fireice13
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Posts posted by fireice13
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I am happy to know that I'm not alone in how I feel about this election. I'm quite angry at the pollsters, though, because they really screwed up! I don't think Tuesday would have been as bad if the race had been shown tied for a few weeks or even him with a better chance. I don't want to hear the excuse of "margin of error" because the national polls actually ended up being close to what the final popular vote result is. The state polls, especially in the upper Midwest, were really off.
I keep reciting the line from Ted Kennedy's 1980 speech: "the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die." It's been giving me a lot of strength and hope.
I think this election also shows how the Democrats don't have a very deep bench. They were killed at almost every level of government in multiple states. They need to start finding and recruiting candidates for local offices like school boards and city councils, and state legislatures, and start getting people ready to run in the 2018 midterms. The party that holds the White House usually loses seats in the midterm elections so if the Democrats can get some good candidates and really work on getting the vote out they could make some inroads and get more people ready for possible 2020 runs.
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FYI:
Too early to call means not enough information has come in.
Too close to call means that there's not a clear winner based on the information.
Both need more information to call, but too close to call in a place like Georgia is scary to Republicans where too close to call in Pennsylvania would be scary for Democrats. Too early to call isn't scary for anyone because it's lack of information and not based on data at that point.
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MSNBC has Chris Hayes off on some "breaking news" desk for anything not being covered by the election. I'm not happy about him being sequestered off to the side. I want him on the main panel! Put Brian Williams on that stupid desk and put the person who actually knows politics next to Rachel.
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I think this is the best thread for this post. The Huffington Post had an article about how Nate Silver is adjusting polls before putting them in the model and that's why his model is showing higher odds for Trump than the NYT and Huffpost models do. Nate Silver went on a huge Twitter rant against the writer and the article. He was obviously livid. However, the Huffington Post article was interesting and if they're right about what Nate Silver is doing then that could explain the difference in the models. It's been interesting watching what's happening with all the polls and models because they don't all agree, especially the LA Times one, and everyone in that world is arguing with each other and it's starting to get a little publicly nasty.
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Vox had a really good article explaining how the Puerto Rican vote in Florida could deliver that state to Hillary.
Basically, Puerto Rico's economy collapsed due to Republican policies from the 90s that went into effect a few years before the global crash of 2008. Many of them decided to leave the island and move to the mainland, most of them to Florida. The key point is that Puerto Ricans have citizenship so they could easily move and immediately be allowed to vote.
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Chris Hayes had a guy on his show last night, I can't remember his name, who was talking about the hispanic vote in AZ, FL, NV, and CO. He said that one of the issues with polling is that most don't do a Spanish language poll. It's usually too expensive to put in the field. He said that Hispanic voters could be very underestimated because of the lack of Spanish language polls. It seems that early voting totals are bearing that out and I hope that means Clinton will outperform her polls.
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4 hours ago, BookWoman56 said:
Earlier this year, the PAC brought in two guest speakers to talk to us about the election, one Republican lobbyist and one Democrat lobbyist. Both were horrified by the idea of a Trump presidency, and both said that neither Wall Street nor big traditional U.S. banks will lend Trump money now because he has consistently screwed them over, so they've had to take huge losses on some of his loans, etc.
This is why I'm hoping that the polls are underestimating Clinton's support because a lot of business Republicans will actually vote for her. I know people who work with those types and they've all said they will probably end up voting for her because they know what they'll get and they can plan the next four years. With Trump, they would have no idea what would happen. If it's one thing the markets hate it's uncertainty.
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2 hours ago, LoneHaranguer said:
The one that comes to mind immediately because of its persistence is the one concerning people coming into this country illegally from Mexico. All he did was object to the Democratic claim that we didn't have to be concerned because they're all just good people looking for work, pointing out that there were criminals coming in too. Somehow that turned into him being a racist who said "Mexicans are rapists". He said no such thing. He wasn't even commenting on Mexicans in general. But, that hasn't stopped Clinton herself from repeating the lie.
If you go to this video and start at about 1:25 you will hear Donald Trump say they're bringing "drugs, crime, they're rapists, and I assume some are good people." Yes, he did say that thing; it's on video. In fact, a lot of the Hillary ads are just video of Donald Trump speaking. I think she should've brought that up in the debates when he said that she was making horrible ads against him. She should've said they're just videos of you speaking, Donald.
I do wonder what the election would look like if someone like Biden was running. Without the sexism and the decades of attacks - would we be looking at a blowout or would it somehow still end up a horse race?
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I really do enjoy this show. It's fun entertainment and as someone with a history degree I enjoy the historical settings. I have no problem hand-waving the inaccuracies.
I was thinking the nuke battery would allow the ship to never have to come back to present day. I figured that's why they always came back was to re-power. If they don't need to do that then they can just jump from time period to time period which I would guess makes it harder for the bunker team to track them down.
I feel bad for Rufus and it seems like Connor Mason got in over his head with these Rittenhouse people. He seemed sort of desperate and maybe he's hoping the info from Rufus will help him get out of whatever he got into. I do think they need to reveal the twist and maybe just the team could find out so that then they have to try and help Flynn without letting the homeland security woman or Mason know.
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Just now, Aquarius said:
It hurts my bleeding heart a little, but I might be developing a crush on Steve Schmidt. That's how messed up this election has been.
I like Steve Schmidt a lot because he isn't an ideologue. He's had a lot of good insights and had a good interview over on Vox.com about the GOP splitting. I'm not sure if it was in that interview or a different one where he referred to the Republican establishment as Vichy Republicans. Anyone who can make a reference like that gets my respect!
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Why is MSNBC always putting "Breaking News" above items that are scheduled?! Awaiting the VP debate is not breaking news! We know we're awaiting it because we know when it's happening. Breaking News should be reserved for things that happen that we had no idea were going to happen. If everything is breaking news then nothing is breaking news.
I was also wondering who that woman arguing with Tom Brokaw was. She was horrible! ETA - her name is Carrie Sheffield and she's a political analyst who grew up in a large Mormon family and went to BYU. Wikipedia entry
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I always thought that the intervention was such a bad idea because they were all so judgmental. I think if Cindy had just talked to Dylan alone and suggested rehab he would've been more open to all of it. I think she could have gotten through to him. If I had walked into a room of people looking at me like that I would immediately decided to keep doing what I was doing just to spite them.
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I have to wonder if it's just too much stuff to cover for the networks. Which is amazing since they're 24/7 pretty much, but it's an avalanche of new information that I think it ends up all getting lost and garbled.
Has anyone mentioned on the air that by still refusing to release his returns that Trump is basically saying the NYT is correct or that there may be something even worse that he doesn't want people to know about even if he did pay income tax? I've seen the theory a few places online but it doesn't seem any of the talk shows brought up that angle.
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After this episode I'm convinced it will be homegrown terrorism a la Timothy McVeigh and not Al Qaeda/Al Sakar. That way they can show the general and the governor as being wrong and Kirkman being right in not acting rashly. Also, logistically it makes more sense for white american citizens to be able to place the bombs than some foreign terrorist group.
I do really like Kal Penn's character and I found myself hoping he becomes Chief of Staff. I hope the congresswoman can put politics aside to help rebuild the government. After a new Congress, Cabinet, and SCOTUS are in place then bring politics back into but until then it would just make characters seem heartless (which may be the point the show will make).
Part of me wonders if this show would have worked better as a flashbacks. If it started with Kirkman's first State of the Union after being elected President and then we had flashbacks showing how it all came to be.
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I think it might be the next episode or two (I thought it was this one but apparently not) where Kelly and Donna wear dresses that have no shape to them at all. It looks they're wearing sheets.
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I actually looked up debutante balls and Wikipedia has a good article with a section on US balls. It says the age is usually 16-21 with the South trending a little younger and the North a little older. It does mention how they all have to perform the St. James Bow (full court bow) with the exception of debutantes from Texas who perform the Texas dip. Apparently one of the most expensive ones is the International Debutante Ball at the Waldorf Astoria in New York. It's an interesting read:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debutante
Here's a girl doing the Texas dip at the Waldorf. She starts at about 1:05
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I do love Val so I'm looking forward to her, but I miss Brenda. I can just imagine how awesome it would've been to have Brenda and Val both onscreen together. I only really watched through the college years; so I'm looking forward to Tara and Sarah's coverage of the post-college years.
I also vote for Dawson's Creek next (please, please, please).
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I agree that Suzanne and Kevin should have left Erica behind. The note eventually makes it to Dylan and is the reason he goes to Mexico with Jones and Val. It's mainly to rescue Erica along with getting the money back. If they had left Erica with him to begin with then they might not have been caught. I am excited that you're continuing with the podcast because I do love Val. I was excited when she showed up because I watched Saved by the Bell when I was younger and liked Tiffani Thiessen. I am not looking forward to holier-than-thou Kelly; she got so bad dating Brandon.
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51 minutes ago, mojoween said:
To my untrained eye it didn't look like Simone's routine had 1.7 amount of deductions and I trusted Tim who said that grabbing the beam was a .5.
Courtney Kupets said in the live feed that for awhile touching the beam was considered a fall for a 1 point deduction, then it was downgraded to a .5 deduction, and now it's back to being counted as a fall and 1 point deduction again. She did lose the 1 point from touching the beam.
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I thought Sanne's beam was gorgeous and her beautiful leo made it look even classier. I liked what Kupets said about making the Code of Points work for you. She was better with leaps and turns so they made a routine with enough of those to get a high difficulty and she did well with execution giving her that high score.
I'm happy for Laurie and Simone. I hope Laurie comes back in four years and gets a chance to compete for AA.
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I think this is a good article that sums up NBC's issue:
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I just watched the livestream of the women's team final from yesterday that I missed and it was sooooo much better than what was shown in primetime! I'm glad I was able to stream the men's AA today and I'll be able to stream the women's AA tomorrow. NBC should be really ashamed of their coverage, or should I say lack of coverage, of other countries. I want to see other countries doing well and being proud of their accomplishments. I want to see the best of the best no matter where they come from!
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I wonder if that hop on the landing gave the judges an opening to give him a lower score and maybe punish him for what happened in the team final. Is it possible that was on the judges' minds?
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Just now, Jillibean said:
I'm wondering if the commentators weren't told to toe the party line on this one. Yesterday on the Daily Dismount, they read through the whole text of Oleg's tweet, and Jon seemingly accepted it--but during the live broadcast he was stunned and horrified. When Courtney suggested it was due to injury, Jon contended that you can still get SOMEONE up there to do the event. So that about-face seems too abrupt to me to think he just accepted Oleg's explanation without question. But I'm sure the FIG would be perfectly happy for no one to talk about this again.
Until it happens again in 4 years...which it will if there aren't consequences and the result is a gold AA.
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Hillary Rodham Clinton: 2016 Democratic Presidential Nominee
in Current Events & Politics
Splitting electoral votes by congressional district would guarantee the Republicans wins every election. it's why they have the House even if Democratic candidates receive more votes. Democrats tend to cluster in urban areas under 1 maybe 2 congressional districts; whereas, Republicans are more scattered in suburban and rural areas and make up more congressional districts.