Ned Merrill

Way Wes Jr said Great insight. I personally think that Savage will fly under the radar long enough to get to the point where a sturdy alliance carries him to the Final Three. I would love to see Fishbach win this thing, but his huge status in the Survivor community makes him an ideal candidate for an early blindside.

I quite agree that unpredictability is possibly the most unenviable trait a Survivor contestant can possess. However, I do not see this group setting up the long game and tending goats in the first 9-12 days. I evaluated relative tribe strength two ways: by comparing 'counterparts' (players with the same strengths and weaknesses), and by rating players 1 thru 10 and comparing 1 to 1, 2 to 2, etc. In both cases, I came up 5-5. It will be all-hands-on-deck for what I expect to be brutal, endurance-based challenges in the early going. Anyone who lags behind AND is an irritant around camp is going to get a quick trip home.

I am looking forward to this season like no other. I am fairly certain of this: either Abi-Maria Gomes or Kass McQuillen will be the first player gone. These returning players are not going to mess around, and unlikability is going to be a heavy burden. I definitely think that the older players (pre-Season 20) will have an advantage. They are overall a more mature group, and they have had a long time to think about what went wrong. The newer players are going to be pumped-up, but I believe their egos will prevent serious, game-long alliances from forming. Jeff Varner spilled the beans (or did he) about possible pre-game alliances, but he is too savvy to share his real thoughts (IMO). Of the old school group, my picks to go deep are Andrew Savage, Kelly Wiglesworth, and Terry Dietz. Jeff Varner will be a physical liability in the early challenges, which I expect to be very closely-contested. I like Stephen Fishbach a lot, but he has too big a target on him. I have a hard time getting a read on Kimmi Kappenberg and Monica Padilla, and I get a sense that Peih-Gee Law will have difficulty forming a strong alliance. Of the newer players, my choices are Vytas Baskauskas, Kelley Wentworth, and Tasha Fox to make the Jury, at the very least. It appears that Terry and Vytas are bonding, and they may pick off the big physical threats, like Spencer Bledsoe, Woo Hwang, and, later, Joe Anglim. I believe Jeremy Collins is a true wild-card, who was crippled from the get-go on his SJdS: B v. W season by defeating his wife, leading to her eventual elimination. Keith Nale will probably go early because he is not the strongest physical challenge performer, while Ciera Eastin may last longer. I will be interested to see if Shirin Oskooi can keep a low profile long enough to do serious damage. My prediction for the Final Three: Tasha Fox, Andrew Savage, and Kelly Wiglesworth. Sole Survivor: Tasha Fox