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absnow54

2021 Awards Season

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I know it's been an unconventional awards season, but I guess it was technically kicked off last weekend with the Golden Globes, and we still don't have a thread for it!

I think the acting race might be interesting this year for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. Jodie Foster hasn't been nominated for any of the other major awards so far this season, and Andra Day missed out on a SAG nomination. I thought Carey Mulligan (or maybe Frances McDormand) had it in the bag!

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I think The Mauritanian is a 2021 release.  So yeah, it was an odd nomination that people didn't expect.


Andra Day winning was a huge shocker.

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I was happy for Andra Day because she really was fantastic but I'll be darned if I saw that coming.  If nothing else, her win along with Foster's, prevents someone from running the table on the actress side.  In a vacuum that doesn't bother me but it feels like we've been getting a lot of that lately.  It's fun to spread the love.  

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31 minutes ago, kiddo82 said:

I was happy for Andra Day because she really was fantastic but I'll be darned if I saw that coming.  If nothing else, her win along with Foster's, prevents someone from running the table on the actress side.  In a vacuum that doesn't bother me but it feels like we've been getting a lot of that lately.  It's fun to spread the love.  

It's kind of like the Renee Zellweger stuff last year.  "Judy" did not get good reviews but Renee's performance did.  I love Renee in it and I just love her in general so I was cheering for her.  I haven't seen The US vs. Billie Holiday yet.

I was cheering for Carey Mulligan; I loved her performance.

Edited by Ms Blue Jay
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9 hours ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

It's kind of like the Renee Zellweger stuff last year.  "Judy" did not get good reviews but Renee's performance did.  I love Renee in it and I just love her in general so I was cheering for her.  I haven't seen The US vs. Billie Holiday yet.

I was cheering for Carey Mulligan; I loved her performance.

I always wondered how exactly the politics with Zellweger played out last year tbh. On paper, it should have been a slam dunk for Johansson: Praised performance in a praised movie. Big movie star finally getting her due. Yet she garnered no momentum whatsoever it seemed to me. Her history of controversial statements working against her? Overshadowed by Dern and Driver? I mean, she shouldn't be judged against the co-stars in her film, but compared to the other actors in her category. But perhaps unconsciously some voters fought "Driver and/or Dern gave a better performance, so I won't go with ScarJo." A mix of these factors? Something totally different?

Yeah, Zellweger is beloved, the performance was great and the Academy has lapped up tons of mediocre biopics in the past. But she came a bit out of nowhere and already had one Oscar. The politics of it all are sometimes fascinating stuff.

I could see Mulligan getting it this year, McDormand has an uphill battle with her two Oscars already IMO. But someone like Day might pull off an upset. It should be about the single performance, not life's work or reputation.

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I guess Scarlett's two performances cancelled each other out?  I actually preferred Scarlet's performance in Marriage Story over BOTH Adam's and Laura's.  But there's these Oscar narratives that just take over and Laura Dern became the favourite from the first minute of awards season to the last and there was no changing course.

I also vastly preferred Leo's performance over Brad's in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.  (Not only that, but I thought Tom Hanks and Taron Egerton's performances were way better than Brad's, too.) But god, every single awards body was going to give Brad the Oscar no matter what.

This kind of stuff drives me crazy.

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3 hours ago, katha said:

It should be about the single performance, not life's work or reputation.

I totally agree -- ideally!

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I think it's apparent that Chadwick Boseman is going to sweep through the best actor categories.  I want to start off by saying I think that's well deserved and it's shame he's not around to experience it.  Having said that, I've been actively avoiding any speeches his widow is making on his behalf.  Not because I don't want to hear what she has to say, but it just feels like being a voyeur into someone's grief.  If this is in any way cathartic for her then that's all the better, but it still makes me feel like I'm intruding. 

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The Critics Choice Awards weigh in!  Another good night for Nomadland as it takes Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay, but Francis loses to Carey Mulligan this time, so I don't see a third Oscar for her.  Supporting actress also goes to Maria Bakalova this time, so it looks like both of the actresses categories are more open compared to the mens, as both Chadwick and Daniel win in their respected categories.  Again, it is still early on, but I'm curious to see how this all goes in this admittedly weird award season.

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10 hours ago, thuganomics85 said:

Francis loses to Carey Mulligan this time, so I don't see a third Oscar for her.

Francis will need the SAG to stay in the race, because Carey has the British advantage for the BAFTAs. Andra Day isn’t up for a SAG, and we’ll have to see if she makes the cut for the BAFTAs tomorrow, but again, Carey has the British darling advantage. Rosemund Pike is another spoiler though, since she got the comedy GG. 

Supporting Actress could literally go anywhere at this point. I just don’t see the Academy giving an award to Borat though. 

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On 3/8/2021 at 9:22 AM, absnow54 said:

Francis will need the SAG to stay in the race, because Carey has the British advantage for the BAFTAs. Andra Day isn’t up for a SAG, and we’ll have to see if she makes the cut for the BAFTAs tomorrow, but again, Carey has the British darling advantage. Rosemund Pike is another spoiler though, since she got the comedy GG. 

Woah, I take it back Carey Mulligan didn’t make the cut for BAFTAs

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I'm glad she didn't, because I didn't like that movie or her in it. But the movie overall still looks strong with awards groups, so the BAFTA miss could be a fluke (the acting nominees were picked by juries this year, so that's the reason she missed). We'll have to see who wins SAG. I hope it's Viola Davis. 

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Pleasantly surprised that Mikkelsen made the cut for Best Actor at the BAFTAs. He's been getting some of the best notices of his career, but since the performance is not in English, it's flown under the radar. I don't think it will get him an Oscar nomination or anything, but at least it's been acknowledged somewhere...

He was sensational in "The Hunt" and "After the Wedding" as well, but again the performances weren't in English.

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Supporting Actor: The case can be made for Daniel Kaluuya, Fred is missing from the film for a bit when he goes to prison, but how in the hell is LaKeith Stanfield supporting?

Edited by AimingforYoko
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Yeah, you sometimes see an obvious lead being nominated for Supporting when it's a kid (Haliee Steinfeld being a good example), but that doesn't apply to StanfIeld. He was also being pushed as a lead too so the Academy did this all on their own.

I'm disappointed to not see One Night in Miami in the Best Picture lineup. Ma Rainey, not so much.

Sad about the almost total shutout of Da 5 Bloods, especially Delroy Lindo, who will probably never get this good a role and this good a chance at a nomination again.

I was really hoping to avoid seeing Hillbilly Elegy. Sigh.

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Nothing too egregious for me at least, but I am disappointed that One Night in Miami failed to score nods for either Best Picture or Director.  I wonder what held it back for some voters?

Still think Best Actor is going to Chadwick Boseman (unless Steven Yeun getting nominated changes anything) and Supporting Actor is probably still Daniel Kaluuya, but LaKeith Stanfield also getting a spot is certainly interesting, although I'm also trying to figure out how he's considered supporting.  Best Actress really is the main one that is up in the air for me.  Andra Day getting in means her Globe win wasn't a fluke, but she hasn't been nominated for some of the other precursors, so I certainly don't think she is given.  But it's not like any of the other four are on solid footing either.  I guess I'll wait for the SAGS and BAFTA wins before I decide to make any real prediction.  Supporting Actress is also a bit more unpredictable, but if I were to guess right now, I think it will come down to them either finally giving Glenn Close an Oscar (even though I heard not so good things about Hillbilly Elegy) or awarding Maria Bakalova for her breakthrough in a performance in a film in a genre that tends to get overlooked by the Academy.  Of course it could just end up being Olivia Colman again: making herself Close's nemesis!

While Supporting Actor isn't likely for Leslie Odom Jr., I didn't realize he actually co-wrote the song at the end for One Night in Miami, so he might still go home with a trophy after-all.  Not sure I would call it ironic, but it would be funny if he gets an Oscar before Lin-Manuel Miranda.  Aaron Burr doing what Alexander Hamilton hasn't (yet)!

My early prediction is still for Nomadland to do well, but I'm keeping my eye on Minari, because it had a pretty strong showing here as well.  I guess we'll find out in a month!

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I think Nomadland wins Best Picture, Director and for Cinematography. I would've thought McDormand would be the favorite for Actress, but the precursors have been all over the place, sooo... Watch the SAGs, I guess.

I have no clue for Best Supporting Actress, maybe Close will get it for lifetime achievement?

Best Actor, Boseman is the heavy favorite, with an outside shot for Sir Anthony.

Soul is a lock for Best Animated Feature.

I think Sorkin gets Best Original Screenplay.

Best Adapted, I'm thinking Kemp Powers for One Night in Miami.

That's all I got.

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What a cool year, lots of record breaking, lots of firsts, lots of Black and Asian movies and actors and people being nominated in different categories.  Two female directors, two Asian directors, two Asian men in Best Actor.  

Happy about a lot of these, happy about Carey Mulligan, happy about Tenet being recognized.

Stuff like this is so much more interesting than like, Scarlett Johansson being nominated twice and/or the entire cast of Bombshell being  nominated (I had to Google the film title because I forgot what it's called.)

Just a very interesting batch this year.  Very cool.  

1 hour ago, Slade347 said:

Sad about the almost total shutout of Da 5 Bloods, especially Delroy Lindo, who will probably never get this good a role and this good a chance at a nomination again.

I have friends who were really hoping he that would be recognized for the past year.  Sad.  

Forgot to mention:  Glenn Close being nominated for both the Razzie and the Oscar.

Edited by Ms Blue Jay

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Making productions work on Zoom has been one of the biggest hurdles for awards shows during the pandemic. From Daniel Kaluuya’s (“Judas and the Black Messiah”) muted audio reaction at the Golden Globes to Nicole Beharie (“Miss Juneteenth”) staring at a screen for about 10 seconds because of a delay before she heard her name announced on the Gotham Awards, there have been serious hurdles to pulling off a smooth virtual event. However, the decision to not allow Zoom speeches is now being seen as exclusionary. There’s a strong possibility that the entire slate of nominees in some categories, particularly the best International feature race, might not have anyone attending in Los Angeles. With fewer people on hand to pick up their statues, the broadcast could be lighter on the rousing acceptance speeches from major stars that make the Oscars appointment television.

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This year’s nominees are more diverse than previous editions and some of the leading contenders are poised to make history. Seventy women received a total of 76 nominations, with Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”) and Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”) becoming the sixth and seventh women to be nominated for best director. Nine of the 20 acting nominees are people of color, also a record. Under current and upcoming travel restrictions, several of those nominees may not be able to attend. Fennell and Zhao are frontrunners in categories including best picture, director, original and adapted screenplay. Neither of them are currently in the United States, nor are other nominees such as Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”), Sacha Baron Cohen (“Borat 2,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7”), Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”), Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”) and Yuh-Jung Youn (“Minari”).

The UK is set to ban international travel this week until mid-May or June. There are exceptions for essential activites and work, but would Oscar attendance really count? 

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In addition, some talent is currently filming in COVID bubble sets around the world. There are rumors that the Academy would ask for nominees to quarantine anywhere from five to 14 days prior to the ceremony. After attending the Oscars, the talent can’t just return to work — in many cases, attendees would need to quarantine for another 14 days after leaving the U.S. That would shut down productions from 10 to 30 days for people to attend the ceremony, potentially costing studios millions of dollars in delays. It does not appear that producers have asked for information on whether attendees have been vaccinated.

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The Oscars are hoping to figure out a way to recapture the magic at a time when awards shows are struggling to draw viewers. The Grammys and the Golden Globes, for instance, posted their lowest numbers ever, and this year’s crop of Oscar nominees lack any studio blockbusters like “Joker” or “Avatar.” That means that a battle between smaller movies like “Nomadland” or “Mank” for the top prize could be a difficult sell.

With producers eager to avoid Zoom thank you’s, there’s been a push to allow winners to pre-record speeches instead. But that comes with its own problems. There’s concern those speeches would appear flat, lacking the rush of excitement that comes with being declared a victor.  Also, talent and publicists fear the recordings of the losing nominees could leak online, making their clients look bad.

Can you imagine? Social media would have a field day! It would be like deleted scenes from a movie, except it's real life and way more embarrassing.

 

Some lesser shows like the People's Choice Awards would just tell the winners in advance, so the stars would bother to show up. The Oscars probably couldn't do that without the winners leaking in advance. There were some early years in Academy history when the winners were known ahead of time, but the suspense, however nominal, is part of the ceremony's appeal.

 

 

 

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The no Zoom thing in a pandemic is just stupid, and I agree, unfair to the historical nominees.  Unfair to all of the nominees, but really especially unfair for representation purposes.

I think that a lot of people/audience enjoy watching the stars at home.  There was so much discussion on Twitter about what people were wearing, their dogs, their spouses.  It's interesting and it definitely is more humanizing and relatable. 

The fact that the Oscars is against humanizing the nominated actors/directors/writers etc. says a lot, doesn't it?  

Edited by Ms Blue Jay
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22 hours ago, Ms Blue Jay said:

The no Zoom thing in a pandemic is just stupid, and I agree, unfair to the historical nominees.  Unfair to all of the nominees, but really especially unfair for representation purposes.

I think that a lot of people/audience enjoy watching the stars at home.  There was so much discussion on Twitter about what people were wearing, their dogs, their spouses.  It's interesting and it definitely is more humanizing and relatable. 

The fact that the Oscars is against humanizing the nominated actors/directors/writers etc. says a lot, doesn't it?  

Awards show ratings have dropped dramatically this season, far more than the usual annual erosion due to cord-cutting. The Oscar producers clearly think the issue is Zoom fatigue, and believe that putting together a ceremony closer to the more typical experience will mitigate the damage. I don't know about that: so many high-profile movies were pushed out of 2020 and theaters were closed for months. Titles got released to streaming, but largely came and went into almost a void, with TV shows IMO leaving a bigger overall pop culture imprint than films (though that did nothing for the Emmy ratings).

 

I have been a huge awards show person for most of my life, but find this season really hard to get into. I'll look up photos of what people wore, a clip of whatever unusual thing that happened, but haven't really been interested in watching the telecasts. I guess I liked all the pomp and circumstance of regular awards shows? The socially-distanced version just reminds me of Covid, and I get enough of that in real life, so I'd rather not. I don’t want the Oscars to go the CMA route and have a gathering lax on safety standards, either. America is looking to be in much better shape this April vs last November, but probably still not enough to pull off a totally in-person ceremony (albeit spread over two locations) with such a global pool of talent. Easy for me to say the Oscar producers are just going to have to take that ratings L on the show, but it's not my tens of millions of dollars on the line...

Edited by Dejana
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2 hours ago, Dejana said:

I don't know about that: so many high-profile movies were pushed out of 2020 and theaters were closed for months. Titles got released to streaming, but largely came and went into almost a void, with TV shows IMO leaving a bigger overall pop culture imprint than films (though that did nothing for the Emmy ratings).

I love going to movies and watching awards shows, but I can't get excited about them this year.  It's not uncommon for me to not know all of the nominated films (I tend to like the more popular stuff over the artsy/independent type movies), but I usually know a few. This year, when the first awards came out, I was surprised that there were enough movies released to even have an awards show.  When I read the names, I'd vaguely heard of a couple of them, but I felt no connection to any of them. I've since watched a couple and there are a few more that I want to try, but for the most part, this year was like one big "meh" for me.

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I actually think that the stuff that has been nominated is pretty decent in quality on the whole. To me it seems like there have been way worse years when it comes to the overall standard of films. But as was already said, since nothing can be released properly, a lot of it is on offer in some form on streaming services etc., but nothing really made an impression. So it's all very muted, as if we're all under water or something.

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I don't think it's quality either. Just nothing has really seized the zeitgeist. I really do think streaming hurts as there has to be an "I'll get to it eventually" mentality with general audiences..  Last year it felt like Parasite had this buzz about it but I don't get that sense with any of them this year. 

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I thought Tenet was amazing.  I didn't see it in the theatres but it was my favourite movie of what I'd seen in 2020.  Of course, there's not going to be a groundswell of support when everyone's watching at home.  The reviews from people seem to be very mixed, but I feel like if it was a big theatre event like back in the olden days a la "Inception" maybe it would have been more popular.  

I loved Promising Young Woman too, but I'd love it a lot more if 

Spoiler

not for that ending.

I think aside from the real film buffs, most people watched Parasite at home in 2019, too.  I remember watching it around Christmas because of the mountains of hype that preceded it.  People I know didn't bother trying it until after the nominations or maybe even after the Oscars broadcast.  But obviously, in 2019 there were regular festivals etc. that I assume led to the hype.  

Edited by Ms Blue Jay

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On 3/26/2021 at 1:59 PM, Ms Blue Jay said:

I thought Tenet was amazing.  I didn't see it in the theatres but it was my favourite movie of what I'd seen in 2020.  Of course, there's not going to be a groundswell of support when everyone's watching at home.  The reviews from people seem to be very mixed, but I feel like if it was a big theatre event like back in the olden days a la "Inception" maybe it would have been more popular.  

 

 

From Indiewire yesterday: Why Didn’t Warner Bros. Support a ‘Tenet’ Oscar Campaign? Christopher Nolan

 

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"Tenet” scored strong overseas numbers, but middling reviews (Metascore: 69). Limited access to theater seats over the next six months led to disappointing box office ($363.3 million worldwide so far). As theaters reopened around the country last weekend, the movie sold out on some New York and Los Angeles screens (playing to 25 percent capacity), just in time to play for vaccinated Academy voters.

It’s too late for that. Back in November, a bruised Nolan told Warners to put money on extending its release, not an Oscar campaign. Warners put its “Tenet” money into theaters where possible and published a Blu-ray as well as HD DVDs. Warners did not mail screeners to Academy members, did not plunk down $12,500 to upload the film on the Academy portal, placed no FYC ads, and mounted no digital screenings or Q&As.

Some craftspeople, like composer Ludwig Göransson, cooperated with editorial features on their own, and VFX house Double Negative supplied a sizzle reel to the VFX Oscar bake-off.

Things only got worse when WB announced the big HBOMAX deal for 2021. The talent got blindsided and Nolan was very vocal in his displeasure about it, even though Tenet wasn't affected. Unsurprisingly, WB wasn't thrilled with his comments.

 

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After “Tenet” received its two nominations March 15, Academy voters who clicked on the screening portal for links to the film saw that “Tenet” was “unavailable.” That meant any Oscar voter would have to find a DVD or a theater playing the film, which reaches HBO Max May 1 — six days after the Oscars ceremony April 25. It also means that Nolan’s Oscar campaign ban was depriving his own top-tier craftspeople of career-buttressing support. A 69 Metascore is more than respectable; Oscar-winner “Bohemian Rhapsody” scored 49. “Tenet” should have easily scored five or six nods.

Nolan finally relented; “Tenet” will be uploaded to the Academy portal March 29. “While we actively chose not to campaign the film,” said one Warners source, “at the filmmaker’s request, we will be supporting the nominations by putting the film on the AMPAS platform and passing members through the theaters.”

I don't think the Bohemian Rhapsody-Tenet is totally apt (BR had many more advantages, like nostalgia and being in a genre favored by the Oscars), but Tenet's minimal awards showing makes more sense now. And without having to campaign for the big Nolan movie, the WB awards team was able to give much more attention to Judas and the Black Messiah. 

 

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Tonight's SAG awards had all the major acting awards for motion picture go to actors of color: Kaluuya, Davis, Boseman, and Youn!

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1 hour ago, PepSinger said:

Tonight's SAG awards had all the major acting awards for motion picture go to actors of color: Kaluuya, Davis, Boseman, and Youn!

Really cool.  

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I think that acting lineup might stick, with Andra Day being the possible spoiler to Viola Davis. Chloe Zhao also seems to be the favorite for Best Director this year. 

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BAFTA Winners:

Film: Nomadland

Director: Chloe Zhao

Actress: Frances McDormand

Actor: Anthony Hopkins 

Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jong Youn

Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya

Adapted Screenplay: The Father 

Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman 

Other winners can be found here: https://www.bafta.org/film/awards/2021-nominations-winners

Edited by ProudMary
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I think the Oscar for Best actress is going to go to either Francis McDormand or Carrey Mulligan. There is no way they are going to give Best actress, Supporting actor & Best actor all to Black actors. Daniel Kaluuya is going to win best supporting & Chadwick is a lock for Best actor. If Viola Davis was white she would win. As far as supporting actress I think it's going to go to Yuh-jung Youn. Best director is going to go to Chloe Zhao. Best picture is going to be Nomadland. Oh & Best animated picture is going to Soul(which it deserves). 

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The Oscars have come close.

Both Halle Berry and Denzel Washington won in 2001.

Jamie Foxx and Morgan Freeman won in 2004.

Both Viola Davis and Mahershala Ali won in 2016.

Regina King and Mahershala Ali won in 2018.

I think that it COULD happen.  Will it?  I don't know.

Edited by Ms Blue Jay
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The is the deepest best actress race that I can ever recall and I love that 4 of the 5 have all split the major precursors.  Having said that, the only one that I would actually be disappointed to see win is McDormand.  I've said this before and I'll say it again, being understated and nuanced and acting in the quiet moments is very, very underrated and I wish that was appreciated as much as the yelling and the screaming and the crying that typically wins these things.  Having said that, I just don't know how you compare what she had to do in Nomadland to the rest of the field.  Day, Mulligan, and to a lesser extent Kirby all had to carry their films.  Davis does yield a lot to Boseman but she is no less a force for it.  And that's not to say that because those 4 had more showy roles they also didn't have quiet moments as well.  They did and they were excellent.  I think the real star of Nomadland is Chole Zhao's direction and that will more than likely get its due.  Personally, I hope it comes down to Mulligan or Davis and lately I get the sense the tide has been turning towards Davis.

Edited by kiddo82
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I usually have a feel this late in the game for most of the major Oscar categories. I think Chloe Zhao and Nomadland are locks for Director and Picture, respectively. I think Chadwick is a lock for best actor and Daniel Kaluuya is close to a lock for Best Supporting Actor. I think Yuh-Jong Youn is a favorite, but not a lock for Best Supporting Actress. 

Best Actress, I have no feel for. If Carey Mulligan, Viola Davis or Frances McDormand won, I would not be shocked. I've never seen it this wide open.

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Is there a BAFTA award show discussion forum?  I like to watch award shows for the clips they show, mostly, but this time around the BAFTAs were agonizing to me. The host, Edith Bowman, was unwatchable. I guess she's a radio personality?  She kept flapping her arms about, mostly because she had no idea what to do with her hands while she was talking, and I gave up trying to watch her. 

Plus, apparently, looking like you haven't combed or styled your hair is the thing these days. 

I fast forwarded through a lot of the show, sadly, paused on the clips and watched the final awards. Kudos to Nomadland and Promising Young Woman.  

/rant

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3 hours ago, cardigirl said:

Is there a BAFTA award show discussion forum?  I like to watch award shows for the clips they show, mostly, but this time around the BAFTAs were agonizing to me. The host, Edith Bowman, was unwatchable. I guess she's a radio personality?  She kept flapping her arms about, mostly because she had no idea what to do with her hands while she was talking, and I gave up trying to watch her. 

Plus, apparently, looking like you haven't combed or styled your hair is the thing these days. 

I fast forwarded through a lot of the show, sadly, paused on the clips and watched the final awards. Kudos to Nomadland and Promising Young Woman.  

/rant

There should be a BAFTA thread in the subforum for TV specials, along with threads for the Oscars, Grammys, Golden Globes, etc.

Edith Bowman was the host? A couple of years ago, she was doing the BAFTA red carpet interviews (in a ridiculous outfit). I've heard her as a guest host on the BBC movie review radio show/podcast, and I've never minded her there, but haven't felt compelled to seek out any more of her work. These are pretty tough circumstances for awards shows, even for stars very experienced with hosting them.

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At this point, I might almost throw my vote for Vanessa Kirby for Best Actress, because with the other four all winning one of the main precursors, it would almost be fitting for it to go to the one who didn't win one.  Realistically though, I might be leaning slightly towards Carey Mulligan because she hasn't won before, and both Francis McDormand and Viola Davis have had aspects in their roles that can arguably be held against them (the former being too quiet or subtle, the latter not having as much screen time compared to the rest.)  But, hell, Andra Day winning the Globe unexpectedly was what kicked all of this off, so maybe it would be fitting if she ends up winning the Oscar as well.

In short, anything can happen! 

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48 minutes ago, thuganomics85 said:

At this point, I might almost throw my vote for Vanessa Kirby for Best Actress, because with the other four all winning one of the main precursors, it would almost be fitting for it to go to the one who didn't win one.

I want this to happen so badly now because I'm picturing them all like the power rangers and they're combing the powers of their individual awards to form a super team.

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I think Viola Davis is the favorite only because the SAG has the largest voting body in the Academy. McDormand would be the next most likely, as she picked up nominations in all the major awards, and won the BAFTA. Then Andra Day, then a toss up between Mulligan and Kirby. Davis and McDormand both suffer from "didn't they just win?" although Davis has never won Best Actress, only supporting. There's also the idea that the Academy won't give all the major awards to POC in one season, which could also spoil a win for Davis. Out of the other three actresses, Mulligan has the highest pedigree, but this is only her second Oscar nomination, so she can't really ride the "It's her turn" narrative. I don't know. This is a complete toss up to me.

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Nomadland has always seemed like one of those more respected than loved frontrunners, and thus was always ripe for an upset. The problem is, no other film really ever emerged as a viable alternative. I thought Minari might be that film, but it never seemed to get that big groundswell going other than with Yuh-Jung Youn. I wonder if it not being on a mainstream streaming service has hurt its chances? Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are too divisive and Mank is even more of a respect rather than love movie than Nomadland. The rest were always destined for second division status. Ultimately, I can't see any film but Nomadland taking Picture, and Zhao seems like a shoo-in for Best Director. 

I think Hopkins' performance is staggering and he still has a shot at winning, but Boseman is so beloved that I can't pick against him. Actress? Your guess is as good as mine. I'll give McDormand a very slight edge over Mulligan (and that pick has actually changed since I originally wrote this post). I haven't seen anything to move away from Kaluuya, and as mentioned earlier, Yuh-Jung Youn has emerged as the clear favorite in Supporting Actress. There's been a lot of buzz about The Father taking Adapted Screenplay, but I'm going to stick with Nomadland and I'm on board with Fennell and PYW taking Original Screenplay.

As for the other categories, Soul will take Animated Feature and Score. Nomadland should beat out Mank for Cinematography, but the latter should win in Production Design. Ma Rainey will take Makeup/Hairstyling and should take Costume Design too, but I wouldn't count out either Emma or Mank. Sound of Metal will take Sound (duh!) and I think it grabs Editing too. My heart says "Husavik" for Song, but my head says "Speak Now." BTW, Diane Warren is responsible for some of the worst music over the last forty years. I don't care if she ever wins an Oscar.

I've resigned myself to the awful My Octopus Teacher winning Documentary even though every other nominee would be a much better choice. I think A Love Song For Latasha takes Documentary Short, while If Anything Happens I Love You grabs Animated Short. I don't have a feel one way or the other for Live Action Short, so I'll just go with what I think is the best of the bunch and that was The Present. Lastly, I'm going with Quo Vadis, Aida? in an upset for International Feature Film.

 

 

Edited by Slade347 · Reason: Forgot category
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21 minutes ago, Slade347 said:

Nomadland has always seemed like one of those more respected than loved frontrunners, and thus was always ripe for an upset. The problem is, no other film really ever emerged as a viable alternative. I thought Minari might be that film, but it never seemed to get that big groundswell going other than with Yuh-Jung Youn. I wonder if it not being on a mainstream streaming service has hurt its chances? Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are too divisive and Mank is even more of a respect rather than love movie than Nomadland. The rest were always destined for second division status. Ultimately, I can't see any film but Nomadland taking Picture, and Zhao seems like a shoo-in for Best Director.

Agree.  Especially with the preferential ballot system this would be the perfect year for a Ford vs. Ferrari or The Post to swoop in and shock everybody.  (technically well done, non-controversial, crowd pleasing film that no one really loved and no one really hated.)  There just isn't that type of movie this year.  Personally, I think Trial of the Chicago 7 comes closest to that but it's not without its flaws or detractors.  I still think this is all Nomadland.     

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