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Whimsy

S35.E12: Not Going to Roll Over and Die

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Well with Lauren's extra vote they would be OK at a 3-3 split, but really I sort of think to some degree it was a big storm of competing paranoias.  It's hard to say if they were definitely, definitely going to vote for Ben, but he acted so aggressively to keep from getting voted out that it sort of forced that scenario into being.  Like they were talking at the well, but I'm sure everyone always talks about voting for everybody at some point between ICs.  They might well have decided "not yet", if not for all the craziness that ensued with Ben making his counter-move on Lauren.

When I describe it like that it sounds good to me, and yet!  In the abstract it seems like it ought to be an amusing clusterfuck, but in fact it's just a drag.

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4 hours ago, green said:

Yet another excellent post from you.

And now it isn't even 3 to 3.  They turned on Ben.  With Lauren gone Devin and Ashley are now just an alliance of two.  If Chrissy, Ryan and Mike stay allied they are now in control getting to choose to either accept this pair into their alliance to oust Ben next time for to take Ben in to wreck his revenge on Devin and Ashley.  If Mike doesn't do his usual stupid what-the-hell stuff this group of three can now run the game for the next couple of votes because the remaining three are divided now and Ben won't trust Devin and Ashley again.

Of course that is in a pure game of strategy where advantages and idols aren't doled out like special interest bribes in Washington.

Exactly.  Not only did the main body of the 4some gut their advantage, they alienated one of their remaining 3 by virtually guaranteeing Ben's defection.  I see zero reason why Chrissy/Ryan/Mike wouldn't accept Ben as a transitory partner - which turns Ashley and Devon into a 2-person party platter, to be devoured at leisure.  And C/R/M could do so comfortable in considering Ben to be at the bottom of their new foursome, to be cut loose whenever they want.

So of course I expect C/R/M to do the stupidest thing possible, and target Ben - but I wouldn't mind being surprised.

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One extra reason I dislike Ben is the easiness he has to betray someone who trusts him. First it was Chrissy, then it was Lauren. I understand that this is an individual game but the people who end up winning are the ones who remain faithful to at least one alliance member. You can't betray all of your allies and expect to win.

Ben's wife was like 15 years younger than him or was it my imagination?

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On 8/12/2017 at 2:20 PM, ProfCrash said:
  Reveal hidden contents

 

Sarah's advantage said it was not transferable. She was the only person who could play it.

I am hearing discussion that Lauren could have taken the shell out of the fire and used it. The only person who can destroy an idol is Jeff so when Mike tossed it in the fire, Lauren could have taken it out. It was not destroyed, only slightly blackened.

Plus, as Rob mentioned in RHAP, Lauren could have given Mike a random shell and pretend it was the one that matches the idol. How could he have known the difference?

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12 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

Before this last vote he was. 

He wasn't at that tribal when you said he could be issuing ultimatums.  He'd turned against Ben with the 2 others in his alliance, which in turn led to Ben trying to get a group against them.

 

It's always funny when you see a group getting caught talking about someone else (at the well in this case), they can never keep a poker face, the same for the person finding them out.

Edited by amazingracefan

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2 hours ago, himela said:

One extra reason I dislike Ben is the easiness he has to betray someone who trusts him. First it was Chrissy, then it was Lauren. I understand that this is an individual game but the people who end up winning are the ones who remain faithful to at least one alliance member. You can't betray all of your allies and expect to win.

He wouldn't have turned on them if he hadn't overheard them talking about voting him out at the well.  In Ben's mind Lauren, Devon, and Ashley broke trust first.

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3 minutes ago, Haleth said:

He wouldn't have turned on them if he hadn't overheard them talking about voting him out at the well.  In Ben's mind Lauren, Devon, and Ashley broke trust first.

I don't really trust the edit. Mike Holloway said on RHAP that the moment he was shown walking to the well listening in the people who were talking about him (don't remember the names) was from 10 days ago. Even if Ben suspected they were thinking about voting him out, a good alliance member first tries to discuss it and then moves to great changes. It's easy for Ben to betray his allies and treat them badly. What makes him different than Russell Hantz then?

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4 hours ago, himela said:

I don't really trust the edit. Mike Holloway said on RHAP that the moment he was shown walking to the well listening in the people who were talking about him (don't remember the names) was from 10 days ago. Even if Ben suspected they were thinking about voting him out, a good alliance member first tries to discuss it and then moves to great changes. It's easy for Ben to betray his allies and treat them badly. What makes him different than Russell Hantz then?

Talking about it isn't necessarily going to change things, if anything it would just alert them to the possibility of him trying to make another alliance after they realise he knows they tried to blindside him.  You could actually ask instead why didn't they talk to Ben instead of blindsiding him, that's how pointless I think the question is.  Survivor is about blindsides, it's not Big Brother (thankfully).  Russell got to the end twice and Ben knows he has to make moves to get to the end.  He's a big target and knows it.  Boring ones like Devon and Ashley are just cruising under the radar unfortunately.

Edited by amazingracefan

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On 12/7/2017 at 1:53 PM, Silver Raven said:

Yeah, but I also remember when a reward was a car.

And I remember when Caleb almost died for salt and pepper.

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18 hours ago, amazingracefan said:

Talking about it isn't necessarily going to change things, if anything it would just alert them to the possibility of him trying to make another alliance after they realise he knows they tried to blindside him.  You could actually ask instead why didn't they talk to Ben instead of blindsiding him, that's how pointless I think the question is.  Survivor is about blindsides, it's not Big Brother (thankfully).  Russell got to the end twice and Ben knows he has to make moves to get to the end.  He's a big target and knows it.  Boring ones like Devon and Ashley are just cruising under the radar unfortunately.

This. Ben walked up and heard his alliance whispering, without him there. As soon as they saw him they started discussing something benign. It is a clear signal that they are targeting Ben. They might have decided not to go after him at that vote but it is a clear signal that he is on the bottom of his alliance. I remember bitching that Dan Foley and his cohorts all knew the pecking order in their larger alliance and the people at the bottom, Dan and Sierra, did nothing to change the situation. Dan could have changed things up by working with Mike and the other alliance but they refused to do so. Mainly because Dan was so stuck on the idiotic notion that those who flip flop don't win. In his case, those who don't flip flop don't make it to final tribal and put themselves in a position to win.

So Ben saw what was happening and knew that he was in trouble. He was smart enough to know that Lauren was the brains behind the bunch and that he had the ammo to target her. With her advantages and idol, Lauren could be turned into a threat and sold to Mike, Chrissy and Ryan. Devon and Ashley like to talk like they are making the decisions in their alliance but we know that they are not. They have some input but they are not really directing anything.

I was a bit surprised that Ben did not pull Lauren aside and try and figure out what was happening. It seems like the two of them were close enough that he could have talked to her but that would have tipped her off that there was trouble. Lauren did not have a clue that Ben was moving the way he was until Mike spilled the beans. That was brilliant game play on Mike's part. Mike, Lauren and Ryan could have simply voted with Ben and gotten Lauren out and blindsided the others, instead Mike created an open rift between the larger alliance and called into question their relationships. Devon has now said that he cannot trust Ryan and Ben because they lied to him, never mind that Devon was discussing booting Ben so Ben was right to try and change things up. So if Mike ends up at the Final with Ryan and Ben, Mike has Devon's vote. Ben is now a huge target, but also a possible goat because he has annoyed so many people.

I have enjoyed this season pretty much the entire time because so many people came to play. It is different then Millennials vs Gen X vs Whatever the hell the third tribe was because the folks in that game did not take the game personally and the folks this season are taking the game very personally. It makes the good strategic game play feel more dirty then brilliant. I have enjoyed seeing how many women have won immunity and have made it clear that they are there to play. I am fine with those very same women being mowed down because they were taken out as threats and not as weak players.

The last bunch of the game has been a bit bat shit crazy and that is fun to watch. It makes figuring out what is going to happen more challenging. I think Ben and Chrissy are likely to win.

Ben has played an aggressive game that has been a bit abrasive but there is no denying that he has played and played hard. He does have a good back story that they others seem to respect and understand. He has some obvious strikes against him, too domineering and a poor social game, but he has made some good moves and if he wins a bunch of immunities can point to that as well as his game play.

Chrissy has played an aggressive game. She started as the underdog, worked into the majority, found herself in the minority and managed to take advantage of the splinters in the majority. Toss in some immunity wins and she is in a good place at the final tribal. She has a crap social game but is good answering questions and explaining her thinking to folks at tribal. She might not be liked but I sense grudging respect for her game.

Ryan has tried to play a social game and failed miserably. Most of the post boot interviews talk about how obvious it was that he was trying to be nice to people but really wasn't willing to work with other folks. I think that his attempts at being friendly while not really being available to talk game will hurt him. He might have been more pleasant but he might get hurt by the "Mom" thing. The you don't get to be nice while stabbing me in the back thing. He was not good in challenges and I suspect that any strategic moves are likely to be seen as Chrissy's moves.

Devon has had a good idea or two but those came after someone else made the big move. Lauren brought together the four and then Devon came up with the double agent thing. Devon's talking heads make it look like he thinks he is more in charge then he really is. He is far more personable and likeable then anyone else out there but I am not sure he is going to be able to convince folks that he played a great game and I am not sure that the jury is pissed off enough to not reward the stronger players who had sucky social games.

Ashley has mainly been a follower. She has won some immunity challenges but she has not been the person pulling strings and is much more a follower.

Mike is interesting. It is clear that people like him but I am not sure that that translates to his being in a good game position. He has managed to advance himself by finding the cracks in the other alliances but he has never been able to build anything for himself. I think that there are folks who will see the playing from the underdog position and wonder he could never put himself in a more advantageous position. I think he is seen as the goofball who is fun and has a great attitude but that does not translate to a real gamer.

The thing is, the exit interviews point to what we have been seeing. The serious gamers who have been in control at various points in the game are not liked but their games are respected. It far easier to say something nice about people when they were not behind your eviction then it is about the people who took you out. The jury has to be pretty pissed to vote for the goofball or laid back nice guy over the gamers and I just don't get that feel from the exit interviews. There is anger at Chrissy and Ben but also grudging respect at their game play.

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44 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

But that's mainly just becasue Caleb is an idiot.

I believe two other people collapsed during that same episode. One needed medicals help, the other was able to recover with the help of her tribe. So while Caleb was the worst off and evacuated, the conditions were pretty brutal and did a number on more then just Caleb. No matter how people feel about the rewards, the conditions that the Survivors are dealing with are harsh, if not brutal. They are losing weight, and a good amount of it, even with the more lavish rewards. I am very happy that we are no longer hearing reports of people needing months of medical attention due to the insect bites, cuts, bruises and starvation that they encounter while playing the game. I enjoy the game and prefer to know that the people playing it do not have long term health problems related to providing my entertainment. It is similar to my reasoning for massively decreasing the amount of football I watch. It is hard for me to enjoy the game when I know that they players are permanently injuring themselves for my entertainment. I can't fully kick the habit, the game is impressive to watch, but it is not as hard for me when I don't turn the game on.

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Remember when a reward was one slice of pizza and a 3 minute phone call home? Or a beer and 10 minutes of TV time with Jeff? I'm tired of every reward being a huge meal or advantage in the game. I'd really like to see a "back to basics" season.

Yeah, but I also remember when a reward was a car.

 

And I remember when Caleb almost died for salt and pepper.

 

I remember us having this same argument twice a year for the last 14 years.

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3 hours ago, ProfCrash said:

I was a bit surprised that Ben did not pull Lauren aside and try and figure out what was happening. It seems like the two of them were close enough that he could have talked to her but that would have tipped her off that there was trouble. Lauren did not have a clue that Ben was moving the way he was until Mike spilled the beans. That was brilliant game play on Mike's part. Mike, Lauren and Ryan could have simply voted with Ben and gotten Lauren out and blindsided the others, instead Mike created an open rift between the larger alliance and called into question their relationships. Devon has now said that he cannot trust Ryan and Ben because they lied to him, never mind that Devon was discussing booting Ben so Ben was right to try and change things up. So if Mike ends up at the Final with Ryan and Ben, Mike has Devon's vote. Ben is now a huge target, but also a possible goat because he has annoyed so many people.

...

Mike is interesting. It is clear that people like him but I am not sure that that translates to his being in a good game position. He has managed to advance himself by finding the cracks in the other alliances but he has never been able to build anything for himself. I think that there are folks who will see the playing from the underdog position and wonder he could never put himself in a more advantageous position. I think he is seen as the goofball who is fun and has a great attitude but that does not translate to a real gamer.

 

See, I'm not sure I see it as 'Mike finding the cracks in other alliances" so much as 'cracks formed, the splinter group goes out of their way to pull him in for that vote and thus he lives to see another day.' 

On the other hand, I do think he pulled a good move by planting the seeds of doubt about Ben. That was an important part what when down this last episode and, if not for the idol, would have ousted a big threat. If that had worked, Mike would have had a very nice talking point at FTC, but since it didn't and he's returning to camp with Ben, I'm curious to see how things go from here.

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I am very happy that we are no longer hearing reports of people needing months of medical attention due to the insect bites, cuts, bruises and starvation that they encounter while playing the game. I enjoy the game and prefer to know that the people playing it do not have long term health problems related to providing my entertainment. It is similar to my reasoning for massively decreasing the amount of football I watch. It is hard for me to enjoy the game when I know that they players are permanently injuring themselves for my entertainment. I can't fully kick the habit, the game is impressive to watch, but it is not as hard for me when I don't turn the game on.

I get disturbed by certain challenges that really don't seem safe, like that challenge that ended up taking Penner out in FvF, where that skinny guy got dragged through a course by a big meathead, and got clocked in the head in the process. He's lucky he wasn't more seriously injured the way Penner ultimately was.

I also always hate that challenge where they try to drag people off posts and across a finish line. I see knees being twisted and all kinds of really extreme physical contact that could so easily go very wrong and it bothers me. Also, I always feel like the real purpose of that kind of challenge is that it tends to expose the bodies of the women who are being dragged across the sand in bikinis and short shorts (or who have other contestants deliberately trying to undo their tops to get them to let go to cover themselves), which bothers me even more. 

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I'm still 100% Team Ben! He kept saying you don't tell anyone about your idol! So for them to assume he didn't have one was stupid. He outplayed each and every one of them. Go Ben!!! I'm especially glad it didn't work out because while I like Ashley well enough, I am SO TIRED of people prizing "big moves" over "solid gameplay." I agree that Ben needs to go (for the others, not for me, I love him). But while it's nice to not see season after season of Pagonging, I've grown weary of watching people disobey the "Survivor" rule of not turning on your alliance before it's time. And just weary of hearing "big moves." I don't just want to watch a revue; I want a whole musical! 

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4 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

But that's mainly just becasue Caleb is an idiot.

Cambodia was way too harsh for my tastes.  But Caleb really didn't know he was playing for seasonings.  Even in post-air interviews, he talked about wanting immunity so bad.  So, yeah, I see both sides.  

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On 12/10/2017 at 4:35 AM, himela said:

Plus, as Rob mentioned in RHAP, Lauren could have given Mike a random shell and pretend it was the one that matches the idol. How could he have known the difference?

Well... by the time Lauren gave the shell to Mike, he already knew the shell had to be assembled with another part to become a true immunity idol.  I don’t recall if the fact the “other part” was the lanyard was also known to Mike - but if it was, Lauren would’ve probably had little or no luck finding a random shell which was pre-drilled for the lanyard, and thus would pass inspection.  :)

 

15 hours ago, Fretful said:

And I remember when Caleb almost died for salt and pepper.

And I remember when Caleb was about as sharp as a sackful of wet mice.

 

6 hours ago, peachmangosteen said:

But that's mainly just becasue Caleb is an idiot.

Dang - beat me to it.  But I get points for colorful idiom.  ;)

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On 12/7/2017 at 9:41 PM, eel2178 said:

Remember when a reward was one slice of pizza and a 3 minute phone call home? Or a beer and 10 minutes of TV time with Jeff? I'm tired of every reward being a huge meal or advantage in the game. I'd really like to see a "back to basics" season.

The rewards are definitely plentiful now (why is Ryan so thin?), an older guy not that long ago had to be medivaced because he ate too much at a reward.

 

On 12/7/2017 at 9:53 PM, Silver Raven said:

Yeah, but I also remember when a reward was a car.

You can't eat or drink a car.

On 12/7/2017 at 9:38 PM, piequinn35 said:

Lauren's ponderosa vid talked about the fake idol, Lauren said that it was meant for Joe first to embarrassed him, and the other jurors laughed about it.

It did seem to me that the Chrissy angle was being stressed at tribal more to try and drive more of a wedge between her and him more than anything.  The fake idol is for whoever is the target a particular week.

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On 12/10/2017 at 2:53 AM, Nashville said:

Exactly.  Not only did the main body of the 4some gut their advantage, they alienated one of their remaining 3 by virtually guaranteeing Ben's defection.  I see zero reason why Chrissy/Ryan/Mike wouldn't accept Ben as a transitory partner - which turns Ashley and Devon into a 2-person party platter, to be devoured at leisure.  And C/R/M could do so comfortable in considering Ben to be at the bottom of their new foursome, to be cut loose whenever they want.

So of course I expect C/R/M to do the stupidest thing possible, and target Ben - but I wouldn't mind being surprised.

They should target Ben. No guarantee that he goes out at F4 

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1 hour ago, jay741982 said:

They should target Ben. No guarantee that he goes out at F4 

Ahem - NOBODY is GUARANTEED to go out AT ANY TIME.  

EVER.  

Hell, everybody in the game except Ben thought Ben was going out on the last TC vote - and how did THAT turn out for them?

The moment anybody starts thinking anything in this game is "guaranteed" is the moment the Survivor gods start giggling, because that person is busily pumping up the ass in ASSumption.  Ask Lauren.

So you don't play for guarantees in Survivor - ever - because they're a fiction; they don't exist.  You play to maintain strategic power, you play the odds, and the moment one of your partners mentions "guarantee" you start looking for a new partner.

And to go after the one person left in the game you know is disaffected with your primary opponent coalition is not good strategy.

Look at it this way: if C/R/M doesn't want to eat one of its own, it has two primary foci of opposition:

  1. Ben: solo and scrambling, with nobody to trust.  Unless Ben can pull off an IC win or pull another HII out of his ass, Ben will be motivated to cut any deal with anyone so long as it keeps the target off his back at next TC - and the most attractive prospect for that would be adding his vote to the C/R/M triumvirate, because trying to work something with Devon and
  2. The Ashley/Devon duo: aside from Ben, all that remain of the Fearsome Foursome.  Each is the only trust the other has, so they're going to stay in lockstep with each other and hope to God they can divert attention away from themselves long enough to come up with a survival advantage.  

From C/R/M's perspective, Ben is an attractive prospect. Ben might be motivated to work with C/R/M because for Ben that's the closest to a sure thing for surviving the next TC.  Adding Ben's vote to theirs at TC gives C/R/M massive leverage to break up a trust couple, after which their voting bloc would be able to eliminate either Ben or the remaining A/D survivor at leisure.  

For both Devon and Ashley, the only other alternative means betraying their one and only trust relationship for the sole purpose of partnering with people they know they categorically can't trust; not a totally impossible concept, but one which puts them WAY down on the odds list for survivability - which they know - and which knowledge means they're much more likely to try a blindside flip than Ben.  

Simply put, Devon and Ashley have something to lose by partnering with C/R/M; Ben doesn't.

Which raises the question: what would be best from Ben's perspective?

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I am curious to see if they put another idol into play?! The one that Lauren had & Dr. Mike threw away should make an new one available, right? If so, Ben needs to find it to stay in the game. The way this season has been playing Ben could side with Ryan, Chrissy & Dr. Mike to take out either Devon or Ashley. That's if they want him. LOL!!!

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I may well be remembering incorrectly, but didn't Mike go on a weird Tribal rant weeks ago about playing with integrity?  If he did then he should have given the shell to Lauren.

And if Lauren really wanted show solidarity with Mike, she should have given him the whole idol.

I hate the Loved Ones episodes because I think it's downright cruel to not let everyone spend the afternoon with their loved ones, even if some don't get a food reward.

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3 hours ago, Brookside said:

I may well be remembering incorrectly, but didn't Mike go on a weird Tribal rant weeks ago about playing with integrity?  If he did then he should have given the shell to Lauren.

And if Lauren really wanted show solidarity with Mike, she should have given him the whole idol.

I hate the Loved Ones episodes because I think it's downright cruel to not let everyone spend the afternoon with their loved ones, even if some don't get a food reward.

He did the rant to annoy them and get them to vote for him when he played the idol.

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18 hours ago, Nashville said:

Ahem - NOBODY is GUARANTEED to go out AT ANY TIME.  

EVER.  

Hell, everybody in the game except Ben thought Ben was going out on the last TC vote - and how did THAT turn out for them?

The moment anybody starts thinking anything in this game is "guaranteed" is the moment the Survivor gods start giggling, because that person is busily pumping up the ass in ASSumption.  Ask Lauren.

So you don't play for guarantees in Survivor - ever - because they're a fiction; they don't exist.  You play to maintain strategic power, you play the odds, and the moment one of your partners mentions "guarantee" you start looking for a new partner.

And to go after the one person left in the game you know is disaffected with your primary opponent coalition is not good strategy.

Look at it this way: if C/R/M doesn't want to eat one of its own, it has two primary foci of opposition:

  1. Ben: solo and scrambling, with nobody to trust.  Unless Ben can pull off an IC win or pull another HII out of his ass, Ben will be motivated to cut any deal with anyone so long as it keeps the target off his back at next TC - and the most attractive prospect for that would be adding his vote to the C/R/M triumvirate, because trying to work something with Devon and
  2. The Ashley/Devon duo: aside from Ben, all that remain of the Fearsome Foursome.  Each is the only trust the other has, so they're going to stay in lockstep with each other and hope to God they can divert attention away from themselves long enough to come up with a survival advantage.  

From C/R/M's perspective, Ben is an attractive prospect. Ben might be motivated to work with C/R/M because for Ben that's the closest to a sure thing for surviving the next TC.  Adding Ben's vote to theirs at TC gives C/R/M massive leverage to break up a trust couple, after which their voting bloc would be able to eliminate either Ben or the remaining A/D survivor at leisure.  

For both Devon and Ashley, the only other alternative means betraying their one and only trust relationship for the sole purpose of partnering with people they know they categorically can't trust; not a totally impossible concept, but one which puts them WAY down on the odds list for survivability - which they know - and which knowledge means they're much more likely to try a blindside flip than Ben.  

Simply put, Devon and Ashley have something to lose by partnering with C/R/M; Ben doesn't.

Which raises the question: what would be best from Ben's perspective?

Your analysis is interesting, but it assumes that Mike is part of an alliance with Chrissy and Ryan (if that's what you meant), which I'm not sure is the case (abbreviations are confusing, you know!). I think Mike will throw his vote wherever the wind takes him at this point, but maybe it's just me. 

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9 hours ago, NutMeg said:

Your analysis is interesting, but it assumes that Mike is part of an alliance with Chrissy and Ryan (if that's what you meant), which I'm not sure is the case (abbreviations are confusing, you know!). I think Mike will throw his vote wherever the wind takes him at this point, but maybe it's just me. 

Not assuming Mike is allied Chrissy and Ryan per se - but I do believe three things about Mike...

  1. In the end every player is playing for themselves, of course, but Mike is easily the most unabashedly mercenary of the bunch - which also means Mike is the most brazen flip-flopper remaining in the game. Mike has zero qualms about hooking up with whatever group he thinks will take him further in the short term.
  2. Mike is also the most paranoid player in the game, which means he does not make decisions based upon who he trusts the most - since he trusts no one - but rather upon who he distrusts the least.
  3. Mike has not proven himself to be a particularly strong strategic player, but he does like to be on top (i.e., on the winning side of the numbers).

...all of which lead me to believe Mike is more likely to work with Chrissy/Ryan than with Devon/Ashley.  ATEOTD, though, the most attractive pair (strategically speaking) will be the pair with whom Ben cuts a deal.

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The funniest part of this episode was Ashley's sweet Dad crying over every single loved one visit even though he doesn't even know these people, while Lauren's sister was just like "Whatever" and staring off at Lauren / the beach.

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