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David T. Cole

Vote Now, Brag Later: Who's Going To Be Cagayan's Sole Survivor?

Survivor Cagayan Winner   POLL OPEN

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Place your bets and post who you chose and why. It's the only way to be internationally recognized if/when your pick wins it all.

Jefra Bland is obvs going to win it all because she lists one of her pet peeves as "people who smack their gum."

Therefore if she doesn't win, God is dead.

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LJ. He seems just boring and bland enough to somehow make it to the end. Also, his is the first video I clicked on, and the show starts in 5 minutes.

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I picked Sarah yesterday afternoon, and the premiere hasn't dissuaded me from that; at the very least I'm pleased that it wasn't a totally embarrassing pick to make. But she looks solid so far--she managed to take the leader role without getting flak for it, and she seemed to breeze through the puzzle.

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I went with Woo, on the theory that his alliance with Cliff Robinson will take him far. His pet peeve is "rude and loud people with no manners," though, which could be a real problem on Survivor.

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Late to the voting, but I think LJ looks pretty good at this point; he's likely to be targeted quickly post-merge, but his idol, if used wisely, may get him past the numbers problems. 

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I'm going with Kass. She's smart, funny, and a proven winner in her field. Also, I tend to root for the over 40 women. Someone has to, and as I am one, it seems prudent. 

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I agree with JustAlison.  Kass is funny, self-aware, and seems in control of her emotions, as you would expect of a more mature person.  I think she could go far if she stays under the radar and the brains stay strong.  There aren't any players I am against at this point.  I love that all these people are newbies.  

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Can I still vote for J'Tia? Yeah, I know she's gone, but I'm not ruling out a surprise twist just to bring her back. She's socially unaware, athletically ungifted & unskilled at puzzles. Trifecta!

I guess if I was guessing I'd go with Kass or LJ. Kass is either truly smart or being edited that way. LJ is coming across as clever also, be it producer driven or reality. The shallow side of me wants LJ to win, but the part of me that wants to believe Kass is truly a brain is going with her.

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I'll take Tasha.  She's had airtime, but not too much.  She's had a decent edit thus far.  I could see her laying low for the first part of the merge, building alliances to last through to end game.  Go  Tasha!

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I voted Kass, but now that I'm typing I am actually leaning towards Spencer, mainly due to his "this could be the final three" quote.  I think it will be one of those two.

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Based on editing, and who seems to be able to adapt to ever changing situations I'm going with Spencer. He's managed to bounce back from the mess the chaos of his original tribe and finds himself in a position of power, he just need to not mess that up.  Although I'd be happy with almost anyone winning at this point, no one has been unbearable to watch for me this season which is rare. 

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I'd like to see Spencer win after the train wreck that was the Brains, but I think LJ will pull it out.

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The main reason I think one of the Brain ladies is more likely to win than Spencer, is he would be considered more of an immunity threat in the event they have the numbers at the merge. If Sarah sides with the Brains, you will likely see at least one person bounced by an idol...possibly even two.

It is hard to imagine that they wouldn't target the two men on that tribe.

Hell, that could happen sooner rather than later anyway. I could almost see the men trying to get all these threats off, resulting in the women having a huge majority, potentially leading to a women's alliance. It has been known to happen.

Therefore, I think Tash and Kass are more likely to win. I can't see people voting for Tony or Trish and LJ is going to need to do serious maneuvering if he is going to survive the whole game.

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I voted for LJ, but not just a vote for LJ but also a vote against Spencer. He just rubs me the wrong way. And it's not even as though he's getting a particular edit (no villain or hero vibe to me). Spencer is just kinda there and a little repulsive. It's probably me, but honestly a lot has to do with the Romney worship. Just ick. 

That being said, secretly I suspect Spencer has the best shot at the moment - but I still hope LJ manages to pull off enough of a social game to stay off radar until he needs to pull an immunity run that gets him to the end. 

 

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Yeah, I am going to be pretty bummed if any of the Brains win, and the fact that Spencer seems to be the favorite is pretty depressing.  Of course, anything can happen with the stupid Terry/Yul idol coming soon which promises a free ride to the end for whoever gets it.  Don't need to play well if you've got an invincible idol!

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Well crap, I voted for Kass to win a couple of days ago.  My guess is I am probably going to be wrong about that.

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I chose Kass, too.  I don't think she will win, not so much because of her flip, but because the flip showed that she was not in the tight alliance we were lead to believe she was.  

Edited by Cricketoo

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Cute Guy With Initials has managed not to really alienate anyone so far.  He's doing a great job of being one of the power players while letting it all reflect back on Tony -- it's rare when a power player manages to stay under the radar and set someone else up as a target.  Richard Hatch did it, but not many others since.

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I'm going way out on a limb here and admit I voted for Trish.  She's already made sure the two people (Cliff and Lindsey) who hated her the most are not on the jury and she managed to bring Kass into her alliance. For that alone she has shown she is playing this game the best. She may also accomplish the almost impossible feat of keeping Kass loyal. I know she's hated on this and other websites but it doesn't seem to me that her remaining tribe mates have a problem with her, nor does she seem to appear to them to be a big threat. They were more down with getting rid of poor innocuous Jefra than her.  So that's why I voted for Trish.  She could fly right under the radar into the final and no one could deny that she hadn't made some big moves.

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I just voted for Jeremiah, because it seems like people like everyone is underestimating him. I want LJ to win, though, because I have eyes.

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I don't know - from what we saw at tribal council tonight, Sarah and Morgan both seemed to really like Tasha.  That's 2 for 2 on the jury who really seem to like her if she makes it to the end.  And she rocked that challenge today.

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I think Spencer is getting the Malcolm edit, while Tasha is getting the Denise edit.  My vote is for Tasha.  But I won't be disappointed if it goes to LJ.

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I still think it could be Kass.  She might be kept around because she has made enemies, but I suspect she could make a strong case for herself in the end - unlike some of the other players, she made a big move.  

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I voted for Trish. Her enemies were dispatched with before the jury started, she'll be a major contender in any "hold up a certain proportion of your body weight" challenges, and she's the one who got Kass to flip, which shows she can read and play people correctly. This has been an unpredictable season, so I don't have tons of confidence in my vote, but of the players left in the game, I would say she's probably the one with the most potential to get to the end without pissing off too many people on the jury.

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I deleted my old vote (for Spencer) and revoted, picking Woo this time.

 

Why Woo?  I think Trish and Kass ARE going to move on without Tony at some point soon, he'll lose his Magic Tyler Perry Idol, and it will break down in one of a few ways:

 

Tony retargeting the ladies, with Woo as his last ditch ally.  It gets to a final vote with Woo in the group and people hate Tony so much they give Woo the Nice Guy win.

 

OR 

 

Tony being gone after twice in a row, which means Woo would be the extra baggage at the end if someone had to pick between Woo and Tony.  Again, it's a case of him having pissed off the least jurors.

 

OR

 

They go after Woo and he starts actually trying to win immunities (which I get the feeling he could if he wanted to).

Edited by Kromm

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Wouldn't it be great if at the final tribal Woo suddenly had, like, a Minnesota accent, and no surfer slang at all, and was like "I've been playing a role this whole time to get you to underestimate me, I'm actually a diplomat in Washington"?  Sort of like how we were all hoping Phillip would drop the act at FTC on Redemption Island?

 

But unfortunately I don't think Woo is really game-aware enough to throw immunities, much less play Spicoli for 39 days.  I think he's been trying his hardest out there.  In one of his secret scenes he makes it clear that he thought he would win immunity the entire merge and that was pretty much his strategy.

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Mrs. Pootel thinks Spencer is totally getting a winner's edit but I'm not so sure.  I do feel pretty sure it's gonna come down between Spencer and Tony, especially now that they've just given Tony his 'get to the final free' idol.  Gun to my head, it'll be Spencer by a vote with Tony winning 'fan fave' after Jeffy tongue-bathes him liberally for his hard (read: telegenic and absurd) gameplay.  

 

Extra bonus guess: I hope you're all not sick of Tony the Cop, cuz I'm pretty sure his ridiculous duck-blinding secured him a return invite.  I don't totally hate him so I don't care.

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Tasha. She's super smart, is playing a great social game, and is proving to be an immunity challenge tiger. I think she's got enough immunity challenges left in her to win out to get to the final.

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I don't think its Tony or Spencer since usually the winner isn't criticized as much in the talking head interviews.  In that respect, I'd vote for Tasha, since no one has criticized her at all, but there have been comments about her good social game.  I'd also lay odds on Kass being one of the F3, but that's because she's a goat.  No one really likes her, especially those on the jury.  I don't expect Woo or Trish to make it to F3 because their interviewed so little, but they could sneak in as the 'coat-tail' rider.

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Well, hell. Now that Tasha's out, I've got nobody to root for and don't care which of the assholes (or spineless - WOO) left win. Phbbblllttt.

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Ok, so that's a change.  Well, if Spencer gets to the F3, if he wins the IC all the way through (as I think they'll vote him off the first chance they get or they should), I think he'll win.  Barring that, I'd have to guess Tony.  I just don't see Kass or Trish winning, Kass pissed off too many jury members and Trish seems like the typical non-entity coat rider that usually gets 0 votes.  Even if its Woo instead of Tony, those two still lose, imo, as overall, I think Woo has made a better impression than Trish.

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Just based on the editing, I'm about 99% convinced that Trish is taking this, and I think Kass is the only other one who really has a shot. Tony's moves are shown as bold and flashy but ultimately don't make a huge difference, whereas Trish is shown making huge moves that actually change the game, like pulling in Kass and stopping Jefra from flipping. Tony's moves get a lot more attention, though, which makes him a great distraction so that Kass/Trish winning can come as a surprising, but in hindsight justified win.

 

ETA: Jinxed it!

Edited by Xazeal

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Well, if its an F3, its either going to be Woo or Spencer.  My fear is it will end up as an F2 and the jury will have to hold their noses voting for either Kass or Tony, neither of whom they like, but it will come down to who they hate less.  In that case, I would guess Tony because I think they will respect his "big moves" more than Kass' and because I think Kass pissed them off more.

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Spencer FTW!  I'm probably cheating by seeing this thread when the finale is right around the corner, but as long as ChaosKass DOESN'T win, I'll be happy with any winner.  I'm thrilled that we finally had a season of newbies!

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