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Whimsy

S36.E11: The Finish Line Is In Sight

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How do you know who was there when that plan was made?  I don't think I overrate Michael -- he's hardly a great player -- but at least he's playing at all, trying at all, unlike, say, Joey Amazing, who could barely even get to playing when Kelley Wentworth and Spencer were like literally telling him exactly what and how to save himself.  As far as I'm concerned, after so many seasons of lumps-on-a-log who don't even try, simply attempting an idol bluff places you solidly in the middle ranks of players.

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Michael did a number of very canny things this season...

- He found an HII early on, without anyone suspecting, and used it in a smart way to nearly break up the majority alliance.  He had two ways to win there, either one of which would have flipped this season on its head;  

- He convinced Chelsea the fake HII she found was indeed fake, by using deductive logic; 

- He was tuned in enough to play his second idol at the perfect time, saving himself from getting booted;

_ Even though the entire tribe was lined up against him, he identified the weakest player among them, got her to believe he had still another idol, and came real close again to thwarting the will of the vast majority.

From the start Michael was behind the 8-ball.  He was playing defensively.  Partly (bad) luck.  I wonder if a guy like him -- handsome, athletic, smart and sociable -- might always draw lots of attention though?  i.e. I wonder if those great qualities might also make him a target to other players.  

Definitely would like to see him return for a future season. 

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12 minutes ago, kikaha said:

He convinced Chelsea the fake HII she found was indeed fake, by using deductive logic;

Wait, what? I don't remember this at all! I don't know why I'm missing or not remembering so many things this season. Maybe that's why I was liking it pre-merge lol.

Edited by peachmangosteen

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Just now, peachmangosteen said:

Wait, what? I don't remember this at all! I am learning so much reading here. I don't know why I'm missing or not remembering so many things this season. Maybe that's why I was liking it pre-merge lol.

I may have confused Chelsea with Jenna (probably did, since Jenna just got booted).  One of them, probably Jenna, said Michael convinced her the idol was fake, because it didn't fit the theme of this season. 

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19 hours ago, Oscirus said:

This is why I call Michael overrated.  He targeted Wendell without having them both in the same place agreeing to that plan? I mean Laurel wasn't going to do that anyway, but still, is he serious with that?

The way I read it, he believed that they were in agreement on the vote out Wendell plan.

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3 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

Wait, what? I don't remember this at all! I don't know why I'm missing or not remembering so many things this season. Maybe that's why I was liking it pre-merge lol.

It was off camera. It's in interviews. 

 

2 hours ago, greyflannel said:

The way I read it, he believed that they were in agreement on the vote out Wendell plan.

If they both were so scared of the idol that they were targeting each other as opposed to Wendell, I'd guess that Michael likely got separate agreements from both ladies. Otherwise, why be scared of the idol? 

3 hours ago, kikaha said:

Michael did a number of very canny things this season...

- He found an HII early on, without anyone suspecting, and used it in a smart way to nearly break up the majority alliance.  He had two ways to win there, either one of which would have flipped this season on its head;  

- He convinced Chelsea the fake HII she found was indeed fake, by using deductive logic; 

- He was tuned in enough to play his second idol at the perfect time, saving himself from getting booted;

_ Even though the entire tribe was lined up against him, he identified the weakest player among them, got her to believe he had still another idol, and came real close again to thwarting the will of the vast majority.

From the start Michael was behind the 8-ball.  He was playing defensively.  Partly (bad) luck.  I wonder if a guy like him -- handsome, athletic, smart and sociable -- might always draw lots of attention though?  i.e. I wonder if those great qualities might also make him a target to other players.  

Definitely would like to see him return for a future season. 

He also wasted that first idol when Brendan told him exactly who they were targeting.

He was the target, it was common sense to play that second one.

A lot of Michael's bad luck was due to his own gameplay, sure we can talk about always being on the wrong side of the numbers during twists, but he had quite a few opportunities to help himself that he failed on.

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7 hours ago, kikaha said:

I may have confused Chelsea with Jenna (probably did, since Jenna just got booted).  One of them, probably Jenna, said Michael convinced her the idol was fake, because it didn't fit the theme of this season. 

Yes that was Jenna, not Chelsea.

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On 5/4/2018 at 2:20 PM, Oscirus said:

Seems to indicate that she's planning to make a move on dom and Wendell but I have no idea when she plans to do so. She's had multiple chances to do so  but hasn't taken one. Maybe she wants to take out Dom but cant get to him.  But even then she's had shots. Ultimately I think that Wendell/ Dom seem to be selling others on either naviti strong/ final four, so they're either lining up soldiers or trusting in the four they have. Interviews will be interesting.

Thanks for posting this video. I think Laurel is going to come away from the game with a lot of new friends, and a lot of regrets. If she gets to play again, it'll be interesting to see how she adjusts her strategy. Like you say, she talks about getting Domenick and Wendell out, but I think in her heart of hearts, she must realize she's playing for second or third.

11 hours ago, kikaha said:

From the start Michael was behind the 8-ball.  He was playing defensively.  Partly (bad) luck.  I wonder if a guy like him -- handsome, athletic, smart and sociable -- might always draw lots of attention though?  i.e. I wonder if those great qualities might also make him a target to other players.

I mostly agree with this (I don't think Michael was necessarily at the bottom of original Malolo)—Michael had terrible luck with tribal swaps, especially since after the first swap, he was stuck on a tribe with Kellyn enforcing a "Naviti strong" voting strategy that was easier for people to go along with than to challenge her on. It would be interesting to know how the game would look and what our impressions would be if he had gotten Laurel's path through the pre-merge game and Laurel had gotten his.

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Michael was fine on Malolo but was in trouble as soon as Malolo lost the first two immunity challenges. Survivor is a numbers game and when you are on a tribe that losses the first two challenges, you are in trouble. Original Malolo ended up in the minority on both tribes which pretty much guaranteed that they were screwed the rest of the way out. The only reason that Morgan went home from Naviti is because Chris and Dom were both jonesing for the opportunity to vote the other one out which allowed the Original Malolo to pick off a Naviti. But after that, it was all done.

I agree with others who think that the only way that you avoid the Pagoning is to put everyone on the same beach and draw for tribes or do a school yard pick for teams for each reward and immunity challenge. The two fast tribe swaps clearly did not break up the original tribes.

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On 5/4/2018 at 1:40 PM, mikewho said:

I didn't think they were acting either. Not at all. What I saw was two friends prodding each other, in a good-natured way. They were both laughing and smiling. I thought it was a cool scene. Same as when a group of bestest buddies play poker, and one says "I'm gonna kick all your butts and take all your money!". And then he does. But there's no resentment, 'cause that's the game. And the friendship was never in question.

Agreed. Good natured and cute in real life, but probably not the smartest thing to do in this game. At least in any other season, they would have made instant targets of themselves, both for their obvious bond and competitiveness.

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On 5/5/2018 at 12:48 AM, Oscirus said:

Problem with that is she could've booted Kellyn two tribals back and dom/Wendell would've still needed her.

But wouldn’t going after Kellyn at that point in time have been Laurel cutting off her nose to spite her face?  Yes, WenDom would’ve still needed her - but their trust in Laurel would be severely negatively impacted.  WD would be acting out of necessity vs. choice, and that usually leaves a bad taste in anybody’s mouth - enough so they might try cutting Laurel at the first available opportunity.  

I can’t say whether the current state of affairs evolved through accident or design, but either way it’s left Laurel in a much more favorable position.  Laurel actively demonstrated loyalty to WenDom, and even Kellyn, and we’ve seen Dom demonstrate his gratitude.  We have also seen Kellyn demonstrate her INgratitude by going after Laurel on the very next TC after Laurel saved Kellyn’s ass - and what’s more, WenDom have seen it too.  

At this point in time, who do you think WenDom is more likely to trust: the one who saved their butts, or the one who targeted someone despite an active demonstration of loyalty?  If loyalty means so little to Kellyn, what’s to stop her from flipping on WenDom at the next available chance?  I wouldn’t be surprised right now if WenDom doesn’t regard Laurel as a more trustworthy and stable ally (for whatever basis) than Kellyn.

 

On 5/5/2018 at 12:48 AM, Oscirus said:

Conventional wisdom says that your power shifts happen at the odd numbered tribals. Assuming that nobody blindsides/ forces them to use their idols till the five that's one more tribal she has to start working on it. She better target Kellyn next

Agree RE Kellyn - although K is doing a pretty damn good job of that herself.  :>

But given the Survivor change from straightforward F3 to F4-morphed-into-F3 - does the odd number rule still apply?  Particularly when everybody and their grandmother’s cat has HIIs falling out of their ass?

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I think Laurel will be in a good place if she hits the finals.

1) She saw that the Malolo tribe was in the minority and felt she was in the bottom of that alliance. So she entered into an alliance with Wendell and Dom

2) Malolo was further decimated during the tribe swaps putting Laurel in a position where she needed to work with Wendell, and Dom by proxy

3) She demonstrated how loyal she was to Wendell and Dom by protecting their alliance and pointing out when Wendell and Dom are being targeted

4) In the end, she was a member of the minority tribe and made it to the final. She was a vital part of a four person alliance that most people had no clue existed because the Mixed Alliance was smart in hiding its existence.

5) Yes, Dom and Wendell played a flashier game but they could because they were in the majority tribe and safer. Also, they had the help of Laurel and Donothan who could tell them when they were being targeted. So Dom and Wendell could fall back on their original tribe numbers and their secret alliance allowing them to play more openly. Laurel did not have that same safety net

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I lost my cable between when they went to Ghost Island and when they showed up at tribal without Angela. Please fill me in!!!! Thanks all. 

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As there is talk of Dom and Wendell not making "big enough moves" for people to respect or like, I would like to posit that aligning themselves with Donathan and Laurel was in fact a great move.

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