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Show world vs Real world: Probable Procedures and Processes


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I don't know one way or the other, but I'd be surprised if the Designated Survivor wears a grubby college sweatshirt while serving as the DS.  At the very least, the DS should have a change of clothes.

I'd also like to think they'd want him to wear a suit while being sworn in.

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I think the probability of the DS being called into service is low enough that he could wear a sweatshirt and jeans while serving.  He was basically just sitting around watching the State of the Union on TV, why not be comfortable?  I do think they'd give him a chance to put on a suit before swearing him in though. The way they did it made it seem like swearing him in was like putting out a fire, some sort of emergency that had to be done immediately!  Maybe, but still I think they had more wiggle room than that.

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Well, it is an emergency. The country can't be without a president and swearing him in makes it official and gives him the power to make decisions and take action.

There's real-life precedent. Jackie Kennedy still wore her blood and brains covered pink suit to witness Lyndon Johnson being sworn in before their plane left Dallas, even though she probably had a change of clothes handy on the plane.

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The DS is one of those odd things that are necessary but you pray you never have to use. Like fire extinguishers and CM detectors. It seems kind of odd that it was so casual. You want to make sure your emergency back-up would work, if you needed it. Wouldn't a POTUS or their staff make sure that the most important back-up plan in the US had a vague clue as to what might be expected of him? Sure, it's easy to ignore and pretend that the DS is a waste of time but wouldn't you want to have some prep, if you were chosen? I would. Wouldn't you, if you were POTUS, pick someone who may be capable if needed? I would. Just a few thoughts. 

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2 minutes ago, Danielg342 said:

Just to play Devil's Advocate here, whom the President picks as their DS is a policy decision. Thus, it could be interpreted as a sign of arrogance that the President thought "so low" of the job that he hired Kirkman for the job.

True, I have no idea how a DS is chosen. 

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Wait a minute.

A terrorist attack levels the Capitol Building and kills everyone in the Continuity of Government chain down to SecHUD, and he is not immediately rushed aboard Air Force One and sequestered in flight for the next 24 hours?

We have the technology to do that, with in-flight refueling.  In the wake of such a massive strike, POTUS would be infinitely safer flying an unknown and classified course and escorted by USAF F-22s than in any land-based strongpoint.

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I vaguely remember back in the Cold War days, and with fears of nuclear strikes taking out everybody, there was some sort of line of succession that went way, way, down the list, including mayors of small towns nowhere near the Capital.  There was an article in the local newspaper in the small town in Northern California that I lived in, that said that the mayor of the town was in the list of successors.

I do think that if the Cabinet Secretary or Senate President or House Speaker is not a natural born citizen, he or she would not be eligible to be President, and so would probably not be chosen as the Designated Survivor.

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Without Congress, the DS incredibly vulnerable. Because as of right now, if something happens to him then there is no clear successor past that point. Tom Clancy did something similar in Executive Orders about 15 years ago. One of the major plot points was that without a Congress you cannot appoint official cabinet members. Only acting ones that do not have a place in the line of succession. Nor can a vice president be put into place. Or the Senate leadership obviously that are also a large part of the succession. 

 

The Secret Service would be absolutely about to lose their minds right about now. Not only did they just lose a bunch of agents and principles, but if they lose this next one the whole country might very well collapse.

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2 hours ago, Mars477 said:

Wait a minute.

A terrorist attack levels the Capitol Building and kills everyone in the Continuity of Government chain down to SecHUD, and he is not immediately rushed aboard Air Force One and sequestered in flight for the next 24 hours?

We have the technology to do that, with in-flight refueling.  In the wake of such a massive strike, POTUS would be infinitely safer flying an unknown and classified course and escorted by USAF F-22s than in any land-based strongpoint.

It's safer in the bunker below the White House than in a plane that can be shot down by missiles.

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Hubby and I are going to make a drinking game for everything we think is being done wrong (we'll be drumk in 10 minutes).

no way they would take him back to White House. On 9/11 they were trying to get everyone out of DC and keep pres in air.  Cheney refused to leave and they had to land air force one because it was low on fuel. Not knowing who or why, potus is whisked away  

they would swear him in as soon as possible, wardrobe be damned.  I find it hard to believe though, they would wait an hour and a half for him to make a statement. With our whole govt. wiped out, the first order of business would be to show the world we were not in chaos and someone is in charge.

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11 hours ago, maraleia said:

It's safer in the bunker below the White House than in a plane that can be shot down by missiles.

Theory is anything that you can see you can hit. And anything that you can hit you can kill. Being aboard Air Force One not transmitting transponder codes to air traffic control is hard to see 

Edited by Raja
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6 hours ago, CloverTracey said:

Ok, done my best to keep current with conversation, but have not seen anyone comment on alleged "act of war" referred to in premier....really?  If congress is blown up, you cannot have a state of war declared, right?  Agree with previous commentators this show makes good drinking game and....I can watch another episode...

From the Pilot episode thread

 

The actual "state of war is irrelevant for a time. In the last declared war we were actively fighting Germans in the North Atlantic and the Japanese from Hawaii to China before the declaration was made. 

 

With congress gone it falls on the states. Now would a Governor send a winner take all delegation, all Democrats/Republicans like electors to the Electoral College and face a divided state at home but make himself/state the federal king maker or would he allow a split delegation to mirror the last elected congressional delegation. Would the next congress meet in a Washington DC conference room or use the legislature building in a state with a part time legislature.

When or  will President Kirkman try to place a Supreme Court, placing his stamp on America for decades or just allow the district courts to function awaiting an elected President?

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What would happen first is that the Senate would be reconstituted fairly quickly as the replacements are nominated by each states Governor. There would need to be a special election to seat the new members of the house and that would take a couple of months. With the Senate seated new members of  the Supreme Court could be confirmed.  And no, I doubt any attempt to replicate what was present before the attack.

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22 hours ago, Silver Raven said:

I vaguely remember back in the Cold War days, and with fears of nuclear strikes taking out everybody, there was some sort of line of succession that went way, way, down the list, including mayors of small towns nowhere near the Capital.  There was an article in the local newspaper in the small town in Northern California that I lived in, that said that the mayor of the town was in the list of successors.

I do think that if the Cabinet Secretary or Senate President or House Speaker is not a natural born citizen, he or she would not be eligible to be President, and so would probably not be chosen as the Designated Survivor.

You're exactly right. Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was born in the former Czechoslovakia/the Czech Republic & is a naturalized American. As such, she was excluded from the line of succession while running the State Department.

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On 9/23/2016 at 3:38 PM, orza said:

Well, it is an emergency. The country can't be without a president and swearing him in makes it official and gives him the power to make decisions and take action.

There's real-life precedent. Jackie Kennedy still wore her blood and brains covered pink suit to witness Lyndon Johnson being sworn in before their plane left Dallas, even though she probably had a change of clothes handy on the plane.

Jackie was asked about changing her clothes many times that day but refused because she wanted everyone to see JFK's blood splattered on her, to show the world what had been done to him.  She still had on the pink suit when Air Force One landed back in Washington later that night.  It was more about symbolism than lacking the opportunity/time to change.

As for Kirkman's swearing in attire, IRL, I feel like a Chief of Protocol or Social Secretary type would have scoped the White House for staffers close to his size and ordered the nearest one to volunteer his outfit so that the new POTUS would not look like a schlub for the swearing-in photos/video.

When the attack method on 9/11 was clearly by air, the Secret Service overruled George W. Bush about going straight back to Washington and had him flying to different locations in the country, escorted by fighter pilots.  He did return to the White House but during the night, there was a scare and the Bushes were hustled down to the bunker from their bedroom, before Mrs. Bush had time to get contacts/glasses.  During the assassination attempt on Reagan, before he realized he was shot, he thought the pain was from breaking a rib as Secret Service shoved him into his car. It didn't feel like the agents on DS acted with enough urgency/command in getting Kirkland out of harm's way, but it's true that the "A-list" and even B-list agents were probably all at the Capitol guarding POTUS, FLOTUS, VPOTUS, et al.

I didn't buy that they continued to let the staffers mill around the first floor of the White House after they knew the Capitol had been attacked. The VIPs would be sent to the command center and the rest made to evacuate.

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4 hours ago, maraleia said:

Obama's current Secretary of the Interior Sally Jewell was born in London and is also removed from the line of succession.

As was GWB' s Secretary of Labor, Elaine Chao who was born in Taiwan.

I'm sure there have been others over the years as well. Henry Kissinger, for one comes to mind.

Also on the off chance that a member of the cabinet were under 35 they would be excluded as well.

Edited by Cara
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On 9/23/2016 at 7:55 PM, Riplet68 said:

no way they would take him back to White House. On 9/11 they were trying to get everyone out of DC and keep pres in air.  Cheney refused to leave and they had to land air force one because it was low on fuel. Not knowing who or why, potus is whisked away  

My husband and I were also scratching our heads about why his wife (and then kids) were sent to residence when, for all anyone knew, the country was under attack.  Wouldn't they be sent to the bunker as well?

Also....sorry if this has been covered...but does the Congress have a similar "designated survivor" thing.  Like, is there one senator and one rep who can't attend the State of the Union?

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Also....sorry if this has been covered...but does the Congress have a similar "designated survivor" thing.  Like, is there one senator and one rep who can't attend the State of the Union?

There are almost always a few senators and representatives who have to miss the SOTU for various reasons, plus it's unusual for the entire Supreme Court to attend unless it's a super special occasion.   It's probable the absentees are either very old and/or loathed the policies of the now dead POTUS.  Since a lower level cabinet secretary would generally agree with POTUS's agenda that means the new senior members of congress will be ready to block and of Kirkman's potential policies.

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On September 23, 2016 at 7:19 PM, maraleia said:

It's safer in the bunker below the White House than in a plane that can be shot down by missiles.

This is... not necessarily true.

Conventional security thinking is that if you know where something is, with sufficient application of force you can kill it.  Fixed fortifications are extremely vulnerable to modern weapons.  To go to an extreme, the NORAD command bunker at Cheyenne Mountain is hardened against nuclear strike, but it is highly unlikely that it could have survived the dozens of Soviet nukes that targeted it in the event the balloon went up on nuclear war.

As posted before, there are many advantages to ushering a designated survivor POTUS onto Air Force One instead of a bunker.  First is the fact that portable SAMs (called MANPADS) simply don't have the range or the speed to hit an aircraft flying at high altitude.  You would need a vehicle based system, like the US PATRIOT or Russian Buk (which shot down MH17), as well as personnel trained in the operation of those systems. You would also need a military radar.  Good luck finding any of those.

Secondly, if you magically wished a SAM launcher into existence, you would need to be in a position where Air Forde One is in range, which is easier said than done considering that the pilots have the entirety of the airspace above the Continental United States to fly around in.

Thirdly, Air Force One has active countermeasures to defeat SAMs, as well as escort fighters willing to sacrifice their lives to protect the President.

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1 hour ago, Mars477 said:

This is... not necessarily true.

Conventional security thinking is that if you know where something is, with sufficient application of force you can kill it.  Fixed fortifications are extremely vulnerable to modern weapons.  To go to an extreme, the NORAD command bunker at Cheyenne Mountain is hardened against nuclear strike, but it is highly unlikely that it could have survived the dozens of Soviet nukes that targeted it in the event the balloon went up on nuclear war.

As posted before, there are many advantages to ushering a designated survivor POTUS onto Air Force One instead of a bunker.  First is the fact that portable SAMs (called MANPADS) simply don't have the range or the speed to hit an aircraft flying at high altitude.  You would need a vehicle based system, like the US PATRIOT or Russian Buk (which shot down MH17), as well as personnel trained in the operation of those systems. You would also need a military radar.  Good luck finding any of those.

Secondly, if you magically wished a SAM launcher into existence, you would need to be in a position where Air Forde One is in range, which is easier said than done considering that the pilots have the entirety of the airspace above the Continental United States to fly around in.

Thirdly, Air Force One has active countermeasures to defeat SAMs, as well as escort fighters willing to sacrifice their lives to protect the President.

And a couple of oceans commanded by the US Navy

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I'm throwing this in here as "Real World vs. Show World":

I'm not buying the real world reactions. Watching people panic and run out after the cooker bomb in Chelsea-NYC, I'd imagine people would have felt the explosion at the Capitol, seen the destruction, and then hightail it out of DC, by foot if need be, and clog the Beltway and interstates.

I was underwhelmed by the news reports on the bombing. Yeah, the president is dead, and most of the succession, but little on Congress and nothing on the Supreme Court.

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34 minutes ago, NutmegsDad said:

I'm throwing this in here as "Real World vs. Show World":

I'm not buying the real world reactions. Watching people panic and run out after the cooker bomb in Chelsea-NYC, I'd imagine people would have felt the explosion at the Capitol, seen the destruction, and then hightail it out of DC, by foot if need be, and clog the Beltway and interstates.

I was underwhelmed by the news reports on the bombing. Yeah, the president is dead, and most of the succession, but little on Congress and nothing on the Supreme Court.

I would give a pass on the snips of news reports. The others would be mentioned and left on the cutting room floor on a drama about the President. At least until the episodes when he has to deal with the next Congress and getting senatorial confirmations on nominees to the Supreme Court.

 

I agree President Kirkland obviously has Jack Bauer's knack for clearing traffic

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I do remember Haig holding a press conference saying he was in charge. He forgot about VP George Bush & the Speaker of the House being higher in the line of succession.

No, he was he highest ranking official physically in the White House at the time. He mentioned the Vice President at the PC.

 

On 9/21/2016 at 11:51 PM, selkie said:
On 9/21/2016 at 11:38 PM, Danielg342 said:

-Seeing the guy take pictures of Kirkman on his Blackberry telegraphed a bit too much that he's going to be some kind of bad dude. Seriously, establish the characters first before showing us the untrustworthy ones.

That actually worked for me. Regardless of how awful everything around is, there needs to be a record of the swearing in to share with media and historians when things calm down. It made me think of the photos of LBJ being sworn in on Air Force One after JFK's death. 

In 1901 (almost exactly a century before Sept. 11), Teddy Roosevelt threw out all the photographers from the room because they were fighting with each other.

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In the bathroom scene, Kal Penn's character said that Kirkman was fired, didn't deserve to the the president, etc.  Since, as far as we know, that was never made official by a signed document, it's irrelevant.  However, that made me think who could challenge Kirkman in the succession, particularly if there does end up being some sort of document, announcing his promotion to Ambassador of "IHOP".  It's unclear whether Kirkman has ever been elected to an office, so taking the Cabinet out of the mix (I'm assuming they were all at the SOTU), could the most senior surviving member of the House of Reps challenge him?  

That said, I don't think putting together a new Congress quickly would be that hard.  A Governor could sent two members of the executive branch to serve as Senators and fill the House seats with State Senate members.  Since everyone can vote for people in their state's executive branch, just as they can for US Sentators, so that's the best apples to apples, "will of the people" scenario; and the same could apply for filling the US House with State Senate members.  Taking care of the Supreme Court would be much more difficult, but I don't know if that would be an immediate and pressing issue.

The swearing in got me wondering if there's a "designated survivor" in the event that all the Justices attend the SOTU, which I had never thought about before.

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The Supreme Court would probably have to wait just as a split Congress refusing to allow President Obama to nominate a replacement for Justice Scalia before the election  with Governor seats  going in the opposite direction of the Electoral College members a President Kirkman would probably find his opportunity to place the Kirkman Court thwarted by an appointed Senate 

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One other issue that might come up is the following.  Technically Kirkman is only the acting president because everyone above him in the line of succession is dead.  When the Senate and House manage to refill their ranks there will be a new speaker and president pro tempore.  If you look at the text of the succession act it says that someone in Kirkman's position ( a former cabinet secretary) would be acting president until the end of the term OR until the speaker and president pro tempore are able to fill the role.  So does that mean the minute the speaker or president pro tempore is sworn in they could hand in their resignation from congress and take the presidential oath?

The alternative explanation is that any acting president under these circumstances (i.e. a dead POTUS and VP) cannot be removed from office until the end of their term.  Sounds like a job for the Supreme Court  too bad a lot of them are dead.

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17 hours ago, cambridgeguy said:

If you look at the text of the succession act it says that someone in Kirkman's position ( a former cabinet secretary) would be acting president until the end of the term OR until the speaker and president pro tempore are able to fill the role.

This is probably going to be addressed sometime during the series.

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On 9/23/2016 at 3:27 PM, thewhiteowl said:

The DS is one of those odd things that are necessary but you pray you never have to use. Like fire extinguishers and CM detectors. It seems kind of odd that it was so casual. You want to make sure your emergency back-up would work, if you needed it. Wouldn't a POTUS or their staff make sure that the most important back-up plan in the US had a vague clue as to what might be expected of him? Sure, it's easy to ignore and pretend that the DS is a waste of time but wouldn't you want to have some prep, if you were chosen? I would. Wouldn't you, if you were POTUS, pick someone who may be capable if needed? I would. Just a few thoughts. 

It's been a while since I saw the episode but I swear on the episode of the West Wing where they actually showed the Cabinet Member that was chosen as DS, and the staff joked about the choice, with someone, Donna I think, actually asking why he was chosen and expressing concern that he could end up president

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9 hours ago, chitowngirl said:

Do members of the Supreme Court usually attend the State of the Union?

Yes.  I've seen various SOTU addresses and have seen the Supreme Court justices sitting in their own row.  However they have the option not to attend them.   Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito and Antonin Scalia chose to skip the last SOTU in January.

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11 hours ago, twinkietwin94 said:

The DS is one of those odd things that are necessary but you pray you never have to use. Like fire extinguishers and CM detectors. It seems kind of odd that it was so casual. You want to make sure your emergency back-up would work, if you needed it. Wouldn't a POTUS or their staff make sure that the most important back-up plan in the US had a vague clue as to what might be expected of him? Sure, it's easy to ignore and pretend that the DS is a waste of time but wouldn't you want to have some prep, if you were chosen? I would. Wouldn't you, if you were POTUS, pick someone who may be capable if needed? I would. Just a few thoughts. 

that is my one nitpick on the show.   Why would the DS be someone that was on the outs with the president?   You would make darn sure that if you needed to use the Continuity of Government plan that it would be someone that there would be no question is in the line of succession.   You do not want the question of "Did the president fire him that morning or not" hanging around.   You pick someone who is solidly in place.  

And did the President really fire him?   He was asked to step down.  But he hadn't given his answer yet.   Usually there is a transition period where the person is doing the job until the new person is approved by Congress.   It's not, "oh yeah, you serve at the pleasure of the President, go clean out your desk" for mere Cabinet shuffling.   

There would be no question that a still serving Cabinet Secretary in the Line of Sucession is the rightful president.   But they need drama for the show -- because how to rebuild the government is not drama enough apparently.

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On 9/27/2016 at 8:12 PM, cambridgeguy said:

One other issue that might come up is the following.  Technically Kirkman is only the acting president because everyone above him in the line of succession is dead.  When the Senate and House manage to refill their ranks there will be a new speaker and president pro tempore.  If you look at the text of the succession act it says that someone in Kirkman's position ( a former cabinet secretary) would be acting president until the end of the term OR until the speaker and president pro tempore are able to fill the role.  So does that mean the minute the speaker or president pro tempore is sworn in they could hand in their resignation from congress and take the presidential oath?

The alternative explanation is that any acting president under these circumstances (i.e. a dead POTUS and VP) cannot be removed from office until the end of their term.  Sounds like a job for the Supreme Court  too bad a lot of them are dead.

My read of the statute is that the DS becomes "acting" president, and is only replaced before the end of the term if somebody higher up in the succession order is alive at the time (of the attack in this case) and was unable to become acting president due to injury or other circumstance, and later is able to assume the duties of president.

Once all the vacant positions are officially filled (senators appointed, house elected, VP and cabinet members affirmed by the senate) then the succession order goes back to "normal".

Regarding people other than the VP who were next in line, after the death of Zachary Taylor, Millard Fillmore became president, and because the President Pro Tempore of the Senate (then next in line) was vacant, the next in line was Speaker Howell Cobb, who was not yet 35.  The question remains if Fillmore had died in those two days before a PPT was selected, would somebody else become president immediately and then Cobb have become president after he turned 35 and then was able to fill the role.  (Different Succession Acts, though.)  

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3 hours ago, retired watcher said:

If you have ever watched the State of the Union address they are ALL there. It's protocol that everyone appears. The justices even wear their robes. 

As the State of the Union has evolved from a report into a TV show to support the administration things have changed. At the last event three justices, two still living passed on the occasion. The justices are showing their political bias as much as congress where half jumps up and cheers for their side during the address. We even had a Supreme Court justice come out for her Presidential candidate as they are becoming publicly as biased as your average  FOX and MSNBC reporter.

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On 9/29/2016 at 6:30 AM, merylinkid said:

that is my one nitpick on the show.   Why would the DS be someone that was on the outs with the president?   You would make darn sure that if you needed to use the Continuity of Government plan that it would be someone that there would be no question is in the line of succession.   You do not want the question of "Did the president fire him that morning or not" hanging around.   You pick someone who is solidly in place.  

 

I was thinking about this while watching ep2--not in terms of the President being on the outs with DS, but rather that if something catastrophic were to happen, is the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development really the best person to step in?  Why not the Secretary of State, or Defense, or Homeland Security.  Then I read that the most recent DS was the Secretary of Homeland Security and it changes every year.  My guess is that there is a rotation or names are drawn from a hat or something.

I also thought it interesting that Kirkman, who is portrayed as being unassuming and, frankly, not very charismatic holds a seat that, in real life, is held by one of, if not the, most charismatic member of the cabinet, Julian Castro.  I don't think there is any deep meaning to that, I just found it somewhat amusing.

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From the s1ep1 thread:

Quote

 

It rotates from year to year so it's never the same person twice.  And the designated survivor only takes over if everyone ahead of them in the line of succession were to die.  In 2014, the HUD Secretary was the designated survivor.  Here's a link to a 2014 article that gives a good explanation of the process (and I apologize if someone has already done this - I didn't have time to read through 6 pages of comments to make sure no one had already answered this).

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/01/designated-survivor-state-of-the-union-2014-102658

 

 

So, according to this article (and if the world of the show acts in accordance with the real world), there should be one other member of Congress who was not at the SOTU.  Wasn't Kimball from the House?  If so, there should be a Senator hiding out somewhere.

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1 hour ago, OtterMommy said:

I was thinking about this while watching ep2--not in terms of the President being on the outs with DS, but rather that if something catastrophic were to happen, is the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development really the best person to step in?  Why not the Secretary of State, or Defense, or Homeland Security.

As Josh explained after picking the Secretary of Agriculture in TWW episode where this came up, "Because the secretaries of defense, state and treasury are famous faces, and we want the camera to find them."

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18 minutes ago, retired watcher said:

Cabinet members technically can't be fired. They can be asked to resign and Kirkman didn't have time to turn one in. 

Technically the President can with approval of the Senate. The Tenure of Office act of 1867 passed to Protect the Republican President Lincoln legacy from his Democratic Vice President Johnson. In the world of the show since the resignation had not yet happened and the Senate didn't know we have President Kirkman.

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The Tenure of Office Act was repealed in 1887.  In 1926, the Supreme Court decision in Myers v. United States upheld the president's ability to remove executive office officials without approval. And although cabinet members and some other executive branch officials require the approval of the Senate, they still serve at the pleasure of the president. 

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1 hour ago, marinw said:

 

I also find it sad the HUD is so low on the Washington totem poll, and is not considered an very important role.  Anyone who has ever struggled with paying the rent or the mortgage would beg to differ.

The line of succession follows the order that a department was added to the cabinet. so one of the politically hottest departments in the show situation of an successful terrorist attack, the Homeland Security Secretary is last at number 18. After the elected officers, Vice President, Speaker of the House and President of the Senate you have the  departments created when the union came together 

4. Secretary of State, foreign affairs in most nation's systems.

5. Secretary of Treasury

6. Secretary of Defense, which started out as Secretary of War

7. Attorney General

8- 17 and then all those cabinet positions that libertarians don't even think should be a federal government responsibility

Edited by Raja
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Raja

I bet the House of Cards remake would have made more sense in Canada given how politicians rise in the different systems. But then it would have been nearly the exact show with different accents

 

Interestingly, Raja, the Deputy Prime Minister (our equivalent of the American VEEP) in Canada is an honorary post that is barely a real thing, Stephan Harper didn't even have a Deputy PM. Neither does our current PM Justin Trudeau.

Edited by marinw
Grammer
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