S40.E08: This is Where the Battle Begins

[skybolt]

12 hours ago, ljenkins782 said:

IBen is ALWAYS annoying, IMO. I feel like he was shoved down our throats in his season because we were supposed to root for the veteran,  but his personality is unpleasant. He’s sycophantic and annoying with the men and fairly dismissive of women in general.

and it’s laughable that he considers himself a threat among this group of people. Based on what, exactly? All I remember of his original season is the horrible twist that gave him the chance to win when he was absolutely going out 4th and that he found idols. Not a strategic, physical or social threat, IIRC. 

Not to mention the dig here sign at the confessional to find the idol. Production was doing everything to give him the win that season. 

[peachmangosteen]

13 hours ago, tvfanatic13 said:

So, everyone in the game (except Sandra) is in the jury??

Yes. It's the same as the original EoE season. I do still wonder though, if someone leaves EoE now, are they still on the jury?

[skybolt]

1 minute ago, peachmangosteen said:

Yes. It's the same as the original EoE season. I do still wonder though, if someone leaves EoE now, are they still on the jury?

I doubt it. Leaving EoE is likely seen as quitting the game. Ponderosa is not a thing this year.

[peachmangosteen]

See, I was assuming they'd still be on the jury. In all honestly, it'd probably just be whatever they decided in the moment lol. I kinda hope someone leaves EoE now just so we can see what happens with that.

[skybolt]

3 minutes ago, peachmangosteen said:

See, I was assuming they'd still be on the jury. In all honestly, it'd probably just be whatever they decided in the moment lol. I kinda hope someone leaves EoE now just so we can see what happens with that.

Going back to Season 38, I did notice that the EoE players did hang out at Ponderosa after the final challenge to get back into the game. Wonder if Sandra would have been there relaxing the whole time or if she's out traveling around the region.

[skybolt]

Is anyone else as underwhelmed with the fire token menu as I am.? Don't get me wrong, I'm glad they're not able to buy an idol on the fly. However, with advantages being sent from EoE, will a group of people really combine their tokens (5 needed) to buy a tarp? Same thing with the steal a reward. Maybe on a regular season I can see an alliance of 4 keeping the 1 outcast from getting food at the reward challenge to keep them weak for the upcoming challenge, but would be a petty move on an All Winners season, even for the family visit (you could lose a vote that way). The 2 fire tokens needed to send a note to someone on EoE will likely only come into play prior to the final tribal council. For instance, if there's no use for them anymore, you might as well send a note to try and convince someone to vote for you by justifying your move (s). That could actually backfire as well if you single out 1 or 2 players and the rest find out.

[AncientNewbie]

21 hours ago, simplyme said:

For an in-depth read on it: 

Keeping it Real: How the FCC Fights Fake Reality Shows with 47 U.S.C. 509, 22 CHAP. L. REV. 369 (2019).

https://www.chapman.edu/law/_files/publications/clr-vol-22/12brietigam_online.pdf

 

OT, but huge thanks as now when my boss asks what I'm doing from home currently, "reading a law review article" is truthful.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, peachmangosteen said:

See, I was assuming they'd still be on the jury. In all honestly, it'd probably just be whatever they decided in the moment lol. I kinda hope someone leaves EoE now just so we can see what happens with that.

OK, I nominate Wendell. Take one for the team, buddy!

[skybolt]

7 minutes ago, tracyscott76 said:

OK, I nominate Wendell. Take one for the team, buddy!

If Wendell quits and goes to Ponderosa by himself (assuming Sandra is not there anymore), will Michelle vote herself out? 🙂

[Jobiska]

On 4/1/2020 at 9:06 PM, Rachel RSL said:

I was hoping for Yul or Natalie but I don’t mind Tyson coming back.

This was my exact preference order--maybe with Ethan and Tyson tied.  

I hadn't noticed that Sophie was more covered up during the challenge, but I think that despite that her previous chill-to-the-bone did her chances in before she even got started.  However I did notice that the two men that lasted were, other than Wendell, the only ones that had pants that covered their thigh.  Nick had long chino-type pants I think, and Jeremy had long cargo shorts.  I'm suspecting that in such a downpour skin-on-pole was pretty slick; the pants proved more friction (Wendell had what looked like jeans, whose twill weave was probably less friction-y than the other two).  I think they all should have a chance to have the same clothes if it might affect their performance!

I know Denise clung on without pants, but she's light and wiry and compact, and doesn't have elephant feet (hat tip to Yul), so that's how she succeeded.

Sophie's quiet "I'm still voting for Wendell" was to me a subtle clue as to why the votes played out as they did.  If Yul doesn't come back, she's my favorite (and I've always liked her and always remembered her, which seems uncommon).

Edited to add:  Someone voice-overed at the merge feast about all the preexisting relationships being like "strands of spaghetti" and I had to pause to laugh at the memory of the "cloth of spaghetti" of some seasons ago.

Edited April 3, 2020 by Jobiska

[EllenB]

Nick's arrival in those clips reminds me of Donkey's big nose getting between Fiona and Shrek: "Are we there yet?"

(Sorry, binge-watched Shrek movies recently.)

[LizBug]

I keep hoping that the "powers that be" allow more clothing on future seasons.  I'm tired of seeing people in their underwear ... men and women.

[kstar821]

On 4/4/2020 at 3:07 PM, DallasGypsy said:

I keep hoping that the "powers that be" allow more clothing on future seasons.  I'm tired of seeing people in their underwear ... men and women.

This!  I frequently rewatch the first 10-15 seasons because, well, they're better.

Most of the women are in cargo shorts and sports bras!  Bring this back, please!

[skybolt]

A couple of other thoughts regarding Sophie. This may have been mentioned before, but at tribal council did she refer to herself as a 12-year old girl still in high school? It wouldn't surprise me if she skipped a couple of grades.

Also, going back to her strategic play, her questioning of Denise about the Sandra vote-out was vital to her overall game and future voting strategy. A.) she obviously wanted to put a big target on Denise's back as a strategic player and B.) she wanted to confirm whether or not Tony and Kim remained loyal to the old Dakal tribe. 

In a less threatening way, she's sort of playing a similar game to Rob on Redemption Island. Sophie obviously picked Wendell as the instigator in Yul's ousting and decided to target him. However, she's smart enough to know that she still needs numbers moving forward to dictate the vote, which is why she's still holding out hope for Nick as someone she can work with in the future. She basically has zero interest in working with Jeremy, Denise, Michelle and Tyson. Adam is being kept around as someone to be fed to the lions at some point. Ben is not a former Dakal player, but I can see her wanting to keep him around until the very end, because he'll likely get minimal votes from his old Sele tribe, since they don't trust him.

I like the fact that Sophie is playing somewhat of an old school game, which is trusting in your alliance and thinking several steps ahead. This is in contrast to Nick's play in getting rid of Yul because he's too strategic, while there were still 11 players left. That shortsighted move is definitely backfiring on him now. 

 

[skybolt]

One thing I like to keep track of is how many times players remaining in the game are blindsided by a vote for the person going home. This does not include someone on the wrong side of the vote saving themselves via an idol. As far as I'm concerned, it's not good for your game if you constantly find yourself blindsided by the vote. Here's a current tally of the blindsides per each of the 11 remaining players:

Tyson - 1 (when he was voted out)

Tony - 0 (he was on the right side of the vote, but Denise played the idols).

Jeremy - 1 (Natalie vote)

Kim - 0 (she received votes, but did vote for Amber

Sophie - 0

Sarah - 0

Nick - 1 (Wendell vote out)

Adam - 1 (did not vote for Ethan)

Ben - 0 (surprisingly)

Michelle - 2 (Wendell and Natalie). Technically it's 3 but her vote in the Parvati vote out was strategic.

Denise - 0

Not a good sign for Michelle that she's been left in the dark twice. If we want to expand this to who else was surprised after the tribal council vote out, we can add Kim and Tony to this mix. I assume that Denise was also worried with the Natalie vote out, while Sophie and Sarah were relatively hopeful with the Rob vote out. Surprisingly, I think Ben is the only person who has been pretty confident he's not going home at every tribal council. Kim was confident during the Sandra vote out, but was sweating the Amber one.

[AncientNewbie]

1 hour ago, skybolt said:

I think Ben is the only person who has been pretty confident he's not going home at every tribal council.

A broken Dunning-Kruger Effect is still right twice a day?

[skybolt]

I realize that Jeremy has to play his advantage before voting takes place at tribal council. However, can he still get up and leave if Sarah decides to play her steal a vote? 

[cleo]

...

Edited April 8, 2020 by cleo

[Nashville]

On 4/7/2020 at 1:05 PM, skybolt said:

I realize that Jeremy has to play his advantage before voting takes place at tribal council. However, can he still get up and leave if Sarah decides to play her steal a vote? 

Kind of an apples and oranges issue there:

• Sarah has a Steal-A-VOTE power, not a Steal-An-ADVANTAGE power - so it’s not like Sarah’s exercise of her advantage grants any control over Jeremy’s exercise of his advantage.
• Likewise, Jeremy would leave before the vote ever occurred so he would never cast a vote that TC - therefore Jeremy’s exercise of his advantage would present nothing for Sarah to steal.

tl;dr: Jeremy’s advantage is bulletproof to Sarah’s advantage - provided Jeremy uses it.

[skybolt]

20 hours ago, Nashville said:

Kind of an apples and oranges issue there:

• Sarah has a Steal-A-VOTE power, not a Steal-An-ADVANTAGE power - so it’s not like Sarah’s exercise of her advantage grants any control over Jeremy’s exercise of his advantage.
• Likewise, Jeremy would leave before the vote ever occurred so he would never cast a vote that TC - therefore Jeremy’s exercise of his advantage would present nothing for Sarah to steal.

tl;dr: Jeremy’s advantage is bulletproof to Sarah’s advantage - provided Jeremy uses it.

Jeremy's advantage could potentially nullify Sarah's advantage if she decided to steal his vote. By Jeremy getting up and walking out, this move could actually backfire on Sarah, since she would have one less vote than what she counted on at tribal. 

[skybolt]

I'm definitely not a fan of Ben and thought that production gave him his win with the fire making challenge. That being said, I do give him a lot of credit this season for hustling and playing a more social game. He's involved in practically every conversation in and around camp and is always aware of who's getting voted off. He initially created bonds with the old school tribe (especially with Ethan), but also made a good connection with Denise, and switched to her side when it mattered. After the tribe swap, he seamlessly created bonds with Sophie and Sarah, while Adam was on the outs. After the merge, all of a sudden he's buddy buddy with Tony, Jeremy and Tyson. He still makes some dumb moves like arguing with Adam or talking about finding idols for others at tribal, but I have to give him credit for socializing with basically everyone on the island. If he makes it to the final 3, no one on the jury can say that he never bothered to talk to them once.

Is he playing the best game thus far, of course not. However, I would still put him ahead of Michelle and Nick. Michelle has been blindsided by way too many vote outs, while Nick failed to create bonds in the beginning of the game, and then made the catastrophic move of turning on the Dakal tribe by voting out Yul. Him asking people to join his side while he's at the bottom, is a bit too little too late at this point. I really like Sophie's game, but my worry is that she's too behind the scenes for an all winner's season, to get the jury vote. If she makes it to the final 3 with strong allies like Sarah and ?, will the jury recognize her game play? Unfortunately, she doesn't have the preexisting relationships like Kim (even if Kim's game has been more low key). 

Going back to Ben, one argument that can be made against him is that none of the people getting voted out have given him their fire tokens. This could be a bad omen, especially combined with jury members laughing at him at tribal. His shot at winning this game remain extremely low, but just wanted to give him a shout out for at least trying to play the game and making bonds.