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Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?

Serena

By Serena
in Once Upon A Time

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Emma

Emma

(edited)

Once had a 2.7 in the top 25 markets. Up from a 2.6 last week. That translated into a 2.3 before being adjusted up to a 2.4 in the finals.

**ETA**

Scored a 2.5 and 7.33 million viewers.

Edited by Emma
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Shanna Marie
Shanna Marie

I've realized that my feelings about the show's current status and cancellation potential are like when you're in that phase of a relationship where you're realizing it's not working, but you don't re

Curio
Curio

So, this OUAT ad played during the Oscars last night. The Oscars drew 32.9 million viewers. Not including sporting events, the Academy Awards is consistently one of the most-watched events on tel

Mari
Mari

So, the last five minutes were so bad they caused widespread device malfunction?  Sounds about right.

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HoodlumSheep

HoodlumSheep

(edited)
That's pretty on par with the last weeks L+whatever ratings if I recall correctly.

It'll be interesting to see the L+3 and L+7 for 4x05 when it gets released.

*I keep on editing because I can't seem to keep all the different ratings straight :(**

Edited by HoodlumSheep
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Souris

Souris

Here's a list of the S4 ratings so far. Those are all final overnight ratings, it looks like. I take no small amount of pleasure in noting that the vaunted SQ ep had the fewest viewers and lowest rating. Yes, that was the World Series week, but it was a weak WS in the ratings.

 

There was also notable drop between eps 2 & 3, which I think was some of the Frozen fans deciding not to continue after the live-action novelty wore off.

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InsertWordHere

InsertWordHere

I'm torn, because I do think the previous episode often has a lot to do with the next week's ratings, but boy, do I want the writers to see those ratings and blame it on their writing for Regina. Who am I kidding? It's not like it helped at all in Season Two when the largest ratings drop took place.

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Camera One

Camera One

do I want the writers to see those ratings and blame it on their writing for Regina.

 

If the writers jump to any conclusions, it would unfortunately be "We were right not to do an Emma flashback until now and we will never do one again since it's a ratings dropper."

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KingOfHearts

KingOfHearts

(edited)

 

Who am I kidding? It's not like it helped at all in Season Two when the largest ratings drop took place.

I don't need to bring up the 3B ratings, which had the lowest ratings in the show's history, either... and that was Regina's "finest hour"!

Edited by KingOfHearts
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stealinghome

stealinghome

If you think about it, there's a perverse kind of Stockholm Syndrome-like thing going on. Maybe at this point, the creators have realized that the people still hanging on are either a) total Regina stans or b) Charmings/Rumbelle-lovers who will choose watching their favorite characters over dropping the show because of Regina. Maybe it's kind of brilliant. They know anyone who was turned off by Woegina Is Amazing has left the show, so now they can do whatever they want with her because the remaining audience has proven they won't go away....

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InsertWordHere

InsertWordHere

(edited)

If the writers jump to any conclusions, it would unfortunately be "We were right not to do an Emma flashback until now and we will never do one again since it's a ratings dropper."

As much as I really do think they would happily blame it on Emma (man, they're such Reginas), it really wouldn't be fair because the preview gave no indication that there would be an Emma flashback. I don't think the general audience follows OUaT media coverage. Now that I think about it, didn't Tallahassee get a big drop too? Oh no, they really will start thinking that Emma flashbacks don't bring ratings.

Edited by InsertWordHere
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InsertWordHere

InsertWordHere

Thanks, it's been some time since I read the beginning of this thread. I'll remember to look next time. Yeah, Child of the Moon had the big drop, losing 1.4 million viewers and going from a 3.5 to a 2.7. Since I usually attribute ratings drops to the contents of the previous episode, my mind translated it as Tallahassee having poor ratings. Which I wouldn't blame on Ema, but on the portrayal of the Emma/Neal relationship and the life-ruining decisions made on her behalf by two adult men.

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stealinghome

stealinghome

I suspect it was more that 2A got really frustrating around 'Tallahassee.' At that point, things were dragging out like whoa. (Also, given that it recovered in 2x08, I suspect there was some big sporting event that night, either the World Series or a big big football game.)

 

It is physically painful to remember that there was a time this show so rarely went below a 3.0. ugh.

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KAOS Agent

KAOS Agent

The Evil Queen was the lowest rated of Season 2, Bleeding Through was the lowest rated of Season 3 and the episode marketed as the Swan Queen episode is the lowest rated thus far in Season 4. If anyone is looking for a pattern...

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InsertWordHere

InsertWordHere

(edited)

It doesn't look like there was much going on. No World Series, as it was already November. Sunday Night Football had a 7.0, but it also had a 7.3 the week before when Tallahassee aired. Maybe the weather was bad. The Walking Dead's ratings appear to have gone down slightly that week as well.

 

It likely means nothing, but I always focus on that drop for some reason.

Edited by InsertWordHere
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myril

myril

As much as I really do think they would happily blame it on Emma (man, they're such Reginas), it really wouldn't be fair because the preview gave no indication that there would be an Emma flashback. I don't think the general audience follows OUaT media coverage. Now that I think about it, didn't Tallahassee get a big drop too? Oh no, they really will start thinking that Emma flashbacks don't bring ratings.

 

I am at the point, where I don't mind if they won't ever again do any Emma flashback and leave the character alone, let her silently drop out of the show, so I can keep my head canon intact instead. 

 

But I wouldn't stare at the ratings of one episode and assume it has that much to do with one character or episode story line. Given, an exciting guest star well promoted can do something for viewer numbers, as can eventually some taunting scene (remember the lesbian sweep week kiss), but it is then a lot about promotion. There is a general margin of fluctuation always possible.

 

What might be possible to tell for the moment, I think is, that the sensation of Frozen draw in a few more people for the season premiere, though can't tell if that was as high as they expected or hoped for, but it didn't keep them watching the show. Numbers are already pretty much what they've been at the beginning of season 03, though an improvement compared to where they ended that season. Looking at the ratings 18-49 one can speculate, they got a few more younger people in for the Frozen sensation maybe.

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stealinghome

stealinghome

(edited)
It likely means nothing, but I always focus on that drop for some reason.

Well, I DO think that week was a tipping point for a lot of people. The previous weeks had been in the 3.3-3.5 range, which was more or less what the show get through S1. After 2x07, however, we never got back above a 3.1 and pretty soon were clawing at the lower 2s (until Frozen). That's pretty telling to me--it seems like that was the week where a not-insignificant chunk of the viewership said "screw it, we're out."

Edited by stealinghome
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Shanna Marie

Shanna Marie

And, as usual, they're airing a pivotal event on a night I have a concert. I'm singing in a concert of Vivaldi's Gloria the night of the two-parter, and then the Christmas concert is the night of the mid-season finale. They must be conspiring with my choir director.

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MDKNIGHT

MDKNIGHT

 

They must be conspiring with my choir director.

Who is somehow related to Regina and or Rumple I'm sure.

 

So what do the numbers mean in a more general way?  It was recently 6th drama but out of how many?  Is 6th good?  It is getting numbers in the 2's when it used to be in the 3's.  What number or below usually gets a show canceled? 

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Emma

Emma

December should be easy enough to get through because of the holidays. January will be tough though. That month I'll be turning over every rock looking for filming spoilers. Mid February they should start promoting again so that should help.

Who am I kidding? I'll be climbing the walls the night after the mid season finale.

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Dani-Ellie

Dani-Ellie

So what do the numbers mean in a more general way?  It was recently 6th drama but out of how many?  Is 6th good?  It is getting numbers in the 2's when it used to be in the 3's.  What number or below usually gets a show canceled?

 

I'm not sure about the more specific questions, but ratings in terms of cancellation are generally relative to the other shows on the same network. Supernatural, for example, has been pulling 1.0s and 1.1s this season, which would put it in the danger zone if it were on, say, CBS but those numbers actually make it the second highest rated show on The CW. This post at TV By the Numbers does a pretty decent job at explaining the ins and outs in plain English.

 

So Once's ratings have indeed dropped from the heyday of season one, but as of this TVBTN posting, it's still the fourth highest rated script show on ABC, which means it still has a ways to go before its ratings drop into the danger zone. Of course, nothing is ever certain and if there's another nosedive in ratings like there was in the back half of season two, it could spell trouble, but as of right now, there's no reason to really worry.

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stealinghome

stealinghome

Also, most shows that hit 4 seasons get a fifth, just for syndication reasons. Short of Once falling below 1.0, which I don't see happening, I definitely think we're going to get a Season 5. Past that, I think it will depend on the S5 ratings and when the original cast's contracts are up.

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Aliasscape

Aliasscape

(edited)

Plus Once has the advantage of being produced by ABC studios. It means syndication, streaming, DVDs, all that revenue comes back to them making it a more lucrative show to keep than something with the exact same ratings (or even slightly better ratings) being produced by a different studio that they'd have to split profits with.

Edited by Aliasscape
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paulvdb

paulvdb

And something else to keep in mind, ratings for this show have fallen since the first season, but live TV viewing goes down every year. That means that the threshold for cancellation also goes down every year. Just check back a few years and you'll see that the current ratings would have led to certain cancellation back then, but now they make Once one of ABC's highest rated shows. If I remember correctly Desperate Housewives had A18-49 ratings in the double digits in its first season. The most succesful scripted netwerk series now get less than half of that in L+SD ratings.

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retrograde

retrograde

Vulture gives OuaT props for its ratings turnaround this season in an article on fall TV trends:

 

... a few established series have bucked the trend this season, most notably ABC’s Once Upon a Time. Thanks to savvy (and quick) thinking by the show’s producers, Once was able to put together a Frozen-themed story line less than a year after the hit Disney movie opened in theaters. The result: Ratings this fall are up 13 percent in the under-50 demo
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Featherhat

Featherhat

(edited)

Plus Once has the advantage of being produced by ABC studios. It means syndication, streaming, DVDs, all that revenue comes back to them making it a more lucrative show to keep than something with the exact same ratings (or even slightly better ratings) being produced by a different studio that they'd have to split profits with.

 

 

Not only that it also has the unique advantage of being tied into Disney, in the way that we've experienced all along but most notably with Frozen, which allowed the network to boost ratings and publicity and Disney to explore just how to deal with keeping their latest phenomenon going since the movie isn't exactly crying out for a sequel.

 

 

Vulture gives OuaT props for its ratings turnaround this season in an article on fall TV trends:

 

 

Interesting analysis. Even though it fell after the 1st 2 episodes I think Once is up on where it would be without Frozen and with 3B hanging over their heads. I'm not sure I agree that Sleepy Hollow and SHIELD are guaranteed to reach 100 each though, probably more than 50% but they seem to be taking certain things for granted which I don't think should be in the current landscape.

 

The ratings seem to have stabilized for now in the mid 2s live + same day which is good enough, it just depends on whether 4B has enough

Maleficent movie juice, the *other big Disney movie recently* 

  to sustain it.

Edited by Featherhat
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Serena

Serena

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I don't watch previews, or read spoilers, but did I hear right and that next week we get 2 hours?  I thought the 4A finale was going to be 2-hours?  Is that still the case?

No, the 4A finale is just one hour, and the next episode is 2. ABC recently increased the episode order to 23, so it is one additional hour.

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Emma

Emma

No adjustment up in the demo and only a slight increase in viewers for Sundays episode.

Is there someplace that lists the L+3 and L+7 numbers for each ep?

Do you mean a site that archives all the numbers? There's a ratings thread on Fan Forum that's kept a pretty good record. I can post the link again when I get home.

I don't know of any such site for L+3 numbers. We're lucky to get those if some one in the media posts them.

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Souris

Souris

Do you mean a site that archives all the numbers? There's a ratings thread on Fan Forum that's kept a pretty good record. I can post the link again when I get home.

 

Yep. I've seen archives of the overnight numbers, but not L+7. Ideally, I'd like to see both together.

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Emma

Emma

http://www.fanforum.com/f373/once-upon-time-ratings-thread-6-onwards-s4-demos-63124636/

Seasons 1 and 2 only have the finals. It wasn't until season 3 they started including the DVR numbers. I don't know why the last 5 or so of season 3 or season 4 are not updated in the OP. Those numbers were posted in the thread so if you skim through you'll find them.

There's only 5 previous threads so it shouldn't be too bad to scan from the start if you want.

I'll keep looking to see if there's a better archive.

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