I agree with you about the “all-in” but I think he’d actually go far in most games he plays in your 100000 simulations for two big reasons:
1) The luck factor should even out over the course of the statistical samples and those that benefited from some good luck would get some bad, and those with some bad would get some good.
In other words, we have to factor out luck in the same way that a large statistical sample would automatically do – and by luck I mean anything that affects the outcome but in which the player has no influence or control over, whether it’s picking buffs out of a hat, or a key ally getting medivaced etc. For example, by my calculation, the chance that Yau Man would be screwed again by a twist that eliminated Michelle is only 1/9 * 1/29 (or once in every 261 simulations) so his overall record should improve with multiple simulations. On the flip side, Kim say, is very unlikely to again benefit from the opposing tribe going to tribal despite winning immunity (through no doing of her own whatsoever) since it has only occurred once in 29 seasons and if it does occur again then it is her tribe that’s going to be filled with buffoons and does it, undermining her game. (Heads or tails evening out in the long run to 50:50).
In the case of BRob specifically, he’s actually been a pretty unlucky player. Heck, even in TAR, after dominating his season - most legs won (5), highest average placing (11 legs in the top 3) - he ended up getting a shitty cab driver for the last leg while the decidedly average Uchenna and Joyce lucked out on a superb one. Anyways:
In ASS, out of all the possible permutations with 10 players left, the chance that Amber and only Amber would be swapped was miniscule. If there had been no swap or if it had been anybody else other than Amber being swapped, he wouldn’t have made the two deals (one with Lex and one with Alicia as his backup plan) that directly cost him their two votes. BRob wins ASS, easily.
In the Marquesas, the swap was a disaster not because it put him badly down in numbers (although that certainly wasn’t good, but since his tribe were down in numbers going in, that was statistically probable –not bad luck) but because it also left the Rotu 4 completely intact (which was statistically highly improbable). If any of the Rotu 4 had been split up with one or more of Kathy/Paschal/Neleh remaining, it most likely would have been a completely different ball game even with the numbers disadvantage.
In HvV, the Heroes couldn’t win a challenge when the BRob and Tyson were in the game while the Villains couldn’t win one without them. (Actual number was villains win 7/9 before and 1/5 after). The crucial turning point of the game – Tyson voting himself off- is well remembered by all. However, what people forget is that the villains should not have been at tribal at all because they won the preceding challenge. It occurred because of an idiot twist where both teams had to vote off a tribe member. They did not lose a challenge - a precondition for a team going to tribal in what, I don’t know, maybe 180-200 of the pre-merge tribals before and since in 29 seasons? Without that twist, BRob and Tyson would almost certainly have made the merge and the merge numbers would probably be something like 8 villains/2 heroes. What happens then is anybody’s guess but if we accord that twist with its correct distribution in a simulation - say once or twice every 100 tribals,- the chances of BRob making it to the merge if he is in a “strong in challenges tribe” is extremely high.
Which brings us to challenges…
2) IMO, Boston Rob is the best challenge asset in the game, ever. Unlike many other challenge beasts who excel only in their specific leg of a challenge, Boston Rob not only does that (and is probably also the most well rounded – including puzzles) but brings out the best of the entire team as well. Examples vs other "highly rated" challenge performers.
Strength challenge vs James (and or Tom)
HvV: Make stairway with huge heavy cubes. BRob not only does most of the heavy lifting but solves the puzzle as he is doing it. Villains gushing with praise, Tyson says, “we need you, man, we really need you.” Meanwhile, Tom on the other team is looking completely befuddled while James does very little lifting and uses most of his energy yelling at Steph to “shut up, Shut up!”
Agility/sports vs JT
In the catch the slingshot ball challenge, JT is all kinds of heroic even loses a tooth trying to make a catch. His team loses. When BRob had this same challenge in RI, he specifically instructs Nat to fire short to Grant and Grant only, meanwhile he would act as a “free safety” in the entire backfield (not just his own pole) to compensate for the mismatches in other positions e.g. Ashley vs Mansweater. Grant catches 4 balls, while of the opposition balls, BRob swats away 4 and intercepts 1 for a perfect 5-0 victory. Ability + team strategy trumps ability alone every time.
Water challenge vs Ozzie
In ASS, there was a challenge when players had to dive down to a boat, remove 2000lbs of ballast to bring the boat up, bail the water out and paddle the boat back to the finish line. As the boats come up to the surface everyone starts furiously bailing with buckets… except Chapera. BRob tells his team to haul the boat up upside down onto the platform and even instructs Amber to sit atop the back to prevent it from flipping over prematurely. Only then do they flip it over and, in so doing, clear the water completely from the boat in one shot without having to bail at all. Chapera wins by a huge margin. Ozzie in such a situation may have dived a little faster (and even that is questionable considering that BRob prime could outswim Colby, Lex, Ethan and so-called fisherman king Rupert) and help them that way but Ozzie doesn’t have the ability to come up with the huge winning strategy for the team that BRob does pretty consistently and would just be cussing out the team for not bailing/paddling fast enough when they lose.
The point being that while there are many players who are great at challenges individually (including BRob himself), in terms of team contribution he is IMO, by far, the best. In a schoolyard pick, I’d take him first every time. Specifically, this makes him very valuable to keep to the merge, whereas for others who are only individual challenge threats, that’s a good reason to get them out before the merge.
Methinks BRob's average placing in 100000 runs is going to be pretty darn high.
ETA: Yikes! sorry for the wall of text.