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This is (not) an Advantage: HII, Advantages and other Twists


ratgirlagogo
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I was sure we had a topic on this subject here, but I see that I am wrong.  I think we could use one since every single season there is some confusion about the HII -  even the basic rules of how it's used.

Here's a link to an archived topic on this subject from TWOP:

http://eb.archive.org/web/20140330020214/http://forums.televisionwithoutpity.com/topic/3190896-hidden-immunity-idols-throughout-the-years/

And some other basic information pages from SurvivorWiki:

http://survivor.wikia.com/wiki/Hidden_Immunity_Idol

http://survivor.wikia.com/wiki/Survivor_Rulebook

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And now to get the ball rolling I'll say that in my memory the rule that is least understood (because the show doesn't generally explain it) is that once you find a HII it becomes one of your personal items, and even if some other Survivor finds it where you hid it, it's still yours.   You can give it away, play it for someone else (unless there's some restriction for that specific HII) but it cannot be stolen from you.

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Since it's the anti-matter to the HII's matter, information about the Idol Nullifier should probably be here as well.

The Idol Nullifier (or IN as it will be referred to in the rest of this post) is brand new for S37, so we're not 100% sure how it will work.  But based on the rule sheet that came with it (as seen here in a screencap from when Carl first finds it: https://imgur.com/a/9qiVviI), and an interview with Peachy about this new twist (https://hollywoodlife.com/2018/09/26/survivor-idol-nullifier-david-vs-goliath-twist-season-37/), we can make an educated guess.

To begin with, the IN is used during the voting.  The person with the IN puts it into the urn when they vote.  The rules say that they must put it inside their vote, as it is reasonably assumed that the person they're voting for is the one they want to use the IN on.   There will most likely also be verbal confirmation of this fact as it happens.

After the voting is complete, Peachy gets the votes; seeing the IN in the urn and noting who it was played against.  When he returns to his podium, he will then ask if anyone wants to play an HII.  At this point, we diverge into 3 possibilities for how events will unfold.

  1. An HII is played for the target of the IN, either by themself or by someone else on their behalf.
  2. An HII is played for someone other than the target of the IN, either by themself or by someone else on their behalf.
  3. No HII is played.

In both cases 2 and 3, the IN is itself nullified, its power wasted.  Peachy will leave it in the urn when he reads the votes and will not remark on it at all (until the Finale and Reunion, and/or the Previouslies of the next episode).

In case 1, per the interview, he will first verify if the HII is real (since we know fakes can and do get played), and if it is real, he will verify whom it was played for.  At that point, he will reach into the urn and reveal the IN, and say that it was played for the same person, thus nullifying the HII and the votes for that person will count as normal.

 

Two things of further note.  First, both the rules and the interview clearly state that at no time will the name of the person who successfully played the IN be revealed by Peachy.  The user will be able to choose how anonymous their move is on their own.

Second, it is currently unknown if the IN would be able to nullify a second HII played for the same person, or even if a second one could be played for that person at all.  The relative newness of this twist precludes the current players considering some of these potentialities.

Edited by SVNBob
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As someone mentioned in the ep thread, there's no way someone would be able to play a second idol on the IN receiver because the IN is revealed after the votes and HIIs can't be played after the votes. 

Shit, I just remembered Tyler Perry Idols/the original idol, which can be played after the vote. So, never mind this lol.

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A Tyler Perry idol would be known to the viewers and could get around the Nullifier but I would be surprised if they would have such an idol in play with the Nullifier. Why bother with a nullifier when it can be easily circumvented?

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1 minute ago, ProfCrash said:

A Tyler Perry idol would be known to the viewers and could get around the Nullifier but I would be surprised if they would have such an idol in play with the Nullifier. Why bother with a nullifier when it can be easily circumvented?

Yea, good point. They likely wouldn't have both in play in the same season. I don't know though, they make some questionable decisions when it comes to the number of advantages/idols, so I could see them stupidly doing it.

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4 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

As someone mentioned in the ep thread, there's no way someone would be able to play a second idol on the IN receiver because the IN is revealed after the votes and HIIs can't be played after the votes. 

Unless the target had two idols (or access to two idols) and knew about the nullifier, so played them both at the same time. The question is a) would that work and b) is it legal in Survivor rules to play two idols for one person? It's a non-issue this season now but now that the nullifier is out there it could happen in a future season. 

I still think the idol nullifier is not nearly as tricky to play as it seems. You use it on the person you're voting for and it guarantees they go home. If they don't play an idol, or an idol is played for someone else, it's a bit of a bust, but you still got the result you wanted so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. 

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It could be an issue this season. If Dan finds another idol and has two he could, conceivably, play both for one person.

We don't know if they hid an idol for the merge tribe or just the steal a vote advantage. Normally there is an idol hidden. The three that were in play last week were from the original tribe locations, so there could be a merge idol hidden. Or maybe they will hide one now that two idols have been played.

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1 hour ago, MissEwa said:

Is it legal in Survivor rules to play two idols for one person?

Unknown; the ‘disabled idol’ concept has never been addressed in the rules before, because it’s never been an option in the game before.

 

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I still think the idol nullifier is not nearly as tricky to play as it seems. You use it on the person you're voting for and it guarantees they go home. If they don't play an idol, or an idol is played for someone else, it's a bit of a bust, but you still got the result you wanted so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. 

IMHO the Nullifier isn’t complicated at all; it’s a simple vote-count guarantor.

Idols? No idols? Doesn’t matter; you play the Nullifier on someone, you guarantee every vote against them counts.

Saves a lot of muss and fuss worrying about vote-splitting and such - which can be handy, especially if you’re on the minority side of the vote.

Edited by Nashville
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On 11/16/2018 at 1:45 PM, MissEwa said:

I still think the idol nullifier is not nearly as tricky to play as it seems. You use it on the person you're voting for and it guarantees they go home.

Only if they receive the most votes, regardless of any idol plays.  For example, if someone had hypothetically used the IN on Angelina in this last vote, John still would have been voted out.  But I would assume that if you're playing the IN, you're pretty sure that the person you're voting for is getting the most votes.

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13 hours ago, SVNBob said:

Only if they receive the most votes, regardless of any idol plays.  For example, if someone had hypothetically used the IN on Angelina in this last vote, John still would have been voted out.  But I would assume that if you're playing the IN, you're pretty sure that the person you're voting for is getting the most votes.

Absolutely. You'd use it on whoever your alliance is putting their votes on. In this last episode, assuming all the Davids were in on the plan, Carl wouldn't have used it on Angelina, because she wasn't the target. But then, if they'd used the nullifier, they wouldn't have had to split the votes - and still, they would have been counting on the Goliaths voting for Christian (and Davie correctly playing his idol). 

I think I said this in the thread for the episode where the nullifier was introduced, but this is really an advantage that works better from the top, unless it's paired with an idol (and even then, you need to play the idol correctly). If the Golaiths had it this week, they could have used it on Christian and there would have been nothing that could have been done. It would only have worked for the Davids, because they also had an idol that they played correctly. Had they not had that, they would have had to get the numbers the old fashioned way first - flipping someone, convincing the majority to split - and only then would it have been useful. If it's in the hands with the majority, there's no work to be done beyond making sure everyone stays tight and votes for the right target. 

Also, try as I might - I don't see any strategy that counters it (aside from, if it's allowed/works, playing two idols for one person and having only one be nullified). If an alliance has the numbers and wants to use it, their target is cooked. They can't bluff, trick, scam, anything their way out of it. If anyone can see a successful counter play - beyond just 'get some people to flip' - I'd love to hear it because it's been driving me nuts.

I don't know, but in most cases, I feel like the IN makes it harder to flip the game from the bottom, not easier, and I don't like it. 

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Yeah, once you said it (back when the nullifier was introduced) @MissEwa, I saw that what it really was was simply an item to make vote-splitting not necessary.  I think there's a lot of obfuscatory details that make that not so obvious, but that's exactly, and pretty much only, what it does.  If you know who you want to vote out, and you think they have an idol, you don't need to split the vote anymore, if you have the nullifier.

I don't see any way to get around it (I guess the vote-steal, kinda? if the numbers work out?) but I suppose that just means it's old-school Survivor once the nullifier is in play; you just gotta win immunity or bust your butt to put the target on someone else.  It's like when you don't have an idol, all you can do is convince people not to vote for you.  And I mean, hopefully, you have been doing that work for several episodes already, because it's probably too late if you're already on the chopping block.

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Speaking of the Vote Steal twist, let's expand on that.  It's actually one of three unique variations for a player having an "extra" vote at TC.  The three methods are (in chronological order of introduction):

  • The Extra vote.  Given as a special voting parchment.  Allows the owner to cast a second vote.  The simplest variant.
  • The Vote Steal.  Allows the owner to cast a second vote by voting instead of another player at one TC.
  • The Delayed Vote.  Allows the owner to save their vote (literally, by keeping their blank voting parchment) at one TC only to use it at a later one.
3 hours ago, KimberStormer said:

I don't see any way to get around [the IN] (I guess the vote-steal, kinda? if the numbers work out?)

I hadn't thought of the vote-steal as an IN-Nullifier, but it makes sense.  Given the rules of the IN, you can't use it if you're not allowed into the voting booth in the first place.  That's probably why they decided to include this particular variant of the extra vote.

Spoiler

Also, since there was apparently supposed to be 2 people on EI where the IN was found, perhaps the steal was supposed to be there at the same time.  There could have been two people on EI from opposing alliances with counter-advantages.

Or possibly, the IN and vote steal got reversed.  The steal was potentially originally meant for EI, where two people would know about it (or at least one would know about the actual advantage and the other would know that the other person had something), and the IN was supposed to come in at the merge.  Given that TPTB have been more obvious in recent seasons about using the tribal colors/symbols to signify hints or idol locations and the IN was inside a coconut with a blue symbol on it (with a blue tribe not yet in the game at the time; orange and purple to start, and green had just been introduced at the time.) makes me now wonder.  We do know that they had to change plans for the split and exiling with Bi's quit.

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2 minutes ago, SVNBob said:

I hadn't thought of the vote-steal as an IN-Nullifier, but it makes sense.  Given the rules of the IN, you can't use it if you're not allowed into the voting booth in the first place.  That's probably why they decided to include this particular variant of the extra vote.

  Reveal hidden contents

Also, since there was apparently supposed to be 2 people on EI where the IN was found, perhaps the steal was supposed to be there at the same time.  There could have been two people on EI from opposing alliances with counter-advantages.

Or possibly, the IN and vote steal got reversed.  The steal was potentially originally meant for EI, where two people would know about it (or at least one would know about the actual advantage and the other would know that the other person had something), and the IN was supposed to come in at the merge.  Given that TPTB have been more obvious in recent seasons about using the tribal colors/symbols to signify hints or idol locations and the IN was inside a coconut with a blue symbol on it (with a blue tribe not yet in the game at the time; orange and purple to start, and green had just been introduced at the time.) makes me now wonder.  We do know that they had to change plans for the split and exiling with Bi's quit.

I wonder if that is the case though. Could you have your vote stolen and be like 'I still have something to do, thanks Jeff'? I'd actually be surprised if they'd deliberately made the vote steal a way to prevent use of the nullifier. Also if your alliance needs it and you have it and have your vote stolen so can't use it, is there anything stopping you from passing it onto someone else right there at TC? 

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1 hour ago, Mark2 said:

I'm not sure if you have to vote for the person but, at the time they use it, nobody has actually played a HII.  So I'd bet the vote and nullifier are independent choices.  Under present circumstances, it seems prudent to choose the same person, though.

Bringing this over from the spec thread: I was going to ask if there were ANY circumstances - assuming, as we are, that you're nullified who the idol is played *for*, not necessarily who it's played *by*- someone would ever *not* use the idol nullifier for the person you're voting for, but then I thought of one. It's a pretty damn devious way to flip without getting your hands dirty. Vote with your supposed alliance, nullify the idol of the person the alliance you're hoping to join is voting for. It would only work if that alliance already has numbers, but it could happen. 

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Just now, MissEwa said:

I wonder if that is the case though. Could you have your vote stolen and be like 'I still have something to do, thanks Jeff'?

I seriously doubt it now that the thought is in my head. 

The rules of the IN say that to use it, it must be put inside the voting urn wrapped in the user's vote (signifying who it is being used on)The vote steal would block the IN in two ways.  As I said, you can't put the IN in the urn if you're not allowed into the voting booth.  And if someone else used your vote, you can't wrap the IN in it.

1 hour ago, MissEwa said:

Bringing this over from the spec thread: I was going to ask if there were ANY circumstances - assuming, as we are, that you're nullified who the idol is played *for*, not necessarily who it's played *by*- someone would ever *not* use the idol nullifier for the person you're voting for, but then I thought of one. It's a pretty damn devious way to flip without getting your hands dirty. Vote with your supposed alliance, nullify the idol of the person the alliance you're hoping to join is voting for. It would only work if that alliance already has numbers, but it could happen. 

Based on the wording of the rules, I don't think this can happen.  The rules state that you have to write down the name of the person you're using the IN on, meaning the person you're voting for.  Then you put the IN inside your vote before putting it in the urn.  So the vote and a played IN are, in essence, a single item in two parts.  It can't be split to target two separate people.

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2 hours ago, SVNBob said:

I seriously doubt it now that the thought is in my head. 

The rules of the IN say that to use it, it must be put inside the voting urn wrapped in the user's vote (signifying who it is being used on)The vote steal would block the IN in two ways.  As I said, you can't put the IN in the urn if you're not allowed into the voting booth.  And if someone else used your vote, you can't wrap the IN in it.

Nothing about the Nullifier states it is non-transferable, though - so in the exceedingly remote possibility of the IN holder being the victim of a vote steal, nothing’s stopping them from passing the IN to an alliance member who is voting.

 

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The rules state that you have to write down the name of the person you're using the IN on, meaning the person you're voting for. 

Not understanding why you make this assumption automatically; while I see almost no scenarios (one, maybe) where it makes good strategic sense to play the IN on somebody OTHER than your vote target, I haven’t seen anything to indicate parallel vote/IN play is a requirement.

 

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Then you put the IN inside your vote before putting it in the urn. 

Right; two separate, discrete pieces of parchment - the IN, and your vote - upon which two different names could conceivably be written, stupid though that may be.  And TPTB have never prevented players from making stupid moves - just ask Erik.  :)

 

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So the vote and a played IN are, in essence, a single item in two parts.  It can't be split to target two separate people.

Still not getting your logical jump here.  You’re talking two different pieces of parchment here - your vote, and the IN - and they remain separate entities, each technically capable of bearing a different name.  The fact they’re folded together doesn’t change that.

Unless, of course, you press them together REALLY REALLY hard.  :>

 

Purely as an FYI - a screenshot of the actual Idol Nullifier parchment:

E8F9AF44-E2AE-4E7C-9AAC-FAABCB40DB0B.thumb.jpeg.a8a2cae70db0087a9d34f3ee394e49dd.jpeg

Edited by Nashville
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It's a little ambiguous. I was assuming you write the name of the person you're using the nullifier for on the back of the nullifier, then fold it in your vote, but now I re-read it it just says 'when you vote, write the name of the person you want to block from using an idol', which could indicate you only write a name once - on your voting parchment - and then fold the nullifier into it, unmarked. 

But yeah, it's not not-transferable (poor Cirie), so if you're blocked from voting, you could just give it to someone else in your alliance. You might want to be secretive about it but really, at that point, why would you be? There's no way to counter it if people know it's being played so it doesn't really matter. 

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50 minutes ago, MissEwa said:

It's a little ambiguous.

 

42 minutes ago, Nashville said:

Yes it is - and I HATE it when Production is that lazy.

In the future, they should have Gabby write their clues and advantages :)

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On 11/20/2018 at 7:52 PM, MissEwa said:

It's a little ambiguous. I was assuming you write the name of the person you're using the nullifier for on the back of the nullifier, then fold it in your vote, but now I re-read it it just says 'when you vote, write the name of the person you want to block from using an idol', which could indicate you only write a name once - on your voting parchment - and then fold the nullifier into it, unmarked. 

But yeah, it's not not-transferable (poor Cirie), so if you're blocked from voting, you could just give it to someone else in your alliance. You might want to be secretive about it but really, at that point, why would you be? There's no way to counter it if people know it's being played so it doesn't really matter. 

The way to counter nullification is to make sure that people don't know about your idol/advantage in case it can be nullified.  Because people have to specify a name it can be misplayed.  Though if used specifically to target someone who you have the numbers to get out it's not that hard to use as a greater guarantee of success.  It still doesn't stop someone winning individual immunity of course.  Any knowledge that someone has a nullifier should really make them a target anyway, particularly if you have an idol. 

Christian telling his side he has an idol might not be a good long term strategy, in the long run it just makes him a bigger target for everyone.

Edited by amazingracefan
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On 11/22/2018 at 1:30 AM, KimberStormer said:

Mystery solved.  You write the name on the back of the nullifier, so that Jeff can turn it dramatically around. 

 

On 11/22/2018 at 1:30 AM, KimberStormer said:

How much did he love that?

Less than he would have if it weren't against one of the Alpha Males that he always slobbers over overhypes.

 

On 11/20/2018 at 6:39 AM, Nashville said:

Still not getting your logical jump here.  You’re talking two different pieces of parchment here - your vote, and the IN - and they remain separate entities, each technically capable of bearing a different name.  The fact they’re folded together doesn’t change that.

I was basing my assumption on a couple things.  First off, I was remembering the IN as being pure black, so any writing from the marker wouldn't show up on it.  Since it was actually gray, the black marker showed up perfectly clear.

More importantly, there is only a set number of voting parchments in the booth.  We know this from HvHvH and Lauren's Delayed Vote advantage.  Remember how the sequence of events went down in the episode where she decided to save her vote: she took a blank parchment and hid it on her person, and put the parchment-sized note about the advantage in the urn (per the rules written on it).  That vote ended as a tie, so Lauren had to go back into the booth to "vote again".  At which time, she pushed the extra blank parchment meant for her off the back of the podium, so that any voters after her, mainly the last one, wouldn't see there was an extra parchment and twig to something hinky going on.

Since I knew there wouldn't be an additional parchment to wrap the IN in, and I thought that the IN wouldn't be a legible surface to read any writing off of, I was assuming that the vote around it would be the only indicator of how to use the IN.  In hindsight, I was half right and half wrong.

Which means I also concede that it would be possible to split your vote and IN usage for different people, and that the low-key alliance flip is about the only reason to do that.

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2 hours ago, amazingracefan said:

The way to counter nullification is to make sure that people don't know about your idol/advantage in case it can be nullified.  Because people have to specify a name it can be misplayed.  Though if used specifically to target someone who you have the numbers to get out it's not that hard to use as a greater guarantee of success. 

Yeah it can be 'misplayed' in that it can be played when it doesn't need to be, but - assuming no-one does anything silly and plays it on someone they're not voting for - its target still goes home. So it's not countered so much as irrelevant. I'm more trying to figure out what options - if any - its intended target has to stay in the game. Like we have vote splits and misdirects as a measure to counter idols, but if you know someone's playing the IN on you, what can you do?

I like to think it's there to encourage old-school non-idol strategy, which is all you have in that scenario, but it feels a little super-idolish, in that there's no way to beat it if someone is going to play it. 

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4 hours ago, amazingracefan said:

The way to counter nullification is to make sure that people don't know about your idol/advantage in case it can be nullified. 

Just as a note - such secrecy to avoid nullification would only apply the play-idol-on-self use case (ex. Dan); it wouldn’t have any bearing or effect whatsoever on the play-idol-on-other use case (ex. Davie/Christian).

 

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I was basing my assumption on a couple things.  First off, I was remembering the IN as being pure black, so any writing from the marker wouldn't show up on it.  Since it was actually gray, the black marker showed up perfectly clear.

I was making the same mistake - more below.

 

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More importantly, there is only a set number of voting parchments in the booth.  We know this from HvHvH and Lauren's Delayed Vote advantage.  Remember how the sequence of events went down in the episode where she decided to save her vote: she took a blank parchment and hid it on her person, and put the parchment-sized note about the advantage in the urn (per the rules written on it).  That vote ended as a tie, so Lauren had to go back into the booth to "vote again".  At which time, she pushed the extra blank parchment meant for her off the back of the podium, so that any voters after her, mainly the last one, wouldn't see there was an extra parchment and twig to something hinky going on.

Since I knew there wouldn't be an additional parchment to wrap the IN in, and I thought that the IN wouldn't be a legible surface to read any writing off of, I was assuming that the vote around it would be the only indicator of how to use the IN.  In hindsight, I was half right and half wrong.

Which means I also concede that it would be possible to split your vote and IN usage for different people, and that the low-key alliance flip is about the only reason to do that.

We were both wrong - but in slightly different ways.  :)   We both (mistakenly) thought the hockey puck (aka the Idol Nullifier) was too dark on which to legibly write the IN target’s name, so we looked around for different media to communicate the IN selection.  Your assumption was that based on the lack of additional voting parchments, the player’s vote would do double duty as both a vote and as an IN selection - I got that, earlier.

Thing is, though, the the player with the IN already had an additional piece of parchment on them going in to the voting booth - the IN description sheet.  MY expectation was that the player would write the IN target’s name on the back of the IN description sheet, and either (a) fold it in with the separate parchment containing their vote, or (b) wrap it around the hockey puck (In the case of (a), the puck would simply be a heads-up to Probst that the first piece of parchment in the (Production-arranged) vote urn would be the IN specification).  Either way, the use of two different pieces of parchment would permit the option of differing vote/IN names.

I like the way it worked out, though - and I’d purely love to know what was the VERY FIRST THOUGHT to go through the minds of the players not in the know when they first saw Peachy waving around what appeared to be a hockey puck.  ;>

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Question about the vote steal: how does it work if there's a revote? Say, for example, the Davids hadn't played the nullifer this time, but still voted for Dan, and the Goliaths had all voted for Christian and not split. Nick steals Allison's vote, so it's 6-5 to the Davids. Dan plays his idol, so Christian plays his, meaning all votes are nullified and there's - presumably - a revote. Does Nick get Allison's vote again? 

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9 hours ago, MissEwa said:

Question about the vote steal: how does it work if there's a revote? Say, for example, the Davids hadn't played the nullifer this time, but still voted for Dan, and the Goliaths had all voted for Christian and not split. Nick steals Allison's vote, so it's 6-5 to the Davids. Dan plays his idol, so Christian plays his, meaning all votes are nullified and there's - presumably - a revote. Does Nick get Allison's vote again? 

 

7 hours ago, ProfCrash said:

I am not sure but I would assume that Nick would keep the vote and that it is stolen for the entire tribal

I would have to concur, based on the Delayed Vote advantage.  As I stated above, when Lauren chose to exercise the first half of that advantage in HvHvH, there was a tie vote.  She had to go "re-vote" but since she didn't actually vote the first time, she didn't vote the second time either.  That would indicate to me that advantages that change an individual's voting status are in effect for the remainder of the TC they are used in.

This would not apply to the basic extra vote since that's just one extra parchment.  Which is why the people with that advantage use it when there's an even number of contestants left, in order to ensure there's not a tie and the extra vote isn't "wasted".

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This is what I assumed @ProfCrash and @SVNBob, glad I'm not alone. 

Coming back to the idol nullifier - just because it's new and interesting and I am fascinated by the way it's been received - I think I'm of the opinion that while it was played "correctly" in this episode (and it was great fun to watch) it wasn't played strategically. Someone mentioned in the episode thread that they wished the Davids had saved the nullifer and just voted out Mike, and I think I agree.

When Carl etc. were talking about how they needed to figure out who was going to play the idol, and lure them into doing it to make sure, it occurred to me that if they could do that, then the better move was to save the nullifier and vote for someone else, especially at this point in the game where you have several options. It's more risky, but not by a whole lot, depending on how certain you are (and in this case, that risk is mitigated by the fact that they also have an unsuspected idol and a good idea of who the other side is gunning for, should things go awry). 

And then that got me thinking that, at least until, say F7/6ish, when the numbers are a lot tighter and there's a lot less room for error, the best time to play the nullifier is actually when you don't know who has the idol (but, I guess, are reasonably sure someone does). If you know - or you're almost certain and feel confident you can play it so they feel threatened enough to use it - you have options. If you don't, you're flying blind, and the nullifier protects your vote no matter who has the idol. 

An exception to that would be, I guess, if there's a very specific person that you need to get out and you may not get another chance - a Joey Amazing type, who'll likely go on an immunity tear, or a Boston Rob head-of-the-snake that is holding a whole alliance together - then you vote for them and play the nullifier, whether you're 100% sure they have an idol or not. But if you're just in 'us vs them and we need to pick someone' mode, then it's smarter to try to figure out who has the idol first and work around it another way, and if you can't, then use the nullifier. 

Edited by MissEwa
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I think you have to look at the consequences of getting this vote wrong, i.e. a successful idol play on whichever Goliath they targeted:  Nick's vote steal is wasted, Davids are down two, and the nullifier is worthless in the hands of the minority (which makes it unique in the annals of Survivor advantages, as far as I know).  Maybe Christian could also use his idol correctly (in which case they have still used two of their advantages, and kept only the one that is useless), and maybe they could keep their stolen vote on a revote, lotta maybes, but if you use the vote steal and the nullifier you know for sure you win this week, and it's a huge turning point in the game, when the Davids become no longer the minority.  I don't know how often you get such an opportunity, if you're Carl.

I guess you could say, eventually it would be nice to have when they have to get rid of Christian, since they know Christian has an idol, but that seems too cold-blooded a calculation to bring to these tight-knit Davids, a difficult sell, and also again sort of counting unhatched chickens when you don't know if you're really going to come out on top this week or not.

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11 hours ago, KimberStormer said:

I think you have to look at the consequences of getting this vote wrong, i.e. a successful idol play on whichever Goliath they targeted:  Nick's vote steal is wasted, Davids are down two, and the nullifier is worthless in the hands of the minority (which makes it unique in the annals of Survivor advantages, as far as I know).  Maybe Christian could also use his idol correctly (in which case they have still used two of their advantages, and kept only the one that is useless), and maybe they could keep their stolen vote on a revote, lotta maybes, but if you use the vote steal and the nullifier you know for sure you win this week, and it's a huge turning point in the game, when the Davids become no longer the minority.  I don't know how often you get such an opportunity, if you're Carl.

It would have been more risky, this is true. And yeah, as fas as I can tell, the nullifier is pretty much useless from a minority position (two exceptions being if they have a vote steal that gives them the numbers or if they also play an idol correctly - things that this particular group of players have shown themselves capable of). I can see why they made the decision they did. 

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11 hours ago, KimberStormer said:

I guess you could say, eventually it would be nice to have when they have to get rid of Christian, since they know Christian has an idol, but that seems too cold-blooded a calculation to bring to these tight-knit Davids, a difficult sell, and also again sort of counting unhatched chickens when you don't know if you're really going to come out on top this week or not.

Not just cold-blooded on the part of the Davids to target Christian at this juncture, but also strategically unwise.  The Goliaths have shown even those OG* members somewhat inclined to work with the Davids are absolutely NOT dependable; they have demonstrated disloyalty to any form of cross-pollination alliance, and they have done so repeatedly.

The remaining Davids throwing Christian to the wolves will probably be a necessity on down the road - frankly, they’re idiots if they don’t - but I think it would be smarter of them to keep the David group intact until the game-playing Goliaths are reduced down to two.  This would allow the Davids to maintain control even in the event of a split-vote scenario.  If the Davids were to split their votes 3-2 and their primary (3-vote majority-split) target ends up with Idol protection, then the result would almost certainly be a two-vote tie (two unanimous Goliath votes for a David vs. the split-minority two David votes for a Goliath) - and the Davids would break the tie in their favor on the resulting re-vote.

 

* Original Goliath - and no, I couldn’t resist.

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7 hours ago, Nashville said:

The remaining Davids throwing Christian to the wolves will probably be a necessity on down the road - frankly, they’re idiots if they don’t - but I think it would be smarter of them to keep the David group intact until the game-playing Goliaths are reduced down to two.

Oh I agree, and I didn't mean using the nullifier on Christian now, I meant keeping it to get rid of him later -- but I think even talking about that, even if everyone is thinking it, would undermine that plucky David Spirit of we're-all-in-this-together which is keeping them surprisingly cohesive.  And since Carl told everyone about it, I feel like he'd have to explain his reasoning for not using it.

IOW I don't think it's actually too cold-blooded, I just think it seems that way, politically. 

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5 hours ago, KimberStormer said:

Oh I agree, and I didn't mean using the nullifier on Christian now, I meant keeping it to get rid of him later -- but I think even talking about that, even if everyone is thinking it, would undermine that plucky David Spirit of we're-all-in-this-together which is keeping them surprisingly cohesive.  And since Carl told everyone about it, I feel like he'd have to explain his reasoning for not using it.

IOW I don't think it's actually too cold-blooded, I just think it seems that way, politically. 

Absolutely - and IMHO Production got luckier than shit with the way things are shaking out in this season.  To date, the repeatedly demonstrated inability of Goliath members to engage in cross-tribe alliance with any measurable degree of good faith leaves the Davids with few viable strategic options other than to cling to their original tribal affiliation - which gives Production one helluva shot at revving up the RPMs on a “David Loyalty” spin.

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On 11/25/2018 at 5:53 AM, Nashville said:

Absolutely - and IMHO Production got luckier than shit with the way things are shaking out in this season.  To date, the repeatedly demonstrated inability of Goliath members to engage in cross-tribe alliance with any measurable degree of good faith leaves the Davids with few viable strategic options other than to cling to their original tribal affiliation - which gives Production one helluva shot at revving up the RPMs on a “David Loyalty” spin.

Agreed on your first point.  And I hope the luck - in the form of David's taking the majority - holds out. 

As to crossing tribal lines, certain Goliaths did cooperate in voting out Natalia and Natalie, and both Alec and Mike tipped the David's off about the Christian vote.  It's ironic that the first time a few Goliaths (Alison, Alec, Kara) intended to show loyalty to the Davids in the form of a TC vote, their plan was destroyed by Nick's vote steal.  And then they stabbed the Davids in the back by proceeding with the plan that they had reason to believe would result in voting out Christian.

I'd have more faith in Angelina voting with the Davids at this point.  Self-preservation is keeping the Davids together, and now that same motivation will drive her to them, I suspect.  She better step up her search for a HII.

Edited by Mark2
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49 minutes ago, Mark2 said:

As to crossing tribal lines, certain Goliaths did cooperate in voting out Natalia and Natalie, and both Alec and Mike tipped the David's off about the Christian vote. 

IMHO both Mike’s and Alec’s disclosures were FAR less about addressing a threat to their Strikeforce alliance, and far more towards softening the blow (and maintaining plausible deniability) of an evict-Christian TC vote blindside - which both Mike and Alec had already assumed was a fait accompli.  I really don’t think the notion of Christian actually surviving the vote had ever occurred to either as an option to be taken seriously.

 

Quote

It's ironic that the first time a few Goliaths (Alison, Alec, Kara) intended to show loyalty to the Davids in the form of a TC vote, their plan was destroyed by Nick's vote steal. 

Disagree; all the TC head-wagging between Alec and Kara was going on after Nick played his steal-a-vote.  I’m 100% certain Alec and Kara initially absolutely planned to vote out Christian at that TC.  Once Nick played this vote steal, though - and played it against Alison, Alec and Kara’s partner in crime in their not-so-allied alliance with the Davids - Alec and Kara both knew SOMETHING was up. Stealing Alison’s vote was a clear and direct shot across all AKA’s collective bows.

So - Alec and Kara’s last-minute vote switch was more Operation CYA than loyalty play.  ;>

 

Quote

And then they stabbed the Davids in the back by proceeding with the plan that they had reason to believe would result in voting out Christian.

Whoops!  THAT didn’t work out too well for them, did it now?  :>

Edited by Nashville
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1 hour ago, Nashville said:

IMHO both Mike’s and Alec’s disclosures were FAR less about addressing a threat to their Strikeforce alliance, and far more towards softening the blow (and maintaining plausible deniability) of an evict-Christian TC vote blindside - which both Mike and Alec had already assumed was a fait accompli.  I really don’t think the notion of Christian actually surviving the vote had ever occurred to either as an option to be taken seriously.

Agree.

1 hour ago, Nashville said:

Disagree; all the TC head-wagging between Alec and Kara was going on after Nick played his steal-a-vote.  I’m 100% certain Alec and Kara initially absolutely planned to vote out Christian at that TC.  Once Nick played this vote steal, though - and played it against Alison, Alec and Kara’s partner in crime in their not-so-allied alliance with the Davids - Alec and Kara both knew SOMETHING was up. Stealing Alison’s vote was a clear and direct shot across all AKA’s collective bows.

I figured they had no contingency plan for a vote steal and can't imagine them saying in front of the others at TC "hey, let's actually vote for Christian after all." So to me, the nod could only signify an affirmation of their planned vote.  I wonder if we'll find out this Wednesday...

1 hour ago, Nashville said:

Whoops!  THAT didn’t work out too well for them, did it now?  :>

LOL it did not.

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3 hours ago, Mark2 said:

I figured they had no contingency plan for a vote steal and can't imagine them saying in front of the others at TC "hey, let's actually vote for Christian after all." So to me, the nod could only signify an affirmation of their planned vote.  I wonder if we'll find out this Wednesday...

My personal impression:

  1. Contextually speaking, Davie’s nuke of Goliath’s plan last TC to vote out Christian with his play of an idol for Christian shook the Goliaths - hard; as a result, their paranoia going into this TC was simply humongous.
  2. Despite their earlier assurances to the Davids of collaborating on a Dan/Angelina vote split (Kara’s plan), Alec/Kara/Angelina went into TC with every intention of staying Goliath Strong and voting out Christian.
  3. When Nick stole Alison’s vote, though...?  That paranoia rocket was headed to the troposphere, and the Goliaths suddenly found themselves doing the backstroke in a sea of chaos.  Obviously the Davids were up to something; was Christian about to get idol’ed out and the vote flipped - again?  Why had Alison been singled out for a vote steal instead of Dan, or Mike, or Angelina?  Was Alison the target, or was that a bit of misdirection?  Should an idol be played?  If so, for whom?  Enquiring Goliaths want to know!
  4. Alec and Kara were doubly dumbfounded; to continue the analogy - if every other Goliath was backstroking the sea of chaos, A and K were doing the dog paddle and trying to keep their heads above water.  Something was going on, they didn’t have a fucking clue what, the chief instigator (Nick) was someone they thought they had a vote agreement with (an agreement they were flipping on, BTW), and his target was one of the potential flip-ees.  Was this Nick’s way of communicating his own vote of no-confidence in AKA - and right smack dab in the middle of Tribal Council, no less?  Was their double-dealing about to be outed to everybody, Davids and Goliaths alike?  With Alison’s vote negated, AKA’s original (fake) plan with the Davids was obviously out the window - but what new plan had taken its place?  Was Alison (or Alec or Kara, even) being targeted because their deception had been found out? What should Alec and Kara do?
  5. Overwhelmed by confusion and indecision - and panic that yet another TC vote was going David’s way - Alec and Kara fell back to what in the heat of the moment probably looked like the safest of all options: keeping to the plan they’d made earlier with their David contingent, so they could make at least a surface claim of fidelity to the inter-tribal alliance.

In terms of AKA maintaining and credibility with the Davids, though...?  I suspect THAT ship has sailed - not to mention, additional Goliath paranoia over the Angelina votes is probably cracking a bigger hole in the stratospheric ozone layer than aerosol cans ever thought of.  

In other words, Alec and Kara chose poorly.  ;)

Edited by Nashville
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On 11/16/2018 at 1:58 AM, SVNBob said:

Second, it is currently unknown if the IN would be able to nullify a second HII played for the same person, or even if a second one could be played for that person at all. 

This is no longer the case. 

A new article from Dalton Ross on EW.com is just about this question  From the article:
 

Quote

 

So, Jeff, if Dan still had his second idol, could he have played it after the first one was nullified and still been safe?

“You are correct, sir!” confirms Probst. “The Nullifier blocks the use of one specific idol played for one specific person. If Dan had a second idol, he could have played it, and barring another Nullifier with his name on it, he would have been safe....."

 

 

On 11/16/2018 at 9:05 AM, peachmangosteen said:

As someone mentioned in the ep thread, there's no way someone would be able to play a second idol on the IN receiver because the IN is revealed after the votes and HIIs can't be played after the votes. 

According to what Peachy says in the article, this is not the case.  HIIs can be played after the IN is revealed.  The window remains open until Peachy starts reading the votes.

On 11/16/2018 at 1:45 PM, MissEwa said:

Unless the target had two idols (or access to two idols) and knew about the nullifier, so played them both at the same time. The question is a) would that work and b) is it legal in Survivor rules to play two idols for one person?

And the answers to these are a) it would, but wouldn't be necessary since the 2nd HII can be played later, and b) apparently so.

This also means that we now know what the IN-Nullifier is...a 2nd HII.

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I know that's what he said but it just seems weird to me that a second idol could be played.  That pretty much will devalue the Nullifier completely.  I presume it doesn't have to be the same person playing two idols.  Dan uses his idol, Nullifier is revealed.  Then someone else from his alliance has an idol and uses it on Dan since presumably all the votes from the other side are going on Dan.  Nullifier is negated.

So in the future, alliances might be saving their idols until the Nullifier is revealed.

The strange thing to me is that a regular idol gets additional powers (the ability to hold it in reserve) after a Nullifier is used.  It would be obvious that the target for eviction is the person the Nullifier was played.  So the regular idol used in a post-Nullifier setting almost becomes like a Tyler Perry Idol Lite.  The Tyler Perry Idol was roundly criticised for being too powerful, which is why in later seasons (the one with Tao refusing to use his on those two jerks) two halves of an idol had to be combined to give the Super Idol post-vote power.

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2 hours ago, SVNBob said:

According to what Peachy says in the article, this is not the case.  HIIs can be played after the IN is revealed.  The window remains open until Peachy starts reading the votes.

Based on Jeff's comment: . For Dan to have been safe, he would have had to play two idols, on himself before the urn is opened. The nullifier would nullifiy the first idol but not the second. There is only one nullifier in play, so it nullifies the first idol and not the second. Why? The Nullifier is read once Jeff is reading the votes. He has to remove the nullifier from the voting urn.

So there was no way for Dan to save himself because he only had one idol when Carl played the nullifier. Dan would have had to save the idol he played on Angelina, and handed Jeff two idols, played from himself. And there was no reason for Dan to know that because there was no information about the nullifier so there was no reason to expect it to happen.

Quote

As to Dan’s belief that he would have had to play both idols at once to escape nullification, Probst notes that “He certainly could do this, but there would be no need since he could wait and play it after a Nullifier was played. This is the great thing about the Nullifier: Its mere existence adds another layer of uncertainty to the game.”

OK, so if Jeff is right, then I am wrong and there is no reason to believe Jeff isn't right. But then would someone with two nullifiers be able to play the nullifier after the player played the second idol? That would make no sense.

I am with Nashville, I am not certain Jeff is right about this.

Quote

So if you hadn’t used your other idol in the previous Tribal Council, could you have then used that second one after your first one had been nullified and then you would have been okay?
I don’t think so, because Jeff asked for an idol, and I played an idol. And then he starts reading… I’ve never seen him take an idol after he started reading out of the urn, so I would imagine that it wouldn’t have worked that way, but you’ll have to ask Jeff about that to get a correct answer, but in mind it wouldn’t have worked that way. I think you would have to have played two at the beginning. You would have to have known there was a Nullifier. That’s how I would imagine it and I would have never known there was a Nullifier so would not have played two idols.

From Dan's interview. Dan did not think he would be able to play a second idol after the nullifier was played.

Edited by ProfCrash
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1 hour ago, SVNBob said:

This is no longer the case. 

A new article from Dalton Ross on EW.com is just about this question  From the article:
 

 

According to what Peachy says in the article, this is not the case.  HIIs can be played after the IN is revealed.  The window remains open until Peachy starts reading the votes.

And the answers to these are a) it would, but wouldn't be necessary since the 2nd HII can be played later, and b) apparently so.

This also means that we now know what the IN-Nullifier is...a 2nd HII.

Of course, there’s always the possibility Peachy was caught flat-footed by an unanticipated question and was talking out of his ass....  ;>

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2 hours ago, Nashville said:

Of course, there’s always the possibility Peachy was caught flat-footed by an unanticipated question and was talking out of his ass....  ;>

Yeah, it seems ridiculous to me that this is the actual rule. As @blackwing notes above it basically turns a second idol into a super-idol (barring an alliance doing something ridiculously stupid like not voting for the nullifier target). I kind of get that if you were to play two idols for yourself when Jeff first asks, then only one would be null, but in that case... yeah, it does seem ridiculously unfair that they weren't told about the nullifier and that this was possible, especially given production knew that someone HAD a second idol. 

And I do think it's the kind of thing that should be clarified by production. Carl's parchment completely skipped over any sort of second-idol scenario, so even if the existence of the nullifier had leaked out of the David camp, it's still likely it wouldn't occur to Dan that he could play two idols. Given I don't think the players were clear on this, the leaked information could either be 'it nullifies an idol played for whoever they choose' vs. 'it nullifies idols played for whoever they choose' - literally a letter difference but a world apart in what it means for the holder of two idols. 

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The first HII is played before the votes are read. Peachy tells everyone it's an HII, but then pulls out the Nullifier and cancels it. There's still time to play a second HII after, in response to that.

 

Peachy knows there's a Nullifier in the urn before he returns with the votes, because Peachy and the producers look through the parchments and put them in the most dramatic order for revealing before he goes back to the Tribal Council area. So there's plenty of time for him to knowingly pause and allow any and all HII's to be played before he starts reading off parchments.

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I get it - or I get what the rules are according to Jeff. But I don't like it. Thankfully, I think it'll lead to super-conservative idol play - why play an idol on someone else when you might need two on yourself later? - and they'll scrap it soon enough. 

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1 hour ago, Charlesman said:

The first HII is played before the votes are read. Peachy tells everyone it's an HII, but then pulls out the Nullifier and cancels it. There's still time to play a second HII after, in response to that.

 

Peachy knows there's a Nullifier in the urn before he returns with the votes, because Peachy and the producers look through the parchments and put them in the most dramatic order for revealing before he goes back to the Tribal Council area. So there's plenty of time for him to knowingly pause and allow any and all HII's to be played before he starts reading off parchments.

Yes, that’s what he said in the interview.  But do the players know that?  I don’t think it was explained to them, considering that in Dan’s interview it is abundantly clear that he was confused as to when or how he would have played his second idol had he hung onto it.

1 hour ago, MissEwa said:

I get it - or I get what the rules are according to Jeff. But I don't like it. Thankfully, I think it'll lead to super-conservative idol play - why play an idol on someone else when you might need two on yourself later? - and they'll scrap it soon enough. 

Yep.  I fully agree.  No one will ever want to risk playing an idol until they (or their alliance) have two.  We will see less idol use in the early parts of the game, which will detract from Jeffy’s beloved “blindsides”.  

We will probably get one season like this.   Then the next season the idiots in charge will make it the complete opposite and it will be Idols Galore. There will be so many idols it’ll be as if bats were dropping them from the heavens and the only way you won’t get one is if you are a complete maroon.  This will result in a terrible season.   

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21 hours ago, Nashville said:

My personal impression:

  1. Contextually speaking, Davie’s nuke of Goliath’s plan last TC to vote out Christian with his play of an idol for Christian shook the Goliaths - hard; as a result, their paranoia going into this TC was simply humongous.
  2. Despite their earlier assurances to the Davids of collaborating on a Dan/Angelina vote split (Kara’s plan), Alec/Kara/Angelina went into TC with every intention of staying Goliath Strong and voting out Christian.
  3. When Nick stole Alison’s vote, though...?  That paranoia rocket was headed to the troposphere, and the Goliaths suddenly found themselves doing the backstroke in a sea of chaos.  Obviously the Davids were up to something; was Christian about to get idol’ed out and the vote flipped - again?  Why had Alison been singled out for a vote steal instead of Dan, or Mike, or Angelina?  Was Alison the target, or was that a bit of misdirection?  Should an idol be played?  If so, for whom?  Enquiring Goliaths want to know!
  4. Alec and Kara were doubly dumbfounded; to continue the analogy - if every other Goliath was backstroking the sea of chaos, A and K were doing the dog paddle and trying to keep their heads above water.  Something was going on, they didn’t have a fucking clue what, the chief instigator (Nick) was someone they thought they had a vote agreement with (an agreement they were flipping on, BTW), and his target was one of the potential flip-ees.  Was this Nick’s way of communicating his own vote of no-confidence in AKA - and right smack dab in the middle of Tribal Council, no less?  Was their double-dealing about to be outed to everybody, Davids and Goliaths alike?  With Alison’s vote negated, AKA’s original (fake) plan with the Davids was obviously out the window - but what new plan had taken its place?  Was Alison (or Alec or Kara, even) being targeted because their deception had been found out? What should Alec and Kara do?
  5. Overwhelmed by confusion and indecision - and panic that yet another TC vote was going David’s way - Alec and Kara fell back to what in the heat of the moment probably looked like the safest of all options: keeping to the plan they’d made earlier with their David contingent, so they could make at least a surface claim of fidelity to the inter-tribal alliance.

In terms of AKA maintaining and credibility with the Davids, though...?  I suspect THAT ship has sailed - not to mention, additional Goliath paranoia over the Angelina votes is probably cracking a bigger hole in the stratospheric ozone layer than aerosol cans ever thought of.  

In other words, Alec and Kara chose poorly.  ;)

1, 3 are good reads, I take away about the same thoughts.  I should have mentioned RE #2 (pretty sure it was a different thread I posted this in) that I kind of thought the editors may have swapped the order or taken AKA out of context when they were talking about going Goliath strong.

A bit on 4 - I think it's safe to say Alison was freaking out the most.  I read that she was constantly checking her pulse and fighting back tears as everybody else voted.  Nick picked her in part because she's fun to troll :D

At first when I watched TC (distracted) I read Dan's smugness as being indicative of the attitude of the whole former Goliath tribe, but on re-watch I really picked up more of a conciliatory tone from Alec before Nick busted out the vote steal.  It was a good strategy IMO (the talking part, not vote part), but I think they alienated both sides with that one.

To use another analogy, the water is now spilling over into the boiler room of the Goliath and we're about to see who gets off and who goes down with the ship.

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Seemed like the best thread for this on a first glance, since fire-making F4 is kind of a twist, but if this goes somewhere else I wouldn't be surprised:

On ‎12‎/‎28‎/‎2018 at 7:36 AM, Bryce Lynch said:

I think I like the fire making challenge.  It makes it much more possible for a real threat at FTC to make it without winning immunity, which can make for more competitive and interesting FTC.  It might also be cool to incorporate fire making into one or more reward or immunity challenges, particularly pre-merge team challenges.  They could end a challenge with a fire instead of a puzzle.   

 

I disagree, as I'm sure you know.  To speak a little more harshly than I feel, if you need immunity to get to the end you're not that great a Survivor player.  (I don't mean that to take away from the great people who have won final immunity and then won the game; I just hope they had a contingency plan.)  The best way IMO to win Survivor is to be taken to final 2 and then win, like Richard Hatch, Parvati, or even (I hate to admit) Tony.  (Really, Rich did the best thing ever in the very first season, deliberately throwing the FIC to get taken and win....how can you ever top it)  To get taken in an F3 is far less amazing but still good.  If you're smart enough, and have planned well enough, to where the other person(s) feels they need or want to take you, and then you beat them, you are what a Survivor player ought to be.

Now this could still happen under the current regime -- if Angelina had won, for example -- but it seems to me the chance nature of the fire-making challenge just totally changes the entire dynamic and it's not anything like a real vote anyway.  If I were on the jury (this is just me talking, not what I think the jury "should" do) anyone who made fire would be automatically disqualified, no matter what I thought of them, just like anyone who came back from Redemption Island or Lil from Pearl Islands: if you can't survive the vote, you are ipso facto not the Sole Survivor in my eyes.  This is me speaking like some kind of austere Survivor ascetic but to me voting is the whole game.

They used to use fire-making in challenges a lot!  Memorable examples are Susie coming out of nowhere to demolish everyone in fire-making in Gabon, and my beloved Cao Boi doing a crazy, and crazy effective, fire-making dance in Cook Islands.

Edited by KimberStormer
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Since it seems like fire at F4 is here to stay, I have a "solution" or two that might make this twist more palatable.

13 minutes ago, KimberStormer said:

They used to use fire-making in challenges a lot! 

Even going back to Borneo and the one IC Richard won (and seemingly right when he needed to).  So, let's make the fire-making challenge into the F4 IC.  Set up 4 stations at TC instead of just the two.  But in a slight reversal, the last to create a fire that raises the flag joins the jury.  (And maybe there's a reward for the first to finish, like a bonus cash prize equal to 3rd place money.)  By this method, all of the F3 "earn" their way in; no one gets taken, and it's a fair fight all around.

 

Alternately, instead of the winner of the F4IC "taking" anyone to the finals, all 3 remaining contestants compete in fire-making.  Again, last to succeed loses, but the other 2 are then on "equal footing"; possibly a little behind the person that won the IC and didn't have to make fire, but relatively even otherwise.

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