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S38: Spoilers & Speculation


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Am I the only one who loves a bitter jury?  I can't stand these kumbaya juries who turn around at final tribal council and are all "Whoa, gotta respect the gameplay, dude.  Right on!"   Yeah, respect the gameplay, but hold their feet to the fire and make 'em sweat while forcing them to own their dirty tricks and lies.  Then vote for them if you want. 

I think Ponderosa mellows them out too much.  I want more edge to my juries.  I want the rat and snake speech back!

So if this EoE game twist brings on a bitter jury, then I'm all for it.

Oh, and I hope Chris does battle his way back in.  I think he'd make a great returnee 'cuz he'll still be stinging from that blindside where he proved himself to be ten times a fool.  If he comes back, he'll be loaded for bear, and he'll have the challenge skills to back it up for individual immunity.

And he's pretty.

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Aubry was rumored to have made the merge, so any spoilers that were out there got blown up tonight.  Unless Chris in the red buff really is misdirect and he doesn't come back from EOE, but that seems to be the only solid one so far.  And he does seem the most likely to return of the group out there.  Wendy was supposed to be a pre-merge boot/EOE quit.  We'll see if that holds up.

I think Kama's sit out bench was near Manu's flag and that's why it was thought Kama lost the first IC.

Edited by LadyChatts
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1 hour ago, LadyChatts said:

Aubry was rumored to have made the merge, so any spoilers that were out there got blown up tonight.  Unless Chris in the red buff really is misdirect and he doesn't come back from EOE, but that seems to be the only solid one so far.  And he does seem the most likely to return of the group out there.  Wendy was supposed to be a pre-merge boot/EOE quit.  We'll see if that holds up.

I think Kama's sit out bench was near Manu's flag and that's why it was thought Kama lost the first IC.

Remember that Keith can use his advantage of an extra 3 knots?... against Chris in the challenge to get back in.

Edited by TVFan1
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2 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Aubry was rumored to have made the merge, so any spoilers that were out there got blown up tonight.  Unless Chris in the red buff really is misdirect and he doesn't come back from EOE,

Both could still happen.  It is still believed, based on the original Ghost Island brief (which was the origin of EoE), that there will be two chances to return to the game; one at the merge, and one around F6.  Chris could lose this first chance to Aubry, thanks to Keith's knotty advantage, but still return on the second opportunity.

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2 hours ago, SVNBob said:

Both could still happen.  It is still believed, based on the original Ghost Island brief (which was the origin of EoE), that there will be two chances to return to the game; one at the merge, and one around F6.  Chris could lose this first chance to Aubry, thanks to Keith's knotty advantage, but still return on the second opportunity.

I keep forgetting that two players are coming back.  Someone at Sucks just had an interesting theory as well.  That Chris maybe returns to EOE after losing the first re-entry challenge, still loses the second re-entry challenge, but he's still counted as making the merge so that could be why he gets a buff.  At this point I'd say he or Aubry are the two strongest contenders to return.  Wendy is pretty strong in challenges, too. 

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Yeah so someone posted some new "spoilers" over on reddit tonight from a source who he claims has gotten a lot of things right but some things wrong as well. So needless to say these should be taken with a huge grain of salt. I was hesitant to even post these here but what the hell there doesn't appear to be many accurate spoilers at all this season and it will give us something to talk about atleast and until these are proven wrong (which could be as early as next episodes depending on who the returnee from EOE  is.  So anyway, here you go

F3 is Lauren, Victoria and one of the EOE returnees

Both returnees from EOE are men

Only 1 idol will be found by a man this season

a player will win 3 immunity challenges in a row

That's it.

Edited by LanceM
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I can see it going one of two ways for Victoria based on her edit so far.  Either she gets way too overconfident and gets blindsided out, or does the backstabbing and blindsiding of her allies and makes enemies.  Her edit right now is kinda of puzzling lol

I’m still going to believe that the eventual winner is from EOE and that the ending is controversial because of that.  Considering how the first part of EOE went, I can see others sticking it out knowing what the rules are now.  

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10 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I can see it going one of two ways for Victoria based on her edit so far.  Either she gets way too overconfident and gets blindsided out, or does the backstabbing and blindsiding of her allies and makes enemies.  Her edit right now is kinda of puzzling lol

I’m still going to believe that the eventual winner is from EOE and that the ending is controversial because of that.  Considering how the first part of EOE went, I can see others sticking it out knowing what the rules are now.  

Wasn't there a rumor or spoiler about Lauren blindsiding Kelley or something? I remember there was talk about that in the preseason.

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1 hour ago, TVFan1 said:

Wasn't there a rumor or spoiler about Lauren blindsiding Kelley or something? I remember there was talk about that in the preseason.

I had heard that, and then that Kelley was idoled out but they didn’t know by whom.  It’s believed she went deep because she had chipped nail polish and wanted to eat when she got home.  There was a rumor Eric was going to be the other EOE returnee but not sure what’s true anymore.  I can believe Wendy quit EOE and that someone from there wins, though.

But people assumed Joe was an early boot because he looked like he lost zero weight.  That’s not to say Joe still couldn’t be an early merge boot, but it would be the most shocking thing ever for him to quit EOE prematurely and go to Ponderosa to scarf burgers.

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12 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I can see it going one of two ways for Victoria based on her edit so far.  Either she gets way too overconfident and gets blindsided out, or does the backstabbing and blindsiding of her allies and makes enemies.  Her edit right now is kinda of puzzling lol

I’m still going to believe that the eventual winner is from EOE and that the ending is controversial because of that.  Considering how the first part of EOE went, I can see others sticking it out knowing what the rules are now.  

Right now, from what I've seen so far, I don't know why a winner from EOE would be controversial. Being on EOE is no picnic - the conditions there seem much worse than being back with a tribe. I guess what's controversial is having someone you voted out come back.

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1 hour ago, Lamb18 said:

Right now, from what I've seen so far, I don't know why a winner from EOE would be controversial. Being on EOE is no picnic - the conditions there seem much worse than being back with a tribe. I guess what's controversial is having someone you voted out come back.

If this is all true, I think the controversial part is that whoever is voted out is out there with the other castoffs-who are going to make up the jury.  So the winner has time to bond outside of the game and talk to the jury one on one.  So those who actually managed to stay in the game are at a disadvantage because the jury just sees them normally, whereas with the eventual winner they get to know.

I do remember there being a rumor or Wentworth making the final 3, but losing to the EOE castaway. 

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3 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

If this is all true, I think the controversial part is that whoever is voted out is out there with the other castoffs-who are going to make up the jury.  So the winner has time to bond outside of the game and talk to the jury one on one.  So those who actually managed to stay in the game are at a disadvantage because the jury just sees them normally, whereas with the eventual winner they get to know.

I do remember there being a rumor or Wentworth making the final 3, but losing to the EOE castaway. 

Which could explain Dale's angry tweets.

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I'm bored so I thought I'd compile all the rumors that have been posted here so far. It's possible I missed some as I wasn't being super diligent when I went back through. I just kinda skimmed. I could have sworn I saw a post in here pre-premiere that said Victoria won, but I didn't notice it in my skimming so idk if I just missed it, saw it somewhere else, or am just making it up lol. Anyway, here's what I got:

On 12/20/2018 at 6:46 AM, loki567 said:

SpoiledSurvivor over at Reddit had some unconfirmed posts that Kelley loses at FTC to an early boot who makes it back ...

On 12/20/2018 at 1:42 PM, Hanahope said:

I read David was one of 2 pre-merge boots that chose not to go to IoE and instead did the usual pre-merge vacation.

On 12/20/2018 at 1:46 PM, LadyChatts said:

I had heard it was Aubry who made the FTC and lost to an early boot, and that Kelley lost the fire making challenge.  I had also heard the returning players didn't fare well, but I think that's all just speculation right now. 

On 12/29/2018 at 7:01 PM, loki567 said:

Here's the list of all the compiled spoilers at Spoiler Survivor: 

reddit.com/r/SpoiledSurvivor/comments/aaohw5/38boot_spoiler_posts_update/

On 1/9/2019 at 11:52 AM, Hanahope said:

From the rumours I've read, Joe gets voted out fairly early, spends nearly all of IoE fishing for the group, but then fails to win either of the return challenges.  

 The most concrete rumor we have right now on S38 is that it generally was not received well by production and the final outcome is going to be extremely controversial. Since the season was announced, there has also been tons of comparisons being made to Redemption Island (the season). Namely that the producers are trying to get some fan favorites they like a win through a poorly thought out twist.

Hey, guys. I'm here again to bring some info I was told about the game. Again, take this with a grain of salt because I do not full believe this myself. My source has gotten info wrong in the past, but I just want to get this info out so others can make their judgements. As I reported last time, the final six consists of Aubry, Eric, Julie, Kelley, Rick, and an unknown. (counting Eric returning to the game through IoE) I was told conflicting reports that this fifth place finisher is either Lauren or Gavin.Personally, I lean towards Lauren based on the fact Kelley and Lauren follow each other on instagram, so they seemed to be close. My source has also disclosed to me that Aubry was taken to FTC because she was seen as someone who couldn't "finish", whatever that means. I hope you guys can make sense of this, I know it's a bit confusing.

The Extinction Island twist will not be revealed to the entire cast up front. A player will only become aware of the twist once they are voted out. The players remaining in the game will not find out about Extinction Island until the merge when Jeff Probst brings out the eliminated castaways for their first opportunity to win their way back into the game. Think back to the Outcasts twist in Survivor: Pearl Islands to get a sense of how this might work. The winner of the challenge will reenter the game and join the merged tribe. The losers can choose to continue living on Extinction Island or quit.

On 2/28/2019 at 8:40 AM, marys1000 said:

Wendy is spoiled as a quit. 

On 2/28/2019 at 3:14 PM, Hanahope said:

From what I read about IE, if you "quit" once on the island, its just as if you got voted out w/o IE, i.e. you'd go to Ponderosa, either pre-jury or post-jury.  If pre-jury, you'd leave once the merge occurs (go on the pre-jury boot vacation).

After the merge (where one IE battle to return occurs), I read that everyone who is still on IE and voted out thereafter, become jury members.  Those that stay on IE, get the chance to battle to come back again, around F6 or so.  If they leave IE, they will still be jury members, but they get to go to Ponderosa (although maybe they make a rule that only post-merge IE leavers get to go to Ponderosa, pre-merge IE leavers are gone for good).  Everyone after the merge who's a jury member will get to attend TC. 

I've heard that 2 pre-jury boots leave (I don't know if they go to IE first or not), and there is actually a jury of 13 members (18-2=16-3 finalists=13).

And I've heard that the person who comes back to the tribe/wins the IE battle at F6 ends up winning the game. 

On 3/7/2019 at 1:02 AM, LadyChatts said:

I think this was posted already, but I’ll post it again since it applies to Chris.  He had an IG post that he ended up deleting, where he was seen wearing a red buff (supposedly the merge buff).  There could be other explanations, but obviously many believe this means he ends up winning his way back into the game at the merge.

20 hours ago, LanceM said:

F3 is Lauren, Victoria and one of the EOE returnees

Both returnees from EOE are men

Only 1 idol will be found by a man this season

a player will win 3 immunity challenges in a row

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4 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

Ooooh what did he say?  

Don't really remember, but something about the EoE twist ended up messing things up. I'm guessing Kelley goes far, but ends up screwed over by the stupid EoE twist.

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Worth noting that another spoiler was Kellye lost in the fire making challenge.  Maybe it's that that takes her out, and it's because the person who comes back from EOE wins final immunity and screws up a sure thing for her to make the final 3.

Edited by LadyChatts
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10 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

If this is all true, I think the controversial part is that whoever is voted out is out there with the other castoffs-who are going to make up the jury.  So the winner has time to bond outside of the game and talk to the jury one on one.  So those who actually managed to stay in the game are at a disadvantage because the jury just sees them normally, whereas with the eventual winner they get to know. 

That's the theory.  But it doesn't really jive with what we've been shown of EoE thus far.  The people there do not seem to be bonding in any way.  There seems to be as much in-fighting there as on a normal Survivor tribe; possibly more.

Admittedly, this might change once they know that anyone left on EoE will join the jury.

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Well the spoiler that Aubry is at the end and 2 males make it back from EoE both can't be true. 

I still don't understand how and EoE win could be controversial unless something weird happens.  I mean, when they put it together they not only did it knowing that someone could win but were probably hoping someone would win and redeem the whole idea.  

Upthread someone worded something that leads me to a question:   When EoE's participate in the challenge to win back in....I assumed they had to win THE challenge that everyone was playing in.  I.e. Someone from EoE was not guarenteed a back in, in fact it would be somewhat unlikely.  That there might be no one winning their way back in.  Or is it a seperate challenge just for them first?  I'm confused.

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31 minutes ago, marys1000 said:

When EoE's participate in the challenge to win back in....I assumed they had to win THE challenge that everyone was playing in.  I.e. Someone from EoE was not guarenteed a back in, in fact it would be somewhat unlikely.  That there might be no one winning their way back in. 

I hadn't thought of that. I just assumed there'd be a separate challenge for the EoEers and whomever won that would reenter the game and then compete again in the next challenge with everyone still in the game. I think that's how it will work since, as you said, if they had to play against the current players and win in order to get back in then there'd be a chance an EoEer wouldn't return and I don't think that's what Production wants.

Edited by peachmangosteen
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There is going to be a separate challenge for the EOE person to come back in, then a regular IC.  There's debate whether the EOE returnee will get automatic immunity (like the Outcast Tribe returnees did).

I think why it's supposed to be controversial is because the person is voted out of the game, and merely hangs with who will make up the jury that ends up voting for them.  The jury sees the other final 2 like any other jury word, at the various TC and only hears what they have to say there and then to whatever bitter betty is voted off that night.  So they are basically getting to know who they end up voting for more one on one.  I haven't seen this rumored, but maybe a pact is made that they will vote for whoever returns no matter what and that's why it's deemed controversial.  I also heard that TPTB expected more people to quit, and that other castoffs would try and force people into quitting to increase their odds of returning.  And that didn't happen.  But again, that's all rumors.  It could even be TPTB don't like who won or (if you're Probst) Wentworth got beat in the final 3 so he's steamed about that. 

Next week's episode title is called "I'm the Puppet Master."  Right away I thought of Wardog saying that.

Edited by LadyChatts
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5 hours ago, PaperTree said:

Wow, those are some serious bittercakes there.  

I knew there was a reason I didn't like him.

Believe it or not, but I read somewhere that people think Dale's tweets were a misdirect, and maybe his tweets are being used to throw viewers off. I don't believe that at all, though.

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8 hours ago, TVFan1 said:

Believe it or not, but I read somewhere that people think Dale's tweets were a misdirect, and maybe his tweets are being used to throw viewers off. I don't believe that at all, though.

Dale's tweets (if not red herrings) seem to imply that someone gets back in the game from EOE by sheer luck -- like maybe a random draw?

P.S.  Dale is an idiot.

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18 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I also heard that TPTB expected more people to quit, and that other castoffs would try and force people into quitting to increase their odds of returning.  And that didn't happen. 

Well, no one's quitting right now, because they all know something is coming.  that's clear the moment they read the sign that didn't say "your adventure is over."

And after the upcoming challenge when someone gets back into the game, they have to be told, well, either go back to EI, or go on the pre-jury vacation, don't you think they're going to figure out that going back to EI means another chance back into the game?  And those people voted out afterwards will also get the choice of EI or ponderosa, they too will figure out what going to EI means.  So why would anyone quit?

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6 hours ago, Hanahope said:

Well, no one's quitting right now, because they all know something is coming.  that's clear the moment they read the sign that didn't say "your adventure is over."

And after the upcoming challenge when someone gets back into the game, they have to be told, well, either go back to EI, or go on the pre-jury vacation, don't you think they're going to figure out that going back to EI means another chance back into the game?  And those people voted out afterwards will also get the choice of EI or ponderosa, they too will figure out what going to EI means.  So why would anyone quit?

I think they all made the jury. I think all just go to Ponderosa if they decide not to go back to EoE.

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Mid season interview with Kelley.

https://ew.com/tv/2019/03/27/survivor-kelley-wentworth-edge-of-extinction-merge/

"After the tie vote, Lauren and I spoke with Gavin and Victoria to confirm we were on the same page with all voting Wendy on the re-vote. There was also a bit of “Let’s work together come the merge” stuff happening, which is to be expected in a situation where two groups are voting together."

I am so hoping that Kelley is hinting here that they will align with Victoria, Eric and Gavin sometime after the merge.  

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That alliance is my worst nightmare.  But, this season has been pretty crappy so far, so it would be fitting.  Considering Eric and Gavin were all about getting returning players out and having their turn in the sandbox, I'm surprised they'd want to work with Kelley.  

That could go along with the "alliances are tested" that was in the description this week.  I'm still sticking with it being a boring boot, like Joe or David, or someone whose been just an extra at this point, like Julia or Aurora. 

I know it's too much to wish for to see Wardog get that smug grin wiped off his face.  Most times at this point I'm very nervous for my favorites, and how the merge is gonna go.  But I really don't have many favorites this season that I'm that invested in.  

Edited by LadyChatts
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So there was an old spoiler people seemed to dismiss that David gets medavaced. Well it looks like that may be possible.  People on reddit have noticed that Victoria looks to the right in that promo after saying "what happened". The players to the right of her are Eric, Kelley, Julia, Gavin or David.

Edited by LanceM
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Oh, I forgot about that one.

Do Reem, Chris, and Aubry get merge buffs?  Because Chris was seen with a red merge buff, so that might explain that.  Otherwise he might still be a contender to be the second returning player.  

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I don't believe so. Only Rick got a merged buff tonight. So unless the cast is trolling us and someone gave Chris a red buff for that Instagram post he is the final EOE returnee.

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11 minutes ago, LanceM said:

I don't believe so. Only Rick got a merged buff tonight. So unless the cast is trolling us and someone gave Chris a red buff for that Instagram post he is the final EOE returnee.

They might have gotten them when they got to the island. They were not told they could return until after the merge folks had left. 

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39 minutes ago, LanceM said:

I don't believe so. Only Rick got a merged buff tonight. So unless the cast is trolling us and someone gave Chris a red buff for that Instagram post he is the final EOE returnee.

Wouldn’t Joe have had the merge buff as well? Or does Jeff take it when they get “voted out”

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30 minutes ago, ProfCrash said:

They might have gotten them when they got to the island. They were not told they could return until after the merge folks had left. 

But they showed them back on the island when Keith and Wendy left. None of them were wearing it. Nor were they wearing the buffs at TC. The other possiblity that I just thought of is they could have been given them after the season was over for serving on the jury.

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So the spoilers that haven't/have proven true:

CONFIRMED

Wendy and Keith were premerge quits at EOE (Wendy was always named, but the other spoiler said there would be another one that was pre-jury, and many just guessed it would be Keith)

David and Joe were not pre-merge boots, as they were rumored to be

Everyone voted out of EOE that stayed until the merge and didn't quit are jurors; the jury will be 13 members

Aurora, Gavin, and Julia made the merge

UNCONFIRMED

David is medevaced (which may be what we see next week)

We’ll call these the Kelley spoilers: she goes deep into the game; is idoled out; is idoled out by Lauren; loses the F4 fire making challenge; loses in the end to the EOE returning player (Dale's continued angry tweets at the EOE twist are giving this a boost)

F3 is Lauren, Victoria and one of the EOE returnees

Both returnees from EOE are men

Chris has a red merge buff, indicating he returns to the game (but he could be trolling)

Eric is voted off, wins his way back at the final 6

Joe loses the second EOE return challenge

Eric wins

Only 1 idol will be found by a man this season

a player will win 3 immunity challenges in a row

Final 6 was allegedly Aubry, Eric, Kelley, Julie, and an unknown, though I think Anthony at Sucks said this was false

Lauren or Gavin finish in 5th

Rick makes the final 4 and loses the F4 fire making challenge; also rumored he makes the final 6 at least

Aubry was said to have made the final 3 but lost; could still happen if she returns from EOE

Winner was an early boot that returned from EOE; ending was considered controversial

Edited by LadyChatts
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Anyway posted on reddit today, take with the usual copious amount of salt.

12th: Ron/David/Julia

11th: Ron/David/Julia

10th: Ron/David/Julia

9th: Aurora

8th: Eric/Gavin

7th: Eric/Gavin

Chris returns (MINOR possibility of an Eric return instead)

7th: Lauren

6th: Rick

5th: War-Dog

4th: Julie

3rd/2nd: Kelley/Chris

3rd/2nd: Kelley/Chris

Winner: Victoria

Aurora also quits form the Edge of Extinction after being eliminated.

I don't know to what degree you guys will believe me, and I really, really, REALLY, hope this is right because I don't want to deal with the backlash of being incorrect. Talking to anthony gave me more confidence that my spoilers were correct. I want to say that the winner is either Victoria or Julie, but Im FAIRLY certain its Victoria and not Julie. Victoria is acting like she didn't win and has also gone out of her way to tell other survivor players she lost, but there's a shit ton of gossip in the community.

A returning player does NOT win. When Sarah won, everyone in the survivor family knew for example. Everyone knows Kelley got snubbed hard this season and a lot of players are sympathetic to her.

I think the comeback challenge is from 6 to 7, but it could be 7 to 8. I can say that I'm fairly certain nobody is coming back to the game in the finale. Anti-Returnee sentiments, a mix of general support by some of the jury to the EOE returnee, and a Kama Strong mentality all lead to Kelley losing her win. If Chris wasn't in the final 3, the general gossip is that she would have won.

There's a lot of big IFS in this and im sorry about that, I wouldn't be posting this if I wasn't somewhat confident in my source, and it makes me feel a lot better that me and anthony have 5/6 of the same people in the final 6.

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(edited)

That would definitely be an interesting end to the season, and not a bad one for me, since I like Victoria. I guess the only thing that gives me pause is the rumor that the ending for this season was controversial and/or the producers didn't like it. Now, granted there is still plenty of game left, but at this present juncture, I don't see how a Victoria win would be controversial with anybody. I can see how the producers and especially Jeff would root for Kelley to win, but Victoria isn't a bad winner by any stretch. Kelley is not being set up like a "robbed goddess" (ala Aubrey in Kaoh Rong) in her edit and is getting closer to a Guatemala Stephanie edit, and Victoria has some pretty good content and shown some good strategic chops. A Victoria win doesn't seem like it would tarnish the EOE concept, since she doesn't get voted out and an EOE returnee doesn't win. But like I said, plenty of game still to be played, so who knows how the rest of it will unfold. Now granted, if Kelley does just fall short, I can see how that would piss Dale off, but Kelley losing doesn't seem like it would be because of EOE (unless Chris gets more votes than Kelley, which I can see). But Kelley likely wouldn't have won with this jury,  since it is so Kama strong. 

Edited by ForeverAlone
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Maybe that’s why it’s controversial, because of the Kama strong mentality.  It was speculated it was controversial, but as I mentioned before, it could be TPTB didn’t like the winner and Probst favorite Kelley lost.  Or just how the season played out.  I didn’t watch his pre season assessments so I don’t know what he thought of Victoria.  Her win wouldn’t surprise me, since she’s being edited as having a big role in setting up the Aubry blindside and has been the most visible Kama next to Aubry.

I think this week David or another non Kama could go, but that they are setting the Kamas up for a downfall with their invisible edits and Ron’s arrogance.  I am hoping he goes, however.  Going against the spoilers above, I am leaning towards a possible Wardog boot as well.  It could be that Kama feels comfortable voting against Lauren or Kelley and idols come out as well, since they may assume if the girls had them they would have played them already.

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I am starting to think the "controversial" ending is that Kelley just doesn't win. As far as this "bootlist" is concerned even though I posted it here I am extremely skeptical.  We are half through the season and I think people have a general idea of where things are going based on the editing and the stprylines. So it is very possible someone just through threw this out there and it is really just a guess of where things are going.  We shall see.

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(edited)

Yeah, the end of game spoilers that suddenly emerge are usually just lucky guesses.  We’ve seen it many, many times where a tribe has the majority at the merge, then start turning on each other.  Julia went from zero confessionals to suddenly getting screen time, so that could mean her exit is near.  Ron is overconfident in his gaming ability, which is probably leading to his boot either this week or next.

The one reason I’m slightly skeptical of an EOE returing player winning (especially Chris) is that he hasn’t gotten a ton of screen time, either before his boot or while he’s on EOE.  Now I realize that could change as the season progresses, especially if he returns.   But right now I’d say Victoria is getting the best edit for a winner.  And maybe the controversial part is some deal was struck on EOE not to vote for Kelley or any retuning player or to stay Kama strong.  Controversial can mean a lot of things. I have my doubts Kelley will return for a 4th shot, so that could be why Probst doesn’t like it.

Edited by LadyChatts
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