AzureOwl

Palermo is a three and a half hour drive from Taormina. It is logical for Portia to bring her passport along for what is supposed to be a trip of a couple of days that far away from her hotel, even if they were planning to come back. Tanya and Portia's trip to Palermo wasn't a day trip like the ones the Di Grassos were taking. This was going 2/3 of the way across the island for multiple days,

You're assuming Quentin has the connections for an actual hitman. Everything we saw on screen leads me to believe that Niccolò was exactly what Quentin said he was: Quentin's drug dealer / gigolo, and that Quentin hired him to do the actual killing because a) nobody in Quentin's group had the balls to actually do the deed, and b) he was the only actual criminal they actually knew. Jack's talk of dangerous people Portia shouldn't mess with was just that... talk. They're just a bunch of broke patrician expats playing at being criminal masterminds in a Patricia Highsmith novel. When you think about it, all the holes people on this threat have been poking in Greg & Quentin's scheme are actually good writing. None of these people is a career criminal, so of course their plans is riddled with problems that might get them caught.

Since Greg´s alibi is that he was called away for work, he is probably in the US. There is no reason for a BLM official to have any business in Europe.

My guess is that plan A was to get her drunk and drown her near the hotel, to make it look like an accident. Niccolo's bag was probably plan B in case the "make it look like an accident route" became inviable. You're assuming Tanya has any other heirs. If she has no children or sibling/nephews/nieces, what competing heirs would there be? Also, the "slayer's rule" only applies if the murdering spouse is found out. We don't know how much of a communications trail Quentin and Greg left that the Italian police can discover.

They need her body to be found. Otherwise Greg has to wait 7 years for her to be declared legally dead and access her fortune. I think the plan was to get her drunk or drugged and drown her near the hotel. And that the gun, rope, etc. was backup.

If the plan was to kill her, I don't think Quentin would've sent the literal fuckboy to do it. He would've gotten another associate of the guy that was going to do Tanya in.

I don't think so. As Greg's reaction shows in retrospect, Portia's presence in Sicily was not part of the plan and everything relating to her was probably improvised. The fact that they waited until they were within sight of the White Lotus in Taormina instead of simply killing her in the yacht and dumping her body in the Ionian leads me to believe that the idea was for Tanya's death to look like an accidental drowning. Which makes sense. The last thing Greg wants is for Tanya's body to disappear without a trace. He would have to wait 7 years for her to be declared legally dead and access her millions. Greg needs to the body to be found. Doubtful. He was shot in the lung and spent the entire night bleeding out. It would be a miracle if he survived.

So it was murder after all, not blackmail. And we get confirmation that Alessio wasn't a pimp. He's just an employee of another hotel.

It has to be b). There is no possible way for Harper to have timed things in a way that prevented Ethan from arriving right in the middle of them fucking. With the door latched it doesn't matter when Ethan arrives, he will jump to the same conclusion all the same.

Cameron already tipped his hand on that. He wants Ethan to give him information so they can do some good old fashioned insider trading. Ooh! Good catch!

Another thing I just realized is that we can cross off Isabella from the possible deaths. If his fiancé was found dead Rocco wouldn't have been so calm.

I chalked that up to him being a bit senile. I would assume that there would be an infidelity clause in the prenup, put in by her lawyers to protect her, but that such clauses tend to be reciprocal. As in that the prenup says "If one of the parties cheats" instead of "if Greg cheats".

Definitively. Alessio's behavior makes not sense for a real pimp. He would be going after Cameron and Ethan, instead of potentially scaring off the Di Grassos, who have proven to be reliably paying customers.

Yes! It most definitively was! I'm thinking my theory was right!

Why not? Who else would get it? Tanya doesn't appear to have any kids or close family, and she certainly isn't the type to leave it all to charities. And even if the prenup only assigns him say 10%, that's still 50 million dollars. Don't recall. But he does work for the Bureau of Land Management, which is a cowboy adjacent occupation if I ever heard one. I definitively think she made him up. She only started mentioning him when she started dealing with the infatuated dumbass with delusions of being a white knight. That doesn't fit with the friendly manner she greeted him in her very first scene. I just went back and checked. When Lucia catches up with Mia, Mia is moping about someone named Massimo, Lucia drags her to see the boat come in and along the way Lucia greets Alessio in passing. ETA: One additional point I just thought off that makes it unlikely that Alessio is Lucia's pimp is that by this point he would be the one trying to collected the money owed from Cameron, not Lucia.