S04.E02: The Lion And The Rose

[Ariadne]

Thanks for all your nice posts guys!

It's an enormous risk for Olenna to assume, though, simply to eliminate Queen Perimenopause.  I doubt Olenna takes Cersei at her own estimation, or sees her as more dangerous to Olenna's grandchildren than Joffrey.  Knowing Joffrey, would Olenna risk further inflaming his menace by murdering his mother at his wedding? And even if Olenna were determined to have Cersei killed, why murder Cersei in King's Landing, surrounded by the Lannisters in all the trappings of their power?  Why not wait until Cersei were removed to Highgarden, where any manner of accident might be arranged for her? In either event that would still leave Margaery -- and the kingdom as a whole -- ruled by the vicious whims of King Joffrey: as spectacularly unfit a husband as he is a king.  

How do the benefits outweigh the risks?  To me, murdering a troublesome female-in-law seems the kind of rash move that Cersei, not Olenna, might consider -- and even so, decide against.  

Then there's Olenna's little joke.  She commiserates with Sansa on the death of her brother, does not mention her mother, then sighs, "Killing a man at a wedding..."  If Cersei had been Olenna's target, I think both Olenna and her writer would have shaped the jest to fit the crime. 

Hi, Pallas. It's an enormous risk either way. And I think you underestimate the threat Cersei poses to both Margaery and Loras. The threat to Loras is immediate - she is not going to marry him. Waiting till she gets to Highgarden will be too late, Loras could very well be dead by then, there's no way Cersei could bear being shipped away from King's Landing - when would she see her kids again or Jaime?

And if Tywin had been killed as well? Just like that, the Tyrell's would have been the power behind the throne, just as the Lannister's were during Robert's reign. It's worth the risk and Olenna must hope that Margaery can control Joffrey long enough to get a son.

But my major problem with the theory that Olenna wanted to poison Joffrey is that she had no opportunity. When did she poison Joffrey's wine? I'm quite happy to be proven wrong if someone can show me how she does it. I've carefully watched again and again and the poisoned wine had to have come from the decanter in front of Cersei. How could Olenna possibly have known that Joffrey would drink from it before anyone else did? If you can show me how she does it, please do.

[MickleThePickle]

Yeah, Olenna didn't have direct access to the cup or the wine. If the gem was the poison then she would have had to pass it to Margery at some point (if the target was Joff) which we didn't see happen. The only people who made direct contact with Margery during the feast were Brienne, Cercei and Joffrey, if I remember correctly. So many clues but many more questions. Fun fun.

Whoever dunnit, they sure wanted it to be a spectacle, didn't they? The royal wedding doesn't seem like the greatest place to carry out a murder unless they wanted to make a show of it. Seems like he could be much easier dispatched amidst his daily goings-on.

Overall, I loved how they painted so many people as a suspect. Oberon coming to town with revenge on his mind but with no obvious link to the murder. I was also intrigued by the many shots of Varys, looking very solemn and uncomfortable in every scene. Like he may have known what was going to happen. In fact, the first we see of the wedding, it is a slow pan up to Varys in the crowd. Wonder if it means anything.

Edited April 19, 2014 by MickleThePickle

[abelard]

This just occurred to me (sorry if others have already specc'd this): 

What if Dontos the Fool simply *overheard* the murderer (whoever it was) plotting before the wedding, and *that's* why he was so quick to get to Sansa's side when Joffrey started to turn (wonderfully) purple?  He could have just known that the King's death would have signified trouble for all of KL, and Sansa would be safer elsewhere, OR he could have thought that Sansa has been wanting to leave KL for a long time (does anyone who knows Sansa *not* know this about her?) and he just knew that an opportunity was coming up, and decided that he would help her take advantage of it?  I am thinking that Dontos could have known about the murder coming, but not been in cahoots with the killer(s), per se. 

[Pallas]

Hi Ariadne!  Your theory is great. I love how your detective work begins from the evidence before our eyes, and how your kept both your eyes and your mind open to all possibilities. But however Joffrey was poisoned, it doesn't seem that the Lannister carafe wine was tainted.  Just before he cuts the pie, Joffrey drinks from what Tyrion poured him from the Lannister carafe: no ill effects.  Nor were Tywin, Cersei or Tommen any worse for wear.  Only after Joffrey cuts the pie, begins to eat his own slice of real pie and drinks again from the goblet does he choke.

If Olenna is the killer, I think Cersei would be no better than fourth in her list of possible targets: after Joffrey, Tywin and Tyrion.  She has observed and spent time with each, and negotiated mano-a-mano with Tywin and Tyrion.  My sense is that, rightly or wrongly, Olenna wouldn't...give the time of day to Cersei as a threat.

And I may be projecting. I find that I'm coming around to the impression that Cersei is a little more circumspect than she likes to let on: a little less bloody-minded, perhaps, and/or and a little more cowardly.  The executiion of Ned: not Cersei but Joffrey. The hit on Tyrion, the slaughter of the innocents: seemingly not Cersei, but Joffrey. The first attempted murder of Bran: not Cersei but Jaime. The second attempted murder of Bran: not Cersei, I think. The murder of Jon Arryn: I don't know.  The only killing we can absolutely lay at her door is Robert's, with an assist to the boar.  Cersei strikes me as the kind of histrionic, mean-spirited depressive who would rather bitch and snarl than change things. Who would rather act out, than act.  

But back to Joffrey's death, because: Joffrey's death!  

The threat to Loras is immediate - she is not going to marry him.

I agree.  But I think Cersei would chew off her own paw before murdering Loras. Cersei wants out of the marriage market altogether: wants to remain in Kings Landing, wants to be respected and heard by Tywin. or to punish him if she is not.  Does Olenna believe this too?  I don't know.  She may know Cersei as no more than a sadly beautiful unpleasant drunk deeply jealous of a younger woman who surpasses her in far more ways than that.  There have always been plenty of those at court and elsewhere: people might wish someone would poison them, but the actual poisoners rarely seem to bother.  

The Mad/Bad Kings, though: they draw a crowd.  Olenna does know what Joffrey is.  And Joffrey could make Margaery's life a living hell, or end it. Joffrey could execute Loras on any charge that strikes his fancy or just have him killed: he has done both.  No one in the Seven Kingdoms is safe with Joffrey as king, beginning first of all with his wife and her brother, former lover and supporter of a usurper.

But if Joffrey was the target of Olenna or someone else, how was it done?  (1) In the kitchen: the weapon was the actual pie, Joffrey's ceremonial slice doctored by ....?   Perhaps Olenna, honorary mother of the bride, checking on the preparations; perhaps someone else.  Olenna and Margarety were not part of the wedding breakfast, though Mace was. Olenna might have spent all of that time attending Margaery, or only some of it.  (2) At the dais: Joffrey's goblet, poured from the Lannister carafe, placed near Olenna by Margaery when Joffrey went to "cut the pie" and doctored by Olenna while he did so.

But I think shimpy is right and that the pie was the culprit and the wine is either an innocent or very dirty false lead.  Perhaps with the necklace jewel as a plant that played no actual part in the killing.  

[WhiteStumbler]

Pallas:

You wrote "But I think Cersei would chew off her own paw before murdering Loras. Cersei wants out of the marriage market altogether". Was it supposed to be "marrying Loras"? Actually either works, just seeking clarity. Thx

[Pallas]

Oops!  Lieutenant Stumbler.  

"Just one more thing, Mrs. Pallas, then I'll get out of your hair...It struck me, when you said 'Murder Loras...'  Now what you meant -- you meant, 'marry' Loras, didn't you, Mrs. Pallas?  Just a slip of the tongue -- I know; I do all that all the time -- and my wife!, she says -- well.  I know you've got a lot on your mind...I'm really sorry for your loss." 

I did mean murder him: Cersei would rather do herself harm in some way, than murder Loras.  I probably should have said "is more likely to" -- asked to express a preference, she'd say 'murder' every time.  But I'm thinking that whatever she is cooking up with the false Maester  -- a former Bolton family priest/physician, after all (shudder) -- it's some sort of internal flaying of her own womanliness.  Lady Macbeth: "Unsex me here..."  Because as long as Cersei is perceived to be fecund, Tywin can bind her to some other chump. And as Constantinople said above, I think Cersei wants out of the Westerosi woman business altogether.

[WhiteStumbler]

Thanks for the clarification, and I think I agree that Cersei would do anything to get off of her fathers marriage-go-round, and killing Loras won't accomplish that. Perceptive post, thanks.

Edited April 20, 2014 by WhiteStumbler

[stillshimpy]

I agree that Cersei's plan runs more to "Shoot the hostage!" and that she just happens to be the hostage in this instance.