S13.E03: Blue Angel

[Aethera]

Quote

When successful businessmen in Detroit are targeted by an anger-driven power-assertive Unsub, the BAU is called in to investigate.

[ReidFan]

saw the two promos....omg, it looks & sounds like the worst kind of torture porn :(  . Hope it's not too graphic

[Willowy]

I hope that little we saw in that clip is all we see. I don't need details of seeing a guy's junk cut off, thanks show.

[MMC]

Does anyone else besides me fear that now they are on an hour later the show just might feel at liberty to up the level of torture porn?

[ReidFan]

it wouldn't bode well here. It's an hour earlier, and if it goes that route, it'll end up being taken off the air here because that kind of content isn't allowed this early in the evening. And there's bound to be complaints.

:-\

[ReidFan]

SPOILER until after 10 pm :)

 

 

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.......

 

well, relief wise--there's really no more torture porn than what we saw in the promos. 

This one was for the Simmons fans.

a  3 or 4 on the Reid-O-Meter. Not one i'd ever wanna watch again but it wasn't 'Sick Day' or 'Inner Beauty'  awful either.

The Linda the bank teller crap at the beginning had me wondering first if Reid's been *dating* her......until it became apparent he was talking about an aspect of a seminar (I'm presuming he means, one of the ones he's gonna be giving on his 100/30)

 

meh

[Willowy]

I like intensity, and the feeling of actual danger, but torture porn isn't welcome in my show. I know it happens in real life with serial killers, but the last time it really happened on CM was in Proof with the acid and I hate that fucking episode and refused to watch it again (even though I watched the Reid/JJ fight like a million times on youtube).

Thanks, Reidfan!

[Hotchgirl18]

I'm watching. Not bad. It's not AS torture porny as I'm thought. We don't see the unsub til the near end. Kept me guessing on who the killer is. 

Prentiss is sort of growing on me. Just a LITTLE. Simmons heavy. It's not a fantastic episode, but it's not god awful. 

[Annber03]

2 hours ago, ReidFan said:

The Linda the bank teller crap at the beginning had me wondering first if Reid's been *dating* her......until it became apparent he was talking about an aspect of a seminar (I'm presuming he means, one of the ones he's gonna be giving on his 100/30)

I thought that, too! Or rather, I thought he was talking about a girl he was interested in, at least. I have never heard of that whole "Linda problem" thing before, will have to hit up Google and study it further. I liked that they made mention of his seminars, and that he's thinking about what sorts of subjects he wants to teach and discuss.

As for the case, there were parts of it I didn't quite catch, 'cause my TV channel was acting up a bit and blanked out at one point for a brief moment (around the time Matt went to keep that Kimberly company for the night). Did see most of it, though, and what a weird, twisty case. On the one hand, I like that the unsub wasn't who I initially thought, but on the other hand, it seemed a bit anti-climactic, somehow? When I saw the promo and the sneak peeks, initially I was starting to wonder if it'd be revealed that the unsub was the woman meeting with these guys, and she was retaliating against men in general. Especially when Garcia mentioned all the men in the family dying-could've been a plot among the women of the family in general. I feel like that might've been a more interesting route (granted, they already had that in "Pleasure is My Business", but considering how similar a lot of their cases tend to be, well...).

Was nice to see a glimpse into Matt's home life, though. 

Edited October 12, 2017 by Annber03

[Hotchgirl18]

1 minute ago, Annber03 said:

I thought that, too! Or rather, I thought he was talking about a girl he was interested in, at least. I have never heard of that whole "Linda problem" thing before, will have to hit up Google and study it further. I liked that they made mention of his seminars, and that he's thinking about what sorts of subjects he wants to teach and discuss.

As for the case, there were parts of it I didn't quite catch, 'cause my TV channel was acting up a bit and blanked out at one point for a brief moment (around the time Matt went to keep that Kimberly company for the night). Weird, twisty case-on the one hand, I like that the unsub wasn't who I initially thought, but on the other hand, it seemed a bit anti-climactic, somehow? When I saw the promo and the sneak peeks, initially I was starting to wonder if it'd be revealed that the unsub was the woman meeting with these guys, and she was retaliating against men in general. Especially when Garcia mentioned all the men in the family dying-could've been a plot among the women of the family in general. I feel like that might've been a more interesting route (granted, they already had that in "Pleasure is My Business", but considering how similar a lot of their cases tend to be, well...).

Was nice to see a glimpse into Matt's home life, though. 

I thought it was gonna be that prostitute. And I thought she was gonna pull a foyet and pretend to be a victim and the team would be played. 

[Willowy]

I loved it, so did Willow. She's the one who brought up "It's like old Criminal Minds, mom."  and I loved that. Tristan hated that the guy was able to remove the knife from his own back, as she had sunk it in really deep and way lower, but he liked the twists the story took. I think Chris Barbour may be a very nice addition to the writer's room, and this is the second episode Sharat Raju has directed, his first being "Keeper", last season.

I wonder if he's a CM fan? It seemed like it, to me.

[Annber03]

Just now, Willowy said:

Tristan hated that the guy was able to remove the knife from his own back, as she had sunk it in really deep and way lower

My mom commented on that, too :p. She was like, "Okay, how'd he manage to get that out and still be okay?" She also gasped when she first saw the knife in his back. 
"

[CrimeFan12]

I enjoyed the episode.  Kept me guessing the entire time and they kept the Unsub identity hidden until the last fifteen minutes.   

[iRarelyWatchTV36]

As someone who never watched Beyond Borders, is that the same wife & kid family unit that Simmons had on there as well?  And if so, I gotta question the relief she expressed at having him closer to home when they start the episode off with sexy times and then 4 rug rats rush their bedroom at the end.  He may not have been able to spend enough time at home (while with the International Unit), but judging by the desire to start work late - if even go in at all - on certain days & the litter size, he made the most of those infrequent opportunities in the past.  And going off that, they don't exactly make you wonder which team member(s) will be the focus of the episode.  Knew Simmons would be in the spotlight when they started off with him & the missus.

I might be alone in this, but I feel like Reid has been intentionally sidelined a bit in the past couple episodes - not given field duties at the start.  I realize he is still 'recovering' from prison & Cat, but when the doling out of assignments always ends with "Reid, you're with me as we set up at the local office", I just groan internally and wonder when they'll let him off his leash.  And the "you're with me" lines honestly come off as sounding more like an adult decorating words to tell a child that "I need you close by to keep an eye on you".  Maybe I'm not seeing it as its meant, and its more of a 'looking out for a friend' thing by Prentiss, but feels more controlling than helpful.

I'm glad that they changed things up a little bit in the UnSub motivation department this episode, in that 'Daddy was protecting his daughter' and not the usual 99.9%-of-the-time 'jilted lover' revenge angle.

Still with the Garvez cutesy crap.  Sorry, but I'm not a fan and never have been.  Really not a fan of Garcia's constant "oops, I made that sound so sexual when talking to you, again, Luke!".   It was tolerable between her & Morgan because that was already an established thing between them all the way back in the pilot episode.  Now, with this Garvez dynamic, it just grates on the nerves like no other. 

This review came out overly negative and more so than I originally intended, but just some general thoughts on the overall parts of the show that don't directly involve the UnSubs.

[Willowy]

I've been over it a few times in my brain, but still don't know why this episode was titled Blue Angel. Shouldn't if have been Blue Siren?

Did I miss something?

[Old Dog]

It was OK. I guess it underlined just how important the characters are to the show now. If, like me, you are only interested in Reid and the occasional times they let snarky Rossi out and you either don't like or don't particularly care about the other characters then the story has to be really banging to make up for that. And it wasn't. And there are too many characters for sure. Thinking back on it I had to wonder if Tara was in it at all but she did have about one line then seemed to "pull a Reid" and disappear.

And for years I've been one of those complaining bitterly about the lack of profiling in recent times. Well lookee here, there was actually quite a lot of profiling in this episode - and yet somehow they made it not very interesting. And the denoument itself just seemed to happen without any real sense of jeopardy or anticipation. Also why was Simmons out in the alley after the unsub on his own - he should have had back up. It was probably solely to put the focus on him by giving him a "dramatic" solo takedown but honestly it would have made more sense to me if when the unsub had him on the floor with a knife to his throat, Prentiss appeared and bopped the unsub on the head. The knife in the unsub's back didn't seem to slow him down at all and he ended up sitting demurely in the back of a police car! I'd swear there was at least 5 inches of blood on that knife when he pulled it out.

I liked that there was profiling but wish it was more engaging. I liked that Reid is slowly returning to himself and is back in tie and the soft maroon cardigan and I like especially that they finally seem to know how to light night scenes so you can tell what's happening. But overall it wasn't terribly interesting and not a keeper.

[Danielg342]

So I missed this because of the MLB Playoffs...is this worth a look?

[normasm]

Pretty awful, IMO. The only thing stiffer than Henney's acting was the writing he and everyone were tasked with presenting. Was this written by a retread writer from CMBB? If so, not a good hire. The wifey scenes were eyeroll worthy, only designed to "Morgan" Simmons (at least he's up to the task of eye candy). You could feel the struggle to have enough for everyone to say, and Prentiss had to assign 4 different teams at one point! I felt sorry for the director having to block all that mess out.

For heaven's sake, the Round Table room was SRO, did you notice that? There were so many people in that conference room they apparently didn't have enough chairs!

The crimes were over-the-top, and the supposed trigger, Kimberly, was not convincing as a siren of any sort (although the actress was beautiful, and served to perk me up a little at the end in hopes something interesting would happen). I hope this is the last focus on Simmons this season. No need to watch this one again.

Edited October 12, 2017 by normasm

[Annber03]

3 hours ago, Old Dog said:

Thinking back on it I had to wonder if Tara was in it at all but she did have about one line then seemed to "pull a Reid" and disappear.

She was working with Reid on sorting out the contents of the video for a portion of the episode. 

Quote

Also why was Simmons out in the alley after the unsub on his own - he should have had back up. It was probably solely to put the focus on him by giving him a "dramatic" solo takedown but honestly it would have made more sense to me if when the unsub had him on the floor with a knife to his throat, Prentiss appeared and bopped the unsub on the head.

That's a good point. Especially considering all this team had just been through, and the recent loss of a teammate. Emily would definitely want to be watching these guys like a hawk as a result. 

6 hours ago, Willowy said:

I've been over it a few times in my brain, but still don't know why this episode was titled Blue Angel. Shouldn't if have been Blue Siren?

Did I miss something?

I was wondering about that, too. Maybe they used the word "angel" because of the way Kimberly's mom tried to protect her? Or because Kimberly was an innocent girl who got wrapped up in a sketchy life? Best theory I can think of, anyway. 

[MMC]

1 hour ago, normasm said:

 Was this written by a retread writer from CMBB? 

The writer of this episode was Chris Barbour. And yes he was one of the writers that had been brought over from Beyond Boredom.

Edited October 12, 2017 by MMC

[JMO]

It didn’t record, so I had to go out of my way to watch it on demand.  I think this happened once last year, when they were bumped by the debates one week, and the titles were thrown off.  I hope it catches up next week---can’t stay up til 10 to make sure the DVR starts.  Hate watching on demand, because of the ads, and no fast-forwarding.  

Thought Reid was too back to himself already, but without knowing what happens in the episode that was postponed, I can’t make too much of that yet.  (I'll make more of it next week.)

Was put off to hear Garcia call Reid ‘Spence’, not just because it’s no longer special, but because she never calls him by his real name. 

Just waaayyyy too many people on this team.  Lines get cut, and I can’t imagine it’s fun as an actor to not be able to say more than a few words at a time.  I know MGG can speak volumes with his eyes, but the camera would need to be on his face for that.  Norm’s right.  They can’t even all fit around the table any more. 

It’s no fun trying to figure out who the unsub is when the answer requires 30 seconds of convoluted exposition regarding previously unmentioned characters. 

Okay, now we know who Simmons is.  Check.  More Reid, please.

There are waaaayyyy too many people on this team.

[Aethera]

Another good guest star - Gypsy!  

Overall, I thought this was middling. It didn't feel like a retread of a previous episode, but it also didn't feel like that interesting of an unsub. I don't enjoy "tempt the characters to stray" storylines at all, so I'm glad they didn't go there with Simmons. I don't mind focus on various characters, but it did feel very "did everyone get their line today? Ok, good".  And I also find the Garcia/Luke thing annoying, not so much because of WHAT it is, but because it's so one-note. When you have this many characters, why have them use their one scene to repeat themselves?

[MMC]

1 hour ago, JMO said:

. 

Just waaayyyy too many people on this team.  Lines get cut, and I can’t imagine it’s fun as an actor to not be able to say more than a few words at a time.  I know MGG can speak volumes with his eyes, but the camera would need to be on his face for that.  Norm’s right.  They can’t even all fit around the table any more. 

 

I agree that there are too damn many people and for the reasons you've sited there and some others. I can't believe the people running this show haven't taken notice of any this. But then again maybe they have. However they are powerless to do anything about it since it was the network(s) decision to have that many people in this cast. Now the excuse was that this was for scheduling purposes. My question is, did they have to make every single one of these newbies full time cast members, could not the same thing have been accomplished had they choose instead to have  a couple of them as recurring .

[Willowy]

I don't think Reid is there yet. He's surely rumpled and disheveled (not the dapper darling he usually is), but he did show his brain is back on-point, at least. I teared up when he started going off, just like normal. And loved it when Matt said "Or... just what Dr. Reid said."

I wonder if episode after next, he'll be a bit more smoothed-out.

Also, @MMC, I don't see scheduling purposes as an excuse. It's actually a reason. The show doesn't want to be put into the same situation like they were when they abruptly had to fire an actor. Big, gaping hole, then scramble to fill it. More actors, more insurance.

[JMO]

Didn't want to go too far off the topic of the episode, so I put my comment on the padding of the team in the 'Criminal Minds Analysis' thread.

[Mariana]

1 hour ago, Willowy said:

I don't think Reid is there yet. He's surely rumpled and disheveled (not the dapper darling he usually is), but he did show his brain is back on-point, at least. I teared up when he started going off, just like normal. And loved it when Matt said "Or... just what Dr. Reid said."

I wonder if episode after next, he'll be a bit more smoothed-out.

Also, @MMC, I don't see scheduling purposes as an excuse. It's actually a reason. The show doesn't want to be put into the same situation like they were when they abruptly had to fire an actor. Big, gaping hole, then scramble to fill it. More actors, more insurance.

I don't agree with more actor more insurance, when Matthew take his 2 or 3 episodes off people who are not as informed as us will keep asking for him and since he is there since the beginning won't care about Adam or Daniel. Hell!!! people still complain about Shemar leaving and he wasn't fired.

Still think they can get rid of Alvez/Simmons and Tara.

Edited October 12, 2017 by Mariana

[Willowy]

Oh I agree that the team is too large, but whether you agree on the "insurance" aspect of it or not, that is one reason the show is doing it, according to the people who work there.

[illdoc]

I had a whole 'nother scenerio going, once the marriage license said "Janel Benjamin". In my scenerio, "Janel Benjamin" was born "Benjamin Janel" and was transgender. She's the one who killed Kimberly's real mom, in order to steal Kimberly. Why she suddenly decided to kill Kim's "clients" I hadn't decided yet.

[iRarelyWatchTV36]

I understand and even somewhat agree with 'insurance' reason for over-staffing the main BAU team, that said......

I would have no problem with all the team members if they could use them right, but due to the ~43 minutes worth of time in an hour-block, you just can't.  To properly use the amount of team members in each episode, you'd have to either run 2 or 3 separate cases each episode - OR - spend much more time breaking down what each pair or 3 sub-team members are doing in their part of the overall pursuit to find the UnSub, instead of the meager few lines per person we usually get before quickly shifting focus elsewhere.

And also as well, more time needs to be devoted to non-case aspects.  I'll admit that I'm not really all that interested in Simmons' home life, but maybe my opinion could be swayed a bit if we got more than just the implication of sex at the beginning and then a brief visual reminder that they have kids at the very end.

TLDR;  there's just not enough available time per episode to use such a big team effectively  (effective in regards to keeping a viewer truly engaged, that is).

[Hotchgirl18]

Well, apparently the unsub was going after guys because his daughter became a prostitute and was upset about it. Considering he was a hitman, he didn't turn out too great himself. Pot kettle black. 

[iRarelyWatchTV36]

Another complaint I could make is how dumb do the writers take most of the audience for?  Highlighting the 'intimate time' between Simmons & wife at the start, then having Kimberly come on to him later??  The moment she came out in the cleavage-show nighty and hit the bottle - while he was on the phone with his wife, no less - it was glaringly obvious that she'd make a pass at him.  But no, we had to be reminded of his family and marriage vows, as well as his faithfulness to both.  Thanks for dumbing it down for us, writers.

Edited October 12, 2017 by iRarelyWatchTV36

[Hotchgirl18]

34 minutes ago, iRarelyWatchTV36 said:

Another complaint I could make is how dumb do the writers take most of the audience for?  Highlighting the 'intimate time' between Simmons & wife at the start, then having Kimberly come on to him later??  The moment she came out in the cleavage-show nighty and hit the bottle - while he was on the phone with his wife, no less - it was glaringly obvious that she'd make a pass at him.  But no, we had to be reminded of his family and marriage vows, as well as his faithfulness to both.  Thanks for dumbing it down for us, writers.

Example of Messer 's childish soap opera vision. 

[UncleChuck]

Quote

Also why was Simmons out in the alley after the unsub on his own - he should have had back up.

Because getting surprised/attacked from behind in a dark room/alley used to be Morgan's job...and he's gone now, so...

[Hotchgirl18]

So what's Luke's job,then?

[Mariana]

32 minutes ago, Hotchgirl18 said:

So what's Luke's job,then?

Fooling around with Garcia

[iRarelyWatchTV36]

9 hours ago, Mariana said:

Fooling around with Garcia

Which he - they both, actually - is horrible at.

Maybe it was down to KV & SM having a chemistry that KV & AR don't, but the Garcia & Morgan banter was on a level that felt so much more natural and smooth than Garcia & Alvez could ever even begin to hope to reach.

Edited October 13, 2017 by iRarelyWatchTV36

[ReidGirl]

24 minutes ago, iRarelyWatchTV36 said:

Which he - they both, actually - is horrible at.

Maybe it was down to KV & SM having a chemistry that KV & AR don't, but the Garcia & Morgan banter was on a level that felt so much more natural and smooth than Garcia & Alvez could ever even begin to hope to reach.

To be honest I never really liked Morgan/Garcia banter as well in later seasons. These days, I am just looking forward to scenes with Reid in it. I still don't care about Tara and Matt. I don't even realise when Tara is not in any episode.

They could have used some later episode when MGG is not around to focus on Matt. Now I want them to focus a little on how Reid is coping after the prison.

[iRarelyWatchTV36]

18 minutes ago, ReidGirl said:

To be honest I never really liked Morgan/Garcia banter as well in later seasons. These days, I am just looking forward to scenes with Reid in it. I still don't care about Tara and Matt. I don't even realise when Tara is not in any episode.

I don't dislike the team members because they take screen time away from my fave character (Reid), but its the use of that screen time that is mishandled is what I have a problem with.  Taking this episode for instance, we had ~4 to 5 minutes of 43 used up to show us (or at least its implied to be the case) that Simmons likes to skip work - and schmoozing his old lady into it as well - just to have sex.  And then that the kids have to storm their parents bedroom to spend time with them (or at least him).

18 minutes ago, ReidGirl said:

They could have used some later episode when MGG is not around to focus on Matt. Now I want them to focus a little on how Reid is coping after the prison.

I had this problem with the late-season episode last season to focus on Walker and his dying buddy.   Instead of being in the middle of proactively working to get an innocent teammate out of prison, they dropped everything to solve a not-dead man's murder and claim it was a serial to make sure the bosses let them.

Why wasn't that episode one of the few that MGG always takes off?  The writers and EM really make me scratch my head sometimes.

Edited October 13, 2017 by iRarelyWatchTV36

[ReidGirl]

4 hours ago, iRarelyWatchTV36 said:

I don't dislike the team members because they take screen time away from my fave character (Reid), but its the use of that screen time that is mishandled is what I have a problem with. 

I dont dislike them becuase they take screen time away from Reid, I am just not invested in them enough as I am in other ”veteran” characters. I watch the show these days mainly for Reid and team interaction. Matt being a wooden actor does not help the cause as well.

 

4 hours ago, iRarelyWatchTV36 said:

I had this problem with the late-season episode last season to focus on Walker and his dying buddy.   Instead of being in the middle of proactively working to get an innocent teammate out of prison, they dropped everything to solve a not-dead man's murder and claim it was a serial to make sure the bosses let them.

Why wasn't that episode one of the few that MGG always takes off?

Agree with this completely.

Edited October 13, 2017 by ReidGirl

[idiotwaltz]

On 2017/10/12 at 9:26 PM, JMO said:

Was put off to hear Garcia call Reid ‘Spence’, not just because it’s no longer special, but because she never calls him by his real name. 

Yeah, I thought that was weird too. I only ever really re-watch Seasons 2 to 7 and apart from JJ, I don't recall anyone ever calling Reid "Spence." Sometimes the team would call him Spencer but "Spence" really crept up ... last season? (Honestly I don't remember 90% of what happened in Seasons 8 to 12 aside from the prison arc and Entropy.) 

To be honest, I don't find Matt Simmons any more or less interesting than Stephen Walker. Or Kate Callahan. At least we kind of got to know Blake. I want to like Simmons because I'm glad that there is an Asian in the main cast, but sorry, I got too bored. Cute kids though. 

I got a good laugh out of the Linda problem, because that's my boss' name. She's not a bank teller. It's good that Reid seems  into teaching his seminar but he really needs to shave. 

As for the case ... I was waiting for my hard disk to defrag during the episode, and I felt more tension about the defragging than the case. Then again, I hadn't backed up my vacation photos, so that may have influenced things. 

Edited October 13, 2017 by idiotwaltz

[JMO]

6 minutes ago, idiotwaltz said:

As for the case ... I was waiting for my hard disk to defrag during the episode, and I felt more tension about the defragging than the case. Then again, I hadn't backed up my vacation photos, so that may have influenced things. 

Actually, it probably would have helped if they'd defragged the team.  I had the impression that it was an okay case, but there were too many moving parts, and too much of it delivered by exposition (including pretty much all of Reid's contribution---we hardly got to see him at work, because there wasn't time to show it) to make it intriguing.  

[ReidFan]

JJ, Rossi, Prentiss, and now Garcia have all called Reid 'Spence'.  JJ has the longest history of doing so,  it's happened with the others more recently. I think it just speaks to how  much closer to the 'older core' of the members Reid is now than he was, before prison etc. 

[JMO]

Overall, there's a lot less of them calling one another by their last names, so they have to call him something.  I'm just not used to Garcia using anyone's real name when addressing them. 

I used to think they called everyone (except JJ) by their last names because it was less likely they'd have confusion in the field, should they get an agent or LEO with the same first name.  Then I realized that Gideon, Morgan, Reid, and even Prentiss had last names that were also first names.  

Edited October 13, 2017 by JMO

[Hotchgirl18]

7 hours ago, ReidGirl said:

To be honest I never really liked Morgan/Garcia banter as well in later seasons. These days, I am just looking forward to scenes with Reid in it. I still don't care about Tara and Matt. I don't even realise when Tara is not in any episode.

They could have used some later episode when MGG is not around to focus on Matt. Now I want them to focus a little on how Reid is coping after the prison.

It used to be that Morgan and Garcia had a cute, funny banter every now and then. In later seasons, it was borderline consensual sexual harassment. Lol. 

[Danielg342]

For "dull".

Always good to see Kelly Frye on my screen. Oh, and Solomon Shiv was pretty menacing as Gabriel Merza. I also think Brandon Jay McLaren was pretty good as Captain Adrian Scott, although the writing let him down considerably.

Other than that...this was really just a "talker" that had a twist I didn't see coming...but, it's a twist this show has used far too often.

(So the UnSub is killing because their family is messed up...how original...)

I know it's anathema for many here to see the UnSub early, but I think this one would have benefited from an episode dedicated to him. Not just because Shiv was actually entertaining but also because this was an episode whose emotional impact was familial abandonment. It would have been nice if we had seen more of Merza grapple with his family issues, and maybe use his male victims as a way finding out where his daughter was.

Because that's another thing this episode whiffed on- how did Merza link "Dasha" to his daughter, Kimberly? It's not like you could just go to the site and find the user's real name- it's supposed to be clandestine.

I also say, "good to know Matt Simmons is a good family man and that he'd never stray from his wife no matter the circumstances"...but there was part of me that thought, Simmons hooking up with Kimberly could have made sense.

Just once I'd like to see someone who's family life isn't all roses. Someone who's name isn't Reid, that is.

Eh...whatever. It wouldn't have saved a dull episode anyway.

[crowsworks]

included the fav TV trope that anytime some one starts a fire ----no matter if they don't smoke --- they pull a big old Zippo out and toss it into the gas soaked area. 

[Danielg342]

On 11/10/2017 at 11:34 PM, Annber03 said:

I have never heard of that whole "Linda problem" thing before, will have to hit up Google and study it further.

The Linda problem is very real. Reid didn't explain it very well, but what it involves is that people will generally assume that the probability of two likely (but independent) events occurring together is greater than the likelihood of one event occurring, when in fact the opposite is true.

The reason is simple mathematics. Probability is based on percentage, and to calculate the probability of two events occurring together, you have to multiply the percentages together (since the two events are completely independent of each other). Since percentages are fractions of 100 (so 70% is 70/100) and when you multiply fractions, you multiply both top halves together and both bottom halves together (so 70/100 x 60/100 is 4200/10000), meaning you're invariably left with a smaller number (since 1/100 is 0.01, and 100 x 100 is 10000, and 1/10000 is 0.0001).

So...

If Linda being a feminist is 90% likely and,

If Linda being a bank teller is 80% likely,

90% x 80% is 90/100 x 80/100 = 7200/10000 = 72/100, which is 72%.

Meaning the likelihood of Linda being both a feminist and a bank teller is actually less than if she was one or the other.

Why do people get this wrong? We're taught to look for patterns, so when we're presented with a scenario where we perceive a pattern to occur, we see it even if the pattern shouldn't be there.

In the Linda problem, we're told that as a college student, she was active in social justice and anti-nuclear demonstrations, and we're told she now works as a bank teller. We're then asked what's the likelihood of her being a feminist as well as being a bank teller as opposed to the likelihood of her just being a bank teller, and, since we know about Linda's activist past, we naturally assume she'd continue doing that as well as become a bank teller.

However, since the act of becoming an activist and becoming a bank teller are two separate events, natural probability tells us the likelihood of both occurring is not as high as one or the other occurring.

[Hotchgirl18]

14 hours ago, Danielg342 said:

The Linda problem is very real. Reid didn't explain it very well, but what it involves is that people will generally assume that the probability of two likely (but independent) events occurring together is greater than the likelihood of one event occurring, when in fact the opposite is true.

The reason is simple mathematics. Probability is based on percentage, and to calculate the probability of two events occurring together, you have to multiply the percentages together (since the two events are completely independent of each other). Since percentages are fractions of 100 (so 70% is 70/100) and when you multiply fractions, you multiply both top halves together and both bottom halves together (so 70/100 x 60/100 is 4200/10000), meaning you're invariably left with a smaller number (since 1/100 is 0.01, and 100 x 100 is 10000, and 1/10000 is 0.0001).

So...

If Linda being a feminist is 90% likely and,

If Linda being a bank teller is 80% likely,

90% x 80% is 90/100 x 80/100 = 7200/10000 = 72/100, which is 72%.

Meaning the likelihood of Linda being both a feminist and a bank teller is actually less than if she was one or the other.

Why do people get this wrong? We're taught to look for patterns, so when we're presented with a scenario where we perceive a pattern to occur, we see it even if the pattern shouldn't be there.

In the Linda problem, we're told that as a college student, she was active in social justice and anti-nuclear demonstrations, and we're told she now works as a bank teller. We're then asked what's the likelihood of her being a feminist as well as being a bank teller as opposed to the likelihood of her just being a bank teller, and, since we know about Linda's activist past, we naturally assume she'd continue doing that as well as become a bank teller.

However, since the act of becoming an activist and becoming a bank teller are two separate events, natural probability tells us the likelihood of both occurring is not as high as one or the other occurring.

The events have to be mutually exclusive, right? One doesn't affect the other. 

[Danielg342]

2 minutes ago, Hotchgirl18 said:

The events have to be mutually exclusive, right? One doesn't affect the other. 

That's right. The Linda problem involves the tendency to perceive two mutually exclusive events are connected when they do not have to be.

[senin]

Daniel, thank you for explaining it. I had never heard of The Linda problem and I didn't understand anything !! I understand it much better now!