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S38: Preview & Speculation Thread


Whimsy
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On 3/15/2019 at 9:47 PM, LadyChatts said:

Preview for this week.  Lauren is crying (and takes a little fall during one of the challenges), Victoria says people shouldn't trust her, there's a box on EOE that is about the exiles fate in the game, and "double the blindsides."

Possible boot theories: Victoria could get blindsided for targeting Eric/idoled out by Aubry who didn't fall for her trying to sway her on an Eric vote (or someone else could go because of Aubry's idol).  I wouldn't call Wendy a blindside so she's likely safe.  Over at Lesu, I wouldn't say David is a blindside, either, so maybe Wardog does go?  Or Wentworth decides Lauren is just going to be weak fodder to keep around so they get rid of her (especially if they lose again).  Kama's more of a toss up; based on this past week, I'd say Ron or Joe. 

This, of course, assuming these are actual blindsides and not them making it seem like David or Wendy are in on the vote but then get bounced.  I'd even say Joe getting blindsided is a bit of a stretch, since all they've done over at Kama is talk about getting rid of him and Aubry.  Even after his talk with Ron, I'd be shocked if he thought Ron was with him 100%.

I wouldn't put too much stock in "double the blindsides".  They call almost every vote a "blindside" these days, and I just took that to mean "two tribal councils".

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3 hours ago, Bryce Lynch said:

I wouldn't put too much stock in "double the blindsides".  They call almost every vote a "blindside" these days, and I just took that to mean "two tribal councils".

That’s why I say, they could be fake blindsides or actual blindsides.  Now someone like David maybe thinks Wardog is going (based on the preview), or Wendy thinks she’s going to slide by again, and they get bounced.  Maybe they are blindsided, but as a viewer I wouldn’t call them blindsides.  Eric?  Wardog?  Yeah, that would be a blindside.  I also won’t be terribly shocked if Joe leaves this week, either, or is in danger after his chat with Ron last week.  I don’t think they showed that for nothing.  It could be Kama finally loses, and they paint it as Ron/Julia vs Joe/Aurora with Julie as the swing vote.

I’m thinking there will be a boring boot and an actual blindside.

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4 hours ago, Bryce Lynch said:

I wouldn't put too much stock in "double the blindsides".  They call almost every vote a "blindside" these days, and I just took that to mean "two tribal councils".

Yup.  These days, "blindside" = someone getting voted off.

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3 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Sneak peek for this week (this is the Wardog plotting against Lauren scene).  Sounds like Wentworth might actually be in Wardog's corner on this.

UGH TAKE HIM OUT NOT LAUREN. But of Course Lauren hasnt told her about her Idol yet . Maybe she does in this episode 

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13 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Sneak peek for this week (this is the Wardog plotting against Lauren scene).  Sounds like Wentworth might actually be in Wardog's corner on this.

This preview seems so transparent, that I have to figure the opposite happens. Plus, Lauren has the idol.  I really hope they vote out The Warthog instead.   

The Warthog has a certain amount of Survivor smarts, but is seems like he his thinking way too much and playing way too hard. 

His original plan to keep strong players like Chris and Wentworth around as post merge shields made a lot of sense.  But, turning on Chris was foolish, and I think targeting Rick instead of David was also stupid.  David has played the game before and is a great social and strategic player.  Plus, he is a returnee and would have that in common with Wentworth, Aubry and Joe, post merge.  He is a much bigger threat to form new alliances, post merge, than Rick was.   

Of course, after seeing this preview, the Lesu Browns probably won't even end up going to TC.  

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Next week is the big reveal!

I just realized that NuOld Kama is pretty golden, as they haven't voted out anyone.  And the only people NuMana voted out was Aubry and Wendy (in a joint effort).  

Hoping the merge is more exciting than the first half of the season.  I think Wardog, Wentworth, and Lauren will be the most vulnerable if whoever returns is out for blood and side with Kama.  Who may abandon their plans to vote out Joe at first, assuming he actually loses early challenges.  David would probably flip in a heart beat.

Too much too hope for for a Wardog blindside next week? 

Edited by LadyChatts
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I think it'll be interesting.  I have to believe Joe/Aurora know they're on the bottom of Kama (especially after Aubry getting voted out by NuMana).  So they might try to pick up any bottom feeders they can find.  

Tonight's editing was interesting, with so much focus on Joe and Kama.  It makes me wonder if Joe could be a surprise merge boot.  Of course, they may just be trying to show us what's going on over there before the merge. 

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14 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

I think it'll be interesting.  I have to believe Joe/Aurora know they're on the bottom of Kama (especially after Aubry getting voted out by NuMana).  So they might try to pick up any bottom feeders they can find.  

Tonight's editing was interesting, with so much focus on Joe and Kama.  It makes me wonder if Joe could be a surprise merge boot.  Of course, they may just be trying to show us what's going on over there before the merge. 

Joe does need to go, though. He's the reason Kama is undefeated. If Joe or anyone from Kama goes, I'll be happy. There's only 4 original Manu left, and would suck to lose them, except Wardog or course. He can go and I wouldn't care at all.

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24 minutes ago, TVFan1 said:

Joe does need to go, though. He's the reason Kama is undefeated. If Joe or anyone from Kama goes, I'll be happy. There's only 4 original Manu left, and would suck to lose them, except Wardog or course. He can go and I wouldn't care at all.

Funny thing is, I don't like any of Manu (except David) so as much as I dread a predictable pick off, I wouldn't care at the same time.  

Then again, from what I've seen of Kama, I'm not exactly jumping for joy at that tribe, either.  One advantage Manu has is that Kelley/Lauren have idols.  Those two (and unfortunately Wardog) might be in a good spot, being in the minority, and possibly having a returning player coming after them, to try and align with some Kama members.  We saw Victoria tonight say she wasn't willing to go to rocks for her tribe members, and that people shouldn't trust her.  She could end up flipping on Kama.  As I said, I think David will go with a majority because he really has no loyalty to the Lesu 3.  I feel like if he knew there was a merge coming up he might have voted out Lauren. 

I think Wardog and his big mouth is going to get it sooner rather than later.  Or at least I hope.  He's playing too hard, too fast, and has D/K/L annoyed at him.  What I've seen from Kama, they don't strike me as the type that will follow his orders.  Of course, he may seem like perfect final 3 goat fodder, too.  If he's gotta stick around, I hope he hilariously loses some IC.

Edited by LadyChatts
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2 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

Funny thing is, I don't like any of Manu (except David) so as much as I dread a predictable pick off, I wouldn't care at the same time.  

Then again, from what I've seen of Kama, I'm not exactly jumping for joy at that tribe, either.  One advantage Manu has is that Kelley/Lauren have idols.  Those two (and unfortunately Wardog) might be in a good spot, being in the minority, and possibly having a returning player coming after them, to try and align with some Kama members.  We saw Victoria tonight say she wasn't willing to go to rocks for her tribe members, and that people shouldn't trust her.  She could end up flipping on Kama.  As I said, I think David will go with a majority because he really has no loyalty to the Lesu 3.  I feel like if he knew there was a merge coming up he might have voted out Lauren. 

I think Wardog and his big mouth is going to get it sooner rather than later.  Or at least I hope.  He's playing too hard, too fast, and has D/K/L annoyed at him.  What I've seen from Kama, they don't strike me as the type that will follow his orders.  Of course, he may seem like perfect final 3 goat fodder, too.  If he's gotta stick around, I hope he hilariously loses some IC.

I don't blame you for disliking Manu. I'm not disliking Kama, there are good and interesting people over there, but it's just boring because all they have been doing is winning and seeing them run the rest of the game will be annoying. 

Either way this season goes, I'll continue to watch. I'm hoping some of Manu can get into an alliance with some Kama members.

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It's tough to predict what happens since the reveal of the EOE people will completely throw a wrench into everything.  If it's like the outcast tribe in Pearl Islands, we'll have a three-tribe challenge (EOE vs. two groups of six, comprised of the people in the game), and the EOE will get to send one person back into the game for every tribe they defeat.  And if it's like Redemption Island, the EOE will continue after this challenge, so the remaining players will now go forward knowing they have a backup plan in case they're voted out.

Am I the only one who's annoyed they're actually revealing the EOE twist this early?  Maybe I was misinterpreting the preseason hype, but my understanding was that the eliminated players wouldn't get a chance back until close to the very end of the game.  So in Reem's case, she'd have to tough it out for over four weeks before finally getting her chance.

Edited by OutOfTheQuestion
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I know Joe is actuall a challenge monster, at least in this crowd.  So on the one hand it makes perfect sense that it comes up a lot.  But it is coming up a LOT.  Like...is this going to be a thing?  A real thing or something they make a thing?

This isn't really speculation just,.....  I guess there are 3 options, he gets voted off and wins his way back in, jeffie and producers are thrilled.  He gets voted off and surprisingly does not manage to win his way back in, jeffie and producers cry.  Or he stays in and goes on some sort of immunity run, results unknown.  

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3 minutes ago, marys1000 said:

I know Joe is actuall a challenge monster, at least in this crowd.  So on the one hand it makes perfect sense that it comes up a lot.  But it is coming up a LOT.  Like...is this going to be a thing?  A real thing or something they make a thing?

This isn't really speculation just,.....  I guess there are 3 options, he gets voted off and wins his way back in, jeffie and producers are thrilled.  He gets voted off and surprisingly does not manage to win his way back in, jeffie and producers cry.  Or he stays in and goes on some sort of immunity run, results unknown.  

Rob C mentions on RHAP that Joe went perfect on his last appearance and almost won the individual immunity the day he was voted out. Joe is a legit challenge beast. I think he is more in Ozzy territory then Malcolm was.

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11 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I think it'll be interesting.  I have to believe Joe/Aurora know they're on the bottom of Kama (especially after Aubry getting voted out by NuMana).  So they might try to pick up any bottom feeders they can find.  

Tonight's editing was interesting, with so much focus on Joe and Kama.  It makes me wonder if Joe could be a surprise merge boot.  Of course, they may just be trying to show us what's going on over there before the merge. 

Thats what I thought too.  Foreshadowing and/or certainly makes sense.  Keep the tribe strong then out you go!

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6 hours ago, ProfCrash said:

Rob C mentions on RHAP that Joe went perfect on his last appearance and almost won the individual immunity the day he was voted out. Joe is a legit challenge beast. I think he is more in Ozzy territory then Malcolm was.

IMO Joe easily out-does Ozzie at challenges.  He's as good as Ozzie physically, if not better.  And he's also outstanding at puzzles. 

Alas, Joe is about Ozzie's equal at the rest of the game, which is by far the most important.  He knows he needs to play better socially and strategically.  But he doesn't really know what to do.  One example is how easily the others in his tribes snookered him about working together.  He thought they were his allies: they couldn't wait to boot him. 

In 2nd Chances Joe survived the first time he lost an IC.  But it seems unlikely to me he can go deep any season unless he wins virtually everything.  

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17 hours ago, TVFan1 said:

I don't blame you for disliking Manu. I'm not disliking Kama, there are good and interesting people over there, but it's just boring because all they have been doing is winning and seeing them run the rest of the game will be annoying. 

Either way this season goes, I'll continue to watch. I'm hoping some of Manu can get into an alliance with some Kama members.

I know what you mean.  I get why people would want Joe gone, but he's such an obvious and boring boot that I hope there's a true Kama blindside.  Or any blindside.  Preferably Wardog.  Also, if EOE is still going to be in play, I wonder if that'll effect how the castaways vote going forward.  Someone like Joe could have an easy time making his way back.  '

FWIW, here's the episode description for this week.  It's interesting they don't even mention the player from EOE coming back:

Quote

Alliances are tested after a highly anticipated merge between tribes. Also, one castaway can rest easy after winning the first individual immunity challenge of the season,

I don't know why, but I feel like this is going to be a boring, anti climactic merge boot.  Maybe Wardog flips on Kelley/Lauren, or Victoria on Gavin/Eric, but I'm thinking Joe's a goner if he loses.  If not him it'll probably be someone like David or Kelley, with the anti-returning player mentality out there.  And Wentworth has an idol so she could play it.   

Quote

IMO Joe easily out-does Ozzie at challenges.  He's as good as Ozzie physically, if not better.  And he's also outstanding at puzzles. 

Alas, Joe is about Ozzie's equal at the rest of the game, which is by far the most important.  He knows he needs to play better socially and strategically.  But he doesn't really know what to do.  One example is how easily the others in his tribes snookered him about working together.  He thought they were his allies: they couldn't wait to boot him. 

In 2nd Chances Joe survived the first time he lost an IC.  But it seems unlikely to me he can go deep any season unless he wins virtually everything.  

He did pretty good getting in Julia's head and making her worry that she could be seen as a threat.  However, I'm guessing he didn't do that on purpose and it was more 'us targets have to stick together' type of talk.  Who knows, Joe may find himself in a situation like he did in S31 when Stephen got blindsided over him.  Someone might want to use the diversion to get rid of another person and has the votes to do it.  Unfortunately, I'm not sure that'll be the case this time.  I'm not quite sure what to make of the editing this season, and last night had me more confused.  Part of me thinks that this is leading up to a Joe boot next week (especially with the tears), or it's giving him and the other Kamas a story and someone else gets blindsided.

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8 hours ago, kikaha said:

IMO Joe easily out-does Ozzie at challenges.  He's as good as Ozzie physically, if not better.  And he's also outstanding at puzzles. 

Joe is amazing in a sort of dutiful way, but I don't feel like he has the creativity of Ozzy.  Like that time when Ozzy moved all the coconuts to the end of the underwater cage so that everyone else had a super-easy time getting them.  I would put him ahead of Joe, just slightly.

Edited by KimberStormer
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Bringing the EOE crew in at the point where it becomes an individual game makes me wonder if the twist is the top 12 players in whatever the challenge is move on in the game.  Conceivably everyone or no one from EOE could return.  If this turns out to be Redemption Island with a different name and set on Craphole Island that's going to be pretty lame. 

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On Survivor Know it Alls Stephen and Rob were theorizing that next week we will see an EOE "jailbreak" challenge (like on RI) where the contestants have to tie sticks together to form a long stick to snare the key and pull it back behind the bars to free themselves.   They think that what Chris won was the stick  and rope so he can practice making his long stick. 

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That would fit in with the other instances of "players not totally out of the game coming back in".  Jail Break has a close association with those seasons.

The Outcasts of Pearl Islands had to beat either of the two tribes in the team form of Jailbreak in order to vote one person back in (or both to vote in two).

And all 3 RI seasons have used the individual variant as one of the Duels.  It was the first one on RI1, where Matt knocked out Franchesca.  In South Pacific (RI2) it was the Duel Ozzy beat Christine in as part of his stupid plan.  And on BvW1/RI3, it was the Truel between Laura Morett and Tina and Katie, where both mothers won.  (Katie got rocked out, then knocked out by her own mother.)

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2 hours ago, ProfCrash said:

That was awesome. Reem had the death glare but Chris had a pretty pointed look as well.

I enjoy Reem's rage, but it is sort of silly.  Chris actually got blindsided by his closest ally so I get his anger more.  He would also seem to have a better chance of doing something about it by winning the challenge, unless Keith sabotages him with the knots that Reem "gave to him".   I'm sure that would make Reem happier than winning the challenge herself.

It seems clear the that merged tribe will watch the other 6 compete to get back into the game.  There are 6 lanes on the challenge course. 

One section looks like it could be the jailbreak challenge where they tie the sticks together to make a long pole to get the key.   

I wonder what the snakes inside those frames and the beginning (end?) of the course are for?

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So, we don't know what the challenge will be or how many will renter the game and what happens to those who don't.  Do they go home?  Head back to EOE awaiting another chance?

I would think Chris would be the big favorite to win the challenge, and Wendy seems like the 2nd best at challenges among the EOE group.  If Keith slows down Chris with the extra knots, Wendy might be the favorite.  I really want her to go home, but if she gets back in, she might be pretty safe as a number/goat for one of the alliances that emerges.   

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53 minutes ago, Bryce Lynch said:

If Keith slows down Chris with the extra knots, Wendy might be the favorite.  I really want her to go home, but if she gets back in, she might be pretty safe as a number/goat for one of the alliances that emerges.   

Yeah, Wendy never really got any credit for being so good in challenges.  Maybe because she doesn't fit the "challenge beast" stereotype and was edited as a wacky character.  But she has been notably strong in the challenges, including swimming, despite having a sprained ankle early on, but also in puzzles.

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Not that there's been any indication of this, but just for the fun of it: I almost hope Victoria (the spiritual successor to Michelle Schubert on Millennials vs Gen X) manages to orchestrate a merge boot to get David out, which would be the complete inverse of mvgx, when David got Michelle out at the merge. Justice for @KimberStormer!

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This will NEVER happen, but....

I'd love if the entire EoE challenge was a fake-out and the remaining players got to VOTE on who comes back! Imagine the scramble! Imagine the arguments! What do you use for criteria --  easiest to beat? Most likely to be grateful & loyal? Best shield? 

Probst could give them 3 minutes to huddle and then take an immediate vote on who rejoins the game.

Like I said, never happen, but I think it'd be so much fun.

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3 minutes ago, Gummo said:

This will NEVER happen, but....

I'd love if the entire EoE challenge was a fake-out and the remaining players got to VOTE on who comes back! Imagine the scramble! Imagine the arguments! What do you use for criteria --  easiest to beat? Most likely to be grateful & loyal? Best shield? 

Probst could give them 3 minutes to huddle and then take an immediate vote on who rejoins the game.

Like I said, never happen, but I think it'd be so much fun.

That would be great.  I have no idea who they would take back. 

If original Kama didn't have such big numbers, I would think Aubry.  But, since they don't really need her vote, she is a returnee and was blindsided by 4 of them, I doubt it would be her.

The rest are all Manu, so I am guessing they might take the weakest, Keith or Reem, maybe?  Or maybe Wendy, because she is the least loyal to Manu?

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Maybe it'd be even better if Probst didn't let the voters talk. That way we'd see what's on each person's mind without influence from the others.

For instance, it'd probably be in Joe's best interest to vote Chris back in as another big male target. 

Some who feel in a secure position might vote in Wendy for the chaos.

Oh well. Maybe another season.

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Looks like we got medical coming in next week.  Of course Victoria would be the one seen still standing there and asking "what happened?"  Well, we know it's not her that went down.

Not sure if Ron deserves the puppet master title.  Hopefully this is a sign that he gets blindsided next week or idoled out.

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1 hour ago, TVFan1 said:

I wonder who it is that gets hurt next week. Ron wants to separate who exactly? The camera was on Kelley and Lauren, but he could be talking about anyone.

I went back and watched the preview.  Ron says he wants to break them down, and we cut to Kelley and Lauren.  This after he says to Eric "they have zero power", and that he's the puppet master.  I don't know if he just wants to make them turn against the other, or just sees them as a pair and wants to vote them off.  I can see Wardog jumping to the Kama 6 side if it spares him a few weeks, so maybe that's part of that conversation.

I think I like Kelley more when she's on the bottom.  Hopefully this is leading to an idol play next week based on what Ron said in the preview.  Also, I'm dying to see why he calls himself the puppet master.  What exactly has he done?  

I'm curious what Rick means when he tells David that he's getting played.  

Edited by LadyChatts
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9 minutes ago, LadyChatts said:

I went back and watched the preview.  Ron says he wants to break them down, and we cut to Kelley and Lauren.  This after he says to Eric "they have zero power", and that he's the puppet master.  I don't know if he just wants to make them turn against the other, or just sees them as a pair and wants to vote them off.  I can see Wardog jumping to the Kama 6 side if it spares him a few weeks, so maybe that's part of that conversation.

I think I like Kelley more when she's on the bottom.  Hopefully this is leading to an idol play next week based on what Ron said in the preview.  Also, I'm dying to see why he calls himself the puppet master.  What exactly has he done?  

I'm curious what Rick means when he tells David that he's getting played.  

Maybe Ron's comment on he's the puppet master is a hint that he's actually not. Kelley and Lauren could play their idols and Ron gets bounced. That would be so satisfying if that were to happen.

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8 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Looks like we got medical coming in next week.  Of course Victoria would be the one seen still standing there and asking "what happened?"  Well, we know it's not her that went down.

Damn. Wouldn't it have been great if she was wearing that stupid woolly hat in the heat and just collapsed, though!

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7 hours ago, TVFan1 said:

I wonder who it is that gets hurt next week.

It sort of looked like a "stand in the heat" challenge, so my money is on  "she can't keep anything down" Lauren. I don't think she'll leave the game, but that Chekov's gun has been brought up more than once.

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Looks like David wants to side with the misfits?  That must be where Rick says to David that he's getting played, because he apparently wants nothing to do with Wentworth's gang.  Wonder if he's going to be portrayed as a swing vote between the Kama 6 and the band of misfits (or if David caves and sides with Kama and Rick).  Also wonder if Rick will be sorry that he shared his idol with David.

I'd be shocked if an idol doesn't come out this episode.  I really want someone from Kama to go home this week.  I had to laugh in the preview when David said that Eric and Ron are running this show, but I can't even remember who Eric is.  Not sure if that's a good sign that someone this invisible so far is being called a leader.  

Edited by LadyChatts
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That is especially funny since at the Aubry boot It was Victoria who came up with the plan and then last episode she was the one who came up to the two of them to let them know who the target was at that vote. I have no idea who the "leader" is or if they even have one but I have certainly not seen any evidence that it is Eric. One of my big questions for this episode is where Aurora goes?  We saw her with the other Kamas on that clip so I wonder if she just joins back up with them.

Edited by LanceM
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Where Victoria's concerned, I'm wondering if that's just the edit she's getting or if she's really calling the shots.  It could be a good thing that they are giving her the credit over Eric or Ron thinking up the plan, but also might make her seem overconfident and wind up blindsided.  As of now, I'd say it's a good thing, but we'll see.  Eric's edit is non existent, Ron's is overconfident, but Victoria's getting the best of the 3.  As for the rest of Kama they are just there.  

I also don't see why Ron is seen as calling the shots.  He wanted Joe out over Wentworth, so they went along with it.  I don't see how that makes him a leader.  He did say on his twitter this week that he played up the whole Kama strong at TC after Victoria made the comment about getting rid of threats.  He wanted to make Joe feel comfortable and not play an idol if he had one.  However, I still think Joe knew he was going, or at least that there was a good chance he was going.  I'll again say he thinks he's better at this game than he is, or at least is being edited.

I wondered why the Kama group looked a little bigger on the beach, but didn't see Aurora.  Hope she doesn't jump back in with the 6 that wanted her gone, and is just playing double agent.  Whatever the case, I just want something exciting to happen this week.  Heck, I'm fine with Wardog sticking around if it means a Kama member leaving.

Edited by LadyChatts
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1 hour ago, LanceM said:

I have no idea who the "leader" is or if they even have one but I have certainly not seen any evidence that it is Eric.

 I have a cousin named Eric who I’ve seen maybe twice in the past 30 years, and I probably have a better idea what’s going on with him that I do THIS fucking guy. 

1 hour ago, LanceM said:

One of my big questions for this episode is where Aurora goes?  We saw her with the other Kamas on that clip so I wonder if she just joins back up with them.

 I expect Aurora certainly hopes she can jump back in with the rest of Kama, because otherwise she got nothin’.

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I'm looking forward to Joe's entry onto the Edge of Extinction, as everyone realizes their path back in got a lot harder. I wouldn't be surprised if Aubry full-on breaks down in a tearful rendition of "I Dreamed a Dream" from Les Miserables.

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