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Ratings and Scheduling: Who's the fairest of them all?


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Joe Adalian from Vulture is reporting DVR ratings (those are Live+3, not L+7): "#OnceUponATime grew to a big 4.6 A18-49 in A18-49 and 12.3M viewers in A18-49, up from 3.7/10.2M in same day"

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I will be interested to see if they manage to sustain higher numbers--Frozen might be what drew people's interest, but if they don't find what Once is doing with Frozen interesting, they won't stay for Frozen.  If Once doesn't manage to make their standard characters likeable, the viewers aren't going to stay for 4B.

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Oh, I have no doubt most Frozen people are going to bail after 4A. But I don't see why most would bail after 401: of all the things the writers did wrong, I thought they did the Frozen bits pretty much perfectly.

 

Year-to-year comparison: last year's premiere L+3 demo rating was 3.5.

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I think that's why they are smart with where they are going in 4B. Perhaps you can then keep this Frozen crowd around for the second half of the season as well.

Edited by sharky
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My theory is a whole half season is long enough for them to love the Frozen bits but realize that the writers of Once can't plot to save their lives. They already love the Frozen characters and many seem to be falling for the actors (especially Georgina.) But if they pack them off into the sunset in the 4A finale, most Frozen fans will not return. That combined with a 3 month gap, and the springtime viewership drop anyway, will probably make for a major drop in 4B ratings. But it won't matter if the Frozen fans stuck through most of 4A. The season average will be perfectly respectable.

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Their big chance is to have a huge, OMG!, need-to-know-what-happens cliffhanger. That way some people who just tuned in for Frozen may come back for the 4B premiere... and promptly tune back out when the payoff is a joke.

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Yeah, the real trick is going to be whether they can make the Storybrooke half of the show compelling enough for Frozen fans that Frozenites will be interested in tuning in in March despite the lack of Frozen. They're not off to a great start on that with 4x01.

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4B

also has a popular Disney villain who had a big movie recently and that movie was probably one of the deciding factors in creating the 4b arc

right after the Frozen one, to try and hang to any gained momentum.

Edited by stacey
Spoiler tagging Season 4B information
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Yeah, the real trick is going to be whether they can make the Storybrooke half of the show compelling enough for Frozen fans that Frozenites will be interested in tuning in in March despite the lack of Frozen. They're not off to a great start on that with 4x01.

 

A&E's strategy from what we saw in 4x01 in that regards is to create as many Captain Swanners, Outlaw Queeners and maybe Rumbellers out of the new Frozen folk as possible.  

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Those are S1 numbers so I wonder how many are brand new, "never seen a single episode just tuning in for Frozen" vs. casual viewer of S1, left during craptastic S2, but tuning in for Frozen people?

If it's the latter I don't see those types hanging around because the show is pretty much still stuck on S2 characters wise. If it's more Frozen newbies, you'd have to wonder why they never checked it out in the first place and what will keep them after. It'll probably be easier to go after the new viewers than the lapsed ones.

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Well, we expected a drop off and there it is. Still not a bad number though.

 

Is it really a drop, though? Spoiler TV was reporting 2.6/7 at the same point in the reporting cycle last week (see the bottom of the first page of thread).

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http://www.tvmediainsights.com/forum/topic/sunday-100514/

 

8:00 p.m.

ABC – Once Upon a Time

Viewers: 8.30 million (#13), A18-49: 3.0/ 9 (#2)

8:30 p.m.

ABC – Once Upon a Time

Viewers: 8.90 million (#3), A18-49: 3.2/ 9 (#2)

Once Upon a Time (8-9pm – 8.6 million and 3.1/9 in AD18-49): Nearly quadrupling its Adult 18-49 lead-in at 8pm (+288% over a replay of the prior week’s OUAT premiere), ABC’s Once Upon a Time (3.1/9) took second to Sunday Night Football, beating CBS’ 60 Minutes/Madam Secretary by 63% (1.9/5) and Fox’s The Simpsons/Brooklyn 9-9 by 72% (1.8/5). For the 2nd week in a row, Once Upon a Time was up from its year-ago telecast in Total Viewers (+8% – 8.6 million vs. 8.0 million) and Adults 18-49 (+19% – 3.1/9 vs. 2.6/7). The ABC drama was the #1 most social non-sports broadcast on Sunday with 81,442 tweets. Trailing only the prior week’s season opener, Once Upon a Time scored its 2nd-highest numbers since January 2013 in viewers and young adults – since 1/6/13.

Edited by Artsda
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Is it really a drop, though? Spoiler TV was reporting 2.6/7 at the same point in the reporting cycle last week (see the bottom of the first page of thread).

Why was I thinking we had a 3.6 at some point last week? Must've been a final number compared to this prelim one.

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Why was I thinking we had a 3.6 at some point last week? Must've been a final number compared to this prelim one.

The fast national rating was a 3.4 and then raised to a 3.7 in the finals.

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I think we can expect an adjustment this week too. It happens almost every week. Also, the fact that it went up instead of down in the half hour is a good sign. It means people were tuning in (maybe once the game was over?), not out.

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Was listening to EW radio this afternoon and they were mentioning the top shows in the key demo 18-49 and Once is #12 higher than Scandal and How to get away with murder for the first two weeks of the new season.

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Don't know a out that but Once was @12,HTGAWM was #13 and Scandal was #14.Btw Modern Family was #11. The top ten were mostly football games and pre-game or after-game shows and the Simpsons/Family guy crossover show and the Big Bang Theory.

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I think CW and ABC Family sell ads on the 18-34 ratings. ABC usually doesn't, but in their press releases they report all kind of stuff that makes their ratings sound impressive.

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(edited)

Ooops. Nielsen seems to have screwed up all ratings since August 18. That means the ratings we got for 401 and 402 may possibly be wrong. It's not just a OUAT thing, it's a "all of television" thing. That's kind of a huge mistake. ABC already gave the back 13 order to two shows based on their ratings. What if they're wrong?

Edited by Serena
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Whoa. It sounds like it's going to affect just a small fraction of a percent of the reported numbers, but that still seems crazy. I wonder how messed up the new ratings are going to be.

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I had a weird dream last night that Once Upon a Time's next episode had absolutely no Frozen characters in it and my only thought on it all was, well, that's going to wreck their ratings. They need to do at least 3 in a row to get people in the habit of watching it. Apparently, how good the ratings will or won't be is my main concert about the content of a new episode.

 

That Nielsen mess up though...

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(edited)

Joe Adalian from Vulture is reporting that Once got a 2.6, with 7.7M viewers, and was Sunday #1 broadcast drama. I don't understand the drop between 402 and 403? They basically lost all the Frozen gains. 2.6 was the demo of the S3 premiere, and I think the highest they got in S3.

Edited by Serena
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