Josh & Anna Smuggar: A Series of Unfortunate Events

[mittsigirl]

1 hour ago, hathorlive said:

From his website:

"Won acquittal of all of the most serious counts—those carrying mandatory minimums of decades in prison and maximums of life—in a federal sex trafficking jury trial in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri; in a pleading, the federal prosecutor claimed her star witness “was mercilessly questioned by defense counsel [Justin Gelfand].”

"Won complete acquittal in a Missouri sex crimes jury trial."

 

"Persuaded Missouri prosecutors not to prosecute a juvenile accused of a sex crime."

"Persuaded Missouri prosecutors not to prosecute a man accused of a sex crime against a child."

"Persuaded Missouri prosecutors not to prosecute a man accused of a sex crime against a child."

 

This guy was on speed dial and retainer for a reason.  The Duggars knew what was going down.

Wow, he is really proud of his history, isn't he? He is why I can't stand most defense attorneys. Especially the ones who defend perverts and get them off scott free.

[Jeeves]

17 hours ago, WinnieWinkle said:

I wonder though if a really good lawyer would consider it part of his job to actually try and make Duggar (jr and sr) see that, as others have noted,  the Feds don't play around.

And the answer to that is: yes. The lawyer's job when representing a defendant in a criminal case, is to discover and analyze the evidence against her client, determine the strength of (and locate holes in) the prosecution's case - and advise her client based on her best analysis. That could be "we're up a creek without a paddle here; the evidence is strong, the witnesses look solid, and you have two prior felony convictions, so your best option is a good plea bargain." Or it could be, "I believe there are enough weak spots in the prosecution's evidence that we should take this to trial." 

Of course, the client doesn't have to take the advice. I began my career long long ago as a public defender in state (not federal) court. I still remember a shooting case where we got a pretty good plea offer from the DA, but my client wouldn't take it. We went to trial and he was acquitted. Of course, it helped that the victim turned in a performance on the witness stand that I fondly recall as Pure Obnoxious A**hole, With Extra Stunts on the Side. Heh. I think the jury decided that guy probably needed shooting and it was too bad he survived. [ETA: it was a minor injury. I do not make light of gun violence in general, but this really was a crazy case.]

Edited May 3, 2021 by Jeeves
Details

[WinnieWinkle]

9 minutes ago, BitterApple said:

If Josh goes to trial, am I correct in assuming his defense will be someone other than him downloaded the images? Maybe the brothers had access to the computer, but is Josh that shitty of a person that he'd implicate them to save his own ass?

I think he may ultimately reach a point where he's scared enough that he'd be prepared to sell out his own mother let alone one of his brothers but I doubt that Josh will ever be the one making any of the decisions - even where his own defense is concerned.  I think, at the end of the day, Daddy Dearest will be the one calling the shots.  So what it may come down to is how prepared is JB to protect the crown prince?  And to what lengths will he go to do it.

Edited May 2, 2021 by WinnieWinkle

[Zella]

10 minutes ago, BitterApple said:

is Josh that shitty of a person that he'd implicate them to save his own ass?

Yes. I don't think he cares about anyone but himself or has loyalty to anyone but himself. 

Edited May 2, 2021 by Zella

[Churchhoney]

29 minutes ago, Arkay said:

This is Gothard stuff?????  Didn’t Jesus say that anyone who offends children, it would be better for them to have a millstone around their neck and be drowned, rather than harm a child? 

 

29 minutes ago, Arkay said:

This is Gothard stuff?????  Didn’t Jesus say that anyone who offends children, it would be better for them to have a millstone around their neck and be drowned, rather than harm a child? 

Gothard's not the only guy who ever created a god in his own image. But he is definitely a big name in that field, I would say. 

Since he seems to have spent much of his adult life scanning the horizon for vulnerable teenage girls and then pulling them into his web of repulsive footise -- which was A-OK because it wasn't sex -- he seems to have been eager to make clear to everyone that the true Christian god firmly believes that all victims of crimes of any sort are just as guilty as perpetrators. ....

Sometimes the victims are even worse -- if they allow themselves to become bitter about the event and withhold forgiveness, doncha know? 

[3girlsforus]

1 hour ago, GeeGolly said:

I still don't think so.

The Story lawyer may know the other lawyer from previous cases.

The weddings didn't appear to be rushed to me. Justin met Claire two years ago and Jed dated Katey for a year.

There was also a pandemic happening for the last year.

The lack of EJ pics is due to, IMO, the chapter in the book about how hard it was growing up in the public eye.

I don't think they knew. They're Duggars, they think they're like Teflon.

I can see both sides of the ‘did they know’ argument but what I do think for sure is that if they knew the ‘they’ was only JB and Josh and maybe Michelle. I don’t think they shared with the rest of the family, including Anna, even though it would significantly affect them.  

[Canadian Girl]

1 hour ago, Lady Whistleup said:

The rushed weddings rang alarm bells for me. TLC lives for wedding specials. But it's as if the Duggars were determined to marry their sons off ASAP.

Who are the recent weddings?

[Zella]

Just now, Canadian Girl said:

Who are the recent weddings?

Jed! and Justin were both married earlier this year. 

[Future Cat Lady]

1 hour ago, hathorlive said:

From his website:

"Won acquittal of all of the most serious counts—those carrying mandatory minimums of decades in prison and maximums of life—in a federal sex trafficking jury trial in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri; in a pleading, the federal prosecutor claimed her star witness “was mercilessly questioned by defense counsel [Justin Gelfand].”

"Won complete acquittal in a Missouri sex crimes jury trial."

 

"Persuaded Missouri prosecutors not to prosecute a juvenile accused of a sex crime."

"Persuaded Missouri prosecutors not to prosecute a man accused of a sex crime against a child."

"Persuaded Missouri prosecutors not to prosecute a man accused of a sex crime against a child."

 

This guy was on speed dial and retainer for a reason.  The Duggars knew what was going down.

I know criminals have a right to a defense, but this is gross.

[Cinnabon]

3 hours ago, Giant Misfit said:

I was reading this TMZ article about the November 2019 raid on Smuggar's office and, Christ, this statement from Jim Blob a Duggar "family spokesperson": 

I guess the Duggars have a very loose interpretation of "Thou Shalt Not Bear False Witness Against Thy Neighbor."  

"The tablet said 'neighbor,' not "SON!" -- Jim Bob, probably

Also, weren't there rumors at the time the feds raided the TTH? I am probably misremembering.

That reminds me, didn’t JB once say that he thought child porn (or similar) should be punished with the death penalty? 

[Tabbygirl521]

The fellow mentioned upthread, who knew Josh growing up and has just done a very lengthy a AMA on Reddit (he was verified as being legit) says that Josh has been extremely tech-savvy since he was a teen, with particular knowledge around anonymity etc.

The AMA is fascinating. This ex-friend confirms a lot of things I’d heard previously but also offers insight on Gothardized upbringing, etc. And he’s not there to eviscerateJosh; he seems to be a kind but clear-eyed soul. 

[Lady Whistleup]

8 minutes ago, Canadian Girl said:

Who are the recent weddings?

Justin and Claire and Jed and Katey.

[Zella]

5 minutes ago, Cinnabon said:

That reminds me, didn’t JB once say that he thought child porn (or similar) should be punished with the death penalty? 

When he was running for office back in the early 2000s, he said that both rape and incest should be punished with the death penalty. 

I'd just like to point out this coincided with the same period in which Josh was molesting his sisters and Jim Bob's response was to lock the girls' room. :( 

Edited May 2, 2021 by Zella

[Quilt Fairy]

If Josh is convicted on these charges, regardless of the amount of time (if any) that he would have to serve in prison, he would also be required to register as a convicted sex offender, correct?  Does anyone know what kind of restrictions would be placed on him?   Would he even be able to live with his own family?  

[libgirl2]

50 minutes ago, Arkay said:

This is Gothard stuff?????  Didn’t Jesus say that anyone who offends children, it would be better for them to have a millstone around their neck and be drowned, rather than harm a child? 

He did but apparently they don't.  

[Future Cat Lady]

49 minutes ago, Arkay said:

This is Gothard stuff?????  Didn’t Jesus say that anyone who offends children, it would be better for them to have a millstone around their neck and be drowned, rather than harm a child? 

Gothard is himself an abuser. He made up all that stuff to facilitate his abuse. The guy knew what he was doing.

[ginger90]

13 minutes ago, Cinnabon said:

That reminds me, didn’t JB once say that he thought child porn (or similar) should be punished with the death penalty? 

He said that about rape and incest.

 

ETA: what Zella said.

Edited May 2, 2021 by ginger90

[Future Cat Lady]

15 minutes ago, Zella said:

When he was running for office back in the early 2000s, he said that both rape and incest should be punished with the death penalty. 

I'd just like to point out this coincided with the same period in which Josh was molesting his sisters and Jim Bob's response was to lock the girls' room. :( 

Well I'm sure he meant the death penalty for the liberal abusers, the ones who follow the right Jesus are forgiven.

They are such hypocrites.

Edited May 2, 2021 by Future Cat Lady

[Zella]

1 minute ago, Future Cat Lady said:

Well I'm sure he meant the death penalty for the liberal abiusers, the one who follow the right Jesus are forgiven.

They are such hypocrites.

Or basically for anyone he's not related to. 

[Future Cat Lady]

5 minutes ago, Future Cat Lady said:

Oups, nm.

 

Edited May 2, 2021 by Future Cat Lady

[hathorlive]

25 minutes ago, 3girlsforus said:

I can see both sides of the ‘did they know’ argument but what I do think for sure is that if they knew the ‘they’ was only JB and Josh and maybe Michelle. I don’t think they shared with the rest of the family, including Anna, even though it would significantly affect them.  

I agree with this.  I think Josh and his parents knew precisely what was going down. I think the older kids were told it was some witch hunt, blha blah blah.  But there is no way Josh and the parents didn't know.

[Oldernowiser]

1 hour ago, JoanArc said:

It’s got to be at least six figures for the defense. That makes me smile.

I just keep thinking about how Josh might want to stay in jail because it’s safer than what 18 siblings and their spouses might have in mind for him. They have every right to DESPISE him. He’s always been their parents’ blatant favorite and in return he’s done nothing except bring scandal on the family, molest his sisters, risk killing off the TLC money, try to cheat on his wife on public website, and now he’s going to eat up a huge chunk of the family money for his defense for what is a really repugnant alleged criminal activity. 

Not to mention that he’s been semi-banned from the show for years, yet you know that he and his family have been getting more than their fair share of the proceeds from JB. It’s not like Josh could or would work hard enough to support a wife and 6.5 kids on his own. 

I can see them all fantasizing about a Murder on the Orient Express scenario and honestly, I wouldn’t blame them.

[Churchhoney]

27 minutes ago, Cinnabon said:

That reminds me, didn’t JB once say that he thought child porn (or similar) should be punished with the death penalty? 

I think I remember that he said that about incest. Can't remember what else he mentioned, though. .... In the Internet Archive, he's still saying it somewhere. 

27 minutes ago, Tabbygirl521 said:

The fellow mentioned upthread, who knew Josh growing up and has just done a very lengthy a AMA on Reddit (he was verified as being legit) says that Josh has been extremely tech-savvy since he was a teen, with particular knowledge around anonymity etc.

The AMA is fascinating. This ex-friend confirms a lot of things I’d heard previously but also offers insight on Gothardized upbringing, etc. And he’s not there to eviscerateJosh; he seems to be a kind but clear-eyed soul. 

Too bad he didn't use his tech savvy to get a job and help support the massive family. 

[hathorlive]

49 minutes ago, BitterApple said:

If Josh goes to trial, am I correct in assuming his defense will be someone other than him downloaded the images? Maybe the brothers had access to the computer, but is Josh that shitty of a person that he'd implicate them to save his own ass?

Josh doesn't have to prove WHO did it, just that someone else had access to the computer, so there is reasonable doubt.  He can say that customers were allowed to use the computer to check their credit scores or check out the blue book value for the junk on his lot.  None of it has to be true, it can be thrown out there to give the jury reasonable doubt.

[mittsigirl]

Don't be surprised if the Duggars don't run out of money after paying dearly for the defense lawyer. Many, many fundies and other religions, believe that the dollar is going to be useless in the not too distant future, and have been buying gold and silver for many years now. Gold has doubled in the last decade, and silver is supposed to be getting a lot higher than it is right now. There will be what they call a 'cashless' society, and we will have to buy supplies using precious metals instead. I can see JB doing this when TLC began writing them bog checks. My husband has bought silver years ago, and some gold, so I used to check their values every week, but since covid hit, I just try to keep busy with my dogs so don't look them up much anymore. My hunch is that JB has invested in precious metals and will do just fine.

[JoanArc]

6 minutes ago, Oldernowiser said:

I can see them all fantasizing about a Murder on the Orient Express scenario and honestly, I wouldn’t blame them.

 This made me chuckle more than it should have. Honestly though, I would see him more as a flight risk. He’s bound to have a suitcase full of money buried in some Arkansas field. If you could be released on bail, and figure out someway to slip past his captors, there’s no reason for him not to vanish. 

[WinnieWinkle]

9 minutes ago, JoanArc said:

If you could be released on bail, and figure out someway to slip past his captors, there’s no reason for him not to vanish. 

I doubt this would be possible but I am sure if he could elude the authorities there are a lot of Duggar supporters out there who would consider it their god given duty to help him keep safely hidden away.  If there are Duggar supporters on this board they are staying out of the discussions but if you go to other places it's appalling really how willing some are to accept any transgression from a Duggar.  It's not even like they are saying he's innocent.  They are saying it doesn't matter.  Sigh.

40 minutes ago, Tabbygirl521 said:

The fellow mentioned upthread, who knew Josh growing up and has just done a very lengthy a AMA on Reddit (he was verified as being legit) says that Josh has been extremely tech-savvy since he was a teen, with particular knowledge around anonymity etc.

If this is true then that does mean that Josh has been aware for about 2 years now that this was potentially coming.  This makes me wonder if he's spent this time worried sick or if he genuinely does think he's bullet proof.

Edited May 2, 2021 by WinnieWinkle

[Heathen]

2 hours ago, WinnieWinkle said:

How does someone live with themselves when their specialty is getting sex abuse perps acquited?  

Everybody deserves legal representation and due process, no matter how heinous the crime. That's the way our legal system works. 

[Zella]

17 minutes ago, Churchhoney said:

I think I remember that he said that about incest. Can't remember what else he mentioned, though. .... In the Internet Archive, he's still saying it somewhere. 

Too bad he didn't use his tech savvy to get a job and help support the massive family. 

I'm on my phone so not going to try, but I am pretty sure Jim Bob's campaign website from 02 is archived on wayback machine, and the quote is there. 

[Cinnabon]

[mittsigirl]

4 minutes ago, Cinnabon said:

I know I shouldn't laugh at something so serious, but gee, I really needed this! 

[doodlebug]

1 hour ago, Zella said:

My knowledge is solely from reading way too much true crime, but I've read of enough cases where the lawyer had a come-to-Jesus-talk with their client about what a world of shit they are in that I do think they probably at least have a professional obligation to point it out. I'd definitely defer to what any of our actual lawyers say, though! 

I'm not a lawyer, but I've been a defendant, more than once, in civil cases.  It comes with the territory if you practice obstetrics in the US.  In all cases, I felt I had excellent legal representation and my lawyers were down to earth and very honest about what they saw as problems in the defense as well as in the plaintiff's case.  

As each case, approached trial, we all sat down and the legal team laid out the facts, the problems, the options.  Obviously, I wasn't going to jail, but it involved settlement offers to the plaintiffs if I approved.  I had insurance and, as long as no case settled or was judged for more than $1million, it was not coming out of my pocket.  That's one of the risks that a defendant in a civil case faces; if the judgement exceeds their coverage, they are on the hook for the rest.

Anyway, in all cases, I was advised as to what the lawyer thought might happen at trial and it was my option to settle or not.  One case, where I was a co-defendant, could've probably gone to court or settled for less; but one of my colleagues blatantly falsified the medical chart and her notes completely contradicted notes from another doctor and 2 nurses who were present at the time.  Juries don't like that kind of stuff, we settled. 

I've gone to trial twice, in the first case, the plaintiff's sister was her attorney and she wasn't even a litigator, let alone a malpractice expert.  Even before trial, my attorney advised me that the case was baloney and he recommended not settling because there was clearly no malpractice. That was my take on it too and the jury was out less than 10 minutes before they acquitted unanimously.  The other trial was a lot more complicated, the child who I'd delivered didn't file suit until he was 19 and he was 22 when it went to court.  Trying to remember details of a delivery that I did two decades earlier wasn't easy.  In any event, it was really our experts vs their experts.  Our experts won the day and that was also a win for the defense.

I really do think Josh was convinced that he was internet savvy enough that the feds weren't going to be able to trace his online activity and I can see him smugly insisting on going to trial.  He really does think he is all that.  Since every dime of his defense is coming from JB's pocket, I can see JB and Travis Story ultimately conferring with the defense lawyer and forcing Josh to plead out if the case is as strong as it probably is.  But, if it was solely up to Josh, I think he'd want to go the whole 9 yards.

I also think that JB knew about the charges, if nothing else, Travis Story would've gotten a copy of the original search warrant as well as the charges filed this week. Josh' attorney-client privilege with Travis probably begins and ends with JB knowing everything.  He might've shared the info with Michelle, but, just like the money, JB gets to decide who gets what and I don't think the other kids were told what the feds were looking for or what Josh might've done.  As far as JB is concerned, they are not in charge, he is.

Edited May 2, 2021 by doodlebug

[Gigi43]

Is it possible the site Josh used to dl the CP got busted and that's what triggered them onto Josh? It's been almost two years to the day that the Feds arrested him from when they took his computer and supposedly the dates of the CP was May14-16 (if that's true.) So for two years they could have tracked the source of where it came from, hopefully, and there's some kind of smoking gun with Josh's name on it. I just have to think after all this time, they wouldn't make the arrest if an easy 'it was someone on my computer' defense would work. 

 

I have no doubt Josh would sell out everyone in the family to save his own ass, but, it's not in JB's best interest to let Josh play reasonable doubt if it would cast blame on one of the brothers. An employee, JB would let fry. Did the car lot ever actually have customers to blame? But if JB is as calculating as I think he is, even if Josh is the golden child, one problem son is bad enough. Everyone knows Josh is scum and they skirted back on to TLC. Letting their be two problem sons, especially if it's a son whose had TLC wedding/baby specials would really ruin them. It's actually in the best interest of the business of being the Duggars to let Josh go down as the problem child and the other 18 are pure. Unless Josh has some blackmail shit (which is possible) that would get JB in a load of shit, I'm thinking namely with the IRS, and so JB and M will let him do what wants as a defense. 

 

Edited May 2, 2021 by Gigi43

[SunnyBeBe]

I’ve represented defendants in felony cases before, but never in federal court. I’ve also never represented anyone in this type of case.  I haven’t had time to look at the elements yet.  I may have time this week.  Does anyone know if he has a privately retained attorney?

Edited May 2, 2021 by SunnyBeBe

[hathorlive]

7 minutes ago, Gigi43 said:

Is it possible the site Josh used to dl the CP got busted and that's what triggered them onto Josh? It's been almost two years to the day that the Feds arrested him from when they took his computer and supposedly the dates of the CP was May14-16 (if that's true.) So for two years they could have tracked the source of where it came from, hopefully, and there's some kind of smoking gun with Josh's name on it. I just have to think after all this time, they wouldn't make the arrest if an easy 'it was someone on my computer' defense would work. 

 

 

We have busted sites with CP and taken the user's list info and parsed them out to the local police in that area.  It's possible.  Understand that Covid stopped many cases dead in their tracks.  Courts weren't functioning, getting warrants signed was a pain, so many cases were delayed.  It very well could be they saw Josh downloading files and it's taken this long to work the case.

[doodlebug]

The other thing about going to trial: hiring a defense attorney is very expensive.  The cost escalates dramatically if there is a trial and that lawyer is devoting 10 or more hours a day, every day, to one person's defense.  A trial can last a week or more, there are also other attorneys, paralegals and others assisting in the work for trial who also are paid on an hourly basis.

A 'cheap' defense attorney on a criminal case bills $200 an hour or more.  The guy Josh has is not cheap, he seems to be extremely experienced in this sort of case and is undoubtedly charging top dollar for his expertise.  Heck, his legal administrative assistant probably bills more than that to write up the documents.

If JB discovers that the case is not likely to be won (over 95% of federal cases end in conviction), he is going to opt for a plea bargain rather than a trial if only because he is the cheapest SOB to ever walk the face of the earth.

[Jeanne222]

51 minutes ago, Oldernowiser said:

I just keep thinking about how Josh might want to stay in jail because it’s safer than what 18 siblings and their spouses might have in mind for him. They have every right to DESPISE him. He’s always been their parents’ blatant favorite and in return he’s done nothing except bring scandal on the family, molest his sisters, risk killing off the TLC money, try to cheat on his wife on public website, and now he’s going to eat up a huge chunk of the family money for his defense for what is a really repugnant alleged criminal activity. 

Not to mention that he’s been semi-banned from the show for years, yet you know that he and his family have been getting more than their fair share of the proceeds from JB. It’s not like Josh could or would work hard enough to support a wife and 6.5 kids on his own. 

I can see them all fantasizing about a Murder on the Orient Express scenario and honestly, I wouldn’t blame them.

It's called enabling!  They should arrest JB and Michelle as enablers of this monster!

[doodlebug]

 

6 minutes ago, SunnyBeBe said:

I’ve represented defendants in felony cases before, but never in federal court. I’ve also never represented anyone in this type of case.  I haven’t had time to look at the elements yet.  I may have time this week.  Does anyone know if he has a privately retained attorney?

Yes, he does.  A guy named Gelfand out of St Louis who specializes in federal court cases, former prosecutor.  Thanks to Zella for the link

https://margulisgelfand.com/team/justingelfand/

He is also represented by Travis Story, an Arkansas lawyer, a fundy friend of JB who has done other legal work for the family.  Gelfand is the big gun, though.

[Jeanne222]

4 minutes ago, doodlebug said:

The other thing about going to trial: hiring a defense attorney is very expensive.  The cost escalates dramatically if there is a trial and that lawyer is devoting 10 or more hours a day, every day, to one person's defense.  A trial can last a week or more, there are also other attorneys, paralegals and others assisting in the work for trial who also are paid on an hourly basis.

A 'cheap' defense attorney on a criminal case bills $200 an hour or more.  The guy Josh has is not cheap, he seems to be extremely experienced in this sort of case and is undoubtedly charging top dollar for his expertise.  Heck, his legal administrative assistant probably bills more than that to write up the documents.

If JB discovers that the case is not likely to be won (over 95% of federal cases end in conviction), he is going to opt for a plea bargain rather than a trial if only because he is the cheapest SOB to ever walk the face of the earth.

I'm kind of hoping they go to trial and JB pays and pays and pays for his enabled monster son. 

[PrincessPurrsALot]

I figure JB is assessing the best option to attempt to keep at least some part of the gravy train rolling. While he has repeatedly defended Josh, if it's going to lose them everything, JB will drive the truck that runs over Josh, back it up and hit him again.  At some point golden boy status wears thin. 

I think they suspected there might be something of a sexual nature involved in the raid, although the may not have thought it would be pictures of child sexual assault, especially including a child under the age of 12, unless Joshie did a dramatic confession of his sins.  They were also probably concerned about the feds finding all kinds of financial crimes.  

I can also see Meeeechelle and Boob attempting to shift the blame to the persons who created these images and tempted poor, dear, vulnerable Josh.  In true Gothard fashion, they would have no qualms about blaming children who are abused for their abuse, no matter how horrific it is.

[Jeanne222]

Just now, doodlebug said:

 

Yes, he does.  A guy named Gelfand out of St Louis who specializes in federal court cases, former prosecutor.  Thanks to Zella for the link

https://margulisgelfand.com/team/justingelfand/

He is also represented by Travis Story, an Arkansas lawyer, a fundy friend of JB who has done other legal work for the family.  Gelfand is the big gun, though.

I thought I read he's represented by three attorneys...will have to look that up.

Found it.  On Friday, Duggar's attorneys – Justin Gelfand, Travis Story and Greg Payne – said in a joint statement that their client has pled not guilty to both charges and plans to "fight back in the courtroom."   https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2021/04/29/josh-duggar-arrested-feds-days-after-wife-pregnancy-announcement/7403586002/

I hope JB has really deep pockets because this one is gonna cost him!

[WinnieWinkle]

53 minutes ago, Heathen said:

Everybody deserves legal representation and due process, no matter how heinous the crime. That's the way our legal system works. 

Absolutely, and I apologize if my comment suggested otherwise.  I was more commenting on someone who, to me, sounded like he was  bragging about getting child molesters off the hook.  His mother must be so proud.

Edited May 2, 2021 by WinnieWinkle

[scriggle]

21 minutes ago, doodlebug said:

The other thing about going to trial: hiring a defense attorney is very expensive.  The cost escalates dramatically if there is a trial and that lawyer is devoting 10 or more hours a day, every day, to one person's defense.  A trial can last a week or more, there are also other attorneys, paralegals and others assisting in the work for trial who also are paid on an hourly basis.

A 'cheap' defense attorney on a criminal case bills $200 an hour or more.  The guy Josh has is not cheap, he seems to be extremely experienced in this sort of case and is undoubtedly charging top dollar for his expertise.  Heck, his legal administrative assistant probably bills more than that to write up the documents.

If JB discovers that the case is not likely to be won (over 95% of federal cases end in conviction), he is going to opt for a plea bargain rather than a trial if only because he is the cheapest SOB to ever walk the face of the earth.

Also expert witnesses are not cheap.

[Tuxcat]

Just thinking out loud here and pure speculation. We know the charges, if found guilty, would make Josh guilty of CSAI. In the psych world that qualifies him as a sexual offender which of course fits given his own admission. He admitted to "viewing addictions" and of course the whole Ashley Madison thing...  

However, given his past behavior as a teen combined with these new charges, the psych world might classify him as a true pedophile? Certainly I am not qualified to make that diagnosis - again just speculating. If that's the case though,  the research suggests that neurodevelpmental changes result in this type of attraction and thus rehabilitation is extraordinarily low. Treatment is centered upon removing access to images/minors/et cetera.

So could Josh argue in court, that since he was not properly diagnosed as a teen (and again as an adult) that fault lies with the family/providers ? Could he argue that he is blameless given his condition and inadequate preventative treatment?

It's a stretch, but wondering if that's a possible line of reasoning?

And for the record, I absolutely think he should be held criminally responsible assuming he is guilty of receiving and possession. I am just wondering where the lawyers could go.

[WinnieWinkle]

1 minute ago, Tuxcat said:

And for the record, I absolutely think he should be held criminally responsible assuming he is guilty of receiving and possession. I am just wondering where the lawyers could go.

I think given that his father will be footing his legal bill it's very unlikely they would ever go the route of blaming any decisions made by the family in the past.  If they do - wow!

[Lady Whistleup]

It's ironic that Smuggar is probably the only one of the 19 kids that JB and M had anything resembling normal parental affection for, and he's the bad seed of the family.

[farmgal4]

4 minutes ago, scriggle said:

Also expert witnesses are not cheap.

ONE expert witness in the Derek Chauvin trial costs $21,000.  I’m wondering just how much money Jim Boob is willing to shell out in order to keep Smuggar out of prison?

[SunnyBeBe]

Of course, one thing about a trial is that it may reveal details that a defendant may find embarrassing.  And, the outcome is uncertain. Can you live with worst case scenario? That’s often the bottom line...sometimes, a known outcome, even though painful, at least you are able to plan, accept, process and live with it.  If you gamble, you could lose and then what?  Reminds me of the recent college application charges that hit some celebs.  They were adamant they were NOT guilty, but, ended up pleading.  

[farmgal4]

8 minutes ago, Tuxcat said:

Just thinking out loud here and pure speculation. We know the charges, if found guilty, would make Josh guilty of CSAI. In the psych world that qualifies him as a sexual offender which of course fits given his own admission. He admitted to "viewing addictions" and of course the whole Ashley Madison thing...  

However, given his past behavior as a teen combined with these new charges, the psych world might classify him as a true pedophile? Certainly I am not qualified to make that diagnosis - again just speculating. If that's the case though,  the research suggests that neurodevelpmental changes result in this type of attraction and thus rehabilitation is extraordinarily low. Treatment is centered upon removing access to images/minors/et cetera.

So could Josh argue in court, that since he was not properly diagnosed as a teen (and again as an adult) that fault lies with the family/providers ? Could he argue that he is blameless given his condition and inadequate preventative treatment?

It's a stretch, but wondering if that's a possible line of reasoning?

And for the record, I absolutely think he should be held criminally responsible assuming he is guilty of receiving and possession. I am just wondering where the lawyers could go.

Casey Anthony and her attorney threw her father completely under the bus (they claimed that her father had been sexually abusing her for years) during that trial.  I can see Josh doing the same thing to Jim Boob and MEchelle.  He’s just that narcissistic IMO.

[mittsigirl]

47 minutes ago, doodlebug said:

I'm not a lawyer, but I've been a defendant, more than once, in civil cases.  It comes with the territory if you practice obstetrics in the US.  In all cases, I felt I had excellent legal representation and my lawyers were down to earth and very honest about what they saw as problems in the defense as well as in the plaintiff's case.  

As each case, approached trial, we all sat down and the legal team laid out the facts, the problems, the options.  Obviously, I wasn't going to jail, but it involved settlement offers to the plaintiffs if I approved.  I had insurance and, as long as no case settled or was judged for more than $1million, it was not coming out of my pocket.  That's one of the risks that a defendant in a civil case faces; if the judgement exceeds their coverage, they are on the hook for the rest.

Anyway, in all cases, I was advised as to what the lawyer thought might happen at trial and it was my option to settle or not.  One case, where I was a co-defendant, could've probably gone to court or settled for less; but one of my colleagues blatantly falsified the medical chart and her notes completely contradicted notes from another doctor and 2 nurses who were present at the time.  Juries don't like that kind of stuff, we settled. 

I've gone to trial twice, in the first case, the plaintiff's sister was her attorney and she wasn't even a litigator, let alone a malpractice expert.  Even before trial, my attorney advised me that the case was baloney and he recommended not settling because there was clearly no malpractice. That was my take on it too and the jury was out less than 10 minutes before they acquitted unanimously.  The other trial was a lot more complicated, the child who I'd delivered didn't file suit until he was 19 and he was 22 when it went to court.  Trying to remember details of a delivery that I did two decades earlier wasn't easy.  In any event, it was really our experts vs their experts.  Our experts won the day and that was also a win for the defense.

I really do think Josh was convinced that he was internet savvy enough that the feds weren't going to be able to trace his online activity and I can see him smugly insisting on going to trial.  He really does think he is all that.  Since every dime of his defense is coming from JB's pocket, I can see JB and Travis Story ultimately conferring with the defense lawyer and forcing Josh to plead out if the case is as strong as it probably is.  But, if it was solely up to Josh, I think he'd want to go the whole 9 yards.

I also think that JB knew about the charges, if nothing else, Travis Story would've gotten a copy of the original search warrant as well as the charges filed this week. Josh' attorney-client privilege with Travis probably begins and ends with JB knowing everything.  He might've shared the info with Michelle, but, just like the money, JB gets to decide who gets what and I don't think the other kids were told what the feds were looking for or what Josh might've done.  As far as JB is concerned, they are not in charge, he is.

Thanks for sharing your story! I love that there are professionals on here that have taught us so much. More learning going on here than on The Learning Channel!