Stancold

That's basically my take. He has to know Ramsey is completely unreliable, and giving up his main bargaining chip at the very beginning of his negotiations is a baffling way to approach a guy he clearly doesn't respect and whose word he explictly doesn't trust. He has to know Ramsey needs the Umbers to maintain his hold on the North -- why offer the extra gift?

In the scene with Tommen, I was glad to see that someone finally brought a big time guard when meeting the High Sparrow, instead of unsuspectingly inserting themselves in the middle of a bunch of armed fanatics without any backup. On the other hand, I was surprised that Cersei and Jaime didn't make sure Tommen went with someone to keep him on point. From last episode, Cersei knew that Tommen was champing at the bit to go after the High Sparrow, and she also knows that he is a wily, slippery character, and that Tommen isn't the kind of guy who can deal with someone like him. Now it's being suggested that the High Sparrow is going to wheedle his way into Tommen's brain, and Tommen will be his tool instead of Cersei's. The Cersei of the first season was an enjoyably devious creature, but for quite a while now she seems incapable of hatching a scheme or outmaneuvering anyone. The fun of Tyrion taking her down a peg when he became the King's Hand was because she was so capable in the first season, although far from perfect. For a long time now she hasn't had anything close to a plan besides sending Frankenstein's Monster after the villagers.

I think it's open ended whether the Faceless want her to get rid of the kill list. Before Jaqen H'ghar sailed from Westeros, he suggested to Arya that by joining them she could take care of her list, and while it's possible he was selling her a load of BS, I think it's possible the three people on her current list (Ser Gregor, Walder Frey and especially Cersei) are high value targets for an organization that can command huge payments for killing powerful people, as indicated by Littlefinger to Robert back in the first season). I think it all comes down to how they operate -- do they treat the requests of a poor man to kill a greedy loanshark the same as the bidding of a rich lord to kill a wealthy rival who is threatening to overrun his lands and kill his children? I'm not convinced they are going to end up carrying equal weight for the Faceless Men.

My speculation is that the Faceless Men are closer to a true cult than they've appeared so far, and the leadership will turn out to be just as selfish and power-hungry as typical modern cults are. They're taking on Arya because they think she's useful even if she's unlikely to be a true convert. She can be sent to Westeros with her identity of Arya reestablished, and she would be well positioned to be activated in a Manchurian Candidate scenario. If there's collateral damage or she never survives the mission, they're OK with that, because she'll have earned whatever commission they've been paid. It looks like they're accelerating her arc (thank goodness) and if the creators play things right (in my opinion), she's going to be used in ways that start to show how the Faceless aren't as pure as they say.

I can understand why the show didn't go this direction, but a part of me wishes that Roose's death (and Tywin's death) had been tied directly to their roles in the Red Wedding. They schemed to violate the most sacred promise in Westeros when they engineered the killing of guests who had been promised safety, and I wish they were made aware that some kind of explicit penalty had been brought down on them as a result. That would have been a big complicated deal to carry out, so instead we just get Ramsay getting stabby all of a sudden and Tywin getting gutshot on the latrine, with no sense that betraying the Starks' Guest Right might be at play. Totally reasonable from a plot perspective, just not as satisfying to me.

The thing that really bugs me is the way people keep walking into their traps. By my count, the people who have been suddenly surrounded and outnumbered by the Sparrows are Loras, Queen Marge, Littlefinger, Cersei and now Jaime. I can understand Loras, since he was the first, but after that, word should get around fast that there are armed fanatics on the loose -- they haven't been particularly subtle or stealthy. Considering that Jaime himself staged a Kings Landing ambush on Ned Stark way back in the first season, he of all people should know that you don't go around by yourself or with just a couple of soldiers at your back. I can follow the idea that an armed brotherhood might take over a big chunk of the city and gain the support of the crowd, but I agree that the whole hostage taking dramas are weak. It's gotten to the point of a bad horror movie, where people keep going off alone into the basement...