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I think Paige will go very far. She is super fit, used to very difficult training, has dance experience, and she seems to have a decent personality. Plus she is paired with Mark, who is a tried and true pro.


There's a lot of nostalgia this season. I kind of feel like it could be anybody's to win.

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I think that there are 3 tiers this season. That's factoring everything in I can think of. Perceived dance ability, partner strength, personality type etc...

The weakest tier would include Geraldo, Marla, Doug, and Mischa.

The middle tier is Wanya, Von, Kim, and Jodie (because I do think Keo will be an anchor at some point during the season).

The top tier is Nyle, Paige, Antonio, and Ginger. My MBT pick pre-week one would be Antonio..

I think the most likely person to break out of my weak tier and go a little farther is Mischa. I think she could be an elegant dancer, and America has loved DWTS redemption stories in past seasons (just ask Andy Dick)...I just don't know if she's willing to give us that.

I wonder about Von a little (and the partnership with Witney), I think if I had to pick an earlier than expected elimination (maybe 9th or so) I might pick him. Wanya and Lindsay are my true unknown quantity team...they could go anywhere from 10th to 4th and I wouldn't be overly surprised.

Edited by PhD-Purgatory15
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I think Flutie will hang around a while just because people LOVE him. I think Von is probably the best known, having been the MVP of the most recent super bowl. Unless he has a horrible personality or can't dance at all, he's probably going to be in the finals. He's better known than Antonio.

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The first elimination will be someone out of Marla, Mischa, Doug, and Wanya.  Marla will split fanbases with Geraldo and I think Geraldo's got the edge.  Mischa will split fanbases with Jodie and Ginger.  Her personality and chemistry with Artem will also play a big role in how long she'll stay.  Doug will get lost among the other football players and it's not really Karina's style to let her partners get silly, like Emma & Bill Engvall or Michael Waltrip.  Wanya could easily be a shock elimination like Redfoo especially if he stumbles out of the gate.


The finals will consist of Jodie/Ginger (the one who doesn't make it will be the shock elimination of the season), Nyle, and a football player.  I think Paige will have a hard time breaking the final barrier unless she's just captures all the magic at the right time.


Between Von and Antonio, I think Von's got the nod as long as the dance ability is somewhat equal.  Von's the MVP.  Von went to one of the biggest universities in America with a huge alumni base.  Von can also seem pretty humble with his "when I retire I'm going to be a chicken farmer" schtick.  Witney's going to be his biggest hurdle, but as long as she approaches him like Alfonso instead of Cody, I think he'll make it.


I think Ginger could be the shock elimination because ABC will make sure she's treated with kid gloves.  I think that's going to hurt her.  She won't get damning criticism, but Carrie Ann won't cry at her dances either.  Her scores will probably be considered "slightly low" because they are going to want to make sure impropriety isn't shown.  Val will probably get pissed at some point.  She'll get railed in the public perception if she even has one bad package.

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I have Geraldo, Doug, Marla, and Kim as the first four eliminations. Maybe not in that order, but I'd be surprised if they all aren't out by week 4. The only celebs I could possibly swap in/out here: Kim/Mischa.

In the next tier, I have: Mischa, Paige, Wanya, and Ginger. I'm seeing a lot of early online support for Paige, but I can't see the core demo getting behind her enough to propel her to the finals. I know Mark is a fan of UFC, but the strength of that fanbase is very suspect. She's my most likely candidate for a "shocking elimination."

I predict Antonio, Jodie (Keo, stay out of her way), Nyle, and Von will make Top 4. I could see any of them taking the MBT, though I am leaning towards Antonio for two reasons: 1) Steeler Nation - a big, fierce, loyal fanbase voting for "their guy." 2) We've seen a trend, one I dislike, of the non-winning pros being pimped - I think Sharna coming close, but not having won yet will get some play. Especially in the latter stages of the season.

Edited by Mbeaker
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  • 2 weeks later...

I think it will be very competitive this season.  No Derek.  So that's one you use to could count on for the finals.  They keep giving Sharna celebs she should win with.  This season is no different.  Because there are so many football players, you can't just pencil them in either.  But you have to go with someone, so Sharna/Antonio with the terrible towels should make the finals.  They keep giving Val celebs who should go far (competent and known).  Also with GMA Ginger should at least make the finals.  I don't think UFC is that popular, especially with the DWTS audience.  But Mark is popular and creative.  Paige is an athlete with dancing skills.  So I put her in the finals.


I think the first three out will be Marla, Geraldo, and Kim.  I would've said Mischa but people on the boards remember her fondly.

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I think Wanya and Lindsay are going to take it, with Antonio and/or Von in the finals. I think Nyle may be in there as well. I think Jodie and Paige are going to be "surprise" eliminations. They were good, but got lost in the shuffle. They are probably going to pimp Ginger, but I'm not sure she is going to have the fanbase of the football players. There are several people good enough for the finals, though. It should be an interesting season.

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I think the four factors that go into winning DWTS are a reasonable amount of dance ability, entertaining performances, a likeable personality/rootable storyline, and an inherent fanbase. The winner always ranks high (though not necessarily highest) in all four. Someone who ranks really high in one area and really low in another always lasts longer than expected, while across-the-board mid-high are the "surprise" eliminations. Here are my predictions after Week 1, which of course could change as the season progresses:


Kim: good dance potential; great performance; bubbly personality (the screeching may be a bit much for some, but her type usually does well); nostalgia for Facts of Life + Real Housewives fans, there must be some RH voters since they keep casting from there, right? Prediction: middle tier of eliminations.


Paige: good dance potential; good performance; seems very sweet despite fighting for a living; not sure she'll bring many fans. Prediction: probably middle tier unless she wins over a lot of fans in the next few weeks. Could be this season's "surprise" elim. 


Doug: poor dancing; poor performance; seems like a nice guy; NFL fans are super supportive but split three ways this season. Prediction: among first 4 out


Jodie: good dance potential; last night's performance wasn't as good as I'd expected but will hopefully improve; has the comeback story + overcoming getting in her head like Candace; high fan base with Full House nostalgia + Fuller House surge. Prediction: If she doesn't make the finals, she'll be a "surprise" elim.


Geraldo: terrible dancing; not much performing; polarizing figure; who would be voting for him, Fox News fans? Prediction: among first 4 out


Marla: good dancing; will perform well on ballroom, not sure about Latin; being Trump's ex might help ('Murica fans got Bristol Palin to the finals, after all) but also could hurt; don't think she has a large fan base. Prediction: lower to middle tier elimination


Wanya: reasonable dancing; performed well for Motown, wonder how he'll do with other dances; had a lot of fun, which is a plus; Boys II Men fans. Prediction: Middle to upper tier elimination, possibly final four.


Ginger: good dancing; performed fine, wonder how she'll do with a more serious dance; bubbly personality which does well, but new mom shtick could get old; GMA/ABC pimping. Prediction: Middle to upper tier elimination, possibly final four.


Mischa; poor dancing; performed okay; worst possible personality for this show, will play terrible for the audience; how many OC fans out there? Prediction: Among first 4 out.


Nyle: great dancing potential; great performance; deaf storyline will totally draw the audience in, plus he's hot; recent ANTM winner should carry over some fans. Prediction: Finals


Antonio: fine dancing; fine performance; personality may come off as arrogant and turn people off; NFL fans split three ways. Prediction: middle to upper tier elimination, possibly finals but probably lower than Von


Von: good dancing; reasonable performance; a bit quirky in a good way; NFL fans split three ways. Prediction: middle to upper tier elimination, possibly finals.


TL:DR I predict Geraldo, Misha, and Doug to be out first in some order; then Marla, Kim, and probably Paige in some order; final four of Nyle, Von, Wanya, and either Jodie or Ginger, with Antonio and the other of Jodie/Ginger as possible spoilers. Nyle for the win. 

Edited by majormama
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I'm thinking the finals will include Sharna, who made the top 3 the last 2 seasons but didn't win; and Mark, who hasn't won since S8 but has been in the T3 five times since then.


None of the celebrities are up my alley so I can't make predictions based on their plausible fanbases.

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I think the first three out will be Marla, Geraldo, and Kim.  I would've said Mischa but people on the boards remember her fondly.

Looking at week 1, I should've gone with Mischa for the bottom instead of Marla or Kim.  I didn't think she would be that bad.  Marla and Kim have good performance skills.  If either of them had Derek as a partner, I would bet they'd make the finals because they have good attitudes to go with the performance.  But they don't.  So I still think they'd be toward the bottom--just not within the first 3 out.


The big question for me is "Will Wanya and Nyle be able to maintain throughout the competition with 1 week practice?"  They were really impressive.  If they do, they SHOULD be in the finals--knocking out the football players.

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