 tokens. Also, could the whole Ben vs. Jeremy drama come down to them going up against each other in a fire making challenge? That would be something.

With only 2 episodes left, let's go over which player has the best chance to win based on the edits: Slim: Ben - Hasn't really done anything all game. His edits have been very negative. Even moments of him searching for idols or opening up about his war experience have been relegated to secret scenes. Nick - I know people will disagree with me on this, but the edits haven't been kind to Nick. He's also been shown smelling his armpit or totally getting tongue tied when Tony confronts him. Unlike most of the other players remaining, he hasn't even been much involved in secret scenes. On paper he still has a chance, but the edits haven't been that good. Fair: Jeremy - He has gotten a decent amount of screen time and keeps escaping getting voted out every week. It would be a good comeback story, but his story is mostly tied to Tony's recently. Denise - She could easily move up to excellent next week if she gets an idol from EoE and blindsides Tony, or even Sarah (especially combined with the Sandra blindside). My one concern for her is that even though she's still winning immunities, the edits have concentrated on Kim being the architect of their moves. Good: Sarah - She's currently overshadowed by Tony, but if she wins this season, it won't be a surprise from an editing standpoint. Michelle - For better or worse we've witnessed her entire game. All the moves she's made, the edits have shown them. EoE Returnee - I'm starting to think that the reason other players haven't gotten a winner's edit is because either Tony or a returning player wins. I don't like it, but let's say Tony is out by final 5, editing may not want us invested in the remaining players (vs. the EoE returnee). Excellent: Tony - He could easily get blindsided this week, but his edits have been great.

I keep seeing posts asking why the remaining survivors don't just band together and vote out Tony. I think the main reason is that unlike Kim, Tony is actually putting in the effort to help other Survivors with their games (even if it's mostly for his own gain). Kim has always had great intuition, but instead of just telling others that Tony is a big threat, she should've been trying to convince everyone how keeping her could benefit their game. In contrast, Tony has literally saved Jeremy from being voted out twice, while keeping his 50/50 advantage. He also pulled Nick into the majority alliance after he was clearly on the outs after the Wendell and Adam vote outs. He shares everything with Sarah and was willing to use an idol for her, even though he knew the vote was between Jeremy and Kim. I don't know how, but he's convinced Ben that he's a big threat and needs a meat shield. Also, Ben rubs people the wrong way, but Tony has managed to be his best friend out there. He's also bribing players with fire tokens. It's like there are 6 Tony's out there catering to each player's needs 24/7.

I want to agree with you because I genuinely would've preferred Natalie, Rob, Parvati and Yul over some of the remaining players. However, I'm not sure what game they're playing on EoE, but it's not survivor. Them starving and collecting firewood and coconuts is extremely tough, but they're not playing the real game where you have to strategize and vote someone out every 3 days. It's like me saying I climbed Mt. Everest because I starved myself for 2 weeks sitting in the middle of the forest feeling miserable. Even if I had less food available to me than the climbers during that time, I still didn't climb Mt. Everest.

I watched the tribal council a couple of times and still can't figure out when Nick switched his vote from Jeremy to Kim. For instance, Ben seems very reluctant, but since his best ally in this game is Sarah, when he thought they were targeting her, he likely switched his vote. However, just before Denise shushed Jeremy, Nick told Sarah and Michelle that Tony wants him to vote Kim, but he isn't. Wonder what happened for him to flip at the last minute?

I think you mean Nick in the last sentence. In any case, Kim was constantly shown talking about making a big move, but it never panned out.

I meant that she'll spend her tokens on the return challenge advantage and potentially another idol (similar to the first challenge the EoE players did).

With Natalie having 1 idol already in her pocket, I assume she can buy another one with all her tokens. If she makes it back she could be guaranteed final 4. Love Natalie, but that's ridiculous.

I feel the same way. Back in Cagayan I really disliked Tony and his antics. However, when we got down to 5 or 6 people, I started thinking to myself do I really want Trish, Kass or Woo to win this thing? I even had to admit to myself that the person I was cheering for (Spencer) was getting lapped by Tony when it came to strategy. Same thing with Rick Devens, I absolutely hated his personality, but at the end I preferred him a million times over Chris, Gavin and whoever that other lady was. I want the survivor winner to be deserving of the prize, even if I liked someone else who didn't do anything in the game. For instance, I'm not a Denise fan, but if she takes out Tony (on top of Sandra), please let her win over players riding other's coattails. I agree. It's like not even attempting to put lipstick on a pig.

If Natalie makes it back, I can totally see Parvati and Amber voting for her. Both those girls seem to love her.

I have another question. When did Jeff state that they likely won't bring back EoE? If this statement was made after Season 40 ended, I'd be really worried that someone coming back from EoE has won their respective season both times. Perhaps the TPTB realized that it's unfair that the returning player has a leg up on the remaining players since they've had a chance to build that relationship with the jury. The whole idea is dumb. If you try and make a play to the jury with big moves during tribal, you risk putting a big target on your back for the returning player trying to blow up your game. If you keep low key, then the jury will see the returning player as having a better resume vs. someone who hasn't showcased their skill-set in fear of being targeted.

With the edits we've gotten thus far, is there even a remote possibility that either Ben or Nick win this game? I feel like 5 or 6 people on EoE have a better shot at winning than those 2.

I agree with everything you said except for the last part. Wendell was voted out a while back. Him coming back and joining forces with Nick and Michelle to form a majority to vote out the other 3 players is just not that impressive to me.

You make some good points, but I do think that someone like Sophie (Ben and Sarah) or Wendell (Nick and Michelle) could work with the remaining players.

I'm a huge Parvati / Boston Rob fan, but at this point I would accept even someone like Ben winning than a returning player from EoE. For me it'll be like someone losing in a chess tournament in the first or second round, going into the adjacent room and winning a checkers competition, and then coming back and being crowned the ultimate chess champion. Apples and oranges. Let's not forget that typically most of the big threats are taken out by the time we get down to 5. When the returning player from EoE enters the game at that point they're usually going up against 1 dominant player and 4 others with limited resumes. All the returning player has to do is convince the other 4 that so and so player will surely win the game because everyone on the jury is giving them their vote (based on their inside information). After the big threat is eliminated, all of a sudden the returning player has the best resume.

With the 50/50 advantage expiring after the next tribal, I honestly can't see a scenario where Jeremy gives it back to Michelle. Every time he appears to be on the positive side of the numbers after tribal, he's back at the bottom again by next week. Michelle will likely be safe anyway next episode. If I were Tony I'd be really concerned about the returning EoE player (if he makes it that far). I can't see any scenario working out for him. Wendell returning would create the triple alliance with Nick and Michelle. Parvati, Rob, Yul and Tyosn would automatically gun after the top dog. Natalie would surely tell Jeremy, "hey dude, you won't be able to beat Tony". Sophie may go back to being Sarah's No. 1. I'm not including players like Danni, Ethan, Adam and Amber because I think they have zero shot of returning. His best option may be Kim, or perhaps Rob or Parvati, since they would automatically be perceived as a bigger threat than him.

I actually think it has more to do with strategy, since it's allowed. For instance, last week Tony waited until sundown before approaching Nick and Jeremy to blindside Sophie. After tribal everyone was on to to his shtick. So this time around he waited until tribal started to pull his shenanigans to see if he can control the chaos. At that point he had nothing to lose since he was already wearing a necklace. A few weeks ago Kim started the whispers, and former players like Rob C. were saying it's a good move to see if she can hear who's name is being called out. Do I like the whispering, heck no, but unfortunately production does. In contrast, I actually don't mind out-loud conversations before Jeff reads the votes. At least in that scenario everyone, including the jury can hear what's being said.

I've mentioned this before, but I do believe the new school players became complacent after getting rid of big old school threats by just banding together and voting them out. They were also helped by players like Yul and Sandra. It's hard to change your game if what you're currently doing has gotten you this far. I also truly believe that players like Michelle, Ben or Nick believe that if they just make it to final tribal they can win (even against Tony). With practically everyone having a jury vote, people like Danni or Ethan have no clue what Tony or Sarah is doing other than what they see at tribal. Many castoffs never got a chance to play with these players since they got voted off so early in the game. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why we have so much going on at tribal because players want to showcase their skill set to the jury and not just have them base their votes on "oh, I at least met Michelle, so I'll vote for her."

It's annoying but not unprecedented. I noted above that other players like Malcolm and Natalie have talked to others before an idol is used.

100%. I'm not sure watching a bunch of complacent players, who give up winning immunity for peanut butter and chocolate, and reach a consensus decision 10 minutes after the immunity challenge ends, is riveting television. For instance, we spent 25 total minutes on the Wendell / Michelle drama and she didn't even make a big move to vote him out. The reason why others aren't getting a good edit is because they all just want to fly under the radar and put the target on someone else. Heck, at this point I'd even welcome a Ben bomb at tribal for a change.