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S36: Ghost Island Preview and Speculation

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I don't think Kellyn is anything other then one of Jeff's favorite contestants. Even with the editing, she has no way to go forward without immunitying her way there. Dom has the majority of the alliances tied up one way or the other and what he doesn't have isn't enough to overtake him. I don't even see her as a villain as she's not particularly evil. Just dislikeable depending on the viewer. 

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Thing for me with Kellyn is not just the amount of screentime (which I would say has been quite high until recently) but the type of screentime: a whole lot about her as a person, above all.  And that's the sort of thing that gets me thinking 'winner'.  I do think Des just blew up her game though.  Maybe if she had reached out to the Malolos instead of literally saying "sucks to be you but that's the numbers, golly, I guess I'm just in the catbird seat again, who would have thought that Sweet Little Miss Kellyn of all people would be triumphing over you poor saps!  Now go drink your water because I'm voting you out and there's nothing you can do about it, LOL!" she wouldn't be in this situation.

Edited by KimberStormer
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2 hours ago, KimberStormer said:

I do think Des just blew up her game though.

Yeah, as I understand it, Kellyn's plan was for original Naviti to take out original Malolo and then when they got down to 7, the women would take over, which would have left her with three goats to choose from. This is why she had no problem with the Chris vote, since the Naviti majority was still intact without him, and it gave the women the 4-3 advantage within that group.

However, now that Des is gone, that plan is no longer an option. And given that this is the second time she's changed her vote on Chelsea without telling her, her women's alliance may be unsalvageable, even if she could bring in Laurel or convince Domenick to vote with them at F6.

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Do Kellyn and Dom have some sort of alliance?  (Or more accurately, does Kellyn think that she has an alliance with Dom?)  Have we seen any evidence of this?  I think that in order to vote out Des she must have some set-up that we don't know about.  She can't feel good about working with just Angela (total wildcard) and Chelsea (who she has left out of the mix multiple times)....right? 

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8 minutes ago, prunieprune said:

Do Kellyn and Dom have some sort of alliance?  (Or more accurately, does Kellyn think that she has an alliance with Dom?)  Have we seen any evidence of this?  I think that in order to vote out Des she must have some set-up that we don't know about.  She can't feel good about working with just Angela (total wildcard) and Chelsea (who she has left out of the mix multiple times)....right? 

Actually the last episode was the first time Chelsea has been out of the loop.  

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Ah, good point @LanceM. I thought Chelsea and Desiree voted for Libby at the Tribal Council where Chris was booted, but it was actually Angela and Desiree. Either way, leaving your supposed allies out of the loop like that is a great way to get them to stop trusting you.

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5 hours ago, prunieprune said:

Do Kellyn and Dom have some sort of alliance?  (Or more accurately, does Kellyn think that she has an alliance with Dom?)  Have we seen any evidence of this?  I think that in order to vote out Des she must have some set-up that we don't know about.  She can't feel good about working with just Angela (total wildcard) and Chelsea (who she has left out of the mix multiple times)....right? 

I think Kellyn thinks she has an alliance with Dom.  I don’t know if that’s going both ways.  My guess is she voted out Des because she assumed she still had the numbers, that Des would probably be less pissed at her on the jury (even though she gave Des a reason not to trust her for the earlier Libby vote), and that Des was targeting her.  

Edited by LadyChatts
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12 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

I think Kellyn thinks she has an alliance with Dom.

 

Yea, this. And I think there's a slight chance Dom could end up taking her farther than Laurel or Donathan if he thinks she's easier to beat, but ultimately he's not actually loyal to her nor does he truly consider her his alliance member.

Edited by peachmangosteen
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1 hour ago, peachmangosteen said:

Yea, this. And I think there's a slight chance Dom could end up taking her farther than Laurel or Donathan if he thinks she's easier to beat, but ultimately he's not actually loyal to her nor does he truly consider her his alliance member.

This actually got me thinking, for as much talk about Laurel and Donathan needing to decide soon if they want to stick with Dom and Wendell, the same could be said for those two.  It does make me wonder if they will decide who is easier to beat in the end-Laurel/Donathan, or some combo of Chelsea/Seabass/Kellyn/Angela.  Wendell seems close to Laurel, and I'm curious where he sits with Dom right now.  I could see Dom being the one to flip on Laurel/Donathan before they flip on him (and over Wendell flipping on them), if he decides not to go any further with them.  Wendell is another one whose getting kind of a curious edit.  First we got nothing, then he became kind of central to the plot, now he's back to being in the background.  I believe he's pretty much up on decisions and what's going on, considering he hasn't even attempted to play his idol despite his name being thrown around constantly.

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I am guessing that Dom and Wendell are comfortable with bringing Laurel and Donathon to the final four because Dom and Wendell know that people don't know about what Laurel and Donathon have been doing, making it easier for Dom and Wendell to win.

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One side note regarding Laurel - while I do think most of her efforts at this point are focused on advancing a Dom/Don/Laurel/Wendell F4, I don’t think Laurel realistically expects a DDLW F4.  More specifically:

  • Laurel does not realistically expect her group of four (Dominic, Donathan, Wendell and herself) to make it to F4 unscathed.  Dom and Wendell both present as huge targets individually, and as a monumental pair target, so it’s a virtual certainty everybody NOT in this group of four will make breaking up the Dom/Wendell pair a priority at some point or another.  There is always the possibility a paired immunity/idol run could preserve the DW pair to the point of the four constituting a TC vote-ruling majority, of course - but failing that, the most realistic best-case scenario would probably be 3 of the group making it to F4: Laurel, Donathan, and one of either Dom or Wendell.
  • In such a 3/4 case, though - so long as Laurel is successful at shoring up solidarity of support within her core 4, does it really matter who gets dragged along with them to F4?  In such a scenario her group has a 75% chance of winning the final IC, which means two of them (the winner and his/her pick) are virtually guaranteed F3.  In this case their only concern need be that the extra “4th wheel” taken along with them to F4 would ideally be the most challenge-inept, socially disconnected person left in the game - i.e., the goatiest goat that ever goated.  Such a goat would hopefully fail the F4-to-F3 firemaking challenge - of, if they did luck into the win, present no contest to the remaining 2 of the core 4 making it to FTC.

So, by supporting her current F4 even if she doesn’t truly anticipate it being a completely successful F4, Laurel potentially gains herself a 50% chance at making it to FTC and the Final 3 - and if BOTH Dom AND Wendell happen to fall by the wayside on that particular journey then (a) that means Laurel would be sitting next to Donathan and the one-other at FTC and (b) Laurel has a good shot at winning it all.

Edited by Nashville · Reason: Expansion
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On 4/29/2018 at 1:09 AM, KimberStormer said:

Thing for me with Kellyn is not just the amount of screentime (which I would say has been quite high until recently) but the type of screentime: a whole lot about her as a person, above all.  And that's the sort of thing that gets me thinking 'winner'. 

Do you think her interaction with Dom last week said 'winner'?  To me it said the opposite.  She in a very high-and-mighty way told him they were voting out Michael.  They ended up voting out Des, just as Dom wanted.  If anything that came across more like a winner edit for Dom than for Kellyn. 

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No, I meant to say that I thought this week was different.  Kellyn was a bit more in the background for a couple episodes but that seemed consistent with a winner edit; this episode both edit and vote made me think she doesn't have much of a chance.  To be honest the strong-arm with Dom didn't bother me, sometimes that's how you get politics done, but the fact that she was blithely saying everything was going her way and Des would never betray her, etc, when we knew neither of those were true, did seem like non-winner material.

Dom does have a good edit, a basically-level-headed-but-aggressive-gamer edit; I never understood the comparison to Tony and I get it even less now.  He seems like a very big target, though.  Props to him if he can make it to the end.

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Dom was presented as kind of a bonehead New Yorker at first but only an ep or two.  His fake idol thing with Chris had an overplaying, overconfident thing like Tony’s antics did.  But past that I didn’t see it, either.  

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I'm pretty sure Wendell is set on his F4 alliance and I also think Laurel is probably down with it, but have we seen Domenick say anything about it? Or Donathan for that matter? I assume it'll happen because we haven't seen anyone else say anything about a final four deal involving Domenick/Wendell/Laurel/Donathan (or any other F4 alliance, for that matter), but it seems like Domenick in particular might have other options for getting to the end. If and when Kellyn goes, I'm hoping her exit interviews will shed some light on some of the tribal dynamics that we're not being shown.

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On ‎4‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 4:18 PM, prunieprune said:

Do Kellyn and Dom have some sort of alliance?  (Or more accurately, does Kellyn think that she has an alliance with Dom?)  Have we seen any evidence of this?  I think that in order to vote out Des she must have some set-up that we don't know about.  She can't feel good about working with just Angela (total wildcard) and Chelsea (who she has left out of the mix multiple times)....right? 

I thought about this for a while and now I'm thinking that there likely is an alliance between dom Wendell chels and Kellyn.  We'll likely hear more once their interviews come out.  Her initial plan was likely go naviti strong then turn on the men with Des and Angela. Unfortunately for her it looks like dom wen are more into their alliance with Laurel/Don.

 

5 hours ago, Hera said:

I'm pretty sure Wendell is set on his F4 alliance and I also think Laurel is probably down with it, but have we seen Domenick say anything about it? Or Donathan for that matter? I assume it'll happen because we haven't seen anyone else say anything about a final four deal involving Domenick/Wendell/Laurel/Donathan (or any other F4 alliance, for that matter), but it seems like Domenick in particular might have other options for getting to the end. If and when Kellyn goes, I'm hoping her exit interviews will shed some light on some of the tribal dynamics that we're not being shown.

I assume Dom is cool with it too.  Donathon has shown he's still thinking malolo first but since laurel is loyal to dom/wen, he'll tolerate them... for now.  Idol might change that.

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I am sure that Dom and Wendell have two alliances. The original alliance was Bradley, Chelsea, Kellyn, Des, Morgan, Wendell and Dom. When the tribes swapped, Dom found a bond with Donathon and Wendell with Laurel. I don't think Dom ever thought he was at the top of his original Naviti alliance, I am reasonably sure that the Chris/Angela rift was something that was highly problematic and that it put a target on Dom's back. Not to mention, the original alliance was simply too large. Once Wendell and Dom connected with Donathon and Laurel, I think they locked in a final four that we will see play out.

There are two possibilities based on what we have seen. Dom and Wendell are going to brutally cut Laurel and Donathon in favor of Chelsea and Kellyn or The Mixed Alliance is the real one.

I lean towards the Mixed Alliance is the real one. Dom threw a challenge to get Bradley out of the game before the merge for a reason. We have not seen any real footage of Dom or Wendell bonding with Kellyn and Chelsea. The fact that Dom went to Kellyn about Des's actions was a surprise to me, I had no reason to think that Dom would care about protecting Kellyn. The fact that Kellyn wanted to protect Des when Dom told Kellyn that Des was trying to get Kellyn out indicates that Kellyn saw Des as alliance mate that needed to be protected. So Dom was willing to cut Des and Kellyn was willing to fight for Des.

The way I see it, Dom wanted Des out because she was plotting to remove Dom and Wendell after Kellyn. Dom could care less about protecting Kellyn, he was watching his back. Des, with the Malolo and Chelsea and Sea Bass, would upset Dom's plans. Kellyn is so tightly tied into the Naviti strong BS (Hello female Dan Foley in tribe loyalty only) that Kellyn is not a threat to work with the Malolo.  So Des made herself a bigger target and had to go. As long as Dom targets Michael or Jenna this next vote, Dom is fine win Kellyn's book.

Right now, The Mixed Alliance has spies in both camps who can protect all members. So far Laurel and Donathon appear to have protected Dom and Wendell more then Dom and Wendell have protected Laurel and Donathon but I don't buy that. Dom and Wendell have kept the Naviti focused on Michael and other Naviti not Laurel and Wendell. They have had help with Des's blind desire to vote out Libby, I suspect Des's focus was to avenge Morgan, and Michael's obvious target. We have not heard anyone mention voting out Laurel or Donathon. Obviously, Donathon has informed Dom about the plan to split the vote and target Dom and Wendell and about Des's move.

Dom and Wendell are using the original Naviti alliance to handle their dirty work, while protecting their real alliance, and will cut Chelsea, Kellyn and Sea Bass once Michael and Jenna are gone and the Mixed Alliance has the numbers.

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So Kellyn looked pretty peeved at someone in the previews-did she get grilled by Dom about the extra vote, or is she upset at someone else?  Maybe Donathan because she still has the mentality of Naviti strong and she thinks he's raining on their parade?

And I'll say it again next week, but I hate the family visit.

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Next week should be interesting seeing as how the Naviti bunch isn't all happy. Seeing Kellyn pissed at whoever makes me glad. Maybe she's the next to go??

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Next week has to be the breaking point for Domenick and Wendell.  Either they stick with "Naviti strong" and turn on Laurel or Donathan, or else they try to vote out one of Chelsea, Kellyn, Angela or Sea Bass to gain the numbers advantage over the former Naviti crew.

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I am so hoping Kellyn finds the coconut idol. Regarding her anger: I bet she feels embarrassed for being wrong about Michael and wasting her vote, and what better way to get over embarrassment than by being angry and finding someone else to blame? After all her gut is never wrong so it must be someone else's fault!

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On ‎4‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 11:43 PM, Oscirus said:

Interesting tidbit from Des's interviews, they apparently knew that Wendell had an idol and he apparently had a fake idol as well. Not sure if this is rewriting history or true. But if true, that's interesting especially since we haven't seen that. Also Des tried to turn Lauren against Wendell, but Laurel wouldn't go for it.

Yep Wendell created a fake idol planted it and it was found by Jenna.  Apparently looked realistic had a paper and all that. Unfortunately, Michael had to ruin our fun by telling her it wasn't real since it didn't fit the theme of this season. 

Final 8 here we go.

Dom- Now he's talking about his family. Either this is the biggest troll job ever by the editors or he's the winner going away.

Wendell- Might be runner up, might be third, depends on votes at this point

Laurel- Possibly the biggest contender if she can sell playing from the bottom.

Donathon- Kid has game but will anybody respect it?

Chelsea- If she immunities her way to the end, she can win it. Editing says she doesn't do that.

Sebastian- Waiting to be voted off.

Angela-  Could be one of the older ladies that makes the finals, but wins? hell no.

Kellyn- Completely torpedoed her game these last two weeks. Gave up her advantage and is getting tons of tv time. She's not long for the game.

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8 hours ago, Lamb18 said:

I am so hoping Kellyn finds the coconut idol. Regarding her anger: I bet she feels embarrassed for being wrong about Michael and wasting her vote, and what better way to get over embarrassment than by being angry and finding someone else to blame? After all her gut is never wrong so it must be someone else's fault!

I am crossing my fingers and praying to the Survivor gods that this happens.  If she runs afoul of Dom next week, he may very well plant that for her to find, then vote her off.  Kellyn really has not been getting a good edit; seems kind of comedic in nature.  It'll be interesting if next week we see a split of Angela/Kellyn/Chelsea/Seabass vs Donathan/Laurel/Dom/Wendell.  If Kellyn tries to recruit Laurel and/or Donathan to vote off Dom/Wendell, they will no doubt run right back to the guys and tell them.  Luckily for their side, both their guys have working idols.  I could even see Kellyn making a blunder and telling L/D that "at least you'll get 5th and 6th if you go with us."

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1 hour ago, LadyChatts said:

It'll be interesting if next week we see a split of Angela/Kellyn/Chelsea/Seabass vs Donathan/Laurel/Dom/Wendell.  If Kellyn tries to recruit Laurel and/or Donathan to vote off Dom/Wendell, they will no doubt run right back to the guys and tell them.  Luckily for their side, both their guys have working idols.  I could even see Kellyn making a blunder and telling L/D that "at least you'll get 5th and 6th if you go with us."

This would have me torn because on one hand I will enjoy seeing Kellyn fucked over, but on the other I just really wanna see Dom/Wendell fucked over, too.

I think at this point it is blatantly obvious Dom wins. And even though I like him I really hope it's a misleading edit and he goes soon because otherwise the finale is going to be boringly predictable.

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19 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

This would have me torn because on one hand I will enjoy seeing Kellyn fucked over, but on the other I just really wanna see Dom/Wendell fucked over, too.

I think at this point it is blatantly obvious Dom wins. And even though I like him I really hope it's a misleading edit and he goes soon because otherwise the finale is going to be boringly predictable.

I wouldn't rule out Wendell.  It's hard to see a case for anyone else winning at this point, although with this show who knows.  Someone like Chelsea could win but they hyped Dom up so a return appearance down the road made sense.  At this point, based on editing though, Dom and Wendell seem likely contenders.  Wendell is funny, because he'll be invisible, show up for the big moments, then disappear again.  I think he'll get called a side kick to Dom and not get respect.  I am wondering if Laurel or Donathan end up making a big move that could win respect from the jury.  They might decide to get the opposing alliance down in numbers and then flip.  It's hard to say if that would even work, but honestly, I'd love to see it happen.

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I will say this. I get the feeling they're setting us up for Dom vs Wendell sometime in the near future.  That's the second time that we've gotten a confessional from Wendell about how he's going to be loyal to Dom. I don't  imagine that's a hint as to future events. ;-)

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14 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

If Kellyn tries to recruit Laurel and/or Donathan to vote off Dom/Wendell, they will no doubt run right back to the guys and tell them.  Luckily for their side, both their guys have working idols.  I could even see Kellyn making a blunder and telling L/D that "at least you'll get 5th and 6th if you go with us."

Laurel knows Kellyn voted for her (and once they hash it out, will probably know that Kellyn voted for her twice). I don't think she stands a chance there and even her gut wouldn't be stupid enough to tell her she does. 

6 hours ago, Oscirus said:

I will say this. I get the feeling they're setting us up for Dom vs Wendell sometime in the near future.  That's the second time that we've gotten a confessional from Wendell about how he's going to be loyal to Dom. I don't  imagine that's a hint as to future events. ;-)

Dom gave a confessional this week that he'd cut Wendell if he had to, that I thought might have been a point in the Wendell-win column - Dom will have an opportunity, but he won't cut him, just like Stephen never cut JT, and as a result Dom will lose. May be wishful thinking though. 

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On 5/1/2018 at 1:53 AM, Oscirus said:

I thought about this for a while and now I'm thinking that there likely is an alliance between dom Wendell chels and Kellyn.  We'll likely hear more once their interviews come out.  Her initial plan was likely go naviti strong then turn on the men with Des and Angela. Unfortunately for her it looks like dom wen are more into their alliance with Laurel/Don.

I don’t think it’s an “alliance” per se; more like the simple “original Naviti” association.  But I do think both Kellyn (yay!) and Chelsea (not so much) treat the OG Naviti association as if it were an alliance - and that misperception will bite both in the butt before too long.

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On 5/3/2018 at 7:50 AM, Lamb18 said:

I am so hoping Kellyn finds the coconut idol. Regarding her anger: I bet she feels embarrassed for being wrong about Michael and wasting her vote, and what better way to get over embarrassment than by being angry and finding someone else to blame? After all her gut is never wrong so it must be someone else's fault!

Same here; given Kellyn’s previously displayed petulance towards Dom, I don’t think there’s any way Kellyn doesn’t take an “idol” find as the green light to go after Dom - which I fully expect her to mismanage just as thoroughly as she does everything else.  

Plus, I’d give even odds Kellyn couldn’t resist the temptation to rub her “find” in Dom’s face - at which point the challenge becomes Dom’s, in keeping enough of a straight face to not give everything away.  ;>

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I'm starting to wonder if Chelsea is a quit, or goes in some sort of ridiculous twist where they know the audience would be mad if they cared about her at all. It's the only explanation for her edit. 

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I think we're heading for a Dom vs. Wendell scenario soon, too, but I just think Dom is gonna win out. He just has so many more confessionals than anyone else. Like it's crazy.

8 minutes ago, MissEwa said:

I'm starting to wonder if Chelsea is a quit, or goes in some sort of ridiculous twist where they know the audience would be mad if they cared about her at all. It's the only explanation for her edit. 

Yea, me too. She has only had 3 confessionals total! That is extreme. I feel like even Purple Kelly had more than that. I feel like she either quits or someone behind the scenes really hates her for some reason.

Edited by peachmangosteen
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18 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

I think we're heading for a Dom vs. Wendell scenario soon, too, but I just think Dom is gonna win out. He just has so many more confessionals than anyone else. Like it's crazy.

 

I just binge watched all of the episodes in the last 2 days.  Having watched them back to back, I realized that there is more substance to Wendell's edit than Dom, even though Dom has more confessionals.  I feel I know more about Wendell as a character than Dom.  

Wendell has more jury connections (saved a seashell for Sea Bass).

His idol find was connected to his love for Nicole (everyone sang happy birthday). This indicates connections he is making outside of the game playing.

While the show down was between Dom and Chris, they made it a point to show Wendell mediating and Chris' respect for Wendell.

Michael made a point to state that Wendell was unstoppable in challenges and if he targets Wendell, then Dom is weakened.

They are presented as a pair and seen as equal, but Michael sees him as more physical and he may reward him with his vote over Dom.

In my opinion, they are going to show Dom's downfall in the upcoming episodes (Kellyn has been shown discussing strategies with Dom more than Wendell while chanting Naviti strong.  She will probably feel more hurt and betrayed by Dom than Wendell- as Wendell stated in the episode before the last that he doesn't want to get involved with a decision about breaking up Naviti.  Kellyn wanted Michael while Dom wanted Des).  Kellyn seems to have a lot of sway with the  Naviti girls.  They will not like being voted out over Lauren and Donathan.  I think this is why Dom may lose.

This builds a case as to why Wendell could win.  This also explains why Dom may want to cut him soon.

 

Last season ( I can't remember his name, but he lost to Ben in the fire challenge at the last Tribal Council) that player was very similar to Wendell with regards to the edit, but the jury connections were missing, which leads me to believe that Wendell is in the endgame. 

 

Dom does have have a lot of confessionals, and it is because he is active in the game and the game revolves around him.  The current storyline is also built around his game more so than Wendell's (Chris vs. Dom, idols, maybe Dom vs. Wendell) He is also an interesting player and has a lot of likeable moments.    However, he is too obvious and he does not have any doubts.  

Tony's doubt was Spencer and that no one would actually vote for him. Ben last season had a lot of confessionals, but lots of doubts if he could actually get to the end and win.   RI Boston Rob had players talking about cutting him even though he was obvious.  Dom has none.  Wendell's doubt is that he is too loyal to Dom, and Dom could blindside him.  If it were not for Wendell's jury connections, I would agree Wendell does not win.

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I could argue either way.  With Dom, the confessional count is big time in his favor, and the interviews so far seem to favor him with his getting the lion share of the credit for strategizing. However, Wendell's playing a more subtle game, so he wouldn't be getting the lion share of the confessionals, and the other consistent theme of interviews seems to be everybody loves Wendell. And while he might not be getting the credit for strategy, he is getting the credit for being one of the leaders.  Hopefully they both make the finals so we can at least have a close final, but the way the edit seems to be setting up those two going after one another, I doubt it.

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I'm curious if the data is out there to compare how many winners were way high in confessionals at this point in the game, around 75% through.  I could see someone else edging up to his number because they're heavily featured in the last 2-3 episodes, which a winner would likely be.  And if Dom went home with episodes left to air, that'd make it even easier to catch up to his number. 

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7 hours ago, Winston9-DT3 said:

I'm curious if the data is out there to compare how many winners were way high in confessionals at this point in the game, around 75% through.  I could see someone else edging up to his number because they're heavily featured in the last 2-3 episodes, which a winner would likely be.  And if Dom went home with episodes left to air, that'd make it even easier to catch up to his number. 

http://survivor.wikia.com/wiki/Confessional

 

According to this, 12 out of 35 winners had the highest confessional count.  Earl and Sarah's confessional count, If I can recall correctly, were lower than Yau Man and Brad Culpepper, respectively, going into the finale.  Richard, Tony, JT, Mike, Rob (RI), and Ben had an overwhelming number of confessionals the episodes leading up to the finale.  

Many of the nonwinners  with the highest count their seasons dictated the storyline (Tai, Sugar, Rupert, Spencer-2nd Chances, Coach) or were the most strategic (Cirie, Rob- All Stars, Russell).

Edited by Earlfor1 · Reason: I forgot to include season 35 winner.
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4 hours ago, Earlfor1 said:

Wendell has more jury connections (saved a seashell for Sea Bass).

I forgot about that. 

You make a great case for Wendell winning. I would love that since he's on my fantasy team and Dom is not lol. 

I feel like I have missed all the little hints at a winner's edit for Wendell. I just feel like we barely see him tbh. Maybe it's just because he's quieter. Plus, they aren't really showing people going to him the way they are with Dom.

In any case, I feel like Dom and Wendell are really the only possible winners. And I, like @Oscirus, hope they're both in the F3 so we might get a close, interesting FTC rather than a predictable, boring one.

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4 hours ago, Earlfor1 said:

11 out of 35 winners had the highest confessional count.

But do you see anywhere where it says how many winners had the most 75% through?  

11 out of 35 winners is pretty low.  I wouldn't even bother trying to use it as a predictor, at that percent.  

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1 hour ago, Winston9-DT3 said:

But do you see anywhere where it says how many winners had the most 75% through?  

11 out of 35 winners is pretty low.  I wouldn't even bother trying to use it as a predictor, at that percent.  

I tried to find more statistics, but couldn't. I amended my previous post.  It was 12 winners, not 11.  Confessionals count has not been a good predictor throughout the seasons. However, since Probst became the EP (starting from Redemption Island), that percentage of winners with a higher number of confessionals became higher.

Edited by Earlfor1 · Reason: Specific season

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3 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

I forgot about that. 

You make a great case for Wendell winning. I would love that since he's on my fantasy team and Dom is not lol. 

I feel like I have missed all the little hints at a winner's edit for Wendell. I just feel like we barely see him tbh. Maybe it's just because he's quieter. Plus, they aren't really showing people going to him the way they are with Dom.

In any case, I feel like Dom and Wendell are really the only possible winners. And I, like @Oscirus, hope they're both in the F3 so we might get a close, interesting FTC rather than a predictable, boring one.

I'll again say that they may be planning on bringing Dom back in the future, so that could explain his more visible and laid out edit compared to some of the others.   Wendell winning wouldn't surprise me.  This jury is going to be kind of interesting, and I'm always curious what they'll go for: respect for game play or social bonds?  So again, if it's more game play, can Wendell's game play be respected or will he be seen as someone who was just following Dom?  The edits are interesting, because Wendell seems to be creating the social bonds and Dom playing the strategic game.  Some could argue Dom didn't really do anything but target those targeting him and getting lucky to have the numbers on his side.  Clearly being a social player has its benefits, but I don't know that Dom has done too shabby.  I don't think I've seen any booted castaway say anything bad about him.  I always thought the feud with Chris was stupid and more one sided, because you had one guy targeting the other, so that guy fought back. 

Again, though, stranger things have happened on this show.  If Angela or Chelsea suddenly get a uptick in confessionals this week I guess they are winning (or getting voted off). 

Edited by LadyChatts
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12 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

The edits are interesting, because Wendell seems to be creating the social bonds ...

 

I keep seeing this and I don't remember Wendell being shown having any social bonds besides Laurel and Dom. They showed him giving Sebastian the seashell but they've never been shown together since lol. But maybe I'm just not remembering all of the bonds Wendell has been shown having. Wendell just feels like background in the eps to me.

13 hours ago, Winston9-DT3 said:

11 out of 35 winners is pretty low.  I wouldn't even bother trying to use it as a predictor, at that percent.  

In the 15 seasons before this one, the winner was the person with the most confessional 10 times, so it's been more prevalent recently.

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Regarding who’s going to win, I go back and forth between Dom and Wendell.  I agree that Wendell has softer interactions with people, where he seems to really value what the other person is saying.  I think in this last episode it was listening to Kellyn and her fears about Michael having the idol.  

In other matters, I think Kellyn is mad in the preview because Laurel dared write her name down and Dom and/or Wendell aren’t outraged at this.

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2 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

In the 15 seasons before this one, the winner was the person with the most confessional 10 times, so it's been more prevalent recently.

From that link given above, it says that in only 8 of the last 15 seasons did the winner have the most confessionals.  In the last 5, only the last 2 had winners with the most confessionals.  But the 5 before that, all but one did. 

I'm not trying to be argumentative, I think it's fun to look at this stuff.  I just don't see a strong enough correlation to think it's very predictive, especially with so many eps remaining.  

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3 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

I keep seeing this and I don't remember Wendell being shown having any social bonds besides Laurel and Dom. They showed him giving Sebastian the seashell but they've never been shown together since lol. But maybe I'm just not remembering all of the bonds Wendell has been shown having. Wendell just feels like background in the eps to me.

More subtle then anything. The reason shown for donathon/Laurel agreeing to align with Dom/Wendell is because they wanted to work with Wendell. Don't remember if this was a deleted scene or not but Jenna did a confessional where she was happy to switch tribes especially because she got to meet Wendell. They even had a scene where people are waking up and are just watching Wendell work on the kitchen.  Hell even this week we saw Kellyn making sure that Wendell was ok with her saving herself by going after Laurel.  Wendell's just good at staying away from the drama which makes for bad tv.   The edit is doing a good job showing you that either Dom or Wendell could win depending on what the jury looks for.

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If Wendell wins I'll probably feel how most here did when Michele won. I do like Wendell though and he's on my fantasy team so I'm fine with it, but meh.

I don't really care who wins. They're all fine, but I'm not particularly rooting for or against any of them. 

I think its be hilarious if Chelsea won though. Or Kellyn.

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3 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

If Wendell wins I'll probably feel how most here did when Michele won. I do like Wendell though and he's on my fantasy team so I'm fine with it, but meh.

I don't really care who wins. They're all fine, but I'm not particularly rooting for or against any of them. 

I think its be hilarious if Chelsea won though. Or Kellyn.

Kellyn winning would ruin what would be a decent season for me.  I don't think her edit supports a win, though.  She's been kind of on the bumbling side.  Can you imagine her winners montage?  "We're Naviti strong!" cuts to Dom/Wendell strategizing with Laurel and Donathan to vote off Kellyn.  "Michael has an idol!  He didn't show it to me, but he has one!"  Cut to Michael saying he hoped his idol bluff worked.  This season hasn't been bad.  Oddly enough, I think it was stronger pre-merge, despite Naviti running the show and Malolo getting Pagonged.  Usually it's the merge part where my interest picks up, but this season it's been the opposite.  I am hoping now that Jenna/Michael are gone it does pick up, and doesn't stay boring and predictable.  I still think this season beats the last 4.  And there isn't really a winner that would totally disappoint me.  I'd be fine with Dom or Wendell first and foremost, but after that, I don't really care, as long as I don't hear "The Winner of Survivor Ghost Island, despite Ghost Island being something we barely utilized, is Kellyn."

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5 hours ago, Oscirus said:

More subtle then anything. The reason shown for donathon/Laurel agreeing to align with Dom/Wendell is because they wanted to work with Wendell. Don't remember if this was a deleted scene or not but Jenna did a confessional where she was happy to switch tribes especially because she got to meet Wendell. They even had a scene where people are waking up and are just watching Wendell work on the kitchen.  Hell even this week we saw Kellyn making sure that Wendell was ok with her saving herself by going after Laurel.  Wendell's just good at staying away from the drama which makes for bad tv.   The edit is doing a good job showing you that either Dom or Wendell could win depending on what the jury looks for.

These are some great points.  This is why I think Wendell could win.  I believe right now, Dom has the better chance of winning based on visibility.  However, his path seems too easy.  Will Kellyn and Angela pull a blindside and get Dom out?  Will it be another battle like Dom vs. Chris, but this time Wendell wins?  Surely the editors wouldn't make it this obvious.  I am not certain if both of them can make the final 3.  Perhaps with the women winning immunity, the fire challenge is between Dom and Wendell and Dom loses? In order for me to believe Dom is winning, he is going to need some doubt in his editing (He can win, but x may happen.  Or so and so are plotting to cut him).

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7 hours ago, Earlfor1 said:

Surely the editors wouldn't make it this obvious.

They make it this obvious quite regularly. I'm hoping for a Wendell win, but Dom would absolutely not surprise me (or surprise me in how little it surprised me). 

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13 hours ago, LadyChatts said:

Kellyn winning would ruin what would be a decent season for me.  I don't think her edit supports a win, though.  She's been kind of on the bumbling side.  Can you imagine her winners montage?  "We're Naviti strong!" cuts to Dom/Wendell strategizing with Laurel and Donathan to vote off Kellyn.  "Michael has an idol!  He didn't show it to me, but he has one!"  Cut to Michael saying he hoped his idol bluff worked.  

That's why it'd be hilarious to me!

6 hours ago, MissEwa said:

They make it this obvious quite regularly. 

Right! Just last season with Ben it was painfully obvious he was gonna win.

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It's never been obvious to me who's going to win.  Fan favorite-- YES, obvious.  Challenge wins are obvious from the music placement, but it gives it away seconds before the end of the challenge so no biggie. 

I do usually have a person I think *should* win, and usually the jury agrees with me, and my feelings are of course edit-driven by necessity.  So in that respect they 'give it away' to some extent.  But that's the nature of the show.  They can't show everything or use random clips strung together.  I think they do a good job of balancing suspense and the most-liked player getting the win.  

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3 hours ago, Winston9-DT3 said:

It's never been obvious to me who's going to win.

It's never dead certain, but there are a few seasons where at this point I'm like 'if it's anyone but X, then I will be shocked and confused at the edit'. Jeremy, Mike, Tyson, Cochran and Kim come to mind - the whole season felt like an inevitable march to their coronations. They made it quite obvious with Tony too but I wasn't 100% sure it wouldn't be Spencer. Phillipines was interesting because Malcolm was getting an edit that could have read this way but for some reason I was pretty sure he wasn't going to win. Kim aside (and I think that's just because she was so dominant there was no other way they could play it) these edits always seem to go to men. 

I feel like recently they've pulled back from these over-the-top obvious winner edits. Ben's was close but Chrissy was always a possibility, and Adam didn't become obvious until the final episode, for me anyway. I think if Dom wins this season it'll count in that Ben tier for me - probable, but not certain. If Wendell wins, it's more an Adam edit, without the dying mother (for now). Anyone else, and I'd be shocked. 

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